Assessing the Luis Arraez for Pablo López Trade

[Matthew Taylor]

On Friday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins agreed to trade all-star first baseman, Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins in exchange for right-handed starting pitcher Pablo López and two prospects. While it’s sad to see Arraez go, the Twins’ front office deserves credit for making an excellent deal.

Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

After the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last week, it quickly became apparent that there was a logjam in the infield and that a move would have to be made. Logically the name that made the most sense for a trade was Luis Arraez. After rumors swirled for weeks about the mutual interest between the Twins and Marlins, the two teams finally came to an agreement.

Luis Arraez is no-doubt an elite contact hitter, one of the best to ever put on a Twins uniform. Arraez’s elite contact skills helped to prop up a slumping offense all summer for the Twins in 2022. The Rod Carew comps, while lofty, are not exaggerated when it comes to Luis Arraez. He is a hitting savant who will always put together a good at-bat, and almost never strike out.

Arraez isn’t without his flaws, though. While an elite contact hitter, Arraez lacks much of any power at all with his left-handed bat, which severely limits his overall upside as an elite player. Additionally, Arraez has consistently struggled with knee issues and has gone from an all-around utility player to a first baseman/designated hitter.

Because of the flaws noted above, it has been a question of how much value Luis Arraez could bring back in a trade. Over the countless weeks of trade speculation between the Twins and Marlins, there was talk about López for Arraez being an even swap trade, or even that the Minnesota Twins might need to toss in prospects to make the deal work. As the trade details came in, though, the trade was much more favorable to the Twins than anyone imagined, with the Twins not throwing in prospects of their own, but instead receiving multiple prospects. 

Pablo López isn’t a perfect pitcher by any means. His stuff doesn’t look like the stuff of an ace, and he has tended to wear down in the second half of seasons, but at 26 years old, López will slot right into the top of the rotation with Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle heading into 2023. A young (26 years old), affordable (set to earn $5.5M in 2023) and controllable (under team control through next season) starting pitcher is the exact kind of pitcher that Derek Falvey likes to go after (think Tyler Mahle). 

In addition to López, the Twins acquired a fringe top-100 prospect in José Salas and another prospect in Byron Chourio. (For more on Salas and Chourio, click here.) 

This trade was a slam dunk trade for the Twins’ front office for three reasons. 

First, they are doing what you always want to do in trades, selling high on their player. Luis Arraez just won the American League batting title, appeared in the most games in his career, and posted a career high in fWAR. There’s a good chance that Arraez’s value will never be higher than it is right now and cashing in on that value is really smart.

Secondly, the Twins traded from a position of strength (infield bat) and acquired a position of need (starting pitcher). They managed to find a trade partner that had a weakness in the Twins’ area of strength and thus dealt from a position of power. With rumors swirling for weeks about the framework of an Arraez/López trade, it's easy to connect the dots and see that the Twins knew they were holding the better hand and could hold out for the Marlins to toss in more assets, like they ultimately ended up doing.

Finally, the Twins made a slam dunk trade because they were able to recoup some of the value that they lost in 2022 when they traded away prospect depth in Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, among others. With this deal, the Twins have added a B and C-level prospect to replenish the farm and give them more trade ammo for down the road.

It’s impossible to write a Luis Arraez trade reaction piece without talking about how big of a bummer it is to lose Luis Arraez. While I write about baseball in an era of advanced metrics and numbers, it’s impossible for me to not get caught up in the emotion of baseball and no player on the Twins encompassed the emotion of baseball and love of the game quite like Luis Arraez. Luis was a true throwback player who was a joy to watch and had more fun than anyone and losing a player like that is hard.

How would you assess the Arraez trade? Leave a comment and start the conversation! Be sure to keep coming back to Twins Daily for lots more trade reactions and content over the coming days.

 

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[PDX Twin]

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

[Muppet]

4 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

But if Gallo’s 30 hits next year, 15 of them will be home runs. Arraez only hit 9 last year and 15 is more than 9. That math works right?

[HerbieFan]

Agree on all counts Matthew

[USAFChief]

Couldn't it just as well be said:

"(Miami) are doing what you always want to do in trades, selling high on their player"

There's as much reason to believe Lopez is at peak value as Arraez. Probably more.

[Doctor Gast]

It's hard to trade a player like Arraez but we needed a front-line pitcher and this was time to make a trade like this. Lopez is rated as a middle #2 SP, while S Gray is rated at low#2/ high #3. So Lopez should be our best SP going into the season. Salas & Chourio helps to restock our farm system with 2 athletic 2 way prospects.

[MN_ExPat]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Couldn't it just as well be said:

"(Miami) are doing what you always want to do in trades, selling high on their player"

There's as much reason to believe Lopez is at peak value as Arraez. Probably more.

You could say that.  I don't believe that to be the case though.

[UpstateNewYorker]

Interesting take on the trade from SI.com: https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/01/20/luis-arraez-trade-pablo-lopez-twins-marlins

[jmlease1]

It's an interesting trade. Lopez is a good pitcher and this rotation looks pretty deep now and well positioned to absorb injury. Salas is a really interesting prospect who could turn out to be something interesting. He hit well last year in low A, struggled more in high A. He's only 19, so who knows. 

I'll really miss Arraez though. Fun player to watch, but I think it's fair to look at last season and think "this might be the best it's going to be for Arraez". The knees are a real worry, it's hard to see him adding any additional power, and he's not a particularly good hitter against LHP. We'll see how he holds up at 2B for the Fish. If he does, and hits like he did last season, they're going to be very happy. If he can't hold up at 2B, gets hurt, or hits more like 2021...

[baul0010]

30 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

You must not have watched the last two months of the season.  Arraez didn't strike out... But also didn't do anything else.  He squeaked his way into a batting title because Judge couldn't buy a home run or hit either.  

[GV14218]

55 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

Relax. Joey Gallo won’t be the only player on the field this season. Watch some other ones.

[David Maro]

Let's hope this works out for the Twins,and aren't looking at another pitcher with TJ needed. Where are the hits going to come from with this lineup. The team average without Arraez is 220-225. The team with him 240-245,which is still below average. Pitching is needed,but if the team can't hit what good is it. Tired of watching a team that looks to hit homeruns only and a manager who thinks that OK.

 

 

[smiglewski]

Losing Arraez is, of course, a really big bummer. Hearing about what he's like as a teammate and his approach to hitting is really, really incredible. BUT, the rest of his on-field metrics are difficult to look at, and I can't imagine it necessarily felt good to trade him.

Sure, Lopez isn't an ace, but Arraez wasn't an MVP either. Looking at what the starting pitching rotation will be this year versus last? My god, it isn't even close. Better to have five "number three" starters than two of them plus whatever one considers Archer and Bundy.

Judging by the reaction by both Twins and Marlins fans (both fanbases clearly not all that stoked), this seems to have been a relatively fair trade, if not slightly better for the Twins.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Luis Arraez is one of my absolute favorite Twins ever.  I hate the fact that he won't be playing for the Twins anymore.

That being said, I think this is a fantastic trade.  Aside from the generic "you can't ever have too much pitching", which is true of course, the Twins are a better hitting team than pitching -- and may still be so after this trade.  Lopez is a pitcher in the same class as Gray and Mahle and whether he slots in as #1, #2, or #3 is irrelevant.  He makes the team better and that's what any trade is really all about. 

We are trading two years of Arraez for two years of Lopez, which I think is a good trade -- pitching is usually harder to get than hitting.  The final year of controllable Arraez is being traded for one excellent prospect (top 100ish) and one good looking prospect who is miles away from the majors, which is also reasonable.

Untalked about here and elsewhere is that if Arraez had collected four less hits this season, Aaron Judge would have won the triple crown and Luis Arraez would have just been a "good hitter Luis Arraez" and not "American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez."  Perception matters a lot and it probably contributes greatly to the value it brought back in this trade.  I think there is a good chance that Arraez wins another batting title, but I still think this was a good trade.

[MMMordabito]

I'm still handing the ball to Joe Cool on Opening Day, but Lopez is a good addition.  I really hate losing Arraez, because his PAs were often the highlights of any game.  The FO was smart to sell high on Arraez instead of selling low on Kepler at this point.  

[sftwinsfan]

Interesting trade, it appears the Twins got the better part of the deal, but a little weary. Lopez is a solid pitcher, but last year was the first time he's gone above around 111 innings and jumped all the way to 180 innings. I really hope we don't see a scenario where he makes 5 starts then suddenly is largely done until he's a free agent. Risk you largely have to take with pitching I guess. The rotation looks the deepest it's been for quite some time. With the huge layoff and prior experience as a bullpen weapon I wonder if they'll consider moving Maeda to the bullpen which could really shore that group up. 

Only issue now is this lineup seems pretty iffy to me. Arraez was one of the few guys that took good at bats and could deliver a hit when they needed it. They could be hard to watch outside of the top of the lineup. Of course, maybe this means they're confident Kirilloff's wrist issue may be behind him now? He could be a guy that if healthy, could make up for the loss of Arraez in the lineup. At least this roster is looking a lot better than it did a few weeks ago. 

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, sftwinsfan said:

Interesting trade, it appears the Twins got the better part of the deal, but a little weary. Lopez is a solid pitcher, but last year was the first time he's gone above around 111 innings and jumped all the way to 180 innings. I really hope we don't see a scenario where he makes 5 starts then suddenly is largely done until he's a free agent. Risk you largely have to take with pitching I guess. The rotation looks the deepest it's been for quite some time. With the huge layoff and prior experience as a bullpen weapon I wonder if they'll consider moving Maeda to the bullpen which could really shore that group up. 

Only issue now is this lineup seems pretty iffy to me. Arraez was one of the few guys that took good at bats and could deliver a hit when they needed it. They could be hard to watch outside of the top of the lineup. Of course, maybe this means they're confident Kirilloff's wrist issue may be behind him now? He could be a guy that if healthy, could make up for the loss of Arraez in the lineup. At least this roster is looking a lot better than it did a few weeks ago. 

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

[stringer bell]

We've heard over and over that an ace is needed to win. I also know that it would be cool to see the Twins have the better of a starting pitching matchup between 60 and 70 percent of the time. Adding another guy who is solid and a candidate to throw a high quality start each time out makes sense to me. 

Arraez is a good player overall and a real asset in the batter's box. The Marlins announced after the trade that they would move their second baseman to center field, opening a spot for Luis. I think he'll be fine for the Marlins and would be one of the top candidates to win a batting championship in the NL next year. 

The Twins' lineup still has question marks and subtracting their top percentage hitter won't help that. There's talent there that might make us forget that they traded Arraez, but that talent mostly has been stymied by injury. Imagine Buxton healthy for 90% of the season, Kirilloff and Larnach living up to the potential they've hinted at and been projected to produce. 

 

[PDX Twin]

https://www.startribune.com/twins-trade-luis-arraez-batting-craftsman-doesnt-set-well-patrick-reusse/600245265/

Says is all, and well.

[Dman]

I have to say I am a bit surprised that Miami had to give essentially double the value for Arraez but they gave up things that shouldn't hurt them that bad and they literally got the American League Batting champion.  We didn't really get an ace and we only got two years of Lopez so I guess the difference needed to be made up somewhere.  It would have been pretty hard for Miami to find a better player for the deal they gave the Twins IMO.

That being said the Twins needed another solid pitcher to make sure this team can compete with the Guardians and White Sox and it looks like Lopez was the most attainable.  If the Twins can't resign him after two years there is a good chance they at least get a comp pick for him leaving granted the same should be true for Miami and Arraez.  I know Luis's knee's can give him trouble but Miami is getting a guy that can work counts and hits well with men on base.  They got what they needed and they have a lot of good arms coming up and got value for Lopez who they could afford to lose.  Once those Miami fans see Luis in action they will be happy with this trade.

Getting Lopez helps buy the Twins time for the pithing pipeline to produce some quality arms.  Next year they would still have Ryan, Ober, Paddack and now Lopez.  With Winder, Varland, SWR and Maybe Balazovich in the wings they get time to let them develop and see what they have.  It also gives time for Enlow, Headrick, Festa and Maybe Raya to be possible rotation pieces in 2024 or 2025.  So the trade helps but two years is not that long.

Getting a near top 100 Prospect in Jose Salas was a nice get.  I would have prefered pitching but a possible star player at short or third or Center is still helpful given all the prospects we had traded away recently.  They also got to hedge that bet with another interesting international signee Chourio who looks like he has good plate discipline, speed and only really lacks power at this time.  If those two or even one of them make it that gives the Twins another 6 controllable years of an asset and I like the odds for both players.

I think the OP has it right.  This trade worked for both teams as one really needed a solid hitter and the other a solid pitcher.  Hopefully this is one of those win, win deals.

[DocBauer]

The only way I can address this is to abbreviate and combine a couple of previous posts.

Arraez might be my favorite Twins player. And I've argued at length over and over that there are many ways to build a lineup. I've never had a problem with Areaez playing predominantly 1B/DH and being a special and unique bat who fits in the #1 hole and being a clutch hitter. There is no reason, in today's game, where your power and run production can't come from the other 8 spots! You just don't HAVE to have a powerful 1B/DH to have a quality, productive lineup with the way baseball has changed over the years. 

Adding a quality, young arm with at least some upside, is never a bad decision. I'm not crazy about only 2yrs of control, or a pitcher who's never topped 21 GS until 2022. Does that mean he's just reaching his prime? Or does 2022 turn out to be the outlier? I'm betting, talent and age, he's probably just coming in to his own. He's got a good career WHIP, but only a 8.6K per 9 which would seem to indicate he's not going to develop into a #1 at any time. But that doesn't mean he's not a good pitcher with upside! 

For the NOW of the trade, I'm dismissing the addition of the prospects, even though there might be some potential excitement there.

Leaving emotion out of the equation of losing perhaps my favorite player, the pure logic of adding another quality arm is hard to dismiss. Unfortunately, the loss of Arraez opens up the question of who bats #1, and who plays 1B if Kirilloff doesn’t turn out to be healthy and be the primary 1B? There almost has to be another move made to the roster still. Even a healthy AK has the Twins player roster at 11 guys you can write in with ink. And that INCLUDES the Twins keeping Kepler, who's been rumored to be moved for weeks.  Again, there pretty much HAS to be at least 1 more move made to the player roster. 

Part of the problem losing Arraez NOW is that it's questionable that the players who might replace his bat are ready to do so. But the reality is that by 2024 the Twins INF, they were looking at Miranda, Correa, Polanco, AK, Arraez, AND Lewis, Lee, Martin and Julien. SOMEONE was going to be moved at some point, either now or next year. Even with Martin probably moving to the OF, and Lewis as a POSSIBLE OF move, SOMEONE was going to get moved. It turns out, it's Arraez NOW for a SP. That's just the reality. 

My emotions say I'm bummed and depressed that Arraez is gone. The logical, amateur GM in my head saw Areaez being moved eventually, with the projected 2024 "crunch" of other players that probably have more pure athletic talent and future projection. So I'm bummed as can be, but I can see the logic of the move and future projections and the add of a quality SP.

But this move needs to be followed up to make it really work. There's room to add another BP piece, but somehow, they need to add another bat somehow. Even then, the player portion of the roster still would have a hole left. Is that Garlick when a couple arms get moved to the 60 man? Larnach csn be a swap for Kepler. Or does this leave room for a prospect who has a great ST? 

The amateur/fan GM in me says I wouldn't have done this deal, and trust in what I had and the young depth and add a pen piece. The logical, practical GM in me says adding a quality SP and trusting in all of my young position player talent makes this trade pretty smart.

The fan in me is HURTING! The logical part of me says this could be really smart as long as we're not done adding yet.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's hard to trade a player like Arraez but we needed a front-line pitcher and this was time to make a trade like this. Lopez is rated as a middle #2 SP, while S Gray is rated at low#2/ high #3. So Lopez should be our best SP going into the season. Salas & Chourio helps to restock our farm system with 2 athletic 2 way prospects.

Doc, Who rated Lopez higher than Gray?

[MTV]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

Doubt it, firstly they’d move someone to the pen and option down a reliever. I think Gray and Kepler are about to go, we still need another strong bat, a RH OF and a High-End Relief Pitcher to make a serious push this year, and Gray and Kepler seem like enough to get those trades done.

[Beast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

I don’t like that.  He’s only good for so many innings a year.  When he’s healthy he’s good.  I’d rather they not waste them in AAA.

None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings.  Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3.  We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year:  

Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings.  I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I will really miss Arraez. I stopped doing everything else and concentrated on the game when he came to bat, He is a joy to watch play the game of baseball. I wish him and his family the very best. I hope he has a great career and earns a ton of money and I hope he is given the respect due the American League Batting Champion for 2022. Good luck Mi Amigo.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, MTV said:

Doubt it, firstly they’d move someone to the pen and option down a reliever. I think Gray and Kepler are about to go, we still need another strong bat, a RH OF and a High-End Relief Pitcher to make a serious push this year, and Gray and Kepler seem like enough to get those trades done.

I was just passing along the info Hayes says the team is telling him. But trading their best pitcher in order to make a push doesn't sound smart to me. We'll see what happens, though. I was simply passing along the reports coming from Hayes.

[Dman]

FWIW Fangraphs really likes this trade for the Twins https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-won-the-trade-that-had-to-happen/ They are pretty high on Salas and feel he is Minnesota's 3rd rated prospect if I read it correctly.  If true that would mean the first 3 players in the top 30 would be shortstops with 6 total in the top 30 (not including Martin).  Seems impossible.  It also would mean that MN has at least in some instances 3 top 100 shortstop prospects. Crazy times, crazy times,

[jrod23]

I'd have preferred Kep and two of our prospects for Lopez, than Arraez for Lopez and two of their prospects.

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Beast said:

I don’t like that.  He’s only good for so many innings a year.  When he’s healthy he’s good.  I’d rather they not waste them in AAA.

None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings.  Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3.  We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year:  

Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings.  I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.

Yeah, my first thought was Ober to the pen for a long relief role as well. 120 over 7 2/3 isn't the expectation of any pitcher in baseball, though. I mean literally none are doing that on a regular basis. To me the move would also be Ober to the pen for a long role and then being the first guy to take a spot start when needed.

I don't expect to see a bunch of 4-5 inning starts, though. I think the expectation will be that Ryan, Gray, Lopez, and Mahle have the chance to go 6 or 7 innings early in the year. Maybe not their first start, but Gray and Ryan were doing 6 or 7 inning starts (despite what some fans would lead you to believe) before Gray got hurt and Ryan got covid. I'm guessing Maeda is on a little shorter of a leash, but he's probably still in line to get 5 or 6 inning starts early. Maybe Mahle is more 5 or 6 innings as well until he shows that shoulder is good. But I hope they still carry a long guy, and I'd use Ober. They started last year with Winder in that role before he got hurt and I hope they just put Ober there this year, and have Winder, SWR, Varland, etc. in AAA as options 7, 8, 9 and so on. 

I agree Ober isn't likely to stay healthy all year, and he's one of our 13 best pitchers to start the year so I'd like him in Minneapolis. But I think fans will be surprised by the length of starts they're asking from this rotation.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

Continuing a FWIW arguement, I wouldn't plan on Maeda for the pen either. Nor would I state it openly were I the Twins and even contemplating it. But we all know there is no linear line where all of your SP are 100% all year. And Ober having options is a good thing for roster flexibility. 

But I think Ober has been sold very short on general opinion. (I know this is conversation and not your opinion). Ober debuted in 2021 and was handled with kid gloves due to previous IP. And he not only performed well in a poor season, but he got better as the season went along. He was even better in 2022 when healthy. Now, was his 2022 injury a repeat of past injury issues? Was it a sudden fluke? Or was he a victim of the weird offseason where he, and others, had ZERO contact with the training/coaching staff AND a short ST? 

No clue as to what upset his 2022 vs his healthy 2021. 

I am ABSOLUTELY NOT comparing him to HOF great Randy Johnson, but he reminds me a bit of him. A tall and long pitcher who took time to find delivery/control. Ober's problem was finding a delivery that WORKED because he felt beat up after a start. That lead to injury. He found success with repetition and his new delivery. I repeat, was 2021 an outlier, or was he just messed up from his groin injury and a weird offseason?

I state again I think the Twins really missed his arm in 2022. And maybe he will might never be a 180IP starter, though we al hope he will be. But his numbers scream he could be at least a quality mid rotation SP. 

And I have no clue how the SP will ultimately work out, performance and injury, temporar moves to the pen, etc, etc, I think it's a HUGE mistake to dismiss Ober as one of the Twins best SP options.

I know this OP is about the Lopez acquisition, and I don't mean to derail conversation, but I felt Ober should be brought in to the OP at this point. He is NOT some dismissal back end option.