Trade Target: Twins Should Say "Hello" to Adell

[Seth Stohs]

The Minnesota Twins are said to be looking for a veteran right-handed outfielder for the 2023 roster. There are still a couple available, but maybe there is a 23-year-old right-handed hitting outfielder that could be available for a very reasonable price that the Twins should acquire in the name of adding talent and athleticism and potential and upside, and lots of key scouting report terms that we like. Maybe you agree. 

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee, USA Today

The Minnesota Twins have been rumored to be looking to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder. The names that have been tossed around have been free agents, over the age of 30, but there might be a young outfielder in need of a change of scenery that the Twins should consider as well, even if only as an opportunistic move. 

Player development is rarely linear. In fact, you could probably argue that it is never linear. It’s much more parabolic with occasional downtrends on the way up the system. For many prospects, the trend line never reaches the goal of the big leagues. Sometimes there are injuries. Sometimes it just takes a little longer to move up to the next level. Sometimes, players develop later. Sometimes they don’t. 

It has been made known that the Twins are looking to add a right-handed hitting outfielder. While they have clearly shown interest in veterans like AJ Pollock and Andrew McCutchen. Just this morning, Adam Duvall signed with the Boston Red Sox. But there just might be a 23-year-old outfielder with a ton of talent and potential that the Twins could acquire for very little. 

Jo Adell was the Los Angeles Angels first-round pick back in 2017. He immediately started flying up the organizational ladder and prospect rankings. Here is a quick look at his statistics by minor-league level: 

• Rookie: .325/.376/.532 (.908)
• Low-A: .326/.398/.611 (1.009)
• High-A: .289/.344/.548 (.891)
• Double-A: .288/.372/.518 (.890)
• Triple-A: .271/.335/.542 (.877) 

Before the 2019 season, he was ranked #6 by Baseball America and #2 by Baseball Prospectus. Before the 2020 season, he was ranked #3 by Baseball America, #2 by Baseball Prospectus, and #6 by MLB Pipeline. 

In the Covid-shortened 2020 season, Adell was performing well at the team’s alternate site, and when there was a need, he made his MLB debut. He was pushed into action well before he was ready and in 38 games, he hit just .161. He played in 35 games for the 2021 Angels and was a bit better. He hit .246/.295/.408 (.703) with five doubles and four homers. Hoping to break out in 2022, Adell really struggled with the Angels in 88 big-league games. He hit just .224/.264/.373 (.636) with 12 doubles and eight homers. 

When he was drafted tenth overall in 2017, scouts from several teams insisted that he could really struggle to make contact in the upper levels. Well, that has certainly been the issue for him with the Angels. He struck out 41.7% of his plate appearances in 2020. He improved that number to a respectable 22% in 2021. But in 2022, he had 107 strikeouts to go with just 11 walks and his K-Rate was back up to 37.5% 

Tom Kelly used to always say that a player needed 1,500 MLB at-bats before you really knew what you had in him. Also, I think Adell may have driven TK crazy. I mean, he thought Rich Becker struck out a lot, and he never struck out more than 25.5% of his plate appearances during a season with the Twins. And Becker walked almost 12% of the time. 

So why would I spend time researching and writing an article on a player who has struggled this much? There are several reasons why I think it’s a gamble worth considering. 

First, he will turn 24 years old in April, so he is very young. He has plenty of time to develop and make some improvements. 

Next, Adell’s tools are elite, incredible. He stands 6-4 and over 220 pounds. He’s very strong, and very fast. He’s got a strong arm. He can hit the ball a long ways. One person I talked to referred to him as an “ultimate showcase player.” Watching him take batting prospects and run and throw is a joy. Simply, it has not yet translated to big-league success for Adell. 

The phrase Change of Scenery is often used to say that a guy clearly has talent but his current team just is not finding a way to pull it out of him… but maybe our favorite team can. That doesn’t always happen, but there certainly are examples. Maybe a new manager. Maybe an organizational philosophy. Maybe a coach that says something to make something click. 

Maybe it’s talking to the right veteran, maybe someone like Byron Buxton who obviously was as highly ranked as a prospect as Adell has been. Things didn’t immediately transfer for Buxton in the big leagues, and he’s continued to have injuries that keep him out of the lineup. But to hear the right things, whatever they may be, from a current All Star who has endured similar struggles might be a benefit. 

And yes, I am aware that with the Angels he has had Mike Trout doing outfield work and taking batting practice with him. But again, new situations, new voices. And hope for different results. 

Maybe it’s hearing from a former player. How many times have we talked about the incredible talent of Torii Hunter. But he wasn’t an immediate success in the big leagues. He made the trip from Triple-A to the big-leagues and back several times. But he kept working, endured, and became an All Star and Gold Glove winner. 

Maybe it’s having the right teammate on his side. The year Adell was taken tenth overall, the Twins selected Royce Lewis with the first overall pick. Lewis and Adell have been good friends since their high school days when they competed with and against each other in national tournaments and showcases. Since, they have participated in the Futures Game and Arizona Fall League together. We know that Lewis is a great leader. We see his positivity and how it affects those around him. Maybe having an old friend around might help his transition to a new team, and maybe relaxing can help him find more success. 

Adell has one option year remaining, so he could spend some time in St. Paul if needed. We have not heard the minor-league coaching assignments yet, but if the Saints coaching staff is similar, with Toby Gardenhire managing and Ryan Smith leading the hitters, I like his chances of improving and making adjustments. 

He is right-handed, and he can really complement the other young left-handed hitters in the Twins outfield such as Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Nick Gordon. He can also play center field if needed. Joey Gallo is only here for one year, so a more permanent, full-time role can be available in 2024. In the short-term, he can be a platoon option. 

From what I have been told, the Angels would definitely be willing to trade him, and the cost may not be real high. They have added several players this offseason, including outfielder Hunter Renfroe and Brett Phillips, and they added infielders Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury (who has spent some time in the outfield). Mike Trout and Taylor Ward are the primary starters along with Renfroe. Playing time with the Angels may be very limited. 

So why acquire an outfielder who another organization has given up on? Well, first, teams claim players at the back of their 40-man roster all year long. 99% of those players are significantly less talented than Jo Adell. And while he has struggled mightily in the big leagues, he is a great athlete with an overflowing toolbox. Whether or not he ever becomes a star, or if he becomes a solid regular, or even if he flops, that’s a risk I would take all the time. And it’s very rare to get that kind of player available for very little. 

The Angels really don’t need position players, but like most teams can use pitching. I really think if they offered something like a B- pitching prospect in Low-A and a C prospect at Double-A, the Angels might very well consider it. 

Older, I mean, more veteran Twins fans like myself may remember a similar player that helped the Twins a few decades ago. Shane Mack was the 11th overall pick out of UCLA in 1984. He had been a great college player and went to the 1984 Olympics. He made his MLB debut with the Padres in 1987 and played some more in 1988. In those two season’s, his OPS+ was 77 (23% below league average). He was injured and in Triple-A in 1989, so the Padres left him available for the Rule 5 draft. 

The Twins selected him, and he played five seasons with the Twins. Overall, he hit .309/.375/.479 (.854) with 119 doubles, 24 triples, and 67 home runs. He also stole 73 bases and played terrific defense, mostly in right field. He was very much instrumental in the Twins 1991 World Series championship, and is often referred to as the most underrated player in Twins history. 

No, I’m not going to tell you that the Adell situation and Mack’s situation 30+ years ago are identical. They were different players, and the game was played differently then. Adell is certainly bigger and stronger than Mack was and he is three years younger now than Mack was going into the 1990 season. The similarities are that they were highly-regarded, highly-drafted players with great tools and athleticism that were unable to put it together with their first team. 

Mack found great success with the Twins for five years. Maybe Adell can experience a similar improvement through a well-timed change of scenery and new voices. I wouldn’t expect him to perform like Shane Mack did, but if he can become a solid everyday player or even a significant role player, that trade could be great. 

If not, the Twins won’t be out a lot. You don’t even have to say he’s the answer to the team’s right-handed outfielder question. I’d be good with taking a flyer on a recent Top 5 global prospect and seeing what happens. The goal is to win, but it should always to continue to acquire talent. He’s a league-minimum salary guy for another couple of years, and he’s got an option remaining. This trade would not stop them from still signing a veteran right-handed hitting outfielder such as Tommy Pham or Jurickson Profar. (Update: Less than two hours later, Tommy Pham signed with the Mets.) 

Low risk… incredibly high reward. 

Your turn. What do you think about Adell? Who would you like to see the Twins acquire as a right-handed outfield option? Comment below. 

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[jjswol]

Seth, I agree 100%. He has not panned out in LA (so far) but I would love to see him get a shot with the Twins. He reminds me if Shane Mack in a way. A change of scenery might be just the thing to get him to the next level. I think he is a risk worth taking, it just depends on what the Angels want in return.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Love it 100%. Make it happen!

[MMMordabito]

I'd do it.  The Twins need to acquire talent anyway they can.

Garlick was outrighted, so they would have a lower ceiling/higher floor fallback option for 2023 anyway.

Would Cole Sands be enough?  The Twins could maybe throw in Steven Cruz or Francis Peguero to push it through.

[mickster]

Great option.   If the price is a Single A or AA  prospect that won't hurt this is a low risk-high reward move that could pay big dividends.

[Matt Braun]

It would be interesting, but man, Adell hasn't hit overly well since his time at AA... in 2019. Yeah, you could level the same critique on a young Torii Hunter---and baseball truisms say that toolsy outfielders take awhile to develop---but he he just might not be it. 

[nicksaviking]

I'd do it. Not because of any Shane Mack comps or because of his prior prospect rankings, but because the Angels are one of those teams that don't seem to do ANYTHING right anymore. So, I'd give him a shot to see if the Angels just messed up.

But zero interest in more 'veteran' bats. This team needs to start filling the 26-man with players who both have potential, and the potential to be here long term. 

[August J Gloop]

I like it. Jo and Larnach can do a 50/50 until Lewis comes back. 

[Seth Stohs]

25 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Love it 100%. Make it happen!

I'll see what I can do... actually, I think writing an article with the pros and cons of it is probably about all I can do... 

[Seth Stohs]

26 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I'd do it.  The Twins need to acquire talent anyway they can.

Garlick was outrighted, so they would have a lower ceiling/higher floor fallback option for 2023 anyway.

Would Cole Sands be enough?  The Twins could maybe throw in Steven Cruz or Francis Peguero to push it through.

I am not sure what the Angels might want or obviously how they might feel about particular prospects. But I would think like Sands and Cruz might have a chance to get it done... 

[Seth Stohs]

13 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

It would be interesting, but man, Adell hasn't hit overly well since his time at AA... in 2019. Yeah, you could level the same critique on a young Torii Hunter---and baseball truisms say that toolsy outfielders take awhile to develop---but he he just might not be it. 

Absolutely true. He may turn it around... or he might not. 

[Dman]

When hit tools are bad count me out.  The Twins had tons of time to help change Sano and it never happened.  That is why hit tool is the number one thing to go for in the draft without it you can't make the team.  I guess if the price was nominal why not but more than likely he is who he is at the plate and that is why the Angels would be willing to move on.  Twins need more pitching lottery tickets too so wouldn't be thrilled if that is what it took to get him.  With the Twins this desperate for right handed bats I guess I could see it but I doubt it works out.

[Major League Ready]

It took Carlos Gomez 5 years to figure it out.   Adell has a little over 1 year of service time.  Point being he would not be the 1st to turn it around but how long will it take?

[joemama]

Good idea; O'dell certainly has upside and a potential "been there" mentor in Buxton. It's all about the asking price. Like Dman, I wouldn't give much in the way of pitching prospects. And I assume Falvey & Levine are inquiring with most teams about potential trades involving RH-hitting OFs.

[Steve71]

No problem talking to the Halos about him, but it all comes down to the price.

What about Kepler for Adell plus a lottery pick type of minor leaguer, an actual draft pick or some international signing pool money?

[Seth Stohs]

39 minutes ago, Dman said:

When hit tools are bad count me out.  The Twins had tons of time to help change Sano and it never happened.  That is why hit tool is the number one thing to go for in the draft without it you can't make the team.  I guess if the price was nominal why not but more than likely he is who he is at the plate and that is why the Angels would be willing to move on.  Twins need more pitching lottery tickets too so wouldn't be thrilled if that is what it took to get him.  With the Twins this desperate for right handed bats I guess I could see it but I doubt it works out.

Holy... if he could become as good as Sano was, then getting him would be GREAT! Dude was able to carry the offense for months at a time. 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Holy... if he could become as good as Sano was, then getting him would be GREAT! Dude was able to carry the offense for months at a time. 

I am not sure if you heard but Sano is no longer on the team.  Maybe they should just bring Sano back and forget about Adell?  That would be cheaper.

[jmlease1]

It's an interesting idea! Some times a player just needs to get a fresh start with a different organization. the fact that he has an option left certainly helps. The Twins 40-man is pretty tight these days, though. normally there's 3-5 guys on the back end of the 40-man that I really don't care if another team decides they want them, and right now that number is less for me, at least when considering a player that is in many ways a lottery ticket. (I would happily bump Pagan off the roster for him, though.)

[CRF]

Trade Pagan for him.

[Mike Sixel]

If the price isn't too high, I like this upside play. I have doubts, but I also have hope. I wonder what it would take. 

[sun]

Jo Adell doesn't appeal to me. It's not like he's a Delmon Young or a Marty Cordova. I would expect that if the Twins have a need then they would acquire more of a proven talent. Either the Twins need a proven player or they don't. I don't agree with expending pitching talent like Sands for a player that's not going to be a keeper. That's what my gut tells me anyway. We still have Celestino who hasn't been dealt yet, and we don't need to risk getting a mediocre outfielder.

[Doctor Gast]

Hi Adell

I don't have much faith in our coaching staff to fix anyone with a SO problem. They couldn't fix Sano, Sanchez or Jeffers. So what makes them think they can fix Gallo or Adell. But if Buxton or Lewis have the key to unlock something then I'd be on board. Adell should be very cheap & he does have that potential.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Hi Adell

I don't have much faith in our coaching staff to fix anyone with a SO problem. They couldn't fix Sano, Sanchez or Jeffers. So what makes them think they can fix Gallo or Adell. But if Buxton or Lewis have the key to unlock something then I'd be on board. Adell should be very cheap & he does have that potential.

Sano had several coaches.... Jeffers doesn't have may at bats and was hurt. Sanchez is a long term veteran. I have no idea how you draw any conclusions from those three. 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Always a fan of high upside, low cost players.  We all know a change of scenery, a different coach, a different voice can have huge impacts.  While not a complete flier, I would imagine the cost would be relatively low.

Nice find Seth! 

[chpettit19]

Pagan for Adell? Done and done. Alexy, Sands, Celestino, Gallo, Kepler. If one of those 6 guys can fetch you Adell (plus a flier for someone like Gallo or Kepler) then I'd do it. My concern with Adell is that, despite top of the charts speed, he's a terrible defender. The combination of power and speed is definitely an intriguing one for special upside. But if you can't develop the hit and field tools you end up with Lewis Brinson, Keon Broxton, or any of the other guys who could run real fast and hit the ball real far, but couldn't play baseball. Since Adell requires a 40-man spot it limits my desire for him. But there's worst things to go after than sky high potential.

[weitz41]

Jo Adell is definitely not someone I was thinking of when the offseason started as a righthanded outfielder the Twins should pursue. If the cost is a borderline prospect or a couple of lottery tickets I'd say do it. The upside is huge.

[Cris E]

No.  The guy does not take a thoughtful approach to hitting and he's getting eaten up at the MLB level because he won't make adjustments.  Here's a link to a Trevor Bauer podcast (don't judge me) where he got together with Adell, Hunter Greene and Kenny Lofton to talk about many things. At one point Lofton is explaining how important it was to him to use video when it became available, to use advanced stats when they became available, and to stay ahead of pitchers however he could. Greene and Bauer agreed completely, but Adell was quite cool. Check out around the two  minute mark where he explains how uncomfortable he is with new technology and info. "Honestly I'm kind of out on it." Around eight minutes he tells the others he can't pick up a pitcher's grip until the arm is in front and everyone jumps on him that he has to.  At 25 minutes Kenny tells Bauer to dial back the social media because it's making him look bad, and he also talks about Houston's garbage cans and PEDs in general. It's a very good half hour, but Adell doesn't not come off as thoughtful or willing to make the most of his talent, 

I could be wrong, but at the time this was shot, pre-covid, he wasn't willing to take help and there hasn't been much in his numbers to indicate that's changed in the years since.

[Daniel Anderson]

Yes. With the rule changes coming up this team desperately needs more speed.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Cris E said:

No.  The guy does not take a thoughtful approach to hitting and he's getting eaten up at the MLB level because he won't make adjustments.  Here's a link to a Trevor Bauer podcast (don't judge me) where he got together with Adell, Hunter Greene and Kenny Lofton to talk about many things. At one point Lofton is explaining how important it was to him to use video when it became available, to use advanced stats when they became available, and to stay ahead of pitchers however he could. Greene and Bauer agreed completely, but Adell was quite cool. Check out around the two  minute mark where he explains how uncomfortable he is with new technology and info. "Honestly I'm kind of out on it." Around eight minutes he tells the others he can't pick up a pitcher's grip until the arm is in front and everyone jumps on him that he has to.  At 25 minutes Kenny tells Bauer to dial back the social media because it's making him look bad, and he also talks about Houston's garbage cans and PEDs in general. It's a very good half hour, but Adell doesn't not come off as thoughtful or willing to make the most of his talent, 

I could be wrong, but at the time this was shot, pre-covid, he wasn't willing to take help and there hasn't been much in his numbers to indicate that's changed in the years since.

Yikes. That's bad. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Go for a RH-hitting fielder that can help THIS YEAR, not a lotto ticket unless you can afford to do both.