The Twins cannot trade Arraez

[bloomwcjkl]

I like Arraez's batting approach. But, he doesn't have a position. 1B just doesn't seem right.

I am OK with trading him in a bundle for the right player. Whoever that is.

[MinnInPa]

On 1/18/2023 at 10:59 AM, August J Gloop said:

1. Batting titles are dum. They don't really measure much other than you got to first base a lot. At a minimum the "batting title" should be OPS. Heck it's a much bigger number anyway! 

2. Arraez is not Tony Gwynn by any measure other than both were/are charismatic, athletically challenged guys who could put the bat to the ball. Tony struck out half as much over his whole career and even though he was known as a 'singles hitter' has a bunch more ISO than Luis. 

Arraez is the perfect headliner in a trade because you're trading the hope he could maybe if things go right be almost someone you could mention in the same breath as Tony Gwynn. There's value in possibility. Maybe even 6+ years of controlable pitching (Luzardo and Cabrera, plz). 

Replace Lewis with Arraez and you might be on to something. Most likely, the Fish would like Arraez and some other prospects for even Lopez. Because projectable pitching is much more valuable than the kind of hitting Arraez does. Arrazed for Lopez 1-1 is slanted in favor of the Twins and Lopez really isn't that much better than who we already have. But he would be more of it, so still a good get. 

i'll take 3 guys hitting .300 in my lineup everyday over guys hitting .240 and hitting 25 HR's and K'ing over 30% of the time.. thats what is so sickening to watch in todays game..all the players in lineups that K over 30% of the time. Do Not trade Arraes unless its for a proven # 1 starter..and no team will give up that. Kepler and Martin would be an even trade for Lopez

 

[tony&rodney]

I don't see Arraez losing skill, I see him getting even better. That said, the right return makes him fair to trade if it improves the potential of the team for this year and going forward.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/18/2023 at 10:48 AM, CoasterProductions said:

I realize that. It was the first thing that popped into my head. I think it would at least take Martin, Kepler, and Pagan

I’ve been touting the Kepler - Martin - Pagan or López trade for the Marlin’s Luzardo…….longer runway & better stuff than López. Only last year (100.3 innings) was successful …. 3.32 ERA……11K/9 innings……..1.03 WHIP.

[HoskenPowell]

On 1/18/2023 at 9:19 AM, CoasterProductions said:

They can’t and here is why.

1. He won a batting title. Did the Twins trade Joe Mauer and Rod Carew? No! Why trade Arraez? 
2. I have been browsing around the forums and I have seen multiple people comparing Arraez’s hitting to Tony Gwynn. If you had Tony Gwynn on your team would you trade him? No probably not. If they end up trading him for Pablo Lopez it would probably end up being one of the worst trades in franchise history. So here is my proposal for Pablo Lopez

Twins get: Pablo Lopez

Marlins Get: Max Kepler, Emilio Pagan, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis

Thoughts?

 

Too much going to Marlins.....if they thru in LH reliever Blier then ok

[Brad Helgeson]

Unfortunately they did trade Carew to the Angels. Arreaz has got to be a fixture of this franchise for a long time. 

I'd offer Kepler, Gordon, Pagan and Larnach

[JD-TWINS]

BIRD IN HAND is real!! Arraez is here through ‘25. The assumption that our prospects are going to step in, or should step in because of “athletic promise” or what they did in high A Ball, and hit .315 in the Show, is absolutely ridiculous.

Arraez is a .314 career guy over 4 seasons……..11 guys in the game hit .300 or better in ‘22. Should we assume our prospects are one of the top 10 average hitters in the league?

Kirilof is the guy people point to as the heir apparent at 1B if Arraez gets traded……,he’s coming off career saving wrist surgery. He’s never played regularly not due to lack of opportunity but due to injury. He can’t be relied on until we see his results through July/August.

[HoskenPowell]

On 1/18/2023 at 9:19 AM, CoasterProductions said:

They can’t and here is why.

1. He won a batting title. Did the Twins trade Joe Mauer and Rod Carew? No! Why trade Arraez? 
2. I have been browsing around the forums and I have seen multiple people comparing Arraez’s hitting to Tony Gwynn. If you had Tony Gwynn on your team would you trade him? No probably not. If they end up trading him for Pablo Lopez it would probably end up being one of the worst trades in franchise history. So here is my proposal for Pablo Lopez

Twins get: Pablo Lopez

Marlins Get: Max Kepler, Emilio Pagan, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis

Thoughts?

 

Carew and Mauer were gold glove fielders at multiple positions.  Areaz is below average fielder at any position he plays.  Period. Twins have needed arms for YEARS. To get something good you need to give up something good. (unless your a Yankee fan who seem to think their crap players all deserve good players in return). You have Martin/Lewis/Gordon and others in the wings to replace Araez while we don't have many top of rotation options in our AAA levels.

[EGFTShaw]

On 1/18/2023 at 10:48 AM, CoasterProductions said:

I realize that. It was the first thing that popped into my head. I think it would at least take Martin, Kepler, and Pagan

This is better.

But then again, I am not sold on Lopez.  I know we have some FA pitchers after this year, but Lopez isn't moving the needle enough for me.  He is like Gray. If he was a Gray++, siginficant upgrade then maybe.

[EGFTShaw]

Instead of comparing Arraez to other .300 plus hitters over the years.

But from an article by ESPN this past summer.

You may have heard of this guy name Ichiro and as a Twins fan Carew is on your Mount Rushmore.

"His biggest boosters include Twins legend Rod Carew, winner of seven batting titles, owner of a .328 lifetime average and, as Arraez recently learned, Suzuki, who copped to Arraez being his favorite left-handed hitter in baseball today. Neither Carew nor Suzuki lavishes praise willy-nilly. Their stamps of approval say as much as Arraez's numbers."

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, Brad Helgeson said:

Unfortunately they did trade Carew to the Angels. Arreaz has got to be a fixture of this franchise for a long time. 

I'd offer Kepler, Gordon, Pagan and Larnach

That’s an entire starting outfield!!! Pagan is worth a little bit but I have no problem having him be involved in the trade.

If this is for Pablo López, not sure who, it’s too much.

Kepler - Pagan - Larnach should be enough for a #3 starter……..didn’t finish 2022 real well either. Maybe sub .500 W-L for career. I get he pitches for Marlins……still gotta get guys out efficiently or not a lot of worth to TWINS.

Repeating - repeating - LUZARDO from Marlins. Check out stats vs. P. Lopez.

[Brad.dahlen]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If that is true, then we need to sell Duran. You would not advocate that would you? 

I really don't see the parallel. 

[Whitey333]

Sure.  The statement was blankety made by several people here saying trade Arraez, while he is at his peak.  The question came from another person then why don't they trade Duran?  He's at or approaching his peak.  It seems like a reasonable question.  And I'm a little surprised about how many people are down on Arraez.  People worry about his knees and understandably so but look at all the injuries Buxton has had over 8 years.  He's good sometimes when he is able to play.  But a part time player doesn win MVP or make the hall of Fame.  No, he gets a 100 million contract to play half the games.  If the need is there to trade Arraez I hope it's for established pitching and not future prospects.

[Mark G]

On 1/18/2023 at 9:59 AM, August J Gloop said:

1. Batting titles are dum. They don't really measure much other than you got to first base a lot. At a minimum the "batting title" should be OPS. Heck it's a much bigger number anyway! 

2. Arraez is not Tony Gwynn by any measure other than both were/are charismatic, athletically challenged guys who could put the bat to the ball. Tony struck out half as much over his whole career and even though he was known as a 'singles hitter' has a bunch more ISO than Luis. 

Arraez is the perfect headliner in a trade because you're trading the hope he could maybe if things go right be almost someone you could mention in the same breath as Tony Gwynn. There's value in possibility. Maybe even 6+ years of controlable pitching (Luzardo and Cabrera, plz). 

Replace Lewis with Arraez and you might be on to something. Most likely, the Fish would like Arraez and some other prospects for even Lopez. Because projectable pitching is much more valuable than the kind of hitting Arraez does. Arrazed for Lopez 1-1 is slanted in favor of the Twins and Lopez really isn't that much better than who we already have. But he would be more of it, so still a good get. 

I am sure there has been a post somewhere that I would disagree with more.........but for the life of me, I can't think of one off hand.  Batting title dum.........I will have to remember that one.  😏

[Otaknam]

On 1/18/2023 at 8:19 AM, CoasterProductions said:

They can’t and here is why.

1. He won a batting title. Did the Twins trade Joe Mauer and Rod Carew? No! Why trade Arraez? 
2. I have been browsing around the forums and I have seen multiple people comparing Arraez’s hitting to Tony Gwynn. If you had Tony Gwynn on your team would you trade him? No probably not. If they end up trading him for Pablo Lopez it would probably end up being one of the worst trades in franchise history. So here is my proposal for Pablo Lopez

Twins get: Pablo Lopez

Marlins Get: Max Kepler, Emilio Pagan, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis

Thoughts?

 

That’s too much and a resounding NO to trading Lewis! He is a potential impact player and you don’t trade that for another number three starter. This is my big concern; that the FO will trade Lewis or Lee or SWR. 

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I really don't see the parallel. 

He was responding to the Sell When High comment about Arraez. 

Duran's value is HIGH, therefore should we sell?

The answer is No.

But you DO, or would rather, sell when a players value is high (Arraez) vs low (Kepler). So selling Kepler after his 35+ HR season is better than this offseason since his batting has taken a nose dive.

[arby58]

The Twins traded Carew in 1979.

[Brad.dahlen]

2 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

He was responding to the Sell When High comment about Arraez. 

Duran's value is HIGH, therefore should we sell?

The answer is No.

But you DO, or would rather, sell when a players value is high (Arraez) vs low (Kepler). So selling Kepler after his 35+ HR season is better than this offseason since his batting has taken a nose dive.

I think the thing being missed with Arraez is that he clearly has a degenerative knee issue. He started as a 2B/3B/OF and has went to maybe a 2B and now is maybe a 1B. This has happened in too short period of a time to think he has any longevity.

 

So, his value is as high as it's going to get AND it's going to go down substantially in the next two years.

 

Duran's value is high AND it's going to go higher. 

 

No parallels.  

 

Kepler should be traded because he doesn't fit on this team (LH) and he doesn't bring much value to the lineup either. Addition by subtraction. 

[Stew]

What would everybody think if in the next two years or so he hit .400. I know that crazy  and probably never done again but he still has time to improve. He will never be as valuable as a Judge, but one writer said he would even be better batting in front of someone like judge. His pluses , he gets on base, he puts his bat on the ball more than most , he hasn't had a full year of our best hitters batting in front and behind him, because of injuries. And at least lately he's been healthy. I would go for a trade with him , keeper, Martin and maybe a pitcher like Richardson. But that much for Alcantara and a top ten minor leaguers in there organization.

[Brad.dahlen]

45 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Sure.  The statement was blankety made by several people here saying trade Arraez, while he is at his peak.  The question came from another person then why don't they trade Duran?  He's at or approaching his peak.  It seems like a reasonable question.  And I'm a little surprised about how many people are down on Arraez.  People worry about his knees and understandably so but look at all the injuries Buxton has had over 8 years.  He's good sometimes when he is able to play.  But a part time player doesn win MVP or make the hall of Fame.  No, he gets a 100 million contract to play half the games.  If the need is there to trade Arraez I hope it's for established pitching and not future prospects.

I'd take Buxton in 50 games over Arraez in 100. People are over valuing a singles hitter. I get that he is fun and easy to root for. But he's a barely above average hitter who is only going to be on the dirt for a couple more years. You want a full-time, singles hitting DH?  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I really don't see the parallel. 

The parallel is this: to sell Duran while he is at this peak, just as the author is advocating selling Arraez while he is at his peak. No way I am advocating that, but the author opined that Arraez was at his peak and the Twins should sell him while he is at his peak. There are other reasons to sell /trade Arraez (his lack of mobility, his limitations in fielding, his lack of power) but I, for one, hope the Twins find a way to keep Luis Arraez. 

[Brad.dahlen]

22 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The parallel is this: to sell Duran while he is at this peak, just as the author is advocating selling Arraez while he is at his peak. No way I am advocating that, but the author opined that Arraez was at his peak and the Twins should sell him while he is at his peak. There are other reasons to sell /trade Arraez (his lack of mobility, his limitations in fielding, his lack of power) but I, for one, hope the Twins find a way to keep Luis Arraez. 

I think the thing being missed with Arraez is that he clearly has a degenerative knee issue. He started as a 2B/3B/OF and has went to maybe a 2B and now is maybe a 1B. This has happened in too short period of a time to think he has any longevity.

 

So, his value is as high as it's going to get AND it's going to go down substantially in the next two years.

 

Duran's value is high AND it's going to go higher. 

 

I'm fine with keeping Arraez as well, but to expect him to be a significant contributor for very much longer doesn't seem wise. 

[Mark G]

38 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I'd take Buxton in 50 games over Arraez in 100. People are over valuing a singles hitter. I get that he is fun and easy to root for. But he's a barely above average hitter who is only going to be on the dirt for a couple more years. You want a full-time, singles hitting DH?  

I wouldn't, and for a variety of reasons.  I would rather have a guy play 100 games in the field over 50 (and that is close, as Buck played the field in 58 and Louis played in 102), and I would rather have a guy hit .316 with and OBP of .375 than a  guy that hits the occasional solo HR, strikes out 1/3 of his at bats, and hits .224 with barely over a .300 OBP.  A contact hitter who walks more than he strikes out vs a hitter who swings like he is swinging a golf club to get his "launch angle" just right so that when he finally connects it is a HR or a double.  People are over valuing the solo HR hitter, not the guy who gets on base 37-38% of the time.  And on what planet is a .314 lifetime hitter "barely above average"?  

[Brad.dahlen]

3 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I wouldn't, and for a variety of reasons.  I would rather have a guy play 100 games in the field over 50 (and that is close, as Buck played the field in 58 and Louis played in 102), and I would rather have a guy hit .316 with and OBP of .375 than a  guy that hits the occasional solo HR, strikes out 1/3 of his at bats, and hits .224 with barely over a .300 OBP.  A contact hitter who walks more than he strikes out vs a hitter who swings like he is swinging a golf club to get his "launch angle" just right so that when he finally connects it is a HR or a double.  People are over valuing the solo HR hitter, not the guy who gets on base 37-38% of the time.  And on what planet is a .314 lifetime hitter "barely above average"?  

Byron Buxton had a higher OPS+ in 2022 than Luis Arraez, including more RBIs in almost 200 fewer at bats. Solo homeruns are much more valuable than a single. It is simply a fact. 

And sure, Luis Arraez is above average at getting on-base. But in no other way as a hitter. He has one tool. And that doesn't even include playing infield anymore. He's a week hitting 1B/DH. And in a couple years (or fewer) a weak hitting DH. 

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I think the thing being missed with Arraez is that he clearly has a degenerative knee issue. He started as a 2B/3B/OF and has went to maybe a 2B and now is maybe a 1B. This has happened in too short period of a time to think he has any longevity.

 

So, his value is as high as it's going to get AND it's going to go down substantially in the next two years.

 

Duran's value is high AND it's going to go higher. 

 

No parallels.  

 

Kepler should be traded because he doesn't fit on this team (LH) and he doesn't bring much value to the lineup either. Addition by subtraction. 

The parallels are there.

You cannot say what value Duran or Arraez is going to have next year or two years from now.

Meh.

[Brad.dahlen]

12 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

The parallels are there.

You cannot say what value Duran or Arraez is going to have next year or two years from now.

Meh.

That's exactly what the front office is trying to when debating to trade Arraez or not. And that is what this discussion is about. I'll take Duran's WAR over the next 3 years over Arraez. And I'd take the same bet with WPA. 

 

A player's value is not in what they did last season, but rather what they can do for you the length of their contract.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Brad.dahlen said:

A player's value is not in what they did last season, but rather what they can do for you the length of their contract.

Exactly.

it wasn't a debate over who to keep or trade, but if there was a parallel between Duran (or anyone) and Arraez when it comes to trading them at the peak of their value.  

We have some history with Arraez.  He can hit and he has skeptical knees.

We have less history with Duran, he was LIGHTS OUT this year as a reliever but problematic staying healthy the previous years.  Also, relievers are notoriously unpredictable.

You're are banking on this being the best time to trade Arraez.  Not everyone agrees with you.  But simply saying trade because his value is high now was what sparked the initial remark. (That wasn't me)

 

[Brad.dahlen]

4 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Exactly.

it wasn't a debate over who to keep or trade, but if there was a parallel between Duran (or anyone) and Arraez when it comes to trading them at the peak of their value.  

We have some history with Arraez.  He can hit and he has skeptical knees.

We have less history with Duran, he was LIGHTS OUT this year as a reliever but problematic staying healthy the previous years.  Also, relievers are notoriously unpredictable.

You're are banking on this being the best time to trade Arraez.  Not everyone agrees with you.  But simply saying trade because his value is high now was what sparked the initial remark. (That wasn't me)

 

Fair enough. Good point

[Reptevia]

10 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If that is true, then we need to sell Duran. You would not advocate that would you? 

Terrible analogy. Duran showed us his floor last year. This is Arraez’ ceiling. 

[Paul Walerius]

On 1/18/2023 at 9:19 AM, CoasterProductions said:

They can’t and here is why.

1. He won a batting title. Did the Twins trade Joe Mauer and Rod Carew? No! Why trade Arraez? 
2. I have been browsing around the forums and I have seen multiple people comparing Arraez’s hitting to Tony Gwynn. If you had Tony Gwynn on your team would you trade him? No probably not. If they end up trading him for Pablo Lopez it would probably end up being one of the worst trades in franchise history. So here is my proposal for Pablo Lopez

Twins get: Pablo Lopez

Marlins Get: Max Kepler, Emilio Pagan, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis

Thoughts?

 

Joe and Rod had a position.   Arreaz doesn't really pay any position great.