Why in the World Are the Twins Thinking of Trading Luis Arraez?

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Many say that Lopez is a bottom of the rotation SP. I've been searching the rankings on the MLB SPs. I could only find fantasy rankings, IDK how true they are but they seem pretty close. In all those rankings Lopez & Luzardo fluctuated between the two ranking in the middle #2 and S Gray was high #3 to low #2. If S. Gray is our bar then both Lopez & Luzardo exceed that bar.

 

Pablo Lopez simply rates higher than any current Twins starter. That said, he has just two years of control remaining. The guys with multiple years of control (more than two) to look at are Cabrera and Luzardo. They also project as better than what the Twins currently have in their rotation. On the other hand, all of Arraez, Miranda, Kepler, Larnach, and Jeffers would be big pickups for the Marlins. NO, not all of them. The Marlins and Twins match up nicely for a trade and fans of both teams will find fault if it occurs, when their favorite player is moved.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Which starter do you think they could get for Arraez?

To be honest... I don't think we can get the starter that we need to get but I have no way of knowing... just an assumption from looking at rosters around the league. 

We have a lot of starting options on the 40 man right now. Lopez joins the existing pile, he doesn't elevate the pile.

What we need is the elite guy like Alcantara and the Marlins are not going to give him up. I doubt any team is going to trade that type of guy at this point of the off-season and even if they would... it would take a hell of a lot more than Arraez. 

Losing what Arraez gives us offensively for a decent pitcher that just joins the pile would be a mistake in my opinion.

You would have to trade pitching to replace him in my opinion. 

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

To be honest... I don't think we can the starter that we need to get but I have no way of knowing... just an assumption from looking at rosters around the league. 

We have a lot of starting options on the 40 man right now. Lopez joins the existing pile, he doesn't elevate the pile.

What we need is the elite guy like Alcantara and the Marlins are not going to give him up. I doubt any team is going to trade that type of guy at this point of the off-season and even if they would... it would take a hell of a lot more than Arraez. 

Losing what Arraez gives us offensively for a decent pitcher that just joins the pile would be a mistake in my opinion.

You would have to trade pitching to replace him in my opinion. 

Could not agree more.  Trading a great player with 3 years of control for a player with 2 years of control is bad to start with but the whole point is to get that player that truly makes a difference.  Lopez is not that player.  I would rather take my chances with Eury Perez if they would trade him.  

[Stew]

I know it's been said that Arraez has very little power. And most think that makes a huge difference However, we still need people on base to drive in . Also the best starter impacts 30 to 35 games. A great hitter who gets on base is a treasure. Someone has to be on to get driven in. Also the Twins didn't lead the league in rbi's or runs. I remember alot of solo home runs. Sure they are exciting and a thing of beauty. But who other than Correa has a great batting avg. , Ops, obp. I mentioned that our weakness as a team is undeniably avg and on base percentage. It hasn't been power. So we get a guy like gallo who batted around .200 last year and didn't break an home run records. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez "didn't play 1B" until they put him there last season. An infielder at any other position can usually handle first base.

We are straying from the original statement being that 1B is a position of depth for the Twins.  It isn't.  If it was, we wouldn't have moved a 2B there to play it.

[chpettit19]

58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Pablo Lopez simply rates higher than any current Twins starter. That said, he has just two years of control remaining. The guys with multiple years of control (more than two) to look at are Cabrera and Luzardo. They also project as better than what the Twins currently have in their rotation. On the other hand, all of Arraez, Miranda, Kepler, Larnach, and Jeffers would be big pickups for the Marlins. NO, not all of them. The Marlins and Twins match up nicely for a trade and fans of both teams will find fault if it occurs, when their favorite player is moved.

In what way does Lopez "simply rate higher than any current Twins starter?" Here's stats from 2019-2022 for 6 starters (Twins likely starting 5 currently, plus Lopez). How would you rank them?

Pitcher 1: 84 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.91 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.177 WHIP, 8.8 SO9, 7.8 bWAR
Pitcher 2: 92 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 3.39 ERA, 133 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 SO9, 12.6 bWAR
Pitcher 3: 58 GS (5.6 IP/GS), 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 3.80 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 10.0 SO9, 3.3 bWAR
Pitcher 4: 90 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 4.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.9 SO9, 8.7 bWAR
Pitcher 5: 32 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.63 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.90 FIP, 1.054 WHIP, 9.4 SO9, 2.6 bWAR
Pitcher 6: 31 GS (4.8 IP/GS), 3.82 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 8.9 SO9, 2.1 bWAR

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Could not agree more.  Trading a great player with 3 years of control for a player with 2 years of control is bad to start with but the whole point is to get that player that truly makes a difference.  Lopez is not that player.  I would rather take my chances with Eury Perez if they would trade him.  

I don't like the offensive loss. I'm not sure we can afford that. 

A replacement for Arraez at the top of the order hasn't identified himself yet. 

I'm not knocking Lopez but is he better than Ryan? Better than Ober? Better than Gray, Maeda, Mahle? 

Maybe but by how much if he is? 

Meanwhile the drop off from Arraez to who replaces him at the top of the order is potentially massive because that guy hasn't identified himself yet. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

In what way does Lopez "simply rate higher than any current Twins starter?" Here's stats from 2019-2022 for 6 starters (Twins likely starting 5 currently, plus Lopez). How would you rank them?

Pitcher 1: 84 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.91 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.177 WHIP, 8.8 SO9, 7.8 bWAR
Pitcher 2: 92 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 3.39 ERA, 133 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 SO9, 12.6 bWAR
Pitcher 3: 58 GS (5.6 IP/GS), 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 3.80 FIP, 1.081 WHIP, 10.0 SO9, 3.3 bWAR
Pitcher 4: 90 GS (5.3 IP/GS), 4.27 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.9 SO9, 8.7 bWAR
Pitcher 5: 32 GS (5.4 IP/GS), 3.63 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.90 FIP, 1.054 WHIP, 9.4 SO9, 2.6 bWAR
Pitcher 6: 31 GS (4.8 IP/GS), 3.82 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 8.9 SO9, 2.1 bWAR

Quick guess:  2,3,1,4,5,6

I'm into WHIPs, (don't get the wrong idea there) SO9 and ERA, not in any sort of priority.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Quick guess:  2,3,1,4,5,6

I'm into WHIPs, (don't get the wrong idea there) SO9 and ERA, not in any sort of priority.

I'd go 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6. But I also know who the guys are so am fighting a little extra bias.

Your order is Gray, Maeda, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober. Mine was Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, Ober. 

I'm into WHIP and SO9, but also like the ERA+ to give me a bit better idea of a comparison of where the ERAs were at with regard to the environment they pitched in. The rotation (+Lopez) is truly Gray and a bunch of the same guy. It's why I'm not excited about a potential Lopez trade. He's not a ceiling raiser. He's the same guy (with lower Ks) than the other 4 dudes we already have after Gray.

[Dave The Dastardly]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd go 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6. But I also know who the guys are so am fighting a little extra bias.

Your order is Gray, Maeda, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober. Mine was Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, Ober. 

I'm into WHIP and SO9, but also like the ERA+ to give me a bit better idea of a comparison of where the ERAs were at with regard to the environment they pitched in. The rotation (+Lopez) is truly Gray and a bunch of the same guy. It's why I'm not excited about a potential Lopez trade. He's not a ceiling raiser. He's the same guy (with lower Ks) than the other 4 dudes we already have after Gray.

Interesting. I also shied away from those with fewer innings. Otherwise I might have scored Ryan higher.

But I agree with your premise, we don't need more of the same quality.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Dave The Dastardly said:

Interesting. I also shied away from those with fewer innings. Otherwise I might have scored Ryan higher.

But I agree with your premise, we don't need more of the same quality.

Me knowing it was Ryan allowed me to know his starts were low because he debuted 2 years later, and missed time with covid as opposed to injuries like I know Lopez has struggled with before last year. So not exactly a blind ranking for me.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, killertwinfan said:

The Twins FO has manage this asset very poorly ever since he has surfaced, why wouldn't they continue to do so?  Evidently they just don't value him as much as others. That being said, this team has several gaps, many shared with other teams in the league.  So they have to offer a good/great asset to close the gap. Trying to fill the pitching gap that allows us to get more power in the lineup is not a bad approach.  Arraez deserves to be an every day starter at second base to maximize his potential.  I hope he gets it. 

I don't understand/agree with the claim they have managed Arraez very poorly. Last year, he appeared in 147 games and had 603 plate appearances. For a player who is primarily a hitter, what is very poor about that? In fact, I think they have managed him pretty well, considering that he doesn't have a natural defensive position and isn't particularly fast on the bases (which is what you would expect from a hitter with his high OBP and not-so-high slugging percentage). The Twins have actually maximized his potential, but he has real shortcomings. 

[Aerodeliria]

The old saying, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush," should be made into a monument and put up in centerfield. (They used have the monuments in Yankee Stadium. Although I am sure in the first game of the season, Buxton would collide with the monument and be out for 6-8 weeks.). We have a batting champion. His knees are not great, but he spent most of the season in the line-up. How long will it be before we learn the lesson that the pitcher we are putting all of our hopes in turns out be not quite the same as the promotional catalogue claims?

The other thing is that teams with high OBPs tend to make the playoffs. Teams with poor OBPs tend not to. Just glancing at the numbers would suggest that there is a high liklihood that the there is a positive correlation between high OBP and making the playoffs. Certainly no team with OBP of below .300 made the playoffs in 2022. You can't score runs if you can't put runners on base, so if anything, we need more Arraez-like players not fewer. I imagine this trend will be exacerbated once we get the robo-umps.

Also, saying Arraez's knees are 'ready to explode' is a bit hyperbolic. I hear very few people saying let's trade Buxton away because his entire body is about ready to explode. One player has a far worse track-record than the other regarding playing. Sure, Arraez's knees have not been great, but he has been able to play the field--especially at 1B--and has been more than serviceable in the field.

Let's not trade away one of our few proven hitting assets. There are plenty of other bats/arms that should be in line for the auction before the name of Arraez appears.

[jkcarew]

To me, you need to have a PROVEN bat to replace him at 1B before you can trade him…otherwise you lose in offense what you hope to gain in pitching. I’d love to have a 800+ OPS guy (something Arraez still is not) at 1B…(preferably a righty given current roster)…they’re not that uncommon. But, until that seems imminent for this club, I’d keep the high OBP, high contact guy we have. The disclaimer is if someone wants to overpay for him.

[h2oface]

12 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Who do the Twins have, who is not an everyday position player with an already designated position, that would be better at DH against right- handed pitching? Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestino, Farmer, Gordon? Just play Arraez at DH and occasionally let him play 1B or 2B in a pinch. 

It would be nice to have a DH that actually hits..... instead of a Sanchez or a Sano or a Gallo or a                  .

After all, it is Designated Hitter, not Designated Strikeouter. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Stew said:

I know it's been said that Arraez has very little power. And most think that makes a huge difference However, we still need people on base to drive in . Also the best starter impacts 30 to 35 games. A great hitter who gets on base is a treasure. Someone has to be on to get driven in. Also the Twins didn't lead the league in rbi's or runs. I remember alot of solo home runs. Sure they are exciting and a thing of beauty. But who other than Correa has a great batting avg. , Ops, obp. I mentioned that our weakness as a team is undeniably avg and on base percentage. It hasn't been power. So we get a guy like gallo who batted around .200 last year and didn't break an home run records. 

Unfortunately, Gallo hit .169 last year to drag his career BA to .199. Unbelievable, I know. Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22. If he bats down in the lineup a couple spots he protects the guy in front of him and has 85 RBI.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

You do realize Arraez has already missed time in multiple season for his knees at 25, whereas Correa had never missed time for his ankle in 7 seasons... Obviously comparing apples and oranges here.

Polanco is the guy with bad legs……77 games in 2018 after a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022. Ankle & knee problems.

Arraez started 129 last year & played in 144 games.

[AlGoreRythm]

8 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I for sure wouldn't call him a bad pitcher.  He is at least average with a potential to be great.  One bad season compared to his other seasons???  

We had past seasons, but the Twins weren't willing to pay for his future ones. So far, they were right. You pay for future performance, not the past.

[MABB1959]

11 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Your order is Gray, Maeda, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober. Mine was Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Mahle, Ober

Seems the Twins are in hope and pray with the starters.  Many haven't played an entire season in 3 years.  If it changes GREAT but if not, then what?  Lopez looks like he may have been in the bullpen but his ERA over his career is 5.45?

Pitcher	2020	2021	2022	Avg
Gray	11	26	24	20
Maeda	11	21	0	11
Ober		20	11	16
Mahle	10	33	23	22
Ryan	11	26	24	20
Lopez	10	Bull Pen?	Bull Pen?

[Twodogs]

I know I came late to the conversation here, but what I don't get is how we constantly talk about the Twins players and their deficiencies, (Arraez can't field, he has no power, injury prone, etc.... ), but yet we want some other team to trade an MLB starting pitcher for the Twins deficient player?  

[Scott51104]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Polanco is the guy with bad legs……77 games in 2018

I believe bad legs was not the cause for playing only 77 games in 2018.

[farmerguychris]

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

None of which play 1B, which is the current main position Arraez plays.  That is the lack of depth I am referring to.

Arraez is not a first baseman either.  Sure - he plays there most of the time, but he's a DH with those knees.  Any of the other infielders can play DH or 1B.  Arraez however, cannot pitch and that is what we need.

 

[Major League Ready]

I hope they are able to pull off a trade for Arraez or Polanco but it makes more sense to wait until the deadline.  It's a lot easier to let one of them go if Kirilloff is healthy and/or one of Martin or Julien is up and playing well.  This is how the Rays and As compete.  They do it over and over while we say we can't produce young talent like them.  Why can't we use depth like they do to bring in additional young talent?

[August J Gloop]

Arraez went to first because it was the last hope of a position he wasn't a butcher at. Turns out he did pretty good at it and has upended the depth chart a little. The reason I'm in favor of trading him this offseason is because it was after an up year. His value is going to careen all over because he has limited extra base potential and isn't fast. 

MLB RN has Arraez as the 9th best 1B, which is pretty good, but also means he wouldn't be THAT hard to replace, since to be a top 1B you need power. 

https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-now-s-top-10-first-basemen-right-now

Just Lopez seems like it's not worth the trouble, though. Now imagine some sort of 3 team deal that involves Arraez, Kep and 4 or 5 of your favorite prospects not named Royce Lewis (cuz he's hurt and Correa likes him) or Miranda (Correa adopted him) heading off to Pittsburgh and Miami, returning to the Twins: Cabrera, Luzardo and Bryan Reynolds. That would be a trade worth sending Arraez out for. Luis is good. He's just the most replaceable good player on the roster. But no sense in replacing him with someone only as good or even a little less so. 

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Until Kiriloff or another young prospect at 1B proves themselves and can stay on the field, you keep Arraez imo. 

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Seems the Twins are in hope and pray with the starters.  Many haven't played an entire season in 3 years.  If it changes GREAT but if not, then what?  Lopez looks like he may have been in the bullpen but his ERA over his career is 5.45?

Pitcher	2020	2021	2022	Avg
Gray	11	26	24	20
Maeda	11	21	0	11
Ober		20	11	16
Mahle	10	33	23	22
Ryan	11	26	24	20
Lopez	10	Bull Pen?	Bull Pen?

A couple things with this chart. 1- You're looking at the wrong Lopez. Who you have is Jorge Lopez and we're talking about Pablo Lopez. 2- The 2020 stats render the "Avg" column completely useless if you're attempting to see how close to a "full season" (32ish starts) they get since it was literally impossible for any of them to make 32 starts in a season of only 60 games. So if you want to see how many starts they tend to get in a full year (since 2020 apparently) the numbers are:

Gray: 25
Maeda: 11
Ober: 16
Mahle: 28
Ryan: 25
Lopez (Pablo, not Jorge): 26

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Polanco is the guy with bad legs……77 games in 2018 after a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022. Ankle & knee problems.

Arraez started 129 last year & played in 144 games.

Jorge Polanco was suspended in 2018, not injured. He had never spent a day on the IL before 2022. He's not a guy you should point to of an injury risk. A guy not hitting the IL once until his 9th year is most certainly not someone "with bad legs."

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A couple things with this chart. 1- You're looking at the wrong Lopez. Who you have is Jorge Lopez and we're talking about Pablo Lopez. 2- The 2020 stats render the "Avg" column completely useless if you're attempting to see how close to a "full season" (32ish starts) they get since it was literally impossible for any of them to make 32 starts in a season of only 60 games. So if you want to see how many starts they tend to get in a full year (since 2020 apparently) the numbers are:

Gray: 25
Maeda: 11
Ober: 16
Mahle: 28
Ryan: 25
Lopez (Pablo, not Jorge): 26

Put Maeda and Ober together and you have a whole pitcher.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Seems the Twins are in hope and pray with the starters.  Many haven't played an entire season in 3 years.  If it changes GREAT but if not, then what?  Lopez looks like he may have been in the bullpen but his ERA over his career is 5.45?

Pitcher	2020	2021	2022	Avg
Gray	11	26	24	20
Maeda	11	21	0	11
Ober		20	11	16
Mahle	10	33	23	22
Ryan	11	26	24	20
Lopez	10	Bull Pen?	Bull Pen?

IMO you can’t average starts/yr. with Covid shortened 2020 in the mix.

Am assuming you have the wrong López. Pablo pitches for Marlins - would be a Twin after a trade. …….We have a López now that’s a reliever.

This starts per season chart just exemplifies why we (Rocco) takes pitchers out routinely in the 5th inning!!

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Put Maeda and Ober together and you have a whole pitcher.

To be fair to Maeda it's some really skewed data to look at just his half season before he had TJ, and the subsequent season he missed after. Even getting moved to the bullpen at the end of the year with the Dodgers he averaged 26 starts a year for LA. There's no reason to think he can't come back and throw a full 32 starts this year. Pitchers do it all the time.

Ober, on the other hand, has really never stayed healthy.