Why in the World Are the Twins Thinking of Trading Luis Arraez?

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Matt you've hit the nail on the head.  It's not that I'm on fire with enthusiasm to trade away Arraez.  I love watching him hit.  But Rocco refuses to hit him at the top of the order consistently and with all the injuries our young pitching pipeline has endured it's time to add some young pitching talent, especially with the uncertainty of Mahle, Gray and Maeda for 2024.

And with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Kirilloff, Gordon, and Julien the Twins could replace Arraez.  When teams pitch, they are always in games.  When you struggle to pitch you're getting blown out early more often than you'd like and it's a domino effect to the entire pitching staff as you cobble together a way to finish games day after day after day.  Again, it's not that I'm desperate to trade Arraez, it's just that he's a piece that could help bring back some good, young, controllable pitching.  And I'm always up for that.  

Berrios would not negotiate an extension. Trading him was the only option. If not traded he would now be gone for nothing but a late first round pick. SWR did make an appearance last year

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

The "bad knees" argument doesn't hold water. The Twins were just ecstatic about signing a "bad ankle" guy to a six-year contract for $260 million. Potential injuries are therefore not a factor.

And given that the supply of "top of the rotation" pitchers out there doesn't meet demand I don't think we're going to have trade partners lining up at the door, unless some team has a "top of the rotation" pitcher with a bad shoulder or a tweaking elbow. We are very familiar with those sorts of acquisitions.

Even if we could make a trade for a top pitcher, we'll soon be whining about not scoring runs and the "trade" fanatics will be arguing we need to trade one of our starting pitchers for somebody who can bat .300.

I agree with MABB1959. Constant rebuild doesn't "build" a team. We've got a supposed minor league "pipeline". Use it. And I don't mean for trading away our best prospects.

 

 

You do realize Arraez has already missed time in multiple season for his knees at 25, whereas Correa had never missed time for his ankle in 7 seasons... Obviously comparing apples and oranges here.

[Thebigalguy]

Arraez gets on base. Trading him is a dumb idea unless the FO knows something about his knee that we don’t.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I fully agree with your thoughts.  Its not a popular opinion to trade someone like him, but I think he's hit his peak value and plays a position we have depth at.  We need pitching and despite him being only 25, he won't age well due to his knees. 

Sorry, but a position of depth?  So much depth that we had to move a 2B over to play 1B last year?  We have some unproven potential, not depth. 

[Heiny]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

How many times have Lewis (12 games) - Lee - Larnach - Kiriloff hit .300 in the Show??? Only Lee, after most of one season in our system, seems to be able to stay on the field. Can’t keep chasing the next good hitter based on headlines & ignore the bird in hand!

ELEVEN guys in MLB hit .300 or better in 2022. Arraez has a 4 year batting average of .314. He started 129 games & played in 144 games in ‘22. He’s above average at 1B. Gotta be a place for him, at 25 yrs old, on the Twins roster for another 6 years plus.

Bat Arraez in the 3 or 5 spot, where Kirilof may be plugged in, and he’ll drive in runs. He slap hits out of the 1 or 2 spot in the line-up because his job is “….to get on base”. He can protect someone in the line-up and drive in runs down in the line-up a bit. He’s a 35 double  - 12 HR guy and a 130 single guy as a regular. With his bat to ball skills he’s going to hit .300 plus in the middle of the line-up and he’ll walk if he’s not seeing good pitches.

I think all 4 guys you mention can be solid pieces for the Twins!! I do think that of the 4, I’d view Kirilof as the most disposable for pitching. Can’t imagine that with his health history anyone is very interested.

Luzardo of Marlins should be the upgrade we are looking for in ‘23 & future. 100.3 innings in ‘22 - 3.32 ERA - 1.2 K’s/9 - 1.03 WHIP - Lefty - 18 starts…..25 yrs old going into his 5th season. As with all arms, health is assumed - that said, big upside with this guy!

For any 3 of these guys:

Lopez - Celestino - Martin or Kirilof - Kepler - Sands - Jeffers - Pagan - 1 of any farm system IF other than Lewis or Lee.

Can’t imagine this not working for Miami & Twins keep the batting champ.

Not arguing any of your points, but that may be what makes him the best trade chip.  Also, my last sentence stated "My humble opinion",  and I'll stand by that, thank you.

[MABB1959]

57 minutes ago, AlGoreRythm said:

Have you looked at Berrios numbers last year? He was awful. Even with Austin Martin's bad season that trade is looking quite good.

My point is we have not seen the players we traded a pretty good pitcher for so far nothing.  Yes, he didn't have his best year but was 12-7 and gave the team 172 innings to help saving their bullpen innings!  You can say it is looking quite good, but we have no idea.  I also believe Berrios will improve.  He is hardworking and competitive.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

We have seen SWR ... he pitched at the end of last season and we will see him this year, too. And he projects to be very good. I was and still am a fan of that trade, but then I wasn't a huge fan of Berrios. He wasn't going to stay with the Twins. Talks to extend him went nowhere and he's not doing that well with the Blue Jays. I get trading away favorite players ... I HATED losing Escobar. But, again, it was the right thing to do and now we are enjoying what Duran brings. If a team is unable to sign pitching, this is how it goes. 

Not wanting to stay on the team is correct.   A player like him wants to go to a contending team.   

As for SWR he played in one game and 5 innings and gave up 2 runs.  I have seen many times where a pitcher starts out well but then the batters figure him out and it can go downhill.  I hope more than anything his projection are accurate. We have learned the hard way that projected doesn't always work.  

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

3 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

It's real simple.  Sell high on him.  Our biggest weakness for years AND years had been pitching,   Sell high and address pitching. He has no real position and most the places we try him he is below average at best. Package him with Keplar or one of the lhh corner outfielders and go get pitching from the Marlins or AZ.  I say Lopez and Luzardo for Araez and Kepler.   Araez also is poor in the running game.

Love the idea but you would have to add at least Larnach to Arraez and Kepler to get López and Luzardo, probably Larnach and a young pitcher like Reyna or Festa. Are you willing to pay that price? BTV says that’s the price to get those two pitchers. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

we remember the twins "struggling" with men on base, but the reality is the Twins were 8th in the league in OPS+ and league average in Ks, so it really just might have been random chance that dinged the Twins on having their hits line up better with the baserunners.

The bad knees talk is legitimate. Arraez was limping to the plate at the end of the year and desperately needed rest for his bad knees but we had so many other injuries that he kept going. Love the heart, but his knees need playing time management to keep him healthy (and he really shouldn't play against LHP if possible). he missed time because of his knees in 2021, had a serious knee injury in the minors (2017) and it's a real issue for him. It doesn't matter if you haven't heard anything from the organization saying his knees are trash (I mean, they're never going to say that about one of their own players) it's been made pretty clear.

Thanks for the clarification.

[chpettit19]

If Arraez can help net a frontline starter it's a deal you have to do. If Arraez can't get you any better than Pablo Lopez it's a deal you can't do. That seems to be the Twins thoughts on things so I have faith this saga will play out in a reasonable way. I have been surprised before, though. But if they stick to that thought process I'm happy.

[AlGoreRythm]

13 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

My point is we have not seen the players we traded a pretty good pitcher for so far nothing.  Yes, he didn't have his best year but was 12-7 and gave the team 172 innings to help saving their bullpen innings!  You can say it is looking quite good, but we have no idea.  I also believe Berrios will improve.  He is hardworking and competitive.

We traded a bad expensive pitcher if we're actually looking at his stats and contract.

Had we signed Berrios we wouldn't have Correa. Would we have been better last year with Berrios or Correa? What about going forward? I argue trading Berrios for something rather than letting him walk because they weren't going to give him $100M was the obvious and correct move.

We also did see SWR at the end of last season and he looks to be a mid rotation starter, assuming he continues to progress.

[Ruven]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

There are other players that are a defensive liability in our system  , trade them , Sabato,  cavacio  and others ...

And I have a 2000 Camry that is a great deal. I mean, it runs. What more does anyone want from a car?

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, Thebigalguy said:

Arraez gets on base. Trading him is a dumb idea unless the FO knows something about his knee that we don’t.

It's pretty obvious they know A LOT more about his knees than the fan base. If they don't, they shouldn't be paying a medical staff.

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Sorry, but a position of depth?  So much depth that we had to move a 2B over to play 1B last year?  We have some unproven potential, not depth. 

Perhaps unproven depth.  But we do have Polanco, Farmer, and Gordon on the active roster with Lee and Lewis ready to come on board at some point this year.  All of them are better in the field at several positions compared to Arraez.

[Riverbrian]

If you look at 40 man balance which I believe has to be looked at. Arraez for a starter is going to require additional moves. 

Currently 23 Pitchers and 17 Position Players make up the 40 man. Trade Arraez for that frontline starter and it's 24 pitchers and 16 position players. That may be a little out of balance. 

Out of those 24 pitchers... 16 are considered starters and 8 are considered bullpen. Make it 15/9 if that Alexy guy is moved to bullpen exclusive. That may also be a little out of balance. 

So... If you trade Arraez for a starter. We will have to turn around and trade some of our starters for a position player for roster balance and we will also be in the position of really really needing to replace Arraez's offensive production somehow and with 24 pitchers on the 40... pitching is what we would be able to trade.  

In a nutshell... We will immediately become what Miami is right now after such trade.

Miami needs to trade pitching for offensive talent. Trade Arraez for pitching and we would need to trade for offensive talent to replace him and have to trade pitching for it. 

I offer this for everyone's consideration. 

 

[Stew]

The biggest point to be made is that the league avg. for batting average was .244. To which the twins were right at the avg. A point of note ,  Arraez was .316 that's .72 above that figure. He also was the top of the twins for on base percent. It seems like we had enough players who couldn't hit to get on base. Sano, Kepler, Jeffers,polanko, even Buxton. You can always tell what a team needs based on what they do t do. So why would we lose our best overall hitter?

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, Stew said:

The biggest point to be made is that the league avg. for batting average was .244. To which the twins were right at the avg. A point of note ,  Arraez was .316 that's .72 above that figure. He also was the top of the twins for on base percent. It seems like we had enough players who couldn't hit to get on base. Sano, Kepler, Jeffers,polanko, even Buxton. You can always tell what a team needs based on what they do t do. So why would we lose our best overall hitter?

because he's not our best overall hitter? As has been pointed out previously, batting average treats all hits as if they are equal, and they're not. A home run is worth a lot more than a single, etc. You can't ignore the impact of hitting for power when assessing who the best hitter on the team is. A high batting average is great, desirable, and impactful. But Arraez only slugged .420 last season which limits his offensive profile. Our best overall hitter last season was probably Correa, factoring everything into the mix, including health. Correa's OPS+ was 140, Arraez clocked in at 130.

[Dman]

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If you look at 40 man balance which I believe has to be looked at. Arraez for a starter is going to require additional moves. 

Currently 23 Pitchers and 17 Position Players make up the 40 man. Trade Arraez for that frontline starter and it's 24 pitchers and 16 position players. That may be a little out of balance. 

Out of those 24 pitchers... 16 are considered starters and 8 are considered bullpen. Make it 15/9 if that Alexy guy is moved to bullpen exclusive. That may also be a little out of balance. 

So... If you trade Arraez for a starter. We will have to turn around and trade some of our starters for a position player for roster balance and we will also be in the position of really really needing to replace Arraez's offensive production somehow and with 24 pitchers on the 40... pitching is what we would be able to trade.  

In a nutshell... We will immediately become what Miami is right now after such trade.

Miami needs to trade pitching for offensive talent. Trade Arraez for pitching and we would need to trade for offensive talent to replace him and have to trade pitching for it. 

I offer this for everyone's consideration. 

 

I don't completely disagree but remember the Twins will get two roster spots back when Paddack and Canterino go on the injured list so they they could replace those spots with position players.  If the Twins Add a starter then one of the current starters might get bumped to the pen.  At any rate they can still balance the roster if needed.

In a perfect world you would carry 6 outfielders, 8 infielders and 2 catchers and maybe a DH for position players.  That gives you a potential replacement player for each position for a total of 17 players.  40 Man rosters most always carry more pitchers than position players as pitchers tend to get injured more often and need options to be replaced.  I don't think you would want more than 18 position players on the 40 man if you can help it but that is just my opinion.

[Doctor Gast]

"His massive second half cool-down proves there’s still something left in his proverbial tank"

His massive second half cool-down proves he was running out of gas.

Arraez's best position is 1B. At 1B we have Miranda, Kiriloff, Gallo with Julien knocking at the door. There's probably more with some 1B experience. And there others more athletic than Arraez that make that transition to 1B easier than him. So defensively he will not be missed.

What Arraez does do well is getting on base but from there he is not a scoring threat. He doesn't take  or steal that extra base or has good ability to score on an OF fly ball.

Arraez's bat will be missed, but that'll be a short time with Lewis, Lee, Martin & Julien coming up. And even a shorter time if Larnach & Kiriloff really start to hit according to their potential. 

You might say that Arraez is a great clubhouse guy. That never stopped FO from doing that before. They traded Rogers last year he was a great clubhouse guy and Dozier in '18 who was a great clubhouse guy & leader. Both cases they never got a great return & had no one to take over their positions.

IMO this FO undervalues MIA's pitchers. In '20, MIA  wanted Rosario and we had a shot at Alcantra but a deal wasn't worked out because FO wanted too much for Rosario. The following year Rosario was released. A great opportunity was lost.

What it sounds like is MIA wants Arraez straight up for Lopez. I'd easily take that deal. But again FO wants more. Arraez won't ever be higher in trade value. I'm afraid we might miss another opportunity.

We can't look only at what we'll lose but what'll gain. An upper level pitcher that was healthy last year, who pitched 180 innings. That's what we need with our pitching philosophy.

 

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

Perhaps unproven depth.  But we do have Polanco, Farmer, and Gordon on the active roster with Lee and Lewis ready to come on board at some point this year.  All of them are better in the field at several positions compared to Arraez.

None of which play 1B, which is the current main position Arraez plays.  That is the lack of depth I am referring to.

[MGM4706]

The trade makes perfect sense if it results in obtaining a quality pitcher!

Arraez has no real position and will not help the Twins get any better than a .500 Club! A quality Starter has the chance to have a larger impact!

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Trade Arraez for pitching and we would need to trade for offensive talent to replace him and have to trade pitching for it. 

The Twins have near-majors non-roster offensive talent in the minors (Austin Martin, Brooks Lee) but no non-roster pitching talent above A-ball.

If the Twins trade Arraez they are counting on one of Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Julien, Lee or Martin to step up and fill a spot in the lineup. They don't have 7 potential prospects to fill a spot in the rotation - just SWR and Varland.

[Fezig]

Keeping Luis on the roster definitely hinders the squads goal of breaking every team strikeout record. 

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

None of which play 1B, which is the current main position Arraez plays. 

Arraez "didn't play 1B" until they put him there last season. An infielder at any other position can usually handle first base.

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't completely disagree but remember the Twins will get two roster spots back when Paddack and Canterino go on the injured list so they they could replace those spots with position players.  If the Twins Add a starter then one of the current starters might get bumped to the pen.  At any rate they can still balance the roster if needed.

In a perfect world you would carry 6 outfielders, 8 infielders and 2 catchers and maybe a DH for position players.  That gives you a potential replacement player for each position for a total of 17 players.  40 Man rosters most always carry more pitchers than position players as pitchers tend to get injured more often and need options to be replaced.  I don't think you would want more than 18 position players on the 40 man if you can help it but that is just my opinion.

I agree with your suggestion of perfect world balance.  

However, waiting until Paddack and Canterino can be placed on the 60 day will severely limit the talent/availably of any position player that you can acquire for one of those spots.    

Those Paddack and Canterino spots are usually given to players who were released from other teams 40 man roster until they can be given to the next wave (Martin or Lee guys) later on in the season. 

If we are trading away what Arraez provides offensively... in my opinion, we will need to replace it. This has a better chance of happening in the off-season. 

Our offense has too many "If's" to trade off one of the few guys who doesn't really have an "If".

We know what he brings and we need what he brings.

The other guys... we hope they bring what we need them to bring.  

[LanceJS]

7 hours ago, Byrdman said:

I know i am a minority on this forum but i think our rotation is really good.  Even the 7/8/9 SP we have are good.  I want them to trade for and sign every single power arm there is out there for the bullpen.  The Bullpen is the weakest part of the team.  But we also need Rocco learn what a Long man is in the bullpen.  So they can pitch 2-3 innings after he pulls the SP after 4-5 innings. Look at Houston this year and how they used the pitchers. 

I’m right there with you. You can argue that there’s no true ace, and I won’t disagree, but it’s a solid rotation top to bottom. I feel good with any of these guys making a start - can’t say I felt that way last year with Bundy and Archer. I also agree on the need for a long man in the bullpen. Jax or Winder, maybe? 

[Doctor Gast]

Many say that Lopez is a bottom of the rotation SP. I've been searching the rankings on the MLB SPs. I could only find fantasy rankings, IDK how true they are but they seem pretty close. In all those rankings Lopez & Luzardo fluctuated between the two ranking in the middle #2 and S Gray was high #3 to low #2. If S. Gray is our bar then both Lopez & Luzardo exceed that bar.

 

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

We traded a bad expensive pitcher if we're actually looking at his stats and contact.

I for sure wouldn't call him a bad pitcher.  He is at least average with a potential to be great.  One bad season compared to his other seasons???  

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

So... If you trade Arraez for a starter

Which starter do you think they could get for Arraez?

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

The trade makes perfect sense if it results in obtaining a quality pitcher!

Arraez has no real position and will not help the Twins get any better than a .500 Club! A quality Starter has the chance to have a larger impact!

What quality starter is left and who will come to a non-contending team?