Why in the World Are the Twins Thinking of Trading Luis Arraez?

[jmlease1]

The thing that you always have to keep in mind is that to get talent in a trade, you also have to give it up. You can't throw around names like Sabato & Cavaco and expect to get MLB talent; despite their high draft status, these are players that are near busts. 

I don't think the Twins want to get rid of Arraez, but he's a player that has a good value (proven MLB hitter, can play multiple positions even if he's only strong at 1, under team control) and his best positions are areas where the Twins look to have some depth, either on the MLB roster or coming up in the system. (Kirilloff, Miranda, and Gallo are all options to play 1B...so is Kepler, frankly. Julien might end up there too. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis are all likely better options defensively at 2B and Polanco is still properly ensconced there.) So it's a bit of a matter of trading from a position of strength.

Arraez's greatest strength as a hitter is in his contact skills and he'll work a walk without complaint so he gets on base plenty. but there are questions about whether he's got any more power potential in his bat, and if his slugging is basically maxed out then his ceiling as a hitter will struggle to get much higher. He's also seriously limited against LHP. there's real value in having a player that doesn't whiff, gets hits, and gets on base at a good clip, but when it's mostly singles it also limits you.

I love Arraez as a Twin, and would hate to see him go. But if he's part of a deal to substantially improve the rotation? I think that's a reasonable thing to consider. I wouldn't move him for depth, and I doubt I would move him for prospects...and I don't think that's what the front office is interested in either.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

 I would never trade Arraez for Pablo Lopez.  Trading Arraez for two years of a mid to back end starter seems like suicide to me.  If they are going to trade Arraez at least make it for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential.  If the Twins are not trading for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential I would just wait until the deadline and see what shakes out then.  

What if Max Meyer or Eury Perez were the main piece coming back?   Add Joe Mack and I would jump on that deal.

[SDCookie]

I think it would be much easier to sell a Trevor Bauer signing at a rock bottom price than trading away one of the most reliable and productive players on the roster. 

 

[h2oface]

 “a ragtag combo of Nick Gordon and Josh Winder”

Nick Gordon says thanks for the love. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

The "bad knees" argument doesn't hold water. The Twins were just ecstatic about signing a "bad ankle" guy to a six-year contract for $260 million. Potential injuries are therefore not a factor.

And given that the supply of "top of the rotation" pitchers out there doesn't meet demand I don't think we're going to have trade partners lining up at the door, unless some team has a "top of the rotation" pitcher with a bad shoulder or a tweaking elbow. We are very familiar with those sorts of acquisitions.

Even if we could make a trade for a top pitcher, we'll soon be whining about not scoring runs and the "trade" fanatics will be arguing we need to trade one of our starting pitchers for somebody who can bat .300.

I agree with MABB1959. Constant rebuild doesn't "build" a team. We've got a supposed minor league "pipeline". Use it. And I don't mean for trading away our best prospects.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I'll have to admit that it took me some time to warm up to Arraez.  Initially, I didn't like his antics at the plate.  It looked silly to me and more as an attention getter.  But the more I watched, the more I got used to it and saw that, ok, this is just Luis being Luis.  I started to love his great AB's where he showed a great understanding of how to work the pitcher, how to foul off tough to hit pitches,  how to put the ball in play, loved the low SO's.  So, to sum it up, I have become a "Big Fan".  Howeverrrrr.  I can certainly see how it may or may not last considering his knees and a lack of a true defensive position.  And with his trade value being at a probable high, "if" they get a "good" return I would trade him in a second.  I think he is our best tradeable option.  I would trade him before Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff and probably a few others.  My humble opinon.

How many times have Lewis (12 games) - Lee - Larnach - Kiriloff hit .300 in the Show??? Only Lee, after most of one season in our system, seems to be able to stay on the field. Can’t keep chasing the next good hitter based on headlines & ignore the bird in hand!

ELEVEN guys in MLB hit .300 or better in 2022. Arraez has a 4 year batting average of .314. He started 129 games & played in 144 games in ‘22. He’s above average at 1B. Gotta be a place for him, at 25 yrs old, on the Twins roster for another 6 years plus.

Bat Arraez in the 3 or 5 spot, where Kirilof may be plugged in, and he’ll drive in runs. He slap hits out of the 1 or 2 spot in the line-up because his job is “….to get on base”. He can protect someone in the line-up and drive in runs down in the line-up a bit. He’s a 35 double  - 12 HR guy and a 130 single guy as a regular. With his bat to ball skills he’s going to hit .300 plus in the middle of the line-up and he’ll walk if he’s not seeing good pitches.

I think all 4 guys you mention can be solid pieces for the Twins!! I do think that of the 4, I’d view Kirilof as the most disposable for pitching. Can’t imagine that with his health history anyone is very interested.

Luzardo of Marlins should be the upgrade we are looking for in ‘23 & future. 100.3 innings in ‘22 - 3.32 ERA - 1.2 K’s/9 - 1.03 WHIP - Lefty - 18 starts…..25 yrs old going into his 5th season. As with all arms, health is assumed - that said, big upside with this guy!

For any 3 of these guys:

Lopez - Celestino - Martin or Kirilof - Kepler - Sands - Jeffers - Pagan - 1 of any farm system IF other than Lewis or Lee.

Can’t imagine this not working for Miami & Twins keep the batting champ.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What if Max Meyer was the main piece coming back?  

I haven't looked that closely at Max.  I know he was dominant through the minors and looked like a top of the rotation starter but his MLB debut didn't go well and then TJ.  He doesn't help the Twins this year, so you would have to factor that in. It is a bit more of a gamble as he has two elite pitches but could end up a reliever if his arm can't hold up. I would be tempted to do that but I think the Twins are in win now mode so probably a no for me as well.

[August J Gloop]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Nope

Yep. You can't possibly think that people are clamoring to acquire Arraez based on the idea that 2022 was the end of the road up? Maybe we understand the concept of prospects a little differently. He's graduated off the MLB Pipeline list, sure, but he's still prospectively a great hitter. As in he's currently got one pretty good skill, and showed some potential for continued growth. 

What folx would be trading for is the projection that Arraez will keep adding OPS the way John Olerud or Mark Grace did. Otherwise, he's just not that valuable. His WAR outlook hinges on his ISO. Will it be .100+ or around .080? As you can see in his career, that's been the real difference maker. If he can make that .120-.130, he's a bonafide superstar hitter. Most guys need to get that closer to .3 to be nearly as good. But that's still in the realm of projection. Ergo, my statement that he's technically still a prospect. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

With the exception of Buxton, Correa, and probably Duran, every player on the roster is a potential trade piece.  Hearing names come up in talks should never surprise anybody.  Talk is cheap.

I would be extremely surprised to see Arraez be traded unless it is part of a big name trade.  They really do not have someone "prepared" to take his position (like Miranda at 3B).  The potential replacements are unproven.  A young, cost-controlled, infielder that is realistically top quarter to top third at their position is nothing to sneeze at.  Factor in that he is a fan favorite, and you have a valuable asset.

[saviking]

Any player is tradable. What's important is what you get for him. I think Arraez, Polanco and Kepler are all tradable because we have Lewis, Lee and Julian almost ready and they will need positions to play. All are capable of playing second and third base with Lewis able to play outfield as well. 

[farmerguychris]

43 minutes ago, HoskenPowell said:

It's real simple.  Sell high on him.  Our biggest weakness for years AND years had been pitching,   Sell high and address pitching. He has no real position and most the places we try him he is below average at best. Package him with Keplar or one of the lhh corner outfielders and go get pitching from the Marlins or AZ.  I say Lopez and Luzardo for Araez and Kepler.   Araez also is poor in the running game.

I fully agree with your thoughts.  Its not a popular opinion to trade someone like him, but I think he's hit his peak value and plays a position we have depth at.  We need pitching and despite him being only 25, he won't age well due to his knees. 

[JD-TWINS]

Luis Arraez 2022 - .366 BA with RISP, 48 RBI with 80% of his games batting out of lead-off spot.

LAST GUY the opposing teams wants to see coming to bat with guys on base. Not CC - Not Buxton.

If he bats 3rd or 5th he’s trying to “drive in runs” vs. “get on base” out of lead-off spot. Had 9 HR in ‘22 & can elevate that to 12 with just more experience and hitting in a different spot in line-up. If he hits .325 with RISP down in the line-up he has 85 RBI!

.366 BA with RISP is not someone that should be discussed in trade talks.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

Yep. You can't possibly think that people are clamoring to acquire Arraez based on the idea that 2022 was the end of the road up? Maybe we understand the concept of prospects a little differently. He's graduated off the MLB Pipeline list, sure, but he's still prospectively a great hitter. As in he's currently got one pretty good skill, and showed some potential for continued growth. 

What folx would be trading for is the projection that Arraez will keep adding OPS the way John Olerud or Mark Grace did. Otherwise, he's just not that valuable. His WAR outlook hinges on his ISO. Will it be .100+ or around .080? As you can see in his career, that's been the real difference maker. If he can make that .120-.130, he's a bonafide superstar hitter. Most guys need to get that closer to .3 to be nearly as good. But that's still in the realm of projection. Ergo, my statement that he's technically still a prospect. 

Then every player in MLB under 30 is a prospect and the term prospect has no meaning at all.

[August J Gloop]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Then every player in MLB under 30 is a prospect and the term prospect has no meaning at all.

I mean Arraez is only 25. But I understand my word choice has been confusing. We'll say that Arraez has potential to be a lot better.  

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, August J Gloop said:

I mean Arraez is only 25. But I understand my word choice has been confusing. We'll say that Arraez has potential to be a lot better.  

He also has the potential to be a lot worse. Batting average is pretty volatile. If he only hits .270 next year and he still doesn't have any power he'll be below average at 1B.

[Squirrel]

32 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

I agree with MABB1959. Constant rebuild doesn't "build" a team. We've got a supposed minor league "pipeline". Use it. And I don't mean for trading away our best prospects.

This hardly constitutes 'rebuilding' to trade away a player who doesn't really have a position to get a player of need who will help NOW. This is what teams looking to win do. This is what we should be doing.

[tony&rodney]

48 minutes ago, Byrdman said:

Look at Houston this year and how they used the pitchers. 

Yes, Houston has a pretty good bullpen. Let us look at the Houston-Minnesota starting pitcher innings.

Twins        IP                Houston       IP

Ryan       147. 0            Valdez        201.1

Bundy    140.0             Verlander   175

Mahle    120.2             Urquidy       164.1

Gray       119.2             Garcia          157.1    

Archer   102.3             Javier          148.2

Smeltzer 70.1              Odorizzi       60.0

Houston replaces Verlander and Odorizzi with a healthy McCullers and a top prospect Hunter Brown.

Minnesota replaces Bundy, Archer, and Smeltzer with Maeda, Ober, and Winder.

The Valdez, Garcia, Javier, McCullers, and Brown talents all slot above Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober.

While the Twins do have good starters, they need to add one or two starting pitchers with talent/upside. Any of Cabrera, Luzardo, and Lopez would help and that alone would strengthen the bullpen. This would be especially true if the added starter pushed Maeda into relief, where he would be terrific and also build his arm strength.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The biggest problem that the Twins had last year, other than injuries, was hitting with men on base.  This is what Luis excels at.  I absolutely love watching this man take at-bats.  He works counts and gives pitchers headaches.

I thought he played an excellent first base last year and the metrics show that.  I know he does not align with what teams feel a first baseman should be, hitting-wise, but we can make up for that power in other areas like the OF and 3B and with our SS.

I also don't understand the bad knees talk.  I have never heard Twins management or medical personnel mention bad knees, nor do I ever recall him not playing and bad knees being the reason.  Please correct me if I am mistaken here.

With all that said, if a fair deal presents itself then the FO must pull the trigger even though fans will be upset.  As a FO, you have to take emotion out of it and do what is right for the club.

If they trade Luis, I for one will be sad because I will miss his at-bats, but will understand the logic.  

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

 I would never trade Arraez for Pablo Lopez.  Trading Arraez for two years of a mid to back end starter seems like suicide to me.  If they are going to trade Arraez at least make it for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential.  If the Twins are not trading for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential I would just wait until the deadline and see what shakes out then.  

Not that fan opinion matters much, but over on MLBTR, neutral commenters are pretty unanimous in this opinion. Arraez for Lopez is a fine starting point, but the Marlins are going to need to add another solid piece to the trade to get it done.  

[jmlease1]

12 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The biggest problem that the Twins had last year, other than injuries, was hitting with men on base.  This is what Luis excels at.  I absolutely love watching this man take at-bats.  He works counts and gives pitchers headaches.

I thought he played an excellent first base last year and the metrics show that.  I know he does not align with what teams feel a first baseman should be, hitting-wise, but we can make up for that power in other areas like the OF and 3B and with our SS.

I also don't understand the bad knees talk.  I have never heard Twins management or medical personnel mention bad knees, nor do I ever recall him not playing and bad knees being the reason.  Please correct me if I am mistaken here.

With all that said, if a fair deal presents itself then the FO must pull the trigger even though fans will be upset.  As a FO, you have to take emotion out of it and do what is right for the club.

If they trade Luis, I for one will be sad because I will miss his at-bats, but will understand the logic.  

we remember the twins "struggling" with men on base, but the reality is the Twins were 8th in the league in OPS+ and league average in Ks, so it really just might have been random chance that dinged the Twins on having their hits line up better with the baserunners.

The bad knees talk is legitimate. Arraez was limping to the plate at the end of the year and desperately needed rest for his bad knees but we had so many other injuries that he kept going. Love the heart, but his knees need playing time management to keep him healthy (and he really shouldn't play against LHP if possible). he missed time because of his knees in 2021, had a serious knee injury in the minors (2017) and it's a real issue for him. It doesn't matter if you haven't heard anything from the organization saying his knees are trash (I mean, they're never going to say that about one of their own players) it's been made pretty clear.

[August J Gloop]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He also has the potential to be a lot worse. Batting average is pretty volatile. If he only hits .270 next year and he still doesn't have any power he'll be below average at 1B.

And we've settled onto why it's best to trade him and let someone else deal with that instability. Unfortunately also why it will take more than him to get a big return.

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, gman said:

I have never seen any articles written concerning surgery on his knees. Is it a knee problem or problems with weak muscles around his knees. After all, last winter and again this winter he is spending time strenthening his legs. Muscles support the knees. It is not surprising that after doing leg works outs last winter he set a career high for homeruns.

But he still broke down and cratered the second half of the season. He's getting slower, and the injury issues are not going to go away. He barely limped to getting enough AB's to qualify for the batting title. He was a below average hitter from Aug 1 to October 5th, and played mostly DH. 

I love Arraez as a player and as a person. He's super fun and entertaining to watch. That said, I understand why the Twins might trade him while his value is high. 

[Bill Tanner]

Terrific discussion on this thread.

I value Arraez more than the trade value calculations for the reasons discussed above including his OBP, clutch, intensity.  I do see Luis as a multi-year batting champion before it's all said and done.  I am releived the front office declined a 1 for 1 with Lopez.  If we move Arraez, it needs to be as a piece for a top of the rotation guy or one that projects as such.

Some have pointed to his defensive liabilities going forward, and those are valid concerns that will undoubtedly go into the trade calculus.  

One additional detraction, he will not derive any benefit from the shift ban, as defenses had to play him straight up.  So, as it relates to players who suffered with the shift, Luis' offensive value differential may not be as high moving forward.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Who do the Twins have, who is not an everyday position player with an already designated position, that would be better at DH against right- handed pitching? Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestino, Farmer, Gordon? Just play Arraez at DH and occasionally let him play 1B or 2B in a pinch. 

[Doctor Gast]

"His massive second half cool-down proves there’s still something left in his proverbial tank"

His massive second half cool-down proves he was running out of gas.

Arraez's best position is 1B. At 1B we have Miranda, Kiriloff, Gallo with Julien knocking at the door. There's probably more with some 1B experience. And there others more athletic than Arraez that make that transition to 1B easier than him. So defensively he will not be missed.

What Arraez does do well is getting on base but from there he is not a scoring threat. He doesn't take  or steal that extra base or has good ability to score on an OF fly ball.

Arraez's bat will be missed, but that'll be a short time with Lewis, Lee, Martin & Julien coming up. And even a shorter time if Larnach & Kiriloff really start to hit according to their potential. 

You might say that Arraez is a great clubhouse guy. That never stopped FO from doing that before. They traded Rogers last year he was a great clubhouse guy and Dozier in '18 who was a great clubhouse guy & leader. Both cases they never got a great return & had no one to take over their positions.

IMO this FO undervalues MIA's pitchers. In '20, MIA  wanted Rosario and we had a shot at Alcantra but a deal wasn't worked out because FO wanted too much for Rosario. The following year Rosario was released. A great opportunity was lost.

What it sounds like is MIA wants Arraez straight up for Lopez. I'd easily take that deal. But again FO wants more. Arraez won't ever be higher in trade value. I'm afraid we might miss another opportunity.

We can't look only at what we'll lose but what'll gain. An upper level pitcher that was healthy last year, who pitched 180 innings. That's what we need with our pitching philosophy.

 

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Why is no one on this thread talking about Arraez playing at DH? Somebody has to DH 4 to 5 AB each game. Every game. It would save Arraez's legs, plus he would be available to play 1B when needed. I understand the concept of trading when one's value is high...but if a team uses that theory, then it trades its best performers every year. How foolish that would be! The team that does that will never be a consistent winner. If the player is good (wins a batting championship), is good in the clubhouse, loved by the fans, why trade him? Keep him for what he brings to the team. The grass is not always greener on the other side.  

 

[tony&rodney]

Arraez is still improving as a baseball player and batsman. Miami is correct to target Luis but the Twins are right to be stubborn in their demands. That said, i do believe that both teams would benefit from a trade. The Twins need to take the gamble on the unproven starters with tremendous potential, while the Marlins get a sure thing to boost their offense. Arraez, Larnach, and two players not on the 40 person roster (Urbina, Miller) for Cabrera and Luzardo is my current deal. I would miss Arraez and Larnach, but I'm hoping for a breakout from Cabrera and Luzardo that pushes the Twins into post season baseball. Miami would also be a more balanced team.

[KBJ1]

I have always said trade Arraez. Especially now when his value is highest!

An excellent and fun to watch hitter,  but that is as far as his skillset goes.

No power, no speed, weak defense and bad knees make him a one tool player without a position other than DH.

I wouldn't trade him for Lopez or any middle rotation talent.  In a fair package for a top flite starter is what we should ask for.

[AlGoreRythm]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

We traded Berrios away for two players we have yet to see.  

Have you looked at Berrios numbers last year? He was awful. Even with Austin Martin's bad season that trade is looking quite good.

[MTV]

I think it’s time to say goodbye to Arraez. I really enjoy him, he’s the toughest out in baseball and gets on base a whole lot. But he’s injury prone, doesn’t play great defense and has 0 power. I think last year was Arraez’s ceiling and trading him away for high-end pitching would be the best move. The Twins need top-end pitching and honestly I’d rather have Lee/Lewis than Arraez, plus I think Kirilloff/Miranda are due for breakout years.

But, to be completely honest the real reason I want to trade Arraez is because you’ll have Arraez 2.0 ready before the end of the year. Edouard Julien has been a beast in the minors, holding an OPS of .922 between 2 minor league seasons. He’s a literal copy paste of Arraez, a lefty utility infielder with fantastic plate discipline resulting in extreme on-base numbers, on top of running faster and hitting for solid power as opposed to Arraez. He’ll be a core piece of this infield even by 2024 and his arrival will push Arraez out for better pitching in return.