Why in the World Are the Twins Thinking of Trading Luis Arraez?

[Matt Braun]

The argument may not be so far-fetched.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Recent trade talks with the Marlins have spurned eye-opening news: the Twins are actively discussing trading Luis Arraez. The reports are not entirely shocking. Teams value young, controllable pieces, and when you enjoy a plethora of pitching riches—something few teams can claim—you can demand the world in return; a ragtag combo of Nick Gordon and Josh Winder will not get the job done. That’s the price of doing business. The Marlins are maximizing the return on their valuable pieces. 

But wait, it is shocking! Arraez is an All-Star just entering arbitration! What are we even talking about here?

There’s an aesthetic brilliance to Arraez’s hitting, one that baseball sorely lacks these days. He’s not a Chris Johnson BABIP fluke: Arraez possesses the unique ability to sniff out hits, spraying line drives across the field with artistic flair and shocking consistency; his hit chart is as democratic as they come. When paired with an impressive skill to resist swinging at bad pitches, his complete batting package is superhuman, only lacking in power because the good Lord wouldn’t want to create a player that unfair.

Throw in his age—he’s just 25 years old—and years of team control remaining, and it would appear crazy for a team to trade such a cornerstone.

There’s more to baseball than hitting. Only one player can claim the DH spot on any given day, making the other eight players a dual threat, someone who must field as well as bat. Arraez isn’t particularly adroit at second or third—the two positions Minnesota tried him out at the most—and playing him in the outfield is some real cursed stuff, but the Twins did find him a home at first in 2022. Advanced defensive stats applauded Arraez, and he finished 2022 with the highest UZR/150 amongst first basemen with at least 500 innings. A victory for short kings everywhere.

The standard for hitting at first base, though, is much higher than other positions. While Arraez is only behind Andrés Giménez, Jeff McNeil, and José Altuve, respectively, for wRC+ as a second baseman, seven first basemen are ahead of him in line; its defensive barrier of entry is lower.

It’s a tradeoff, as most roster decisions in baseball are, but it’s one the Twins could understandably dislike, especially as the team sits on a bevy of infielders with varying degrees of the same problem. 

Think of it this way: what’s a peak Arraez season? His massive second half cool-down proves there’s still something left in his proverbial tank; perhaps a more consistent performance nets him a wRC+ in the high 130s, maybe touching 140. It would be an impressive season, but one that just hovers around the top 5 or so for first basemen, netting him around 4.0 fWAR. That’s a good player, but is it an unmovable one? Is it unreasonable to imagine a scenario where a healthy Alex Kirilloff bridges the gap, playing close enough to those totals that any value they get from Pablo López is gravy?

It’s not a terrible inefficiency—there are worse things to have than an excellent defensive 1st baseman who also doubles as a top-ten hitter at the position—so if the Twins choose to keep Arraez planted, they aren’t hemorrhaging wins. But teams avoid atypical archetypes at 1st for a reason—there's only one Keith Hernandez, after all—and once you start dissecting the roster, cutting deep into the margins to look for upgrades, Arraez appears expendable, and the Twins could be well-suited to stomach losing him.

 

 

View full article

[MABB1959]

I will never understand.  We wait and wait for prospects to be ready only to trade (sometimes give them away on a bad trade) and then we are back to looking for that star player.  Once they start to show that they could or will be a top player off they go.  Twins always looking for something better?  We had Berrios and traded him 2 seasons ago for players we have not seen yet.  Makes no sense!!!

We get a good player like Arraez and looking to get rid of him for another handful of prospects and the wait starts over.  With Correa, they got lucky he didn't stay with San Fran or the Mets or are we lucky?  Is he going to be on the IL for a better part of the season?  Another fan favorite was Cruz?  Yes, he is getting older but the players we hold on to are not much better.  His stats may be down, but he was good in the clubhouse and good for the fans.  Then we hang on to players like Kepler?

I am a fan that wants a good stable team.  A team we can get to know and love and Arraez fits.  He is a fun player to watch and the AL batting champ?

[TopGunn#22]

Matt you've hit the nail on the head.  It's not that I'm on fire with enthusiasm to trade away Arraez.  I love watching him hit.  But Rocco refuses to hit him at the top of the order consistently and with all the injuries our young pitching pipeline has endured it's time to add some young pitching talent, especially with the uncertainty of Mahle, Gray and Maeda for 2024.

And with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Kirilloff, Gordon, and Julien the Twins could replace Arraez.  When teams pitch, they are always in games.  When you struggle to pitch you're getting blown out early more often than you'd like and it's a domino effect to the entire pitching staff as you cobble together a way to finish games day after day after day.  Again, it's not that I'm desperate to trade Arraez, it's just that he's a piece that could help bring back some good, young, controllable pitching.  And I'm always up for that.  

[MABB1959]

1 minute ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Again, it's not that I'm desperate to trade Arraez, it's just that he's a piece that could help bring back some good, young, controllable pitching.  And I'm always up for that.  

I get your idea, but the Twins are always letting a good and popular players go for "young, controllable pitching" that never seems to happen.  We traded Berrios away for two players we have yet to see.  

[weitz41]

You won't be making to many friends on TD talking about trading Arraez. He is a unicorn in todays game.

It's hard to find a home for him on the field and the homeruns you loose have to come from someone else. But he is pure entertainment with a bat in his hands. With that said, If the return is substantial I could see him getting traded before spring training.

[baul0010]

2 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I get your idea, but the Twins are always letting a good and popular players go for "young, controllable pitching" that never seems to happen.  We traded Berrios away for two players we have yet to see.  

Did you see what Berrios did last year?  -.5 WAR, 5.23 ERA, with only 149 strikeouts in 172 innings.  Something is either wrong with him or he had serious decline.  Not worth paying 120 million for.  I loved Berrios, but we may have dodged a bullet.  

Arraez is the same.  He has two knees ready to explode at any moment.  We get mad at the Twins for trying to flip assets, but on the other hand, we rail on them for keeping players that we pay for being injured.  

 

[mickster]

18 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I will never understand.  We wait and wait for prospects to be ready only to trade (sometimes give them away on a bad trade) and then we are back to looking for that star player.  Once they start to show that they could or will be a top player off they go.  Twins always looking for something better?  We had Berrios and traded him 2 seasons ago for players we have not seen yet.  Makes no sense!!!

We get a good player like Arraez and looking to get rid of him for another handful of prospects and the wait starts over.  With Correa, they got lucky he didn't stay with San Fran or the Mets or are we lucky?  Is he going to be on the IL for a better part of the season?  Another fan favorite was Cruz?  Yes, he is getting older but the players we hold on to are not much better.  His stats may be down, but he was good in the clubhouse and good for the fans.  Then we hang on to players like Kepler?

I am a fan that wants a good stable team.  A team we can get to know and love and Arraez fits.  He is a fun player to watch and the AL batting champ?

I agree that he is fun to watch.  However if we want pitching we have to give.   His skill set is a gap to gap slap hitter and needs to hit .310-.320 to keep his OBS up there.   He is limited on defense and thus is expendaple.   His knees are a concern, but if we could get a Lopez for a package with Arraez as the lead we need to do this.  The Cruz trade was a very good one for the Twins.   We all loved Cruz, but the package we received in return was very good and we gave him a shot to pursue a title.   I would love to see a Blockbuster where we send Arraez, Kepler and Martin to the Marlins for Lopez and Luzardo

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Rocco refuses to hit him at the top of the order consistently

This is flat out wrong. Check 2022

Split G

Batting 1st 92

Batting 2nd 18

Batting 3rd 11

Batting 4th 2

Batting 5th 9

Batting 6th 5

Batting 7th 0

Batting 8th 1

Batting 9th 6

Top of the order 121 times out of 129 games started. When he batted "bottom of the order" he was usually pinch hitting.

[Kipp35]

The Twins need to do what others do to us, all the time; if you want the current AL Batting Champ with controllable years, it'll cost you more than just Pablo Lopez. They have to get more back than just one sub-.500 pitcher with controllable years.

[EGFTShaw]

As far as I can tell, the FO is taking the right stance with Arraez.

He is a keeper, unless we get some worth the value.  The Twins turned down a 1:1 trade for Lopez, not the Marlins per Dan Hayes on The Athletic.

But if the Marlins, (and they won't, or at least I wouldn't), bumped it to Alcantara, I am sure the Twins would include Arraez and +1 or +2.  But not Lopez.  And the FO is right to not give Arraez away.

It is not always HRs that you need.

If you need to bring home the runner from 3rd or 2nd, I want Arraez in the box and not Gallo.

 

[Richard Schlicht]

Arraez is a fan's player.  He is fun to watch, and he reacts to his surroundings in a BIG way!  It has been watching him the past couple of years, but that being said, he does have issues in the field, and until the Twins give him some good direction there, he's not going to get better.  I was hoping Carlos would be as good an influence on him as Nelson Cruz was!

 

[Dman]

 I would never trade Arraez for Pablo Lopez.  Trading Arraez for two years of a mid to back end starter seems like suicide to me.  If they are going to trade Arraez at least make it for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential.  If the Twins are not trading for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential I would just wait until the deadline and see what shakes out then.  

[Karbo]

A trade of Arraez better mean a ready-to-start good pitcher.

[specialiststeve]

23 minutes ago, mickster said:

   I would love to see a Blockbuster where we send Arraez, Kepler and Martin to the Marlins for Lopez and Luzardo

Bingo! Would not give up Arraez for "just" Lopez but with Luzardo who is "controllable" and has top of rotation stuff... and win in the playoffs... that would be something to seriously consider. 

[IndianaTwin]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is flat out wrong. Check 2022

Split G

Batting 1st 92

Batting 2nd 18

Batting 3rd 11

Batting 4th 2

Batting 5th 9

Batting 6th 5

Batting 7th 0

Batting 8th 1

Batting 9th 6

Top of the order 121 times out of 129 games started. When he batted "bottom of the order" he was usually pinch hitting.

Including that 34 of his last 36 starts had him in the lead off spot. 

[Heiny]

I'll have to admit that it took me some time to warm up to Arraez.  Initially, I didn't like his antics at the plate.  It looked silly to me and more as an attention getter.  But the more I watched, the more I got used to it and saw that, ok, this is just Luis being Luis.  I started to love his great AB's where he showed a great understanding of how to work the pitcher, how to foul off tough to hit pitches,  how to put the ball in play, loved the low SO's.  So, to sum it up, I have become a "Big Fan".  Howeverrrrr.  I can certainly see how it may or may not last considering his knees and a lack of a true defensive position.  And with his trade value being at a probable high, "if" they get a "good" return I would trade him in a second.  I think he is our best tradeable option.  I would trade him before Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff and probably a few others.  My humble opinon.

[August J Gloop]

Arraez is still technically a prospect. Teams trading for him will do so because they believe they can unlock some value via power or slotting him into a position that they have a real opening in.

His trade fate was sealed when he couldn't play left field. He's miscast at first, even if the initial results were encouraging. The team has 3-4 guys floating around MLB-AAA who better fit the first base profile, starting with Kiriloff.  

The Twins have a better defender and likely pretty good hitter at every single position on the diamond, so Luis becomes a bit of a roster problem. Add in that the fans are attached to him, and it puts him in value limbo. 

It's clear that there are multiple teams who want him, so that's good. Hopefully it's taking a bit because there is a bidding war. When it's all said and done, Arraez should be headlining a nice pitching upgrade situation. 

[Blyleven2011]

Is arraez expendable ??? 

Yes ...

Has arraez  peaked ??? 

No ...

He's 25 and still in his prime to produce more  , to trade the sparkplug would not help the twins offense  , he and a few others hit and led the offense consistently  ...

FO  hasn't been all that good at evaluating when a player has peaked and his trade value is most high , see Kepler and Sano  , yes they were enamored with keplers defense  and Sano's pure power so they hung on to them and watched the value diminish  , berrios they traded , why ??? ...

I guess because arraez won a batting title and made the all star game that his trade value is at a all time high , I don't agree ,  he's in his prime and will definitely repeat as a top hitter and add to his all-star appearances and continue to be OUR sparkplug ...

It's not arraez's job to hit homeruns and get rbis , his job is to get on base and his fellow teammates  job to drive him in ...

Arraez and Buxton are the 2 most exciting players to watch playing for the twins ... 

We all like arraez's hitting and his defense isn't all that bad at first and sometimes at second  , he will do and play anywhere you ask him too , HE'S A MAJOR LEAGUER AND A KEEPER  ...

There are other players that are a defensive liability in our system  , trade them , Sabato,  cavacio  and others ...

[GKuehl]

I love Arraez. He’s one of my favorite players on the team. However, something that doesn’t get talked about enough about his performance is that he’s not an everyday player because of his platoon splits. Against RHP he has a career OPS of .818 but against LHP he has a .670 OPS. 
 

With Kiriloff also batting LH, we’re lacking a natural platoon partner to start against lefties. 
 

I’m guessing Kyle Farmer and Arraez might actually turn into a platoon even if they don’t simply swap positions. 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

There are other players that are a defensive liability in our system  , trade them , Sabato,  cavacio  and others ...

I'm sure they could trade Sabato and Cavaco for someone about as good as AJ Alexy.

[killertwinfan]

The Twins FO has manage this asset very poorly ever since he has surfaced, why wouldn't they continue to do so?  Evidently they just don't value him as much as others. That being said, this team has several gaps, many shared with other teams in the league.  So they have to offer a good/great asset to close the gap. Trying to fill the pitching gap that allows us to get more power in the lineup is not a bad approach.  Arraez deserves to be an every day starter at second base to maximize his potential.  I hope he gets it. 

[gman]

I have never seen any articles written concerning surgery on his knees. Is it a knee problem or problems with weak muscles around his knees. After all, last winter and again this winter he is spending time strenthening his legs. Muscles support the knees. It is not surprising that after doing leg works outs last winter he set a career high for homeruns.

[Elliot]

I don’t think it is a question of what Arraez brings offensively to the team, but a concern about the entire package. His skills with the bat play just fine at any position. The concern involves where he plays, how often he plays, and who he blocks from advancing. Even a below average defensive 2B who hits like him is of great value. The problem is that it is starting to look like his days at second may be done, and not just due to the presence of Polanco. At 1B he is blocking Kiriloff, a problem only if Kiriloff is healthy enough to start to reach his potential. At DH he faces the same issue, only with more competition. 
I am not in favor of “dumping” Arraez (or Kepler, Gordon, Martin, …), but if the Twins are looking for a young, controllable SP with more upside than Lopez, they are going to have to offer up some value in return. On demonstrated skill level alone I would keep Arraez over Julien, Martin, Kiriloff, Larnach or other prospects not named Lee or Lewis. When you factor in health and lack of positional  value, it becomes a tougher call. 

[Lagputter]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I will never understand.  We wait and wait for prospects to be ready only to trade (sometimes give them away on a bad trade) and then we are back to looking for that star player.  Once they start to show that they could or will be a top player off they go.  Twins always looking for something better?  We had Berrios and traded him 2 seasons ago for players we have not seen yet.  Makes no sense!!!

We get a good player like Arraez and looking to get rid of him for another handful of prospects and the wait starts over.  With Correa, they got lucky he didn't stay with San Fran or the Mets or are we lucky?  Is he going to be on the IL for a better part of the season?  Another fan favorite was Cruz?  Yes, he is getting older but the players we hold on to are not much better.  His stats may be down, but he was good in the clubhouse and good for the fans.  Then we hang on to players like Kepler?

I am a fan that wants a good stable team.  A team we can get to know and love and Arraez fits.  He is a fun player to watch and the AL batting champ?

So, you want a stable team you can get to know rather than one that can win a World Series?  I love Arraez, but if that is the price of getting pitching that will get us closer to the goal of the World Series, then so be it.

[Byrdman]

I know i am a minority on this forum but i think our rotation is really good.  Even the 7/8/9 SP we have are good.  I want them to trade for and sign every single power arm there is out there for the bullpen.  The Bullpen is the weakest part of the team.  But we also need Rocco learn what a Long man is in the bullpen.  So they can pitch 2-3 innings after he pulls the SP after 4-5 innings. Look at Houston this year and how they used the pitchers. 

[HoskenPowell]

It's real simple.  Sell high on him.  Our biggest weakness for years AND years had been pitching,   Sell high and address pitching. He has no real position and most the places we try him he is below average at best. Package him with Keplar or one of the lhh corner outfielders and go get pitching from the Marlins or AZ.  I say Lopez and Luzardo for Araez and Kepler.   Araez also is poor in the running game.

[JD-TWINS]

56 minutes ago, mickster said:

I agree that he is fun to watch.  However if we want pitching we have to give.   His skill set is a gap to gap slap hitter and needs to hit .310-.320 to keep his OBS up there.   He is limited on defense and thus is expendaple.   His knees are a concern, but if we could get a Lopez for a package with Arraez as the lead we need to do this.  The Cruz trade was a very good one for the Twins.   We all loved Cruz, but the package we received in return was very good and we gave him a shot to pursue a title.   I would love to see a Blockbuster where we send Arraez, Kepler and Martin to the Marlins for Lopez and Luzardo

How about Martin - Kepler - Celestino for Luzardo??

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

We get a good player like Arraez and looking to get rid of him for another handful of prospects and the wait starts over.

We aren't talking about about trading him for prospects. We are talking about trading him for mlb starting pitching. While I'd like a bit better return than Lopez, and I'd hate to lose Luis, it is the way to go about it.

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

Arraez is still technically a prospect.

Nope

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I get your idea, but the Twins are always letting a good and popular players go for "young, controllable pitching" that never seems to happen.  We traded Berrios away for two players we have yet to see.  

We have seen SWR ... he pitched at the end of last season and we will see him this year, too. And he projects to be very good. I was and still am a fan of that trade, but then I wasn't a huge fan of Berrios. He wasn't going to stay with the Twins. Talks to extend him went nowhere and he's not doing that well with the Blue Jays. I get trading away favorite players ... I HATED losing Escobar. But, again, it was the right thing to do and now we are enjoying what Duran brings. If a team is unable to sign pitching, this is how it goes.