Pablo Lopez update via Ken Rosenthal

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, AstrosTwins said:

It came from Jim Bowden so take it for what it’s worth, but he says the Twins could have Lopez for Arraez and Kepler. Twins said no due to not wanting to part with Arraez. I think the Twins need to make that deal. Pitching is invaluable. You win in the playoffs with pitching. Getting Lopez lengthens our staff which helps the bullpen. Those two players for Lopez isn’t an overpay so the Twins need to get this done before the Cardinals or someone else step up. 

Wasn't the rumor Arraez OR Kepler? Arraez AND Kepler is a massive overpay for Pablo Lopez.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, AstrosTwins said:

I couldn’t agree with you more. Lopez would be a phenomenal add to this rotation and I think the Twins are better defensively than the Marlins, which means Lopez should be even better in Minnesota. The only concern I have is that you only have him for 2 years, but he’s young and we have quite a few pitchers on expiring contracts. Just extend him. The Twins need to get this done.

"Just extend him." If only it were that easy. 

[nicksaviking]

Hayes and Rosenthal seem to be getting different information if Hayes is saying the Marlins want Arraez and Rosenthal says his bat isn't big enough.

[laloesch]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wasn't the rumor Arraez OR Kepler? Arraez AND Kepler is a massive overpay for Pablo Lopez.

Considering the amount of team control left on Lopez absolutely it's an overpay.

[CoasterProductions]

Any deal involving Arraez for Lopez I would reject. I would do Kepler and Larnach and maybe Pagan (just to get rid of him, cause he was a mess) for Lopez.

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

Any deal involving Arraez for Lopez I would reject. I would do Kepler and Larnach and maybe Pagan (just to get rid of him, cause he was a mess) for Lopez.

I wouldn't even give up Larnach in that deal. That's still an overpay. 5 years of Larnach is worth more than 2 years of Lopez. I'm willing to throw Pagan into any deal. But 2 years of Kepler for 2 years of Lopez is a pretty close match. Kepler costs a little more, and is older, so it's not crazy to think the Twins would have to throw in a little more, but certainly not someone of Larnach's control, upside, and proximity to the majors.

The Marlins tried to get Gleyber Torres for Lopez at the deadline last year. The Yankees said no. Max has more WAR than Torres from 2020-2022. Torres is younger, but costs more (both have 2 years of control). The Twins should not be giving up any of their young, MLB ready players for Lopez. None of them. He's simply not worth that.

[MGX]

23 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

If they wanted Kepler for Lopez, it would be a done deal already. My guess is they are asking about Miranda. To them I say the only way you get him is in a package for your Cy Young winner. Might be time to explore other avenues if they are coming back acting like Aaraez for Lopez straight up isn't enough. 

Thankfully, the Twins have already said they won't trade Arraez for Lopez. That would be a terrible trade for the Twins. We don't have a need for Lopez, a pitcher with 2 years of control who would slot in our rotation as a # 4 or 5 makes no sense. If we're talking with the Marlins, Cabrera or Luzardo is all we should be interested in, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

On what planet would Lopez be our 4th best pitcher?

[MGX]

Why would Lopez be any higher in the rotation based on what he's done. He had two good months to start the season last year & after that he wasn't very good the rest of the way. That's supposd to be his "breakout" year. Prior to that the most IP he had was 111.1, I'd rather see Ryan, Gray, Mahle & eventually Maeda pitch in front of him until he proves more. He's 26 years old with 2 years of control, from a Twins perspective where is the value with him, just don't see it. Like someone posted earlier, if they want to take Kepler straight up for him than fine take a shot on him, but it's not like this guy has proven he belongs at the top of a rotation.

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

On what planet would Lopez be our 4th best pitcher?

I think you could make a solid case that Gray, Ryan, Mahle and even Ober are better. Especially after looking at Lopez's numbers from June through the end of last year.

I mean, others could argue he's the team's best pitcher too. Just pointing out that there's no slam dunk pecking order for these guys.

[howeda7]

On 1/17/2023 at 3:14 PM, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

 

Yes on Kepler. No on Arreaz. Hell no on Larnach.

[howeda7]

6 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think we’ll be blowing the doors off the AL Central. That doesn’t really matter with these 2 pitchers anyway. They’re on expiring contracts and highly unlikely to be extended. I’d rather get something for them and by July 31, hopefully one or more of SWR, Varland, Winder, or Balazovic is ready to take a rotation spot. 

If they're within 5 games or so, they're not going to sell though. Nor should they.

[howeda7]

2 hours ago, AstrosTwins said:

It came from Jim Bowden so take it for what it’s worth, but he says the Twins could have Lopez for Arraez and Kepler. Twins said no due to not wanting to part with Arraez. I think the Twins need to make that deal. Pitching is invaluable. You win in the playoffs with pitching. Getting Lopez lengthens our staff which helps the bullpen. Those two players for Lopez isn’t an overpay so the Twins need to get this done before the Cardinals or someone else step up. 

it is an overpay, IMO. The upgrade from Maeda or Ober to Lopez isn't that great. Losing your best hitter and replacing him with unknown Alex Kiriloff or Kyle Farmer hurts more than the mild pitching upgrade.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think you could make a solid case that Gray, Ryan, Mahle and even Ober are better. Especially after looking at Lopez's numbers from June through the end of last year.

I mean, others could argue he's the team's best pitcher too. Just pointing out that there's no slam dunk pecking order for these guys.

Fair. It's why I don't want to give up a ton for two years of him 

[howeda7]

Paddock has some value as a piece they can flip. I would do Kepler and Paddock for Lopez.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, howeda7 said:

Paddock has some value as a piece they can flip. I would do Kepler and Paddock for Lopez.

No way. 

[howeda7]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

No way. 

Do you think Paddock is better than Lopez? I view them as about even, but one is more likely to be hurt.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Do you think Paddock is better than Lopez? I view them as about even, but one is more likely to be hurt.

Lopez has two years, that's the issue for me in that deal. I wouldn't be angry if they did it, I just would disagree. But it's likely fair, given the injury risk. 

[Craig Arko]

53 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

On what planet would Lopez be our 4th best pitcher?

Gallifrey.

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Do you think Paddock is better than Lopez? I view them as about even, but one is more likely to be hurt.

Trading a pitcher who will only be here in 2023 and 2024 for a pitcher who will only be here in 2024 and 2025 is just such a break-even move. They've got to get out of this cycle of pitchers with two-year windows or they'll be condemned to it in perpetuity.

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lopez has two years, that's the issue for me in that deal. I wouldn't be angry if they did it, I just would disagree. But it's likely fair, given the injury risk. 

Realistically, Paddock has two years too. I very much doubt he pitches in 2023. I think Lopez is better or at least has a much higher floor. I'd throw in Kepler to make that upgrade.

[howeda7]

56 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Trading a pitcher who will only be here in 2023 and 2024 for a pitcher who will only be here in 2024 and 2025 is just such a break-even move. They've got to get out of this cycle of pitchers with two-year windows or they'll be condemned to it in perpetuity.

I don't really see how trading Paddock is the issue then. Lopez has two years of team control regardless of what we give up. I'd much rather give up Paddock than Larnach or Woods-Richardson etc.

[PseudoSABR]

40 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Realistically, Paddock has two years too. I very much doubt he pitches in 2023. I think Lopez is better or at least has a much higher floor. I'd throw in Kepler to make that upgrade.

From the team's perspective, they'll want both Paddack and Lopez in the rotation beyond 2023.  It's that Gray, Mahle, Maeda will be free agents, that lead to Paddack's extension, and it's that fact that draws their interest in Lopez, too.  The Twins need more possibilities in the rotation for 2024 and beyond, not less. 

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, howeda7 said:

If they're within 5 games or so, they're not going to sell though. Nor should they.

I disagree. If Gray and Maeda are kept the entire season, there is another season down the drain not seeing what the prospects can do. 

Opening day rotation if they acquire Lopez (order them how you please):

Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Lopez

August 1 rotation:

Ryan, Mahle, Lopez, Ober, one of Winder/SWR/Varland/Balazovic 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, howeda7 said:

Realistically, Paddock has two years too. I very much doubt he pitches in 2023. I think Lopez is better or at least has a much higher floor. I'd throw in Kepler to make that upgrade.

He has the two years when two or three of grey, Mahle ; and Maeda are gone though. I truly think they have to aim higher than Lopez, or for a guy that might be better but with more years left.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I disagree. If Gray and Maeda are kept the entire season, there is another season down the drain not seeing what the prospects can do. 

Opening day rotation if they acquire Lopez (order them how you please):

Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Lopez

August 1 rotation:

Ryan, Mahle, Lopez, Ober, one of Winder/SWR/Varland/Balazovic 

If they are leading the division, they aren't selling. Not this year. Not after last year's collapse. 

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they are leading the division, they aren't selling. Not this year. Not after last year's collapse. 

If they don’t and the prospects remain in AAA purgatory I’ll be driving the “pipeline is a myth” bandwagon. 

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If they don’t and the prospects remain in AAA purgatory I’ll be driving the “pipeline is a myth” bandwagon. 

Based on the players they have doing well? Mind. Boggling. If the pitchers they have are doing well, you want them traded, or you'll assume their replacements are bad because they didn't trade players doing well? 

[Greglw3]

On 1/17/2023 at 3:37 PM, chpettit19 said:

Kepler for Lopez is fine with me. Literally no other hitter on our 40-man that I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. Well Celestino, but I can't imagine they'd consider Celestino a bigger bat than Kepler. But those are the only 2 hitters on the 40-man I'd even consider for someone who'd come in as our 5th best starter.

5th best starter??? 180 IP 157 H ~1.16 WHIP in 2022. 3.52 cumulative ERA over last 3 seasons. That’s not 5th best or if it is, we win the World Series!

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Paddock has some value as a piece they can flip. I would do Kepler and Paddock for Lopez.

I see the front office having big plans for Paddock this year.  He isnt getting traded.. Ditto Pagan.  That trade has to has to work out for them.