Pablo Lopez update via Ken Rosenthal

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

 

[DJL44]

In what way is Kepler a bigger bat than Arraez?

[Puckett34]

Just now, DJL44 said:

In what way is Kepler a bigger bat than Arraez?

Maybe he carries a physically larger one due to the fact he is a larger human?

[Cris E]

It won't be Kepler.   He's got enough of a track record that his 2019 boom ball season is pretty widely discounted.  If they don't want a 25 year old Carew at 1b then you'll need to break out the pre-arb power hitters. We don't have many with enough history to have any juice. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Cris E said:

If they don't want a 25 year old Carew at 1b

Arraez plays a lot more like 37 year old Carew.

[chpettit19]

Kepler for Lopez is fine with me. Literally no other hitter on our 40-man that I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. Well Celestino, but I can't imagine they'd consider Celestino a bigger bat than Kepler. But those are the only 2 hitters on the 40-man I'd even consider for someone who'd come in as our 5th best starter.

[Battle ur tail off]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kepler for Lopez is fine with me. Literally no other hitter on our 40-man that I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. Well Celestino, but I can't imagine they'd consider Celestino a bigger bat than Kepler. But those are the only 2 hitters on the 40-man I'd even consider for someone who'd come in as our 5th best starter.

If they wanted Kepler for Lopez, it would be a done deal already. My guess is they are asking about Miranda. To them I say the only way you get him is in a package for your Cy Young winner. Might be time to explore other avenues if they are coming back acting like Aaraez for Lopez straight up isn't enough. 

[Craig Arko]

How about Gallo?

[Tibs]

So Luis is listed at 5'10" 175 lbs

Who around here has a bat that is at least 5'11" 176 lbs?

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

If they wanted Kepler for Lopez, it would be a done deal already. My guess is they are asking about Miranda. To them I say the only way you get him is in a package for your Cy Young winner. Might be time to explore other avenues if they are coming back acting like Aaraez for Lopez straight up isn't enough. 

I don't know that it'd be a done deal, but only because the Twins seem to value Kepler more than the average fan. His WAR numbers are nice. But I agree with the general idea here. Although, I also think Arraez is valued higher by fans than FOs around the league.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

 

Be Kepler.  Not Larnach.

[DocBauer]

I wouldn't mind having Lopez at all. Still only 26yo and might be about ready to take another step. But his K per 9 IP is mediocre and 2022 was his 1st season with more than 21 GS.

Does he really project as a potential breakout stud? The numbers seem to indicate really solid middle starter. 

[Vanimal46]

12 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Does he really project as a potential breakout stud? The numbers seem to indicate really solid middle starter. 

Seems to me that’s what we’re going for here. Having 5-6 options that are considered mid rotation guys. Not a bad strategy since we won’t be in the mix for a unanimous front of the rotation pitcher. 

[Doctor Gast]

Seems like posturing to me. (MN)You can't have Arraez (MIA) Well I don't want him

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Seems to me that’s what we’re going for here. Having 5-6 options that are considered mid rotation guys. Not a bad strategy since we won’t be in the mix for a unanimous front of the rotation pitcher. 

Agreed. And the way to go when you don't have a dominate #1. And my problem isn't Lopez per say. Maybe the Twins really like something about him and think he's just going to take off the next year or two. But I don't see a 6 man rotation. And while long and middle relief needs to come from somewhere, what about Winder, SWR, and Varland as young arms that are ready or "oh so close" rather than adding someone on a 2yr deal? 

Does Lopez have the Twins trading someone like Gray then? I know we 3 guys who CAN be gone next year, but any of them could be extended as well.

Nothing against Lopez, as I've stated, I'm just not sure what the plan is here.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins do need a starter with upside. The top dozen pitchers in baseball are simply not available. Either Luzardo or Cabrera should be the conversation. Arraez or Miranda plus Larnach or Kepler should be enough to acquire either of the Marlins young starters. A gamble worth taking for the potential. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

what about Winder, SWR, and Varland as young arms that are ready or "oh so close" rather than adding someone on a 2yr deal?

What about them? One of them can be a long relief arm out of the pen right away. If they’re blowing the doors off in St Paul they’ll find their way across the river when it’s time. 

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Does Lopez have the Twins trading someone like Gray then? I know we 3 guys who CAN be gone next year, but any of them could be extended as well.

Probably. I’m not thrilled about extending a 33 year old Sonny Gray. Kenta Maeda if he rebounds will be dealt by the deadline too. 

[DocBauer]

41 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

What about them? One of them can be a long relief arm out of the pen right away. If they’re blowing the doors off in St Paul they’ll find their way across the river when it’s time. 

Probably. I’m not thrilled about extending a 33 year old Sonny Gray. Kenta Maeda if he rebounds will be dealt by the deadline too. 

Hey, I'm right there with you. There is no reason to not have middle/long relief with the arms on hand and let them push for rotation spots. The Cardinals are an example brought up often where they will use young SP in the pen to add, while getting their feet wet and move to the rotation.

And I'm not saying the Twins should extend Gray or Maeda. But I think there's a lot of life still in Gray's arm, even at 33, as long as he puts the work in to keep his hamstrings solid. Not sure about Maeda being traded. Maybe. I think if the Twins are at the top of the ALC, Maeda is kept unless one of the kids are proving they are ready. I think Mahle is the wild card. Just my opinion, but I think they see him just about to hit his career high. I believe they traded for him with the idea of an extension. 

I'm just saying...and I think we're mostly on the same page...extensions are possible. And I think all hands on deck are possible. But I think Mahle is the #1 target. I'm just not certain a trade of talent for a mid rotation SP like Lopez for 2yrs is the right move with what's available and coming up.

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Hey, I'm right there with you. There is no reason to not have middle/long relief with the arms on hand and let them push for rotation spots. The Cardinals are an example brought up often where they will use young SP in the pen to add, while getting their feet wet and move to the rotation.

And I'm not saying the Twins should extend Gray or Maeda. But I think there's a lot of life still in Gray's arm, even at 33, as long as he puts the work in to keep his hamstrings solid. Not sure about Maeda being traded. Maybe. I think if the Twins are at the top of the ALC, Maeda is kept unless one of the kids are proving they are ready. I think Mahle is the wild card. Just my opinion, but I think they see him just about to hit his career high. I believe they traded for him with the idea of an extension. 

I'm just saying...and I think we're mostly on the same page...extensions are possible. And I think all hands on deck are possible. But I think Mahle is the #1 target. I'm just not certain a trade of talent for a mid rotation SP like Lopez for 2yrs is the right move with what's available and coming up.

I’m not sure we are on the same page Doc. I think Gray and Maeda are both gone by the trade deadline. Mahle I agree is the wild card and I’m happy to extend him if his shoulder holds up. Mahle is only 28 so I’d be more than happy to extend him 4-5 years. Knowing that there is ample room in the rotation coming up in the next 7 months, we can take on another mid rotation arm and wait for one of SWR, Winder, Varland, Balazovic, etc. to be so good it’s impossible to ignore them getting a call up to the majors. 

[Squirrel]

52 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I think Gray and Maeda are both gone by the trade deadline.

So you think the Twins are going to be out of the picture by the deadline?

[tony&rodney]

MLBTradeRumors and others must be following the ongoing Twins-Marlins scenarios Continuous press and posts all seem to agree that there is common benefit for these two teams to complete a trade. Personally, I hope they find something that works for each team. The Marlins are deep in pitching and the Twins have corner players galore with Lewis, Lee, Martin, and Julien coming soon. 

 

[AZTwin]

Pablo López is a fine pitcher but let’s not pretend like he’s a bonafide ace. He’s more like a 2 or 3 in the rotation type guy.  He had a 3.0 WAR last season.  If they are going to pretend like he should command significantly more than the batting champ who had a 4.4 WAR last season, then just move on.  Perhaps could try and throw in a guy like Wallner but then probably need a low level guy in return as well.  Someone like Yiddi Cappa

[TopGunn#22]

I just don't understand the idea that Pablo Lopez is somehow an "average" pitcher.  He's the same age as Joe Ryan.  Last year he threw 180 innings and struck out 174 with a WHIP of 1.17  Ryan threw 147 and struck out 151 with a WHIP of 1.10.  For 2023 here's how each is projected to perform:  Lopez 10 wins 187 IP 190 K's 3.75 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP.  Ryan 9 wins 161 IP 157 K's 4.20 ERA 1.20 WHIP.  Neither one is yet considered an "Ace" but at 26 years old each has room to grow and are pretty good right now.  With a glut of LH hitting 0F'ers and Rodriguez getting closer not to mention the #5 pick in the June draft If I had to give up Arraez or Larnach to get Lopez I'd do it in a heartbeat.  Especially with Lewis, Lee and Julien knocking on the door.  I also like Cabrera and Luzardo but I'd be angling for a bigger trade and see if I could get Sixto Sanchez as a throw in.  Stockpile young arms with electric stuff and let the cream rise to the top.  The Twins have more bats getting really close so deal a Kepler, Larnach, Arraez, even a Jeffers Vazquez is our guy for the next three years, get another vet backup on the cheap) to get a couple great young arms.  

[Vanimal46]

9 hours ago, Squirrel said:

So you think the Twins are going to be out of the picture by the deadline?

I don’t think we’ll be blowing the doors off the AL Central. That doesn’t really matter with these 2 pitchers anyway. They’re on expiring contracts and highly unlikely to be extended. I’d rather get something for them and by July 31, hopefully one or more of SWR, Varland, Winder, or Balazovic is ready to take a rotation spot. 

[nicksaviking]

I'd trade Kepler for a box of rocks, so while I don't value Lopez as high as their other pitchers, I'd do this deal in a heartbeat assuming the other piece(s) going along with Kepler aren't terribly frightful.

Bummer about Arraez though. Looks like the Marlins value him about like I do, which is far less than many Twins fans. I was hoping they'd overlook him being a one-dimensional player, but I guess not. Guessing other teams won't either.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd trade Kepler for a box of rocks, so while I don't value Lopez as high as their other pitchers, I'd do this deal in a heartbeat assuming the other piece(s) going along with Kepler aren't terribly frightful.

Bummer about Arraez though. Looks like the Marlins value him about like I do, which is far less than many Twins fans. I was hoping they'd overlook him being a one-dimensional player, but I guess not. Guessing other teams won't either.

Ditto. Also, I've been sick and it's pouring rain on my golf trip today, so I guess I'm posting a lot......

[laloesch]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins do need a starter with upside. The top dozen pitchers in baseball are simply not available. Either Luzardo or Cabrera should be the conversation. Arraez or Miranda plus Larnach or Kepler should be enough to acquire either of the Marlins young starters. A gamble worth taking for the potential. 

I get the impression that is the real candy in that debate. I'd rather see the Twins go big and go after Luzardo or Cabrera.

[AstrosTwins]

It came from Jim Bowden so take it for what it’s worth, but he says the Twins could have Lopez for Arraez and Kepler. Twins said no due to not wanting to part with Arraez. I think the Twins need to make that deal. Pitching is invaluable. You win in the playoffs with pitching. Getting Lopez lengthens our staff which helps the bullpen. Those two players for Lopez isn’t an overpay so the Twins need to get this done before the Cardinals or someone else step up. 

[AstrosTwins]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

 

I just don't understand the idea that Pablo Lopez is somehow an "average" pitcher. 

 

I couldn’t agree with you more. Lopez would be a phenomenal add to this rotation and I think the Twins are better defensively than the Marlins, which means Lopez should be even better in Minnesota. The only concern I have is that you only have him for 2 years, but he’s young and we have quite a few pitchers on expiring contracts. Just extend him. The Twins need to get this done.

[laloesch]

2 minutes ago, AstrosTwins said:

It came from Jim Bowden so take it for what it’s worth, but he says the Twins could have Lopez for Arraez and Kepler. Twins said no due to not wanting to part with Arraez. I think the Twins need to make that deal. Pitching is invaluable. You win in the playoffs with pitching. Getting Lopez lengthens our staff which helps the bullpen. Those two players for Lopez isn’t an overpay so the Twins need to get this done before the Cardinals or someone else step up. 

Dan Hayes from the Athletic was saying the Marlins asked for Arraez one for one for Lopez and the Twins said they weren't interested, but were open to bigger trade computations.  My trouble with Lopez is that he's a free agent for the 2024 -25 season.