Nick Gordon's Future

[stringer bell]

During the first half of the disappointing 2021 season, there was speculation as to whether Nick Gordon would remain on the active roster or be subjected to the DFA process. He was nominally the second backup option for the Twins at both second base and shortstop so there was no clear path for Gordon to get playing time. 

With the onslaught on injuries in the outfield in '21 (remember Rob Refsnider and Kyle Garlick playing their first professional games in center) Gordon was given an opportunity to get playing time as an outfielder. Gordon eventually played in 45 games in the outfield, including 34 in center field. For someone who had never played there, he did surprisingly well. Adding the ability to play outfield including the key defensive position of center certainly added to Gordon's value going into 2022.

In 2022, Gordon made the club as a utility infielder/outfielder and again got the majority of his playing time on the grass. playing in 95 games in the outfield including 62 in left field. Defensive metrics for what is still a small sample size indicate the Gordon is an acceptable outfielder and probably, with a bit more experience, could be above average in left field. Meanwhile, as a hitter Gordon has improved. In 216 plate appearances in '21, Gordon was worth -5 runs as a hitter. In 2023, in about twice as many plate appearances, he was worth +6 at the plate. Much of his improvement probably comes from experience and another positive factor in gradually increasing strength as he has mostly recovered from career-threatening intestinal problems. Gordon has shown he belongs in the major leagues and the trends are pointing north as an offensive player.

Roster projections include Gordon as a utility player or perhaps the starting left fielder if Max Kepler is dealt away. I don't know if I am ready to declare Gordon a solid utility player or proclaim him as an every day outfielder. First of all, (again SSS) Gordon's metrics as an infielder are not good. At both second and short he grades out below average on range and defensive runs saved. He has played only six innings at third base and three innings in right field, so I wouldn't say he's a utility option at those positions. As a hitter, Nick is limited by rather extreme platoon splits, with only a .532 OPS versus left handers. Gordon only stole six bases (caught four times) last year so despite very good speed, his impact on the bases has been minimal. 

The Twins currently have a bunch of left handed hitters as candidates for the two corner outfield spots. Max Kepler and Joey Gallo are veterans and both are good defenders. For Gordon to get ample playing time as a corner outfielder, where he's been at his best defensively, he will have to displace one of Gallo or Kepler plus be better than Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. There are DH at bats available and Kepler in particular has been rumored to be on the block, 

Despite the improvement Nick Gordon has made and acknowledging his progress as a hitter and improved health, I think Gordon is a trade candidate, particularly since Kyle Farmer looks like the principle backup in the middle infield. I don't know how other organizations would value Gordon and whether he could get a suitable return, but despite what he has done in the last two years, Nick Gordon could well not have much of a role with the 2023 Twins.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I disagree. The trade candidate is Kepler. Kepler is what he is; an above average fielding corner OF with a below average bat for his position who doesn’t play CF. Gordon is a better hitting OF, 113 ops+ last season, who’s is just learning the OF. You would expect his fielding and base running to improve over time and he can and will play CF. Gordon us cheap and out of options. I think Gordon will be in the 2023 roster either as the starter in LF or as the 4th OF behind Buxton, Gallo and Larnach. Kepler is the best trade candidate as part of a package for pitching from the Marlins. 

[Sean.h]

48 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think Gordon will be in the 2023 roster either as the starter in LF or as the 4th OF behind Buxton, Gallo and Larnach.

No contending team would use Gordon as a starting OF.

As a versatile backup for many positions? now there is where Gordon can potentially fit. But since we have Farmer in the infield and Celestino in the OF, there is redundancy. we could trade both Gordon and Kepler. Depends on the return obviously...

[DJL44]

Nick Gordon is a good option for a team that is above the luxury tax (Yankees). The Twins could trade him for an equally good but more expensive player and buy a prospect or two.

[Doctor Gast]

Last year Gordon was our most reliable OFer; offensively, defensively & health wise (why do we want to trade him?). We ranked very high in CF with Gordon being our LH option. If you want to take Gordon out of the equation that will change the results very much. I don't care if Gallo played CF for a poor OF team, he's not a CFer. Signing Gallo was one of FO most bonehead move they have ever done (we don't need another Sano to replace the one we let go), trading Gordon would only compound this mistake.

I'd bench Gallo & trade him as soon as possible (that'd never happen, because they can't admit they made a mistake). But even so they should send Celestino & Wallner to AAA. Kiriloff shouldn't play OF because of his wrists. Larnach should be taken slowly & maybe sent down to AAA for awhile. That leaves Buxton CF, Gordon LF, Kepler RF & Gallo 4th OF until he can prove he can hit. FO has put themselves into a very tight situation.

 

 

[stringer bell]

My reason for suggesting Gordon might be considered for a trade is that he isn’t a clear candidate for left field duty if one or both of Kirilloff and Larnach return to health. Left field is mostly a “bat first” position and the upside for K & L remains higher than for Gordon. The other part of this is his utility as a left handed hitter who plays second and short (pretty poorly-not as well as Farmer) and center field (acceptably) isn’t of that much use. 
Joey Gallo is going to play, at least to start the season and if he and Kepler are are the roster, the three outfield starters will be Kepler, Gallo and Buxton. 

[Dman]

I guess my main reason for wanting to keep Gordon is he can cover all three outfield spots.  He has the arm for right, the speed for center and while not ideal in left, because he is not a power bat he can play there.  I don't really trust Celestino as a viable bat at the MLB level just yet so I like knowing the Twins have Gordon there just in case.  When\if the Twins get Lewis back then I think Gordon is more expendable.  If Martin can prove is ready for the next step then I think Gordon is more expendable. Even last year I recommended trading Arraez or Gordon to remove the potential infield glut but after watching Gordon last year he really seems like a glue guy to me and the timing just doesn't feel right for trading him IMO.

I think Farmer is a better option in the infield than Gordon and he brings a right handed bat which is important for this team but the one thing he can't do is play center and we have an injury prone center fielder on the roster.  In the end if they traded Gordon I don't think it would be the end of the world and if it doesn't happen this year there is a good possibility it happens next year anyway.  There isn't going to be room for everyone.  Still the Twins like Gordon, his teammates especially Buxton like Gordon, so I just don't see them trading Gordon.

 

[chpettit19]

Like so much involving the Twins these days, this all depends on the health, and production, of Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis. If those 4 guys can stay healthy, and produce, Gordon becomes expendable. If they can't he's more important. I think the Twins should be calling around and seeing what's available on the trade market, and what the costs are. But there doesn't feel like a bunch of great deals to be made out there for this team.

I'm not a Pablo Lopez fan so a deal for him doesn't intrigue me. I don't think the Twins have the pieces to make a trade for an actual ace feasible (I'm not trading Lee, Lewis, or Rodriguez). I can see the appeal of bringing in another mid-rotation starter to just make them a little deeper to cover for injuries, but I don't think they should be getting into any bidding wars over those guys. Gordon or Kepler straight up for another mid-rotation guy? Ok. I can get on board and see the logic there. But if this is the squad they roll into the season with I'm good with that, too.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If we don't see a substantial trade of an outfielder (likely Kepler) and an infielder (Arraez? Gordon? Kiriloff? Polanco??) it would seem that we will start the season with a bench of Catcher, Farmer, Gordon, and one of the Kiriloff/Larnach/Celestino group.  Otherwise, all of the latter group of guys wind up starting the season in St. Paul, which is not a terrible outcome either.  They could probably all use it for either some seasoning (Celestino), or to gain some confidence/rehab (Larnach/Kiriloff).  I do really like Gordon as he fits in so many places.  He may not be a great defender (but he's young, athletic, and still learning), but he is a decent hitter and versatility gives them a guy to use in many situations.  It gets messier when Lewis or Martin force their way to the majors later this summer, but that will be a nice problem to have and to solve at the trade deadline.

[FlyingFinn]

Gordon had a great year in 2022. Is he ever going to hit lefties well? I think most would say no. Is he ever going to be a backup to any infield position? Many would say no. Emergency option, yes. Does he play RF? The Twins never use him there. The debate is whether he is good in LF or CF or will be good. He's not a natural out there and I think he doesn't get a great jump on the ball when it's hit (that's just my eye test so someone can dispute that). Will he hit RH pitching like last year or even better? Those who say he was a "one year wonder" in that department say no and others say yes. My hunch is no but that is a total guess on my part. He has good speed but not great speed on the bases. I really wish he would learn to be a great bunter and make the infielders honor that. I think the ceiling is still higher on Kirilloff and Larnach and I'm taking that chance.

The Twins really need to move Kepler or Gordon. I want a RH hitting OF so Celestino can actually get a year in AAA as he has been robbed of his development by being forced to fill in for the Twins. See if he can develop power and learn to run the bases. The trade could be for a quality arm in the pen as well. Don't get rid of either Kepler or Gordon just to make a move. Make a good trade. 

[Riverbrian]

I'll just use 150 as an arbitrary line. I think 150 is a significant amount of plate appearances. 

The Twins had 15 players with over 150 PA's last year.

Does anyone want to bet me that we will have at least 13 players make over 150 trips to the plate in 2023. I'll take the bet. 

White Sox - 16

Marlins - 16

Cubs - 16

Cardinals - 15

Red Sox - 15

Rays - 15

Padres - 15

Giants - 15

Nationals - 14

Rockies - 14

Reds - 14

Pirates - 14

Mariners - 14

A's - 14

Astros - 13

Yankees - 13

Royals - 13

Tigers - 13

D-Backs - 13

Dodgers - 12

Phillies - 12

Guardians - 12

Rangers - 12

Angels - 12

Brewers - 12

Braves - 12

Blue Jays - 11

Mets - 11

Orioles - 11

Gordon will play. 

[jkcarew]

The ONLY reason Farmer would be more attractive than Gordon is because this roster has been mismanaged to the point of being ridiculously vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Gordon is a much better overall offensive player and he’s way more flexible defensively as well.

IMHO, Farmer was acquired as a whole-filler under the assumption that the club was going to lose Correa…but now…well, it’s tough to carry a specialist for left-handed pitching on a 25-man that consists of 13 pitchers. And it’s not like this guy is Nelson Cruz against lefties.

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The ONLY reason Farmer would be more attractive than Gordon is because this roster has been mismanaged to the point of being ridiculously vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Gordon is a much better overall offensive player and he’s way more flexible defensively as well.

IMHO, Farmer was acquired as a whole-filler under the assumption that the club was going to lose Correa…but now…well, it’s tough to carry a specialist for left-handed pitching on a 25-man that consists of 13 pitchers. And it’s not like this guy is Nelson Cruz against lefties.

Kyle Farmer had a .948 OPS against left handed pitching and has a lifetime .837 OPS. That's better than anyone on the Twins last year. Farmer is a better defensive middle infielder than Gordon and is an experienced third baseman. Against left handed pitching, it would seem that Farmer is the much better option to be in the lineup in the infield, especially given Gordon's struggles versus lefties (SSS). 

That makes Gordon the second backup in the three infield positions, at best. There are a whole bunch of left handed hitting options in left field and right field (Gordon has played single digit innings in right) so it seems that the major utility asset is his ability to play center field. I think Austin Martin and Royce Lewis are on the horizon as RH corner and CF options. Injuries could change all of this, but despite establishing himself as a major league player last year, Nick Gordon may not get much playing time and could be expendable.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I disagree. The trade candidate is Kepler. Kepler is what he is; an above average fielding corner OF with a below average bat for his position who doesn’t play CF. Gordon is a better hitting OF, 113 ops+ last season, who’s is just learning the OF. You would expect his fielding and base running to improve over time and he can and will play CF. Gordon us cheap and out of options. I think Gordon will be in the 2023 roster either as the starter in LF or as the 4th OF behind Buxton, Gallo and Larnach. Kepler is the best trade candidate as part of a package for pitching from the Marlins. 

Curious about the Kepler "doesn't play CF" comment.  159 career games in CF vs. 34 for Gordon.  Explain......

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Kyle Farmer had a .948 OPS against left handed pitching and has a lifetime .837 OPS. That's better than anyone on the Twins last year. Farmer is a better defensive middle infielder than Gordon and is an experienced third baseman. Against left handed pitching, it would seem that Farmer is the much better option to be in the lineup in the infield, especially given Gordon's struggles versus lefties (SSS). 

That makes Gordon the second backup in the three infield positions, at best. There are a whole bunch of left handed hitting options in left field and right field (Gordon has played single digit innings in right) so it seems that the major utility asset is his ability to play center field. I think Austin Martin and Royce Lewis are on the horizon as RH corner and CF options. Injuries could change all of this, but despite establishing himself as a major league player last year, Nick Gordon may not get much playing time and could be expendable.

There will be WAY more at-bats available against righties than lefties, even for the Twins. Farmer has 400 career PA against lefties and it’s taken him through his age 32 season to get that many. Meanwhile, in over 1000 PA against righties, his OPS is 650. Meanwhile, the defensive positions Farmer is best at happen to be the only places we ALREADY have guys that can handle left-handed pitching. You gonna sit Correa or Polanco or Miranda against tough lefties so you can play Farmer? How often? Gonna put him in center when Buxton goes down? Yes we need another right-handed bat. Just not Farmer.

[Riverbrian]

Giving every day playing time to players that are not producing every day playing time numbers is how your team ends up in the draft lottery. 

Not being able to find at-bats for a player who hit much better, making the minimum, under control for 5 more years because you are giving all of the at-bats to players who hit much worse, making a combined 19.5M, both with just one year left in a Twins uniform. That is how your team ends up in the draft lottery every year to follow. 

Unless of course... Gallo and Kepler start producing every day playing time numbers. 

Are we expecting them to do that?

Are we expecting Gallo and Kepler to perform so well that we are willing to kill younger players because you can't live without them in the lineup.  

 

[stringer bell]

Miranda can play first or DH against lefties. Polanco has much worse splits against left handed pitching. Farmer definitely should be in the lineup every single time against left handed pitching. 

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

If we don't see a substantial trade of an outfielder (likely Kepler) and an infielder (Arraez? Gordon? Kiriloff? Polanco??) it would seem that we will start the season with a bench of Catcher, Farmer, Gordon, and one of the Kiriloff/Larnach/Celestino group.  Otherwise, all of the latter group of guys wind up starting the season in St. Paul, which is not a terrible outcome either.  They could probably all use it for either some seasoning (Celestino), or to gain some confidence/rehab (Larnach/Kiriloff).  I do really like Gordon as he fits in so many places.  He may not be a great defender (but he's young, athletic, and still learning), but he is a decent hitter and versatility gives them a guy to use in many situations.  It gets messier when Lewis or Martin force their way to the majors later this summer, but that will be a nice problem to have and to solve at the trade deadline.

Nick Gordon turned 27 in October, so the he's young logic IMO is completely wrong. I like Nick Gordon and it has taken time at each level to become really good so he should have a fine career as back up in the majors or a filler for bad teams. But he is the type of guy (along with Larnach and Celestino) that you don't build the future around, they are place holders until an actual young guy comes in and takes the job or a solid veteran extra guy that can fill in when needed. You don't block real prospects with these type of guys, so as now he is a fine fit, but if one or two of the actual young guys steps up he becomes very, very  expendable.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The ONLY reason Farmer would be more attractive than Gordon is because this roster has been mismanaged to the point of being ridiculously vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Gordon is a much better overall offensive player and he’s way more flexible defensively as well.

IMHO, Farmer was acquired as a whole-filler under the assumption that the club was going to lose Correa…but now…well, it’s tough to carry a specialist for left-handed pitching on a 25-man that consists of 13 pitchers. And it’s not like this guy is Nelson Cruz against lefties.

I would also lump Farmer as a defensive specialist. He can play good SS and 3B, while Gordon cannot.

agreed, this roster is in a pickle right now. Trades are needed, but Gordon isn’t the piece to trade this off-season. He was one of the better and more durable hitters last year. They’ll need that again, as RB pointed out.

[weitz41]

IDK why but Farmer and Gordon as our bench players just seems like a wise move. One of our bench players has to be able to hold down center for extended periods of time. Other then Celestino we really don't have anyone else. Celestino has options, is only 23 and needs to work on a few things in AAA. There needs to be at least 1 trade to clear up some redundancy I just don't think Gordon is one of them.  

[umterp23]

16 hours ago, Sean.h said:

No contending team would use Gordon as a starting OF.

As a versatile backup for many positions? now there is where Gordon can potentially fit. But since we have Farmer in the infield and Celestino in the OF, there is redundancy. we could trade both Gordon and Kepler. Depends on the return obviously...

Celestino just because he is a righty swinger shouldn't be considered a roster spot/lock at the big level.  He is a light hitting righty who plays marginal defense.  Gordon and Farmer are you utility guys and Gordon gets playing time in OF. 

[Muppet]

Gordon and Arraez are the two best hitters with runners in scoring position. Maybe we should trade them both for as good of pitchers as we can get. We'll need all the pitching in the world if we can't score any runs. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

Celestino just because he is a righty swinger shouldn't be considered a roster spot/lock at the big level.  He is a light hitting righty who plays marginal defense.  Gordon and Farmer are you utility guys and Gordon gets playing time in OF. 

Celestino is not MLB material right now.  Guy cant even throw to the correct base repeatedly.

[Trov]

I doubt there is much interest in Gordon on the trade market, for the same reasons people are attacking him in this post.  He does not have a track record, is not good against LH pitching, meaning he is platoon split guy, and will not likely be the kind of power hitter you want from that kind of a split.  That being said, I feel he still gives value, as he may not be the top defender at many positions, he could play them if needed, just not looking to start or play every day at them.  

[nicksaviking]

I'd keep Gordon over Kepler, but if the Twins were offered a solid pitching trade for Gordon, I'd do it without thinking twice.

His inability to draw walks has me pretty concerned. Those kinds of players seem to be extremely inconsistent. There's probably a significant chance that last year was the best we'll ever see from him.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, weitz41 said:

IDK why but Farmer and Gordon as our bench players just seems like a wise move. One of our bench players has to be able to hold down center for extended periods of time. Other then Celestino we really don't have anyone else. Celestino has options, is only 23 and needs to work on a few things in AAA. There needs to be at least 1 trade to clear up some redundancy I just don't think Gordon is one of them.  

He turns 24 in a month and if he still has things to work on in the minors, he isn't the answer to any question other than as a AAAA type of player.

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He turns 24 in a month and if he still has things to work on in the minors, he isn't the answer to any question other than as a AAAA type of player.

This take..... So many good to great players were working on things past age 24. Seriously.

As for Gordon, I don't know what to think. He was healthy and fairly productive last year. He is versatile, and not like Arraez who is equally mediocre or worse at every position. I think he's a nice utility guy, at least. But I'm not going to be upset if he's dealt, or on the roster. 

[tony&rodney]

Gordon has come through some difficult injuries and illnesses and his performance last season was a decent show of skill and improvement. Nick has a knack for getting better at baseball with each subsequent season at a level. 2023 will be Gordon's second full year at the MLB level and if he has worked diligently in the offseason to prepare, we may see Gordon display the talent projected when he was a high draft choice so long ago. When motivation meets talent and athleticism, things happen for the better.

[Twodogs]

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Giving every day playing time to players that are not producing every day playing time numbers is how your team ends up in the draft lottery. 

Not being able to find at-bats for a player who hit much better, making the minimum, under control for 5 more years because you are giving all of the at-bats to players who hit much worse, making a combined 19.5M, both with just one year left in a Twins uniform. That is how your team ends up in the draft lottery every year to follow. 

Unless of course... Gallo and Kepler start producing every day playing time numbers. 

Are we expecting them to do that?

Are we expecting Gallo and Kepler to perform so well that we are willing to kill younger players because you can't live without them in the lineup.  

 

Right now I believe on paper that Buxton, Kepler and Gallo are the Twins best outfielders.  I think you should expect your best players to play the best overall.  So in my opinion, I think the Twins need to play the best players the most, (as long as they are in contention).  Once they drop out of contention then they should trade everyone that doesn't fit into the future.  Kepler, Gallo, probably Polanco, and anyone else that they can get rid of so as to make room for the future, (young guys).  I mean if they are on the team and they are the best guys then they should play the most.  At least until the team is going nowhere.  It doesn't really matter if you're one of the best guys on a last place team.  Give them a chance, this is the squad the brain trust has put into play.  If it doesn't work out flush the toilet.

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Twodogs said:

Right now I believe on paper that Buxton, Kepler and Gallo are the Twins best outfielders.  I think you should expect your best players to play the best overall.  So in my opinion, I think the Twins need to play the best players the most, (as long as they are in contention).  Once they drop out of contention then they should trade everyone that doesn't fit into the future.  Kepler, Gallo, probably Polanco, and anyone else that they can get rid of so as to make room for the future, (young guys).  I mean if they are on the team and they are the best guys then they should play the most.  At least until the team is going nowhere.  It doesn't really matter if you're one of the best guys on a last place team.  Give them a chance, this is the squad the brain trust has put into play.  If it doesn't work out flush the toilet.

What happens if Kepler and Gallo are not the Twins best outfielders? 

Based on the 2022 numbers. Gordon was better than both of them and it wasn't close.