Why The Twins Are Betting On Chris Paddack (PREVIEW)

[Parker Hageman]

A pitcher with a blown elbow ain’t as bad as it used to be.

 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Less than eight months removed from his second career Tommy John surgery, The Twins signed Chris Paddack to a three-year extension. 

The why is simple: Locking Paddack into a three-year deal at a low cost could provide them with rotation depth when he recovers. While there is always a risk, $4 million per year would be a deal for a starter with his upside. 

Beyond the ability to save a few dollars, in his limited time with the Twins, Paddack showed real progress. 

When the Twins acquired him alongside reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers, the move bought bewilderment from the Twins faithful. After all, Minnesota’s bullpen had been an epic disaster in 2021, and in one transaction, they traded one of the few effective arms they had.

 

Not only was Rogers a good pitcher, but he was also a good guy. When the pandemic shuttered spring camps in 2020 and reduced media access to clubhouses, Rogers would meet reporters outside and speak on behalf of the players. Hard to fault people for this reaction. Rogers was a replacement All-Star in 2021 and the team’s union representative. He had performed well and carried himself even better. 

The two new Twins were question marks.

Paddack had long been an exciting prospect. Drafted by the Marlins and traded to the Padres for Fernando Rodney. He had dominating numbers in his age-20 season but required Tommy John for the first time. He recovered, commenced dominating again, and ended up in San Diego in 2019. 

Paddack’s rookie season showed much promise. He finished with 140.2 innings over 26 starts. He struck out 27% of batters faced, held opponents to a .204 average, and posted an excellent 126 ERA+. 

The 2020 season was weird for everybody. Considering the conditions, it’s not a stretch to think it was mentally exhausted by, you know, everything. Expecting players to perform at their best in team isolation is problematic. For Paddack, his fastball moved slightly differently, like a two-seam fastball. On average, he got two more inches of run out of it. 

They would be thrilled if you told most pitchers they had gained two inches of horizontal movement on a pitch. Paddack, however, struggled to command it. He couldn’t elevate it like he had the previous season and missed the zone more often. And he was walloped when left middle-down. He surrendered ten home runs, a .308 average, and got 9.5% swinging strikes versus 12% the year before. 

Maybe it was a sophomore slump or just the effects of a weird, shortened season. Perhaps in the next regular season, Paddack would be ready to continue where his rookie season left off. 

Paddack worked diligently heading into 2021 to command his new moving fastball, locating it more in the zone. While he showed improvement there, hitters also continued to thwack whatever didn’t elevate (.314 batting average against), and the overall season was ugly, punctuated with a 5.07 ERA (77 ERA+). He quickly became a buy-low type of candidate, with the hyper-competitive Padres ready to upgrade their rotation. 

That’s where the Twins come in. It looks like the Twins concentrated their efforts on a few specific areas: pitch selection, pitch location, and Paddack’s core mechanics. The results was more consistency, and more swing-and-miss. We can see that in a deeper dive, but that deeper dive is reserved for Twins Daily Caretakers’ eyes only. 

Fear not: You too can become a Caretaker for as low as $4/month. In addition to getting to read the rest of the Paddack story, you can also meaty stories, plus get perks like, Winter Meltdown tickets, and other special recognition. You can read all about it and signup here. 

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[Blyleven2011]

It's 50 /50 it works out ....

Low risk and reminds me of the pineda signing alittle bit ...

The twins way , build a team with hope and hope it works out ...

The fans are the ones that only should have hope and not the front office  ...

[JD-TWINS]

18 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It's 50 /50 it works out ....

Low risk and reminds me of the pineda signing alittle bit ...

The twins way , build a team with hope and hope it works out ...

The fans are the ones that only should have hope and not the front office  ...

Agreed, not a terrible move but not something to get too excited about…….If he flies for a 5th starter in ‘24 we win!

Paddack & Ryan can be the “experienced” part of the Staff in ‘24 when SWR & Varland are going every 5th day.

[dberthia]

We got fleeced in this trade. The best thing I can say about this new contract is that it's relatively affordable and has some upside in the unlikely event he's ever able to contribute in a meaningful way.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, dberthia said:

We got fleeced in this trade.

Hard to get fleeced when you don't give up much. Taylor Rogers was bad last season.

[Whitey333]

Interesting article.  At least the massive amount of money they gave Correa makes some sense.  Paddock at 4 mil per for someone that has had two Tommy John surgeries could prove to be a big wast of money.  Just like giving 11 million to a .199 career hitter in Gallo.  That could also prove to be a big waste of money.  But I realize they could both prove to be beneficial.  Although not Paddock as he won't be pitching much if any this year.  But that's what the Twins live off if is hope.  They sell only hope to fans. Remember our own front office said that the process is more important than the results.  

But I enjoyed the article.  Too bad it turned out to be an informercial for the Caretaker plan on TD

[Doctor Gast]

Nash Walker voiced my thoughts. Why would the FO want to extend Paddack? and why would Paddack want to delay FA? Because  '23 is a wash, he's still recovering from the surgery and trying to figure out where his arm is at. '24 will be up & down trying to get his control back & just trying to adjust to the effect the surgery. 

But in '25 that extra year, Paddack has a better chance to prove in what he can do. Paddack & the FO are betting that he'll shine. In that case it's a win/win, Paddack goes into FA with a good season & FO can qualify trading a proven RP pitcher for 3 wasted years of Paddack & Pagan (my thoughts)

[Nashvilletwin]

Could be viewed as a “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” flier for the ‘24 rotation and a hedge on resigning one of Mahle, Gray and Maeda. So all good. 

The goal is to gather enough of these to at least find one or two reliable starters in ‘24 to go along with Ryan and Ober.  Options now include: resigning one or two of Gray, Mahle and Maeda, Winder, SWR, Varland, Balazovic, and Paddack. Whom am I missing?

We really could use one more reliable, innings eating, controllable arm by the trade deadline. 

 

[sun]

I hope that he can get back his velocity. It seemed to take Syndergaard a long time to recover from TJ surgery and he's still not really a starter. Between Maeda & Paddack, one of them should work out, or maybe a new star in the pipeline will compensate. Twins fans know how to root for underdogs better than the rest.

[August J Gloop]

Showing confidence in their ability to help him rebuild, and have the head start on an extension if they like the results.  It's an easy choice. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, sun said:

I hope that he can get back his velocity 

Me too, but from what I've gathered by glancing at a few pitchers coming off of a second Tommy John, pitchers can be expected to lose one and a half to three miles per hour off their heaters. Paddack was at 93.0 mph in 2022 according to his Baseball Savant page, so what we can hope for later in 2023 is about 91.0mph. I saw a small increase in whiff rate on that page, but I don't know if that accounts for small sample size or platoon splits evening out. Depends on what kind of data you like to look at, how deep you want to go, and how deep your pockets are...

Here is that sign-up again:  Become a Twins Daily Caretaker  

Me personally, this feels more like Dobnak than Pineda (yay?), but I reserve the right to be wrong, and maybe Parker has other ideas in his article. 

By the way, the good news is that surgeons are getting better and better and pitchers are more likely to recover from this second surgery than in the past. (Walker Buehler is having his second Tommy John too). I'm confident Paddack will come back and like others have said, he's going to need to learn the art of pitching more than relying on raw ability. That could be a good thing. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Parker Hageman]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Here is that sign-up again:  Become a Twins Daily Caretaker  

 

 

[cHawk]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Paddock at 4 mil per for someone that has had two Tommy John surgeries could prove to be a big wast of money.

Even if Paddack is godawful, $4M/year is a not a "big waste of money." It's similar to Dobnak's $2M/year deal in many ways.

[cHawk]

7 hours ago, dberthia said:

We got fleeced in this trade.

Rogers had an ERA+ of 81 between stints with two different teams last year. He was less than third-rate and the Twins' bullpen wouldn't have been any better with him in it.

[jkcarew]

He pitched 20 innings last year. There is ZERO to take away from 20 innings.

$4M probably worth the pretty small chance he can be both above average AND healthy.

[Parker Hageman]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

He pitched 20 innings last year. There is ZERO to take away from 20 innings.

You’re wrong but that’s ok.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I liked what we saw from him in limited action last season and I like this as a low-risk gamble on his future.  It is similar to Dobnak in that the cost is low so if it fails, not much lost.