Why The Twins Are Betting On Chris Paddack (CARETAKER ONLY)

[Parker Hageman]

A pitcher with a blown elbow ain’t as bad as it used to be.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Less than eight months removed from his second career Tommy John surgery, The Twins signed Chris Paddack to a three-year extension. 

The why is simple: Locking Paddack into a three-year deal at a low cost could provide them with rotation depth when he recovers. While there is always a risk, $4 million per year would be a deal for a starter with his upside. 

Beyond the ability to save a few dollars, in his limited time with the Twins, Paddack showed real progress. 

When the Twins acquired him alongside reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers, the move bought bewilderment from the Twins faithful. After all, Minnesota’s bullpen had been an epic disaster in 2021, and in one transaction, they traded one of the few effective arms they had.

Not only was Rogers a good pitcher, but he was also a good guy. When the pandemic shuttered spring camps in 2020 and reduced media access to clubhouses, Rogers would meet reporters outside and speak on behalf of the players. Hard to fault people for this reaction. Rogers was a replacement All-Star in 2021 and the team’s union representative. He had performed well and carried himself even better. 

The two new Twins were question marks.

Paddack had long been an exciting prospect. Drafted by the Marlins and traded to the Padres for Fernando Rodney . He had dominating numbers in his age-20 season but required Tommy John for the first time. He recovered, commenced dominating again, and ended up in San Diego in 2019. 

Paddack’s rookie season showed much promise. He finished with 140.2 innings over 26 starts. He struck out 27% of batters faced, held opponents to a .204 average, and posted an excellent 126 ERA+. 

The 2020 season was weird for everybody. Considering the conditions, it’s not a stretch to think it was mentally exhausted by, you know, everything. Expecting players to perform at their best in team isolation is problematic. For Paddack, his fastball moved slightly differently, like a two-seam fastball. On average, he got two more inches of run out of it. 

They would be thrilled if you told most pitchers they had gained two inches of horizontal movement on a pitch. Paddack, however, struggled to command it. He couldn’t elevate it like he had the previous season and missed the zone more often. And he was walloped when left middle-down. He surrendered ten home runs, a .308 average, and got 9.5% swinging strikes versus 12% the year before. 

Maybe it was a sophomore slump or just the effects of a weird, shortened season. Perhaps in the next regular season, Paddack would be ready to continue where his rookie season left off. 

Paddack worked diligently heading into 2021 to command his new moving fastball, locating it more in the zone. While he showed improvement there, hitters also continued to thwack whatever didn’t elevate (.314 batting average against), and the overall season was ugly, punctuated with a 5.07 ERA (77 ERA+). He quickly became a buy-low type of candidate, with the hyper-competitive Padres ready to upgrade their rotation. 

That’s where the Twins come in.

From the Twins’ perspective, there was still a lot to like about Paddack despite his numbers. He had a fastball that regularly touched 97 mph. He had an elite changeup. While he had a 5.07 ERA, he had a solid 3.87 xFIP, suggesting that there was noise, suggesting he pitched a lot better than those results indicated. As I discussed in the recent post on Jorge Lopez, the Twins are tinkerers. 

My initial reaction to Paddack’s acquisition was that the Twins were going to look to do two things:

1. Help him be able to locate his fastball in the upper third of the zone or high and 

2. Reduce his overall usage of his fastball. 

As it turns out, the Twins did just that. Paddack’s numbers look very different from his last season in a Padres uniform through his five starts. 

	% of FBs Upper Third	Fastball Usage
2020	40.9%	58.2%
2021	47.6%	61.5%
2022	60.0%	51.8%

Paddack began to consistently throw the fastball in the upper third.  

One of the reasons behind this consistency is that he had a much more consistent release point with his fastball throughout his five starts. 

And it’s not just the point of release of the ball – it starts with his movements. Paddack and the Twins made strides in tightening his mechanics – from the initial move to his arm path and the release. 

One thing that stands out about his mechanics this past season was how he moved from his center more. (No, it’s not a Bull Durham-type thing where he unjammed his eyelids.) Pitchers who move from their core tend to be more stable throughout their mechanics, and with stability comes repeatability (which is why you see his release point as a tight ball in 2022 versus a scatter chart the past two years). 

Why is the upper third so important? It’s where the swing and misses are. Dating back to 2016, fastballs thrown in the lower third had a swinging strike rate of 4.9% with a 47% in-play rate. However, fastballs at the top area of the strike zone had a swinging strike rate of 12.9% and an in-play rate of 28.1%. 

Paddack’s career with the Padres mirrored this success – he had a 15.1% swinging strike rate at the top of the zone and a 3.7% one at the bottom of the zone. Logically, get him to elevate, and he should succeed with the pitch. 

Paddack’s zone rate with his fastball jumped to 66%, and he had an overall career-high 12.1% swinging strikes rate in 2022.

So while his fastball and changeup remain elite offerings, Paddack has yet to find that elusive and essential third pitch. For most of his career, he has used what has been labeled a “serviceable” curveball. Paddack tried adding velocity to this pitch to help pull it closer to his fastball. The big loop was assisting hitters in eliminating it from his arsenal. 

Again, enter the Twins.

One of the prominent aspects of the Twins’ pitching philosophies is that pitchers should have sliders or cutters – breaking pitches that move late. Unlike curveballs, they don’t deviate from the tunnel as early. The Twins prefer pitchers to throw the sweeper variety slider. 

Chris Paddack began throwing a slider at his third start of the 2022 season. It was something that many people figured would happen.

“He doesn’t give up many hits,” former teammate Craig Stammen said during Paddack’s rookie season. “It’s crazy. And he’s doing it with basically two pitches. I keep thinking he’s going to find a slider — two, three, four years down the road — and he’s going to be really nasty.”

We’re now three years later, and Paddack attempted to fulfill that prophecy.

Paddack had tried to throw a cut fastball but reverted to his fastball-change-curve mix. As Stammen mentioned, the slider would be a decent option to supplant his curveball. In theory, he starts throwing the slider, and he’ll be nasty, right? In practice, however, it was…not great.

In his third and fourth starts of the year, he threw 14 sliders to Tigers and Orioles hitters. They were, well, see for yourself.

 

 

Paddack had five strikes (35% strike rate), two balls in play (both outs!), and one swinging strike. Paddack did not use it during his final outing against the Dodgers. It may have been a lack of confidence in the pitch or simply because of the game plan. 

Nevertheless, the Twins have been very good at maximizing their pitcher’s slider. With much time to recover and then focus on pitching, there should be ample time to polish it up. 

So why did the Twins extend Paddack? The relationship with Scott Boras also played a factor, and the potential to save future money on a rotation piece did too. But don’t overlook that Paddack also had taken substantial strides forward. He locked in on his fastball and has the makings of a third pitch. 

Like his former teammate suggested, we will be four years down the road when Paddack returns. The hope for the Twins is that he is really nasty.

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[AlwaysinModeration]

Great analysis Parker.  Looking forward to seeing him back on the mound later this year, and seeing a better slider.

As for the extension, to me the conversation had to be like this:  we traded a lot to get you for two years, and now we are only getting part of one.  Let us get at least some of that lost time back by tacking on a year of free agency at a fair price - then you can go after your big paycheck.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Really good article backed up with detailed and understandable graphics. Thank you. 

[Squirrel]

I liked the trade for Paddack and I would do it again. My only problem with it (which has nothing to do with this article) is that they didn't effectively stock the BP. But back to Paddack, I'm excited to see what he brings when he's all recovered.

[Parker Hageman]

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

As for the extension, to me the conversation had to be like this:  we traded a lot to get you for two years, and now we are only getting part of one.  Let us get at least some of that lost time back by tacking on a year of free agency at a fair price - then you can go after your big paycheck.

I think that's about right. It gives Paddack some security too in case he doesn't rebound. Feels like a win-win for both sides.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 1/17/2023 at 9:15 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Really good article backed up with detailed and understandable graphics. Thank you. 

That's why we pay Parker the big bucks.

But seriously, so happy to see Parker writing about the Twins again. His stuff is always next-level.