Offseason Status Update: Enter Carlos Correa

[Nick Nelson]

With the slow holiday season behind us, Hot Stove action has kicked back into high gear. The past week brought Twins fans a Carlos Correa reunion, a Chris Paddack contract extension, and reignited trade rumors.

Here we'll get you caught up on all the latest.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

When last we checked in with a status update, mum was the word. Despite some hiccups, Carlos Correa appeared destined to sign with the Mets, and it was unclear how the Twins could still find a way to make a splash.

Ten days later, the narrative has been flipped upside down. They found a way.

Twins Sign Correa to Franchise-Record Free Agent Deal

As negotiations with New York continued to stall, Scott Boras turned his attention back to Minnesota, and the Twins were able to offer a deal that got it done, locking up Correa throughout his prime.

The particulars of the contract are quite favorable to the Twins, protecting against the perceived breakdown risks that scrapped his agreements with San Francisco and New York. Correa gets six years and $200 million guaranteed – shattering Josh Donaldson's precedent ($92M) for largest free-agent commitment in Twins history – with a series of team options that can vest via playing time. The deal could max out at 10 years and $270 million.

Interestingly, Correa's salaries decrease dramatically in the latter years, which almost seems to reflect a shared understanding that he'll likely cease to be a major factor in his late 30s. It's a high-risk move on its face. 

Following the signing, I shared some thoughts about the implications of Correa's ankle issue and more recently, Lucas Seehafer wrote a great piece on the underlying divide within the orthopedic community that Boras lamented during his client's introductory presser. I highly recommend it for insight on the situation.

The bottom line is that any such concerns are hopefully a long way from coming into play. Correa was very healthy last year and there's little reason to expect anything else in 2023. His addition to a roster that was looking needy in his absence and solidifies the Twins as verified contenders in the AL Central, now and going forward.

Twins and Paddack Agree to 3-Year Contract

With an eye on the "going forward" view, Minnesota struck a contract extension with right-hander Chris Paddack – another Boras client – to lock him up through 2025 (a move that was first reported here at Twins Daily!).

It's a fairly minor move with some significant upside. The Twins were already set to pay Paddack around $2.5 million this year as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, so now they're buying into a little upside on the other end if things go well. 

The righty will again be inexpensive in 2024 ($2.5M), when he should be back to full strength, and the Twins are also buying out his first year of free agency at a mere $7.5M. Even if Paddack can't return to form after a second elbow reconstruction, the team risk here is nominal.

Club and Arraez Unable to Agree on Arbitration Terms

Prior to last Friday's deadline, the Twins agreed to terms with Paddack and all of their other arbitration-eligible players, finalizing their 2023 salary figures. That is, all except for Luis Arraez. 

The two sides are said to be divided by more than a million dollars, with Arraez filing at $6.1 million and the Twins countering at $5 million. By the standard of arbitration exchanges, that is a sizable chasm.

I think this situation speaks to a bigger issue in play with Arraez, which has rippling effects. There is SO MUCH room for disagreement in his valuation. I saw it in the comments when recently ranking him as the organization's 10th-most valuable player asset. I see it in everyday conversations with fans. And we may be seeing it play out in protracted trade talks with the Marlins, which have been the subject of rumors dating back many weeks.

On the one hand, Arraez is a clear star property. He's beloved by the fanbase, still only 25 and coming off a breakthrough year that brought an All-Star nod, batting title, and Silver Slugger award. On the other hand, he's already slid to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, with balky knees and a 3-WAR ceiling (i.e. good, not great).

The differing opinions on Arraez factor into more than a looming case before the arbitration panel.

Twins and Marlins Said to Be Continuing Trade Discussions

It's no secret that Miami, loaded in the rotation after signing Johnny Cueto, is open for business on their starting pitchers, with Pablo Lopez topping the list of available names. It's also no secret the Twins could use one more surefire option in their starting mix.

So it comes as no surprise the Marlins, still seeking some added offensive punch, have been in contact with the Twins ... which also hasn't been much of a secret. The two sides were linked here by Ted Schwerzler back in December and more recently by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman mentions Max Kepler and Arraez as names that have come up, but adds the Twins aren't interested in moving Arraez. (Aren't they, though?)

Lopez is moderately interesting. He's a good-not-great arm befitting the middle of the rotation, which I suppose would make him a fair swap for Arraez. Except it sounds like if any deal were to materialize, it'd be much more complex than a 1-to-1 exchange.

As JD Cameron notes, there are other potential trade partners still out there offering higher-upside opportunities, though the cost to acquire such coveted talent will be exorbitant.

Roster & Payroll Projection v. 6

The arbitration agreements reached last week give us more clarity on the payroll for 2023. We're now only guessing on Arraez, and for the time being I'm going with the team-submitted figure out $5 million as that seems more likely. 

With Correa on board at $36 million for this year ($32M salary and half of an $8M signing bonus), the Twins have suddenly shot up near $150 million in total payroll. I'm keeping Kyle Garlick in as the fourth outfielder for now, but he was DFA'ed to make room for Correa on the 40-man, and could be lost on waivers. 

Either way, that looks like the clearest spot the Twins need to address before Opening Day: a righty-swinging outfielder. The team is said to be "tire-kicking" on Adam Duvall (per Darren Wolfson) as he remains one of the few intriguing free agent options suited for the role.

 

 

 

 

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[tony&rodney]

Good roundup on the roster and another reminder that the Twins could benefit from a trade with the Marlins. Last season was a horror show of untimely injuries and ill fortune with health. If a report that Kirilloff is pain free for the first time in two years is correct that is a strong start to some fortune and good luck. I like how deep the Twins are at the moment with position players but there are not enough plate appearances to distribute amongst their players. A trade with Miami is possible and my hope is that either of Cabrera or Luzardo comes north. I would see Arraez and Larnach as a reasonable return for either player. 

[PDX Twin]

Quote

With an eye on the "going forward" view, Minnesota struck a contract extension with right-hander Chris Paddack – another Boras client 

I wonder if Boras has secretly taken an ownership interest in the Twins. He suddenly seems to be great pals with the Twins' FO.

[stringer bell]

What would the projection be on a Duvall contract? Certainly, the Twins would be well over $150 and closer to $160 and I presume he might be looking for multiple years. 

[rv78]

Duvall would be a good replacement for Kepler since he is a righty clone of Kepler. Can barely hit above .200 and strikes out plenty. The hole would remain in the lineup, perfect!

[DJL44]

Thanks for the Correa article. I haven't heard much about him this offseason.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Good roundup on the roster and another reminder that the Twins could benefit from a trade with the Marlins. Last season was a horror show of untimely injuries and ill fortune with health. If a report that Kirilloff is pain free for the first time in two years is correct that is a strong start to some fortune and good luck. I like how deep the Twins are at the moment with position players but there are not enough plate appearances to distribute amongst their players. A trade with Miami is possible and my hope is that either of Cabrera or Luzardo comes north. I would see Arraez and Larnach as a reasonable return for either player. 

Luzardo from Miami 🤞🤞 for inexpensive control guys back to Miami:

Luzardo to Twins

Marlins get IF from farm system (not Lee nor Lewis)……….Celestino………Pagan or López. If we need to be more aggressive, Martin from farm instead of IF piece. Maybe Walner?

Kepler for sure & Polanco (reluctantly) are in play for starting pitching. We have instant depth at 3rd & 2nd with the CC signing.

Arraez - Larnach - Lee - Lewis - Miranda - Kirilof - Buxton - Correa - Vazquez - Duran - Gordon……….to me, these guys are the Core moving forward & shouldn’t be in trade talks prior to ‘23 results. Realistically, anyone else is fair to consider.

[EGFTShaw]

AGAIN, I would not trade for a pitcher that is not a significant upgrade to Sonny Gray.

The article itself is very good.

I just don't understand this lack of confidence, or maybe it is simply years of having sub-par pitching, that so many people want to trade for anyone who is not going to be a significant upgrade.

With not lockout, they HAVE to have an understanding where Maeda and Mahle stand in being ready for pitching in the spring.  If not, they are not doing their job.  Same is true to lesser degree with Gray and Ober.

In addition, doubling down on Pagan as they did, they damn well better be in the loop on how he is progressing in eliminating the mistakes of 2022.  To a lesser degree the same is true of Lopez.

The FO is not dumb.  You do not get to the point they are on any MLB team without knowing what you are doing to some degree.  

[Fred]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

AGAIN, I would not trade for a pitcher that is not a significant upgrade to Sonny Gray.

The article itself is very good.

I just don't understand this lack of confidence, or maybe it is simply years of having sub-par pitching, that so many people want to trade for anyone who is not going to be a significant upgrade.

With not lockout, they HAVE to have an understanding where Maeda and Mahle stand in being ready for pitching in the spring.  If not, they are not doing their job.  Same is true to lesser degree with Gray and Ober.

In addition, doubling down on Pagan as they did, they damn well better be in the loop on how he is progressing in eliminating the mistakes of 2022.  To a lesser degree the same is true of Lopez.

The FO is not dumb.  You do not get to the point they are on any MLB team without knowing what you are doing to some degree.  

>$3.5 million to Pagan makes me think they may be relying on analytics too heavily. Of course, they could (I hope) look like baseball geniuses. Bring on the season!

[Brandon]

On 1/16/2023 at 4:44 PM, PDX Twin said:

I wonder if Boras has secretly taken an ownership interest in the Twins. He suddenly seems to be great pals with the Twins' FO.

Boras has lots of clients on the Twins.  Jeffers, Killeroff and there are other prospects who use him as well.