Correa's Deal was Six Years in the Making

[Lou Hennessy]

The Carlos Correa signing was a long time coming. 

No, not just in terms of a lengthy off-season where he agreed to terms with two other teams. But rather, the entire tenure of this front office has led to this move.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to say that Carlos Correa fell onto the Twins’ laps, not once, but twice. But it’s worth examining the many roster developments that led to the club being able to have an opening on their lap to begin with. From dealing with a revolving door of stopgap shortstops, to injuries that dimmed the long-term outlook of the position and the creation of financial flexibility through trades and early extensions -- that long road led to this franchise-altering move.

It’s the butterfly effect. If things had gone differently to the slightest degree, who knows if Correa and his family wind up in the Twin Cities on Wednesday, where the star shortstop signed a mega deal that will keep him in the fold for at least six more years. 

Each of the six seasons that led to Correa’s newly-signed contract followed a similar pattern with minor variations throughout. Finally, the front office’s efforts to create that financial flexibility aligned with the club’s needs and the availability of a star player. 

Let’s take a look at all the action (or inaction) that led to the Twins landing another franchise cornerstone. 

2017
While Derek Falvey and Thad Levine officially took over as the heads of the Twins’ baseball operations department in the fall of 2016, this season was almost like a barometer for them. Instead of starting their tenures with a bang in free agency or via trade, they decided to mostly stand pat with minor or mostly-inconsequential moves.

They also remained relatively quiet at the trade deadline. Maybe that’s due to a lack of confidence that an over-achieving team could make a serious run in the postseason, or maybe they genuinely didn’t like any of the offers they were getting for players like Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton , etc.

The team miraculously made the playoffs but was taken down by the mighty New York Yankees yet again in a one-game play-in wild card game. While discouraged by how the season ended, spirits remained high and fans clamored for free agent reinforcements heading into the off-season. 

2018
Again, the Twins’ front office decided to wait out the free agent market, signing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to cheaper, low-commitment deals. Then, in spring training, Jorge Polanco tested positive for a banned substance and was suspended for the first half of the season. It’s a big blow to the team, as Polanco’s numbers in the second half of 2017 throttled the team to contention (.870 OPS, 130 wRC+).

Falvey and Levine decided to hold back. They didn’t overreact by acquiring a long-term replacement, despite the fan outcry. Instead, the team rolled with a combination of Ehire Adrianza and Gregorio Petit (remember him?) until Polanco could return in July. Sadly, the team took a major step back from a record standpoint.

Falvey and Levine finally got to see some action at the trade deadline, but not in the way many Twins’ fans would have hoped for. They traded away popular players such as Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in an effort to acquire current-day contributors such as Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino . 

2019
Once again, the Twins waited out the free agent market, establishing a pattern that they follow to this day. Instead, they focused their attention on locking up their young talent to team-friendly extensions. This included Polanco, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano , who each landed multi-year deals that included team options at the end of the contracts.

When the calendar flipped to 2019, they signed veteran power hitter Nelson Cruz to a modest one-year contract with a club option for the 2020 season. Besides that, they once again mostly took a back seat in free agency.

Polanco provided excellent value at shortstop and even made his first All Star game appearance as the starter for the American League. However, he started leaking oil from a defensive standpoint in the second half of the season. Perhaps it was due to lingering injuries in his surgically-repaired ankle, but this was when it started to become clear that he probably was not going to be a long-term option at shortstop. 

2020
This off-season was defined by one move that they made, and a few notable ones that they held off on. Sure, their noted interest in Zach Wheeler fell short when he signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The club would certainly have had to pay far more to get him in a Twins uniform, but still, that contract looks rather enticing at the moment.

Falvey and Levine also chose to hold back on a pursuit of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, who were popular names on Twins’ Twitter due to their availability as well as the club’s need for established arms. That decision to focus elsewhere proved to be wise, as Keuchel hit a wall in the second year of his eventual contract, and Kimbrel has been inconsistent.

The Twins chose to instead wait and sign third baseman Josh Donaldson when his market didn’t develop as well as he hoped. The team went on to win the division but were once again swept from postseason play. The dagger ends up being a defensive error by Polanco at short, leading the team to fully transition him out of the shortstop position. 

2021
The club made it clear that a new starting shortstop is the first item on their off-season shopping list. At one point, it looked like a three-horse race between free agents Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Semien and Didi Gregorius . They chose a one-year deal for Simmons, as not to block the heir apparent, Royce Lewis . Their top prospect, however, tore his ACL and had to sit out for the whole 2021 season, dimming the long-term outlook at the position. Simmons had a terrible season, and his tenure as a Twin is over after one year, just as planned. 

2022
The Twins shipped Donaldson to the Yankees in an effort to unload a now-undesirable contract. Meanwhile, Correa remained unsigned coming out of the MLB lockout and the Twins still had an opening at short. In a move that took everyone by surprise, the Twins landed him on essentially a one-year deal with protections in case he gets injured. Once again, they waited out the market and this time the Twins got their biggest prize yet.

Later on, Lewis re-tears his ACL in May, and Austin Martin starts getting more time at other positions due to doubts he can handle the shortstop position. The long-term outlook of the position is once again doubtful.

At the culmination of the 2022 campaign, Correa opted out of his contract as expected. The Twins are left with a hole at shortstop, but now they have something they’ve worked to create for the better part of six years – financial flexibility. They are not bogged down by the contracts of yesteryear, and their team consists of young talent and older veterans that signed early extensions.

Yet again, they wait out the market instead of springing for high-end players such as Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts . When Correa’s deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets fell through, that flexibility and patience led them to this tenure-defining transaction. 

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[PopRiveter]

It was nice to read this condensed history, but a few things jump out at me. This FO pushed a load of chips in on the pursuit of Shohei Ohtani in the off-season before the 2018 season and didn’t land him. If they’d been successful, the subsequent planning would have been built around him (and his contract) as a centerpiece.

They have made a number of fruitless FA pursuits and some  in-house candidates failed to qualify for potential big contracts (looking at you Sano.)

Eventually, you have to spend money on some star player and to get a CC quality player with this level of financial risk is a huge win from my perspective.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Lou for a synopsis of the Flavine reign. Boras seeking them out to make the original deal, got things rolling.  I agree that Flavine's focus on getting Correa back was a factor in '23 but the odds of Correa returning was very very low. The fact that Correa actually came back wasn't due to Flavine's maneuvering but was that he was suppose to be here.

[Heiny]

I enjoyed the read also, but it almost reads like a grand 6-year plan to sign CC.  I actually favor the "He fell into our laps - twice", scenario.  Certainly not complaining, and I give kudos to the FO for getting the deal done.  I know Falvey likes to use the term creative,  and I believe he is.  I'm not sure how much his restrictions affect his performance, but I am beginning to like the results.  I absolutely loved the Donaldson signing at the time, and even loved it more when they traded him away.  Some of the dumpster diving gets old, but usually at a low cost.  And when one of those dumpster plucks pans out in a big way,  we are going to love it.  So I guess I'm just gonna let the FO do their job,  and I"ll just sit back and laud their decisions,  or complain about them.  What a great fan I am, eh?

[MarcF]

What I find very troubling about the CC signing is that no matter what he says, he didn't want to stay here. He preferred the Giants and the Mets, and it isn't all about the $. He wanted to play, as do all players, with a winning team. He now has his $, albeit only for 6 years (poor guy), but while he's smiling all the way to the bank, the team that he is an integral piece of really isn't championship caliber. Not even close. Thank goodness for the AL Central. 

[MarcF]

40 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I enjoyed the read also, but it almost reads like a grand 6-year plan to sign CC.  I actually favor the "He fell into our laps - twice", scenario.  Certainly not complaining, and I give kudos to the FO for getting the deal done.  I know Falvey likes to use the term creative,  and I believe he is.  I'm not sure how much his restrictions affect his performance, but I am beginning to like the results.  I absolutely loved the Donaldson signing at the time, and even loved it more when they traded him away.  Some of the dumpster diving gets old, but usually at a low cost.  And when one of those dumpster plucks pans out in a big way,  we are going to love it.  So I guess I'm just gonna let the FO do their job,  and I"ll just sit back and laud their decisions,  or complain about them.  What a great fan I am, eh?

Kudos for getting the deal done? He had nowhere else to go to get his exorbitant pay.

[old nurse]

The wonderment of people’s perspective

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Waiting out the market, all three or four times, also caused them to miss out on the tier two free agents that would have marginally improved the team without giving up prospects. In 22 they missed out on players like Jose Abreu who would have been a significant improvement to the lineup, and would have not cost a budget shifting amount where they couldn’t afford Correa’s 33M.

6 years in the making to not significantly improve the team and by shear luck not taking a huge step backwards.

The FO does deserve credit for freeing up the cash to sign Correa and actually getting the deal done. They also deserve the blame for having a huge budget surplus and not consuming it in ways that significantly improve the team. There’s trades still potentially out there, but prospects are the capital that improve the major league roster, and that cash is pretty low right now considering how much budget surplus there was coming into this offseason.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

24 minutes ago, MarcF said:

Kudos for getting the deal done? He had nowhere else to go to get his exorbitant pay.

Mets had a total contract higher than the one he signed, just less guaranteed.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, MarcF said:

What I find very troubling about the CC signing is that no matter what he says, he didn't want to stay here.

I don't think this is the case. If he truly didn't want to stay here he would not have signed a long-term contract.

[Unwinder]

3 hours ago, MarcF said:

What I find very troubling about the CC signing is that no matter what he says, he didn't want to stay here.

He can want to be here while also preferring to go somewhere else for more money. I've been happy at jobs I've had despite them not being my dream job, and despite being willing to drop them for something that pays more.

[jmlease1]

23 hours ago, MarcF said:

What I find very troubling about the CC signing is that no matter what he says, he didn't want to stay here. He preferred the Giants and the Mets, and it isn't all about the $. He wanted to play, as do all players, with a winning team. He now has his $, albeit only for 6 years (poor guy), but while he's smiling all the way to the bank, the team that he is an integral piece of really isn't championship caliber. Not even close. Thank goodness for the AL Central. 

It was about the money and it was about the years. Correa didn't want to do the free agent dance again (most players do not enjoy the process, which is understandable), so the length of the deal mattered. The money certainly mattered, and we weren't talking about $5-10M (which is still significant) but $65M with the Giants deal and then $30M for the original Mets deal.

Yes, he wants to play in a competitive situation (which in fact he has with the Twins; healthy, this is a playoff team and was last season as well) but he was trying to make this his last contract as well, which meant getting long years and maximizing the dollars.

Correa was perfectly happy to come back here, but wasn't going to take a discount. It's fairly clear that he had preferences on which teams he wanted to go to, and the Twins were on that list. You can't make this a binary where if didn't immediately go with the Twins it means he doesn't want to be here, it's just not that simple. Being happy to go somewhere else (for much bigger money and more years) doesn't mean he wasn't happy to come back here, he can have multiple places he'd be happy to land.