'23 International Draft

[Doctor Gast]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-prospects-signing-day-2023

"23 International Draft is nearly upon us, it's this Sunday, Jan.15. I always look forward to this time because it's a time to find great talent.

I really don't know who we got a shot to sign. The draft is supposed to have a bunch of good catchers, hopefully we can hook one of the best ones.

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-prospects-signing-day-2023

"23 International Draft is nearly upon us, it's this Sunday, Jan.15. I always look forward to this time because it's a time to find great talent.

I really don't know who we got a shot to sign. The draft is supposed to have a bunch of good catchers, hopefully we can hook one of the best ones.

If you go to https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/international/ you can see who is likely to sign with the Twins.

Ariel Castro at number 11 Looks like the best of the bunch.  Could be another Mercedes type pick.  At 31 the Twins look to pick up one of the top catchers.  Guy is only 5'9" with average tools but looks to have the arm to stick.  At38 Hendry Chivili is there typical Shortstop pick that doesn't work out.  He is a projection pick with average tools across the board right now.

At 16 there is so much extra projection risk it is no wonder most of these guys flame out but the Twins balanced out their top picks pretty well this year.  Here's hoping all three work out along with some lottery ticket types they pick up.  Maybe another Arraez in there somewhere.

[Doctor Gast]

29 minutes ago, Dman said:

If you go to https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/international/ you can see who is likely to sign with the Twins.

Ariel Castro at number 11 Looks like the best of the bunch.  Could be another Mercedes type pick.  At 31 the Twins look to pick up one of the top catchers.  Guy is only 5'9" with average tools but looks to have the arm to stick.  At38 Hendry Chivili is there typical Shortstop pick that doesn't work out.  He is a projection pick with average tools across the board right now.

At 16 there is so much extra projection risk it is no wonder most of these guys flame out but the Twins balanced out their top picks pretty well this year.  Here's hoping all three work out along with some lottery ticket types they pick up.  Maybe another Arraez in there somewhere.

Thanks, I was hoping for this info

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, Dman said:

If you go to https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/international/ you can see who is likely to sign with the Twins.

Ariel Castro at number 11 Looks like the best of the bunch.  Could be another Mercedes type pick.  At 31 the Twins look to pick up one of the top catchers.  Guy is only 5'9" with average tools but looks to have the arm to stick.  At38 Hendry Chivili is there typical Shortstop pick that doesn't work out.  He is a projection pick with average tools across the board right now.

At 16 there is so much extra projection risk it is no wonder most of these guys flame out but the Twins balanced out their top picks pretty well this year.  Here's hoping all three work out along with some lottery ticket types they pick up.  Maybe another Arraez in there somewhere.

Fangraphs has Chivilli much higher than MLB.com. Top 10 Latin America player. Like you said it's real challenging to rate these young guys, but they make Chivilli sound pretty exciting.

[Doctor Gast]

51 minutes ago, Dman said:

If you go to https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/international/ you can see who is likely to sign with the Twins.

Ariel Castro at number 11 Looks like the best of the bunch.  Could be another Mercedes type pick.  At 31 the Twins look to pick up one of the top catchers.  Guy is only 5'9" with average tools but looks to have the arm to stick.  At38 Hendry Chivili is there typical Shortstop pick that doesn't work out.  He is a projection pick with average tools across the board right now.

At 16 there is so much extra projection risk it is no wonder most of these guys flame out but the Twins balanced out their top picks pretty well this year.  Here's hoping all three work out along with some lottery ticket types they pick up.  Maybe another Arraez in there somewhere.

I'm afraid that I'm a little disappointed that we weren't able to snag a better catcher. #1 Ethan Salas would have been great!

[Dman]

45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm afraid that I'm a little disappointed that we weren't able to snag a better catcher. #1 Ethan Salas would have been great!

Yeah Salas would have been a great get.  Still Silva looks solid at least they are grabbing one of higher rated catchers for once.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Fangraphs has Chivilli much higher than MLB.com. Top 10 Latin America player. Like you said it's real challenging to rate these young guys, but they make Chivilli sound pretty exciting.

Thanks for the info!!  Recency bias has got me bit down on some of their SS picks. Really hope Chivilli turns out.  The MLB article did say he has a lot of good projection but hard to judge at 17.  Would have liked it more if they thought he had a plus bat but who knows he might have more plus skills as he develops.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Dman said:

Thanks for info!!  Recency bias has got me bit down on some of their SS picks. Really hope Chivilli turns out.  The MLB article did say he has a lot of good projection but hard to judge at 17.  Would have liked it more if they thought he had a plus bat but who knows he might more plus skills as he develops.

For sure. Fangraphs mentions his speed and arm strength so at least he seems to have athleticism to stay at SS. They also praised his approach at the plate which is always something I look for with those youngsters. Plenty of them can go out into the backfields and hit the ball 450 ft in BP, but can they read a pitch and do it in a game? Certainly not betting my house on any of these kids, but there's some intriguing things in the fangraphs scouting report. I prefer their reports because they tend to be a little more realistic than MLB who tends to try to make everyone sound like future stars (which then is a shot at them not praising Chivilli more). Such a crapshoot with kids this age, though.

[Dman]

45 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure. Fangraphs mentions his speed and arm strength so at least he seems to have athleticism to stay at SS. They also praised his approach at the plate which is always something I look for with those youngsters. Plenty of them can go out into the backfields and hit the ball 450 ft in BP, but can they read a pitch and do it in a game? Certainly not betting my house on any of these kids, but there's some intriguing things in the fangraphs scouting report. I prefer their reports because they tend to be a little more realistic than MLB who tends to try to make everyone sound like future stars (which then is a shot at them not praising Chivilli more). Such a crapshoot with kids this age, though.

Yeah I went to Fangraphs and he seems to be rated their 2nd best shortstop.  They have him with a 70 arm and like you said good foot speed and bat speed.  I mean if you read between the lines the MLB writeup says he has a projected strong arm but they just give solid tools across the board description and they have him ranked 38th so not the ringing endorsement fangraphs gives Chivilli.  After reading the fangraphs description you can't help but be super excited about the kid.  It seems like the Twins have been going after some real solid young shortstops recently.  Last year in the 2022 draft they grabbed Danial Omari who might have 4 out of 5 plus tools but there are questions about the bat.  2021 they grabbed Noah Miller who might not have a ton of plus tools yet but he is switch hitter and it looks like his defense is going to be good.  The Twins are going to have some talented young players in the lower levels.

Fangraphs is not quite as high on Castro as MLB.com.  Looks like a more bat heavy prospect than one that is tooled up.  Still he looks like a nice pick as I like bat first players.  They seem to move faster.

The catcher the Twins are picking does not seem to be on the fangraphs list but still nice the Twins are grabbing one.

At any rate thanks for the info makes me feel better about Chivilli but all these guys have a long ways to go.  Most of them won't get past the FCL or A ball.  Those that make it past that have decent odds though.  Pro ball is brutally tough as you keep going up against the best of the best.

[terrydactyls]

The comments make it sound like this event is a draft.  Wasn't an international draft rejected by the players association and any eligible international player can be signed by any team as long as they don't exceed their draft pool money?

[old nurse]

46 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The comments make it sound like this event is a draft.  Wasn't an international draft rejected by the players association and any eligible international player can be signed by any team as long as they don't exceed their draft pool money?

The union did reject the draft. The Twins have just under 6.4 million to sped

[weitz41]

I like the guys they've signed. From what I've read, like any 16 year old, they all have a chance or tools to end up being the best player in this class. 

I don't remember the last time the Twins signed a catcher that was ranked in the top 50. So that's encouraging.

[Sielk]

13 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah I went to Fangraphs and he seems to be rated their 2nd best shortstop.  They have him with a 70 arm and like you said good foot speed and bat speed.  I mean if you read between the lines the MLB writeup says he has a projected strong arm but they just give solid tools across the board description and they have him ranked 38th so not the ringing endorsement fangraphs gives Chivilli.  After reading the fangraphs description you can't help but be super excited about the kid.  It seems like the Twins have been going after some real solid young shortstops recently.  Last year in the 2022 draft they grabbed Danial Omari who might have 4 out of 5 plus tools but there are questions about the bat.  2021 they grabbed Noah Miller who might not have a ton of plus tools yet but he is switch hitter and it looks like his defense is going to be good.  The Twins are going to have some talented young players in the lower levels.

Fangraphs is not quite as high on Castro as MLB.com.  Looks like a more bat heavy prospect than one that is tooled up.  Still he looks like a nice pick as I like bat first players.  They seem to move faster.

The catcher the Twins are picking does not seem to be on the fangraphs list but still nice the Twins are grabbing one.

At any rate thanks for the info makes me feel better about Chivilli but all these guys have a long ways to go.  Most of them won't get past the FCL or A ball.  Those that make it past that have decent odds though.  Pro ball is brutally tough as you keep going up against the best of the best.

Another interesting information in the Fangraphs report is his signing bonus which will apparently be over two million. I don't know how much Castro will sign for but it sure sounds like Chivilli might be their top player in this class. Maybe he is much higher regarded by the Twins and other teams than the MLB scouting report makes it sound.

Anyway, I like that Fangraphs scouting report. We will learn a little bit more about these kids tomorrow, I guess. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Signing day.  Here is the fangraphs board:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0

and here is an article about the new class by Eric Longenhagen https://blogs.fangraphs.com/board-update-2023-international-amateur-prospects/

Civilly has a 45 future grade, which is the top grade (well, two have “45+“). Castro has a 40.  Silva is not listed.

He says “the international amateur arena is a procedural and ethical mess”, and I’d agree with that.  I can’t believe they didn’t add an international draft into the new CBA.  The fact that signing day is already a fait accompli and that agreements have been long in the making is nuts.  Longenhagen says he is aware of half a dozen 2025 and 2026 players who have been given verbal commitments of over $3mm. Those are 14 year old kids!

[Doctor Gast]

On 1/14/2023 at 6:16 AM, weitz41 said:

I don't remember the last time the Twins signed a catcher that was ranked in the top 50. So that's encouraging.

That's too bad because there has been some pretty good catchers that have been pretty good

[AlwaysinModeration]

Honestly, the system is so messed up. Yesterday was arguably the most important day of the baseball calendar, when international prospects are gobbled up by the dozens with zero fanfare.  Baseball America has the international signing tracker here:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-international-signing-agreements-tracker/?amphtml

with Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami and Milwaukee have  announced upwards of 30 players signed each.  Given the uncertainty of signing 16 year olds, quantity seems a better strategy than “quality” - but who the hell knows?  Signing Juan Soto or Fernando Tatis is a coup.

Meanwhile, the Twins have signed six:

Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba 
Hendry Chivilli, SS, Dominican Republic 
Carlos Silva, C, Venezuela
Juan Hernandez, SS, Venezuela
Jeicol Surumay, RHP, Venezuela
Miguel Cordero, RHP, Venezuela

Hope some of them are good…

[DJL44]

On 1/13/2023 at 4:10 PM, Dman said:

Yeah Salas would have been a great get.  Still Silva looks solid at least they are grabbing one of higher rated catchers for once.

Silva pretty much instantly becomes the best catching prospect in the system.

[AZTwin]

Twins up to 10 prospects signed.  Was able to find video on one of them from a few years ago.  Outfield prospect.  
 

 

[Seth Stohs]

Just point of fact, there is still no international draft. They tried to get it into the new CBA, but the sides weren't able to work it out. 

The Twins would have had to sign Salas for more than the $6.5 million that the Padres gave him... and their total pool is like $6.6 million. So, it's about choices. Some years they've gone after the spendy guys. Other years, they've spread the wealth.