Should the Twins extend Arraez?

[CoasterProductions]

What would you think if the Twins extended Arraez? I would be all over it and would go Alex Anthopoulos on him and sign him to a long term yet cheap contract similar to Michael Harris’ extension 8-9 years 72-81 million.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd trade him. They have Lee, Lewis, Martin, Julien, Polanco even....not to mention anyone else they can find that can play second. Miranda or Kiriloff or others can DH or play first. 

[LewFordLives]

Count me as a big Arraez fan, but I would wait at least one more year before having this discussion. He still has three years of team control and his value will probably never be greater than it is today. While I don't necessarily expect he'll win the batting title every year, I would like to see him have another relatively injury free year and a high OBP.  If he does that, I'm all in. He's only 25, so he may not have even hit his prime yet.

[Doctor Gast]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd trade him. They have Lee, Lewis, Martin, Julien, Polanco even....not to mention anyone else they can find that can play second. Miranda or Kiriloff or others can DH or play first. 

Arraez can't play 2B, I'd rather have him learn to play 3B.

[mac098]

I'd say extend him to a very team friendly contract and see what the market would give. If the range is anywhere between 7-11 million/year, I think a lot of teams would be willing to make a trade for the ability to count on him getting on base. Not to mention he will always be in the running for a batting title and potentially a SS, seems almost like a no brainer

[chpettit19]

I don't trust his knees. To me he's the kind of guy you wait and see on. Let him go through the arbitration process since they still have control for a number of years. His knees are struggling in his early 20s, I'm not trusting him to hold up into his 30s.

[Nashvilletwin]

Would you extend this player?

Averages for first four seasons: Ave: .316; OBP: .366, OPS: .770.

Total plate appearances: 1,889. Age at the end of year 4: 25.

Compare to Arraez.

Arraez first four seasons averages: BA: .314; OBP: 0.374; OPS: .774 

Arraez total PAs: 1,569. Age at the end of year 4: 25

I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him.

Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, CoasterProductions said:

What would you think if the Twins extended Arraez? I would be all over it and would go Alex Anthopoulos on him and sign him to a long term yet cheap contract similar to Michael Harris’ extension 8-9 years 72-81 million.

Dont the Twins still have 3 yrs control on him?  If so to early to extend.

[solomon1930]

14 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Dont the Twins still have 3 yrs control on him?  If so to early to extend.

Yes they do and extending him at this time is premature.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Would you extend this player?

Averages for first four seasons: Ave: .316; OBP: .366, OPS: .770.

Total plate appearances: 1,889. Age at the end of year 4: 25.

Compare to Arraez.

Arraez first four seasons averages: BA: .314; OBP: 0.374; OPS: .774 

Arraez total PAs: 1,569. Age at the end of year 4: 25

I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him.

Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn

Tony gwynn was an of who didn't limp as he ran....

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tony gwynn was an of who didn't limp as he ran....

Wow, just think how good Arraez would be if he didn’t limp when he ran….haha.

[Malachi]

Wait a least 2 more years and see if he holds up 

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Would you extend this player?

Averages for first four seasons: Ave: .316; OBP: .366, OPS: .770.

Total plate appearances: 1,889. Age at the end of year 4: 25.

Compare to Arraez.

Arraez first four seasons averages: BA: .314; OBP: 0.374; OPS: .774 

Arraez total PAs: 1,569. Age at the end of year 4: 25

I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him.

Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn

Bat's like qwynn and hits like carew  ...

it's been along time since we had a hitter like this  that is a spark of excitement on the team  ...

Yes Mauer had the attention in the mid 2000 , his last 8 years there were more down years than good years  ...

People / fans like watching arraez play  ...

I would extend him , he may not be the fastest but he does run the bases well enough for me ...

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Bat's like qwynn and hits like carew  ...

it's been along time since we had a hitter like this  that is a spark of excitement on the team  ...

Yes Mauer had the attention in the mid 2000 , his last 8 years there were more down years than good years  ...

People / fans like watching arraez play  ...

I would extend him , he may not be the fastest but he does run the bases well enough for me ...

Cant wait until Joey G is driving him in with DBs and HRS.

[bap3141]

9 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

What would you think if the Twins extended Arraez? I would be all over it and would go Alex Anthopoulos on him and sign him to a long term yet cheap contract similar to Michael Harris’ extension 8-9 years 72-81 million.

Absolutely.  How the Braves continue to do that is amazing to me.  It should be made into a movie starring Brad Pitt as Anthopoulos.  

Another one that puzzles me, is what the heck sort of photos Cleveland had on Jose Ramirez to get him to accept THAT deal.  

[stringer bell]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Arraez can't play 2B, I'd rather have him learn to play 3B.

(BBRef stats) Arraez' career defensive numbers at second base are neutral. Only in his rookie year was he below average. I do not understand how people can dismiss his ability to play second base.

[Doctor Gast]

19 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

(BBRef stats) Arraez' career defensive numbers at second base are neutral. Only in his rookie year was he below average. I do not understand how people can dismiss his ability to play second base.

Because the shift hides such things, You need to go to pre shift to get an idea of what the eye tells you.

year '19 I believe there was at least less shift factor.

Season	Team	Level	Pos	Inn	rSZ	rCERA	rSB	rGDP	rARM	rGFP	rPM	DRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150	FRM	OAA	RAA
2019	MIN	MLB	2B	390.0				0		0	-9	-9		-0.7	-3.1	-1.2	-5.0	-22.6		-10	-7

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Dont the Twins still have 3 yrs control on him?  If so to early to extend.

If they wait until they only have 1 year of control left the amount of the extension will be too rich for the Twins and the player will just go to free agency. This is in the "Goldilocks" zone of team control. The other reason to extend him now is they probably don't want to lock him up past age 30. 5 years and $50M could get it done. That would give Arraez a nice payout and a chance at free agency at age 30. It would give the Twins 2 free agent years at about Joey Gallo money.

[farmerguychris]

I'd be much more interested in trading him while his value is high instead of extending him.  I think he's at his peak at the moment with his knees being good to him last year.  As athletes age knees don't tend to often get better like last year.

[Fatbat]

Give him an incentive laden extension that protects the team against his trick knees. That will increase his trade value even more but I would keep him around as a utility guy that is in a rotation that keeps him in the line up every day that he is able to limp. Chances are that he will always hit over .300 and have close to a .400 obp. That gets him close to 100 runs scored every year and makes up for his lack of defensive mobility.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Because the shift hides such things, You need to go to pre shift to get an idea of what the eye tells you.

year '19 I believe there was at least less shift factor.

Season	Team	Level	Pos	Inn	rSZ	rCERA	rSB	rGDP	rARM	rGFP	rPM	DRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150	FRM	OAA	RAA
2019	MIN	MLB	2B	390.0				0		0	-9	-9		-0.7	-3.1	-1.2	-5.0	-22.6		-10	-7

So many questions. Why just choose one year? How much less shifting was there in 2019? How exactly does shifting impact numbers for a second baseman? Why does Arraez specifically benefit so much from this from shifting? Isn't 390 innings (Arraez' 2019 innings at second) a really small sample size? 

Arraez doesn't have great range, certainly, and his arm isn't particularly strong. Playing second base IMHO doesn't require the raw athleticism that being a shortstop does and Arraez has developed to be a capable defender IMHO.  I don't know if he can be a 2B for 150 games, but I don't think his defense is off the charts bad, keeping him from being an option at second base.

[Nine of twelve]

He's not an outstanding fielder at any position and he never will be. But he's acceptable playing at second base if he can keep getting on base as well as or better than he did last season.

The other point: I don't think his trade value has peaked. I think it's very likely that his performance as a batter will improve between now and when he'll be eligible for free agency. Extending him sooner rather than later makes team-friendly terms much more achievable. Not only would that be good for the Twins if he stays on the team but it would increase his trade value.

[Old fox]

What ever you believe about Arraez whether it’s over batting over .310 or .280 ? It’s time to negotiate an extension. He is. 25-26 old batting average over .300 playing 3 years with bad knees. If the Twins wait until the final year of arbitration and he continues to bat over.300 the price will increase greatly. Arraez will be only 28 yrs. old with 6 yrs of batting over .300. 
Therefore, either the Twins should  extend Arraez or trade him?    In my opinion I don’t like bad knees, therefore, I in favor of trading him to Miami for a young starting pitcher Lopez or Cabrera. I maybe would consider enticement of Arraez, Kepler for Lopez &  Soler & (cash$$ or Scot a relief pitcher.)

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

So many questions. Why just choose one year? How much less shifting was there in 2019? How exactly does shifting impact numbers for a second baseman? Why does Arraez specifically benefit so much from this from shifting? Isn't 390 innings (Arraez' 2019 innings at second) a really small sample size? 

Arraez doesn't have great range, certainly, and his arm isn't particularly strong. Playing second base IMHO doesn't require the raw athleticism that being a shortstop does and Arraez has developed to be a capable defender IMHO.  I don't know if he can be a 2B for 150 games, but I don't think his defense is off the charts bad, keeping him from being an option at second base.

During '19 juiced ball, sluggers started to pull the ball more often. Although the shift existed in '19 it wasn't as prevalent as '20 & beyond. Arraez only started in MLB in '19 thus the small sample size. if he had played more before with even less shift (Twins were notorious with using the shift from the beginning) the stats would be more evident.

I can't believe that you have no understanding how the shift benefits a poor 2Bman! I'd need to have white board to explain. With a shift you can get by with a 2Bman that lacks athleticism but now a true 2Bman, much like SS has to have range or GB will constantly bleed through the right side, w/o the shift. Yes it does matter even in a few games if you want win those games.

[stringer bell]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

During '19 juiced ball, sluggers started to pull the ball more often. Although the shift existed in '19 it wasn't as prevalent as '20 & beyond. Arraez only started in MLB in '19 thus the small sample size. if he had played more before with even less shift (Twins were notorious with using the shift from the beginning) the stats would be more evident.

I can't believe that you have no understanding how the shift benefits a poor 2Bman! I'd need to have white board to explain. With a shift you can get by with a 2Bman that lacks athleticism but now a true 2Bman, much like SS has to have range or GB will constantly bleed through the right side, w/o the shift. Yes it does matter even in a few games if you want win those games.

I don't think it's infinitely easier to play second on the left side of the infield and I don't think it is easy to play short right field when it comes to making throws. Do you have numbers about how often shifting occurred in the last four years? Honestly, it looks like cherry picking to me to claim "Arraez can't play second base" when he registered positive numbers there in three straight years. Perhaps he benefited from shifting, but you've shown me nothing to prove he'll become a black hole if he's at second. 

[Doctor Gast]

On 1/14/2023 at 6:41 PM, stringer bell said:

I don't think it's infinitely easier to play second on the left side of the infield and I don't think it is easy to play short right field when it comes to making throws. Do you have numbers about how often shifting occurred in the last four years? Honestly, it looks like cherry picking to me to claim "Arraez can't play second base" when he registered positive numbers there in three straight years. Perhaps he benefited from shifting, but you've shown me nothing to prove he'll become a black hole if he's at second. 

Can you get out of stats & return to reality. The shift has existed for a long time but with the increase in analytics the last few years, the shift has increased with every year (am I wrong?). This shift greatly puts the hitter to a disadvantage and put the defense to an unfair advantage, especially the 2Bman because he's in the middle of this defense. He is helped out by everyone around him so he needs no range. It was due to such an unfair disadvantage that they had to ban it. (are you following me?)

So Arraez stats are not true indicators of his real 2B defense abilities especially his last 3 years. If Arraez plays any 2B this year, this will be the true indicator of Arraez's true ability at 2B. I personally don't want to be proven right. Keep him off 2B

 

[stringer bell]

33 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Can you get out of stats & return to reality. The shift has existed for a long time but with the increase in analytics the last few years, the shift has increased with every year (am I wrong?). This shift greatly puts the hitter to a disadvantage and put the defense to an unfair advantage, especially the 2Bman because he's in the middle of this defense. He is helped out by everyone around him so he needs no range. It was due to such an unfair disadvantage that they had to ban it. (are you following me?)

So Arraez stats are not true indicators of his real 2B defense abilities especially his last 3 years. If Arraez plays any 2B this year, this will be the true indicator of Arraez's true ability at 2B. I personally don't want to find out.

 

So, by your logic, all defensive stats during the "shift era" shouldn't count? The other two guys who played second more than ten times in 2022 had worse defensive runs saved and zone ratings than Arraez. Why would Arraez benefit so disproportionately compared to the league? 

Look, I get that he's not fast and never will have above average range. His arm is on the weak side, as well, but second base is an infield place for guys without off-the-charts range and arm strength. I'm probably as old as you and have watched a lot of baseball and my eye test says " acceptable" and yes, he's a better second baseman than Nick Gordon. 

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

This shift greatly puts the hitter to a disadvantage and put the defense to an unfair advantage

 

At the risk of going off topic I'll say that the advantage a shift gives to fielding is totally fair and within the rules, at least it was until the end of the 2022 season.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

At the risk of going off topic I'll say that the advantage a shift gives to fielding is totally fair and within the rules, at least it was until the end of the 2022 season.

Agree that we’ve gotten off topic. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 1/14/2023 at 8:30 PM, stringer bell said:

So, by your logic, all defensive stats during the "shift era" shouldn't count? The other two guys who played second more than ten times in 2022 had worse defensive runs saved and zone ratings than Arraez. Why would Arraez benefit so disproportionately compared to the league? 

Look, I get that he's not fast and never will have above average range. His arm is on the weak side, as well, but second base is an infield place for guys without off-the-charts range and arm strength. I'm probably as old as you and have watched a lot of baseball and my eye test says " acceptable" and yes, he's a better second baseman than Nick Gordon. 

Agreed that Arraez is a decent 2nd baseman, at least to my not so critical eye test. It’s a spot that is less critical than SS or 3B, in terms of range and arm, and doesn’t require the wingspan of 1B, Arraez most recent spot on the diamond.

he’s been their best hitter. I have questions about whether his knees hold up and his OBP stays elevated, but man that guy can hit!

I’d probably lean towards extend. Trade some of the excess minor league SS prospect capital for pitching