Rumor: Twins have talked to Marlins about Pablo Lopez

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Pagan has to added to any trade! Lol

The new Brian Duensing

well, not really a deal sweetener  but more like cheap vinegar or Fox Deluxe

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

I know the price would be higher but why not trade for a pitcher with more than 2 years of team control?

Because more than likely that is what is up for bids

[bap3141]

9 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

The Twins talked to the Marlins about Pablo Lopez. Some of the other names mentioned were Max Kepler and Luis Arraez, however the Twins do not want to part ways with Arraez.

 

View full rumor

 

Good, they shouldn't include Arraez for a pitcher that was bad after his 7th start last year, in his only healthy season no less, and doesn't have amazing stuff. 

Pablo Lopez is a depth piece, not an impact frontline starter like many seem to think that he is.

[Malachi]

5 hours ago, Cris E said:

They just sent out their SS and don't really have a good replacement on the roster.  Send Royce Lewis for a real return.  Correa has really changed his value to us, especially with Lee and Noah Miller on his heels. 

I Mean.... reasonable but royce is like, everyone's favorite

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

It can barely be believed that Max would have been the Marlins 3rd best (OPS+) hitter last year. The Twins should be offering a little 'instant offense' package of Garlick, Kep, Gordon and Arraez. They could get  Luzardo and one of Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez.

That would be a pretty good deal for them, as they clearly don't have the cash to bring in decent hitters, and just sent away another contributor.  The Twins would probably have to pick up most of the salary on that, but it could work. Miami might want to get a prospect, then they can't have Gordon.

We scored less than 700 runs last year.  Seems like the only team's "instant offense" we should be concerned about is our own.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Not even in the ballpark for Lopez....

Multiple reports that there was a deal the Yankees turned down at the deadline last year. It was Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera for Pablo Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Cabrera is an ok, not great prospect who was MLB ready. Rojas was just traded for Jacob Amaya. Amaya is an ok, not great prospect who is ready. So the Marlins felt Lopez was worth Gleyber Torres. The Yankees thought Lopez was worth less than Gleyber Torres. Gleyber Torres may be a "big name" because he played in NY, but he's not some star. Torres had a 114 OPS+ last year. Nick Gordon was at 113. Pablo Lopez then went on to have an ERA of 4.61 in August and 4.24 in September. He's now got less team control than he did at the deadline, and Gordon has much more than Torres. I don't get why people think Lopez is some high priced commodity. He's not.

[Peter]

Not if but when twins get pitcher whether it’s Lopez or not. I’m not sure they should get rid of our batting champion but rather Kepler as he’s expandable with gallo on team. With cc resigned and when twins get whatever starter from Miami. Can see division championship this year!!! I’m pumped up for season to start let’s go twins!!!

[TopGunn#22]

There will be a trade (or trades plural) coming at some point.  The Twins roster is jammed with players at certain positions and they need a horse to lead the staff who could give them 170-190 innings.  Lopez would be that guy.  He's just 26 years old and has 2 years of team control.  By that time, the Twins F.O. will have figured out who from Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, and others (Ryan is a no-brainer) will be staying and going.  I still like a play for Lopez AND Sixto Sanchez.  I'm not averse to trading Arraez, his value will never be higher.  I'm anxious to see Julien, with more power and as "The God of Walks" replace him.  To me, one of Arraez or Polanco should be traded. (I'd consider Larnach in the right package as well).   I'd still engage with Colorado for a possible Kepler for German Marquez deal.  Stockpile some arms and let Lee, Lewis, Julien, Rodriguez among others hit their way onto the Twins and into the everyday lineup.     

[August J Gloop]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

We scored less than 700 runs last year.  Seems like the only team's "instant offense" we should be concerned about is our own.

Yes, but yet we could jettison all 4 of those guys and still feature 10 batters who are able to OPS+ well over 100. My point in the suggestion is that Miami is in a really bad place and the twins have enough knocking at the door to help them out with established big league bats. It's a good match for a trade.

[August J Gloop]

18 hours ago, I wish the twins were good said:

This is... not happening, even if they pay Kepler's salary. There's no way they are getting Luzardo and Lopez. The four players you mentioned for Lopez straight up would be about even though.

 

Trade values don't exist in a vacuum. While BTV sees all teams as able to access the same pools of players, it's obviously not real life.  The Marlins would be adding wins with that trade, and not subtracting much from their pitching potential. While the fish would technically be losing potential Win value, as it stands at leas some of their talent will be rotting at AAA, wasting their value entirely. And losing erodes talent, so Lop and Luz might be worth less by the deadline.   

But if the Marlins insisted, the Twins could toss in a prospect like Lee to get it over the top. Or Two if they don't want Arraez. Or they could take Rogers instead of Luzardo. 

That being said, I wasn't saying that's the only route. I'm just saying that the Twins extra bits would be sure fire starters for the Marlins, so a deal can be made there without really hampering the Twins pursuit of the ALC crown (and eventual playoff success). 

[Beast]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Gordon and Pagan should be enough to get Lopez (assuming the Marlins believe in his 2022 breakout). Gordon straight up would probably be enough, but I just want Pagan to go away so I kept him in there.

Nobody is taking Nick Gordon for Pablo Lopez straight up.

[Beast]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Multiple reports that there was a deal the Yankees turned down at the deadline last year. It was Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera for Pablo Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Cabrera is an ok, not great prospect who was MLB ready. Rojas was just traded for Jacob Amaya. Amaya is an ok, not great prospect who is ready. So the Marlins felt Lopez was worth Gleyber Torres. The Yankees thought Lopez was worth less than Gleyber Torres. Gleyber Torres may be a "big name" because he played in NY, but he's not some star. Torres had a 114 OPS+ last year. Nick Gordon was at 113. Pablo Lopez then went on to have an ERA of 4.61 in August and 4.24 in September. He's now got less team control than he did at the deadline, and Gordon has much more than Torres. I don't get why people think Lopez is some high priced commodity. He's not.

Torres was a 4.1 WAR player last year.  He can play SS.  His career OPS+ is 114. Gordon’s is 101.  Gordon spent 4-5 years in the minors battling to keep his OPS over .700.  Torres has numerous years over .800, some over .900, and one over 1.000.  Torres has been an All Star twice.  He hit 38 home runs a couple years back.  He’s registers OPS+ of 122, 128, 103, and 114 in 4 of the last 5 full seasons.  Torres had a dWAR if 1.4 last year.  Gordon has never posted a positive dWAR.  Torres has never had a negative WPA season.  Gordon’s career number is 0 and was a negative last year (his “breakout”).

Gordon isn’t even on the same planet as Torres in terms of track record and potential.  He’s a replacement level bench guy who is lucky to be in the league right now.  If he weren’t a top 10 pick with his pedigree (dad and brother) he probably would’ve washed out into an independent league years ago.

Nobody is giving anybody anything for Nick Gordon.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Beast said:

Torres was a 4.1 WAR player last year.  He can play SS.  His career OPS+ is 114. Gordon’s is 101.  Gordon spent 4-5 years in the minors battling to keep his OPS over .700.  Torres has numerous years over .800, some over .900, and one over 1.000.  Torres has been an All Star twice.  He hit 38 home runs a couple years back.  He’s registers OPS+ of 122, 128, 103, and 114 in 4 of the last 5 full seasons.  Torres had a dWAR if 1.4 last year.  Gordon has never posted a positive dWAR.  Torres has never had a negative WPA season.  Gordon’s career number is 0 and was a negative last year (his “breakout”).

Gordon isn’t even on the same planet as Torres in terms of track record and potential.  He’s a replacement level bench guy who is lucky to be in the league right now.  If he weren’t a top 10 pick with his pedigree (dad and brother) he probably would’ve washed out into an independent league years ago.

Nobody is giving anybody anything for Nick Gordon.

Agree to disagree on Torres. You named a whole bunch of numbers from pre-2020 Torres. He has a 104 OPS+ since 2020. 4.9 total bWAR since then. Gleyber Torres is nowhere near the player you're trying to suggest he is. He was moved to 2B because he can't play SS. He had 2.7 fWAR in 2022. Gordon had 1.5. Torres has 4.3 fWAR since 2020. That's a 1.4 WAR player. Again, Gordon had 1.5 last year. And Gordon has 5 years of control left.

Your OPS numbers are just factually incorrect. He's never had an OPS over 1.000 in any season. Never. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 3 minor league games in 2021 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .697 OPS in 127 games in the majors that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 for 7 games in low A in 2014 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .826 OPS in rookie and low A combined that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 18 AFL games in 2016 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .775 OPS that year in high A. He's also never had an OPS over .900 for a season. I mean you're flat out making stuff up. In 2018 he had a .903 OPS in 17 games between high A and AAA during a rehab stint. He had an OPS of .820 in 123 MLB games that year.

Since 2019, both of their career years, Max Kepler has more bWAR, and is only 6 points of OPS+ lower than Torres. Kepler had 2.0 fWAR last year. He's had 5.4 since 2020. That's 1.8 per season. And people are screaming that he needs to get traded cuz he's basically useless on a playoff hopeful team. He's been better than Torres for the last 3 years. So, yeah, I'm going to stick with Torres not being any sort of star, and Lopez not being all that expensive of a commodity.

[mac098]

I'm almost to point of "Get it done." We need some pitching and we have a plethora of LH OF on our team. Gordon, Kepler, or Larnach. Maybe even toss in a minor leaguer that is close to MLB ready. But we need to get something, especially if we've invested at least the next 6 years to CC. We owe him that much. The FO owes their fan-base that much. 

[MGX]

55 minutes ago, Beast said:

Torres was a 4.1 WAR player last year.  He can play SS.  His career OPS+ is 114. Gordon’s is 101.  Gordon spent 4-5 years in the minors battling to keep his OPS over .700.  Torres has numerous years over .800, some over .900, and one over 1.000.  Torres has been an All Star twice.  He hit 38 home runs a couple years back.  He’s registers OPS+ of 122, 128, 103, and 114 in 4 of the last 5 full seasons.  Torres had a dWAR if 1.4 last year.  Gordon has never posted a positive dWAR.  Torres has never had a negative WPA season.  Gordon’s career number is 0 and was a negative last year (his “breakout”).

Gordon isn’t even on the same planet as Torres in terms of track record and potential.  He’s a replacement level bench guy who is lucky to be in the league right now.  If he weren’t a top 10 pick with his pedigree (dad and brother) he probably would’ve washed out into an independent league years ago.

Nobody is giving anybody anything for Nick Gordon.

Torres hit 38 HR's in 2019 - aka the juiced ball year. That is also his highest OPS year - .871 so I'm not where you're seeing over .900 and 1.000, that simply didn't happen. In fact if you take out 2019 he's been over .800 OPS 1 time, in 2018. Since the 2019 season his best OPS season is .761, last season. Last year while in 2nd season getting about 2/3 worth of a season's PA's Nick Gordon produced a .743 OPS, which is a big jump from his first season. Both players are still relatively young & could get better. To try to paint a picture where Torres is really valuable & Gordon has no value at all "who is lucky to be in the league" is just non-sense. 

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Yes, but yet we could jettison all 4 of those guys and still feature 10 batters who are able to OPS+ well over 100. My point in the suggestion is that Miami is in a really bad place and the twins have enough knocking at the door to help them out with established big league bats. It's a good match for a trade.

We had 11 guys over 100 last year.  You've included 3 of them in this trade.  One has already been traded.  One will not be healthy until mid season AT BEST.  One has 65 career plate appearances and one can't stay healthy to save his own life.  Sounds like less than 700 runs again to me.

[chpettit19]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions

"Miami reportedly asked about outfielder Max Kepler or infielder Luis Arraez in return." Interesting quote in here for everyone claiming Kepler has no value and/or Lopez is some super expensive piece the Twins would need to trade young, high-end prospects for.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions

"Miami reportedly asked about outfielder Max Kepler or infielder Luis Arraez in return." Interesting quote in here for everyone claiming Kepler has no value and/or Lopez is some super expensive piece the Twins would need to trade young, high-end prospects for.

I would totally agree that Max Kepler still has plenty of value to other teams and to the Twins as well. I don't believe that Kepler alone will bring back any of Lopez, Cabrera, or Luzardo. I do think that Arraez might, but it is likely that a sweetener needs to added from a non 40 person roster player like Austin Martin or Noah Miller. Hopefully the two teams keep a dialogue going and complete a trade because Miami needs a bat or two and the Twins could use a pitcher with upside.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I would totally agree that Max Kepler still has plenty of value to other teams and to the Twins as well. I don't believe that Kepler alone will bring back any of Lopez, Cabrera, or Luzardo. I do think that Arraez might, but it is likely that a sweetener needs to added from a non 40 person roster player like Austin Martin or Noah Miller. Hopefully the two teams keep a dialogue going and complete a trade because Miami needs a bat or two and the Twins could use a pitcher with upside.

Kepler and Nowlin (or someone else in that 20-30 organizational prospect range) would be my offer for Lopez. I wouldn't go any higher than that. I think Lopez would be the Twins #5 starter this year, and only higher than Ober because I don't trust Ober to throw more than 100 innings.

Cabrera or Luzardo? I'd deal Arraez+others for them. They have real upside and real control left. Not sure exactly what kind of package I'd be willing to ship out for them (I wouldn't trade Lewis, Lee, or Rodriguez for them), but I'd certainly be open to a package centered around Arraez and Martin for someone with their frontline potential and team control.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kepler and Nowlin (or someone else in that 20-30 organizational prospect range) would be my offer for Lopez. I wouldn't go any higher than that. I think Lopez would be the Twins #5 starter this year, and only higher than Ober because I don't trust Ober to throw more than 100 innings.

Cabrera or Luzardo? I'd deal Arraez+others for them. They have real upside and real control left. Not sure exactly what kind of package I'd be willing to ship out for them (I wouldn't trade Lewis, Lee, or Rodriguez for them), but I'd certainly be open to a package centered around Arraez and Martin for someone with their frontline potential and team control.

You might be light on your evaluation of Lopez but pitchers are notoriously difficult from year to year and always carry the risk of arm injuries. Kepler and Larnach might be acceptable. Maybe Miami would take Pagan in a trade too but that is just me wanting to avoid any more debacles with Emilio.

I'm keen to add Cabrera or Luzardo because of their potential to front a rotation. This is what the Twins need, now and going forward. I do give up Arraez and Larnach for either guy. Perhaps add Miller.

I would rather the Twins stand pat than see them trade any of E-Rod, Lee, or Lewis. These guys have more potential for the Twins than they currently have in trade value.

[chpettit19]

52 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You might be light on your evaluation of Lopez but pitchers are notoriously difficult from year to year and always carry the risk of arm injuries. Kepler and Larnach might be acceptable. Maybe Miami would take Pagan in a trade too but that is just me wanting to avoid any more debacles with Emilio.

I'm keen to add Cabrera or Luzardo because of their potential to front a rotation. This is what the Twins need, now and going forward. I do give up Arraez and Larnach for either guy. Perhaps add Miller.

I would rather the Twins stand pat than see them trade any of E-Rod, Lee, or Lewis. These guys have more potential for the Twins than they currently have in trade value.

To me, Kepler and Larnach would be a massive overpay for Lopez. With the Yankees turning down sending Gleyber Torres to Miami in exchange for Lopez last year we know at least 1 team didn't find him worthy of a guy who's had 4.9 bWAR and 4.3 fWAR from 2020-2022. Max Kepler has had 5.2 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR from 2020-2022. Torres and Kepler, like Lopez, have 2 years of team control left. Torres will be paid either 10.2 or 9.7 million next year depending on how his arbitration hearing goes. Max Kepler will make 8.5. Torres will get a raise on that 2023 contract in his last year of arbitration in 2024 while Max will be on a 10 million team option. Torres is younger than Max, and had a better year last year, but I don't know why we should think Lopez is worth much more than Kepler at all. We have real world evidence that the league doesn't seem to think he's worth more than that.

Edited to add: And after the Yankees turned down that trade Lopez went on to have 2 really bad months with a 4.61 ERA in August, and 4.24 in September. His value certainly didn't go up after that trade was turned down. Oh, and his ERAs in June and July were 5.34 and 4.65. He's simply not a great pitcher. Thus I'd put him 5th in our current rotation simply because Ober can't stay healthy.

[Heiny]

How about E. Cabrerra  for Kepler Garlick and Martin?

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

To me, Kepler and Larnach would be a massive overpay for Lopez. With the Yankees turning down sending Gleyber Torres to Miami in exchange for Lopez last year we know at least 1 team didn't find him worthy of a guy who's had 4.9 bWAR and 4.3 fWAR from 2020-2022. Max Kepler has had 5.2 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR from 2020-2022. Torres and Kepler, like Lopez, have 2 years of team control left. Torres will be paid either 10.2 or 9.7 million next year depending on how his arbitration hearing goes. Max Kepler will make 8.5. Torres will get a raise on that 2023 contract in his last year of arbitration in 2024 while Max will be on a 10 million team option. Torres is younger than Max, and had a better year last year, but I don't know why we should think Lopez is worth much more than Kepler at all. We have real world evidence that the league doesn't seem to think he's worth more than that.

Edited to add: And after the Yankees turned down that trade Lopez went on to have 2 really bad months with a 4.61 ERA in August, and 4.24 in September. His value certainly didn't go up after that trade was turned down. Oh, and his ERAs in June and July were 5.34 and 4.65. He's simply not a great pitcher. Thus I'd put him 5th in our current rotation simply because Ober can't stay healthy.

Just focus on Cabrera and Luzardo.

[GP830]

Edit- NVM