Ranking the Top 5 Most Likely Trade Chips for the Twins

[mikelink45]

The only way to know the best trade chips is to listen to what the other teams want. It's always easy to say we've got extra outfielders so trade one or we got too many Short stops now so let's trade one. But if the other side doesn't want them there is no trade.

I'm also questioning the wisdom of trading Gray. What has more value in this day and age than a good pitcher and if we think he doesn't have value now because he has only one year left on his contract the other teams will feel the same.

We speculate on the value of our two returning injured pitchers but we have no true way of judging whether they will be good or bad.

I have no problem with a trade I just can't speculate until I know the teams that are involved and what each needs. 

[cHawk]

As I have stated before, the Twins either need to commit to winning in 2023 or rebuilding for the future. Apparently they plan to choose the former option. Offloading Sonny Gray would be beneficial to the latter, but detrimental to the former.

[Heiny]

I would like to add Chaffin and McCutchen or Mancini via free agency.  For that to happen we have to find two spots on the 40 man.  Currently I can only see DFAing Moran or McGill.  Only other way would be to trade some off of our 40 man for less 40 man candidates coming back.  I now have a renewed confidence (after getting CC back) in our front office for doing some creative maneuvering.  Also, after being dead set against signing Bauer, I am becoming al little softer on that idea.  Still not real keen on it though.  Softening up on Wacha also, providing depth if a trade is not made for a more top of the line SP.  Howevvveerrr,   If we went into the season with the roster as currently constructed, I'd be fine with that.  I just don't think Falvine is done tinkering and I strongly believe there will be some kind of trade coming.  My personal preference though, is to not trade Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Prielipp and definately not Brooks Lee.

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I would like to add Chaffin and McCutchen or Mancini via free agency.  For that to happen we have to find two spots on the 40 man.  Currently I can only see DFAing Moran or McGill.  Only other way would be to trade some off of our 40 man for less 40 man candidates coming back.  I now have a renewed confidence (after getting CC back) in our front office for doing some creative maneuvering.  Also, after being dead set against signing Bauer, I am becoming al little softer on that idea.  Still not real keen on it though.  Softening up on Wacha also, providing depth if a trade is not made for a more top of the line SP.  Howevvveerrr,   If we went into the season with the roster as currently constructed, I'd be fine with that.  I just don't think Falvine is done tinkering and I strongly believe there will be some kind of trade coming.  My personal preference though, is to not trade Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Prielipp and definately not Brooks Lee.

I'd be really surprised, and pretty disappointed, if they DFAed Moran. He had a better K/9 than Duran last year. In 40.2 innings (not huge sample size, but not nothing) he had an 11.95 K/9, 2.21 ERA, 1.78 FIP, .9 fWAR, and gave up 0 HRs. I'm not putting him in the closers role, but for the league minimum, and with option years left, I'm keeping that guy around. For reference Duran's numbers were 67.2 IP, 11.84 K/9, 1.86 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 1.5 fWAR, and 6 HRs given up.

[Tibs]

There is a 0.000001% chance Sonny Gray is traded this offseason. Simply no way you do that after signing Carlos Correa

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet.  He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward.

2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point.

The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

Amen to Nick Gordon being an OUTFIELDER & no longer a utility infielder. 100% on him being best option, probably 60 plus games in CF this year, behind Buxton. Every day LF otherwise!! 550 at bats & he’s a 40 doubles - 15 HR guy with durability & speed. 160lbs to 185lbs in 6 months last winter/spring.

”Celestino. Please.” …….again, 100%. Can’t be in” on roster of 26!!

TRADE:

Celestino - Kepler - (1 of Sands - Winder - Ober) - Farm System IF as well  - with our new depth at SS. (hang on to Lee & Lewis) These 4 guys for a front line starter.

I think, with moderate success, we extend Mahle - Gray - Maeda in late June……2 of the 3 possibly. Also, I see Maeda out of the Pen first 2-3 months at least.

Kirilof or Walner, if an absolute must, should be offered in a trade before Arraez!! He’s 26 and just scratching his potential. If he hit anywhere but lead-off his doubles & RBI would be up considerably. He’s in “get on base mode” batting lead-off. Can’t disrespect the 4 year BA of .314!! .316 in ‘22 wasn’t some fluke, or high point for trade purposes. We wish & hope 3-4 other guys in our Farm System could turn into the hitter Arraez is……cannot trade the batting champ!

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, KScott said:

Ace du jour, Gray, Mahle, Maede, Ryan, Ober, who is the odd man out and what do you do with them?

Maeda to the bullpen. He's coming off injury.

[Loosey]

I've written this before, but the Twins have a ton of options to make big trades, but first they need to know where the replacements are at.  Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Kiriloff and to a lesser extent Austin Martin could come in and a take over for some variation of Polanco, Arraez and Kepler.  But until we know if Lee and Austin can play above AAA, Is Lewis healthy and back to his late May MLB self and is Kiriloff's shaved down wrist bone OK, i really don't think they can do much right now.  With all that Arraez is probably the one who is most likely to go today.  He is position-less, and could probably be replaced with guys currently on the roster. at about 90% replacement value.  

[gman]

They signed Correa to a 6 year plus 4 option years contract. This does not add up to a blow up the team and farm system to win at all cost right now scenario. This is a still a team in very much a development stage. A couple of minor trades are not likely to turn this into a world series team. I expect this year to be very much into find places for the best talent.

They do have 3 starters with 1 year remaining on their contracts, someone will get signed, someone traded and someone hurt. Take your pick, all 3 are likely to fit these possibilities. Plus we do need to look at some of the minor league talent this year in case all three are gone next year.

I don't think we need to trade low on anybody right now. Unless someone overwhelms us, I would expect more active trades in July then now. Yeah Arraez may not have more trade value than right now, since when did that make a good reason to start trading your best players?

[wsnydes]

Barring a blockbuster type trade, the only one on this list that I see actually being dealt this off-season is Kepler.  Beyond that, it's more subtraction by addition and I don't know what scenario that makes sense in.  

With the logjam of corner types, they need to see who actually performs before jettisoning any of those guys.  That seems better suited for a deadline deal, not the offseason.  Trading pitching on this team makes no sense unless they're bringing an equal replacement or upgrade back.  

Gordon is one of those weird types of player that has no real trade value, but is one of those players that every good team needs.  At best , he's an add in for a team.  

[sun]

I wouldn't want to see Arraez traded for a pitcher with only 2 years of control when the Twins haven't even tried to extend Arraez yet. His trade value would rise if they could extend him and then get 1 or 2 pitchers with more control or more upside. If the Twins can't extend him because he's too steadfast like Rosario was then trade him away. But the Twins need to protect themselves by negotiating with him first. 

I would prefer to see one or two of the outfielders go like Celestino and Kepler.

The Twins should simply purchase a FA pitcher before spring training begins. Since Toronto recently signed Chris Bassit for $21 mil per year, the Twins should at least be able to afford Wacha. We have plenty of young pitchers to fill in for him if he goes on the IL. A small difference in ERA is not that big of a deal if you have disciplined hitters on the team who don't chase at the plate. 

[darin617]

7 hours ago, TwinsGM said:

This is an overpay for Lopez but his market is hot right now.  A lot of teams would love to have Lopez.  The Twins have a ton of depth in their lineup which is attractive to the Marlins who lack any offense and I think it makes the most sense to trade from the depth of players that don't have a home position nor are the strongest defensive players.  

Maybe if he had 3-4 years of team control.

[bowserthedog]

8 hours ago, KScott said:

So for those that are saying don't trade Gray. If the Twins do trade for an Ace caliber pitcher (Lopez etc). And we have these names to work with: Ace du jour, Gray, Mahle, Maede, Ryan, Ober, who is the odd man out and what do you do with them?

At the same time Winder, Varland, and Paddack can all be added to that conversation  as they are fighting for MLB spots. If you stash those 4 guys at AAA, that clogs up spots for SWR, Laweryson, etc.

So in my mind it makes sense to trade one of the MLB pitchers. Given that Mahle and Maede probably won't hold any teams interest, would you rather trade away Ryan or Ober? What type of return would you expect to get from that trade?

 

I don't think we would be trading young controllable cheap pitching. Don't trade any pitchers right now. We can take the approach of seeing what we have. Sure we may need to trade an outfielder because we can't keep them all on the roster. But other then that why not see what the current collection of players gets us. If we can't be in a playoff position with some padding at the deadline then we look at trading away some players who are pending free agents. If we are in a good position then we look at what it out there that can help us win a playoff series. We look for top 3 starters or perhaps more relief pitching. Id like to see us try and hold onto Kepler to see how his offensive numbers profile without facing shift before trading him. But that might not be possible. 

[Fred]

9 hours ago, TwinsGM said:

This is an overpay for Lopez but his market is hot right now.  A lot of teams would love to have Lopez.  The Twins have a ton of depth in their lineup which is attractive to the Marlins who lack any offense and I think it makes the most sense to trade from the depth of players that don't have a home position nor are the strongest defensive players.  

Maybe they could look at saving some payroll and substitute Kepler for Julien or Martin. All the defense in the world does you no good if you lose 3-2 every night. At least Martin is a right-handed bat. Julien doesn't cost them 8 million plus. Defense isn't the only thing to consider

[h2oface]

Past MO is that all pitchers, especially our best pitchers, have to be traded with 1 1/2 years to 1/2 year left on their contract. This means all of our pitchers pretty much. Yet, they trade the ones we have homegrown, and trade for pitchers in the same boat. Correct me if I am wrong.......

[dxpavelka]

Don't hold your breath on Kepler.  Given the inability of Larnach and Kirilloff to stay on the field could be a huge mistake.

[Doc Munson]

I'd see if Kepler and Farmer and a prospect coudl get us the remains of Chris Sale from teh Red Sox.

 

After losing Xander, and now Story having elbow surgery, Sox are in a bad spot.

[DocBauer]

I always believe in advancing your roster, tweaking your roster, etc, to put together the best TEAM together you can.

And yes, trades of talent is a great way to add to or augment your roster. But, unfortunately, if you take a step back and REALLY LOOK at the Twins roster as of now, where is the glaring hole? FA still offers a couple solid RP options and the Twins should jump at the chance to add at least ONE to deepen the pen and not just trust in a full return to form/potential of Alcala. Fulmer being brought back makes so much sense! I think Moran has a bright future, but he's still better against RH bats. How about a 1yr on Hand? That's $ spent, and no trades, to deepen the pen and make the whole staff better.

And speaking of the staff, rotation in particular, what is the obsession with adding Lopez, with 2yrs of control? He's young, talented, and MIGHT be on the precipice of being better. But is he better than what we have right now? Is he better than a healthy Gray and Mahle? 

I am NOT opposed to adding a RP or 2 if the $ work out. And this team ABSOLUTELY needs another RH bat despite Correa being back. And I'm NOT opposed to trading for a quality young SP to add with control.

The OF is too crowded. If we move Kepler and Gallo is not the player he was the previous 6yrs before 2022, we run a real risk. But when do we not trust in Larnach, and Kirilloff, (also at 1B), and Wallner, with Gordon as a fill-in?

I hate to say it, but the biggest trade "problem" the Twins have is timing. If Arraez is a prize in a deal, and he should be, his potential replacements for what he does are Martin and Julien. Not to mention Lewis and Lee, though slightly different offensive profiles. Could Martin or Julien jump to the ML level to replace what Areaez does to the lineup at this point? That's a huge stretch.

IMO, Kirilloff is off the table for anyone until his surgery proves he's ready to fulfill his talent/potential.

And while I don't want to trade away talent...who does...I'm looking at Arraez/Julien. Larnach/Wallner, and at least one arm in SWR/Varland/Balazovic/Festa. I might even look hard at Severino as a young and super talented young kid who finally started to put it together in 2022.

IF the Twins could trade from this list, minus Arraez maybe, and maybe substitute a young A player that is NOT Rodriguez somewhere, I'd be happy to do so. 

Again, the Twins trade options bite is a number of really talented prospects to deal either not proven enough yet for value to the other team, or potentially not ready enough yet to step up to the ML level with the Twins as a replacement option.

Just feels like the Twins are 6-12 months away of really seeing a TON of young talent pounding on the door, if they haven't already broken through. So do we trade early? Or do we see all the talent on hand do what it can when healthy and go from there?

[Karbo]

20 hours ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

I think Farmer and Gordon can coexist on the roster. Farmer becomes a platoon with Kepler and we put Farmer in the infield and slide someone else into the corner OF. Just make Farmer be what Garlick was last year 

I can see a platoon situation where they move Miranda to 1b against lefties and play Farmer at 3rd.

[TopGunn#22]

I rec'd Twins GM because I like his thought process even though I'd rather trade Larnach than Jullien & Martin.  I don't see us trading a SP unless one of the teams we talk to wants a SP back, and Miami would be focused on bats.  However, the Yankees for Montas the Pirates for Endy Rodriguez, Colorado for Marquez are all possibilities.  I see not just one, but maybe a couple of trades coming.  I'm 100% on board with trading Jeffers, especially if he could be included with something else in a deal with the Pirates for Rodriguez.  A tandem of Vazquez the vet and Rodriquez as the catcher of the future would be outstanding.  I'd overpay with the Pirates to make that happen.  We have nothing for the next 2-3 years for catching coming up in our farm system.

[HoskenPowell]

Gray should stay with the Twins at least until trade deadline.  If we are out of the race then trade him for sure if they don't intend on resigning him.    Araez would be the guy to trade in my opinion.   No true position. Leg injury in his history and no baserunning skill set.    Sell high on him.    Like every Twins fan I would love to see Pagan gone , but no one is gonna give diddly for him.   Couldn't possibly sell lower on him so see if he can turn it around.   AK worries me with the wrist injury ,  I would trade him with no hesitation and also would trade Gordon or Lewis as they replicate positions and skill sets.

 

Go get Chafin for the pen and quit screwing around.   DO NOT waste Correa and Buxtons prime years.

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Don't hold your breath on Kepler.  Given the inability of Larnach and Kirilloff to stay on the field could be a huge mistake.

If Larnach or Kirlloff can't stay on the field, why does Kepler need to be the answer? There surely will be more Kyle Garicks and Jake Caves available on the cheap. They can hit just as poorly as Kepler but cost 10M less.

[Major League Ready]

There is simply no need to be in a rush.  I would hope they trade if and when they get a great return.  We have so many question marks right now that it is very difficult to assess what's best long-term.  Things will very likely be more clear at the deadline.  Why not hold on and see what comes together and what does not come together.  The one exception I see is Kepler.  I don't see them picking up his option and we have young guys that should get a shot so let max go.  I would also trade one of Arrez or Polanco IF the return was right.

It makes absolutely no sense to trade away pitching right now.  The demand / return is always there at the deadline.  No way would I trade anymore prospects or prearb players for pitchers with 2 years of control.  They spent plenty of long-term capital last year and got nothing for it.  Lopez for Kepler is a different story.  Try to extend him.  Trade him if that does not come to fruition.

We also can't say we just can't produce prospects like Tampa/Oakland if we are not willing to make the trades that have been a very big part of them producing more young talent than us and most of the rest of the league.

[JD-TWINS]

There’s 22 guys in MLB that hit over .290 in ‘22. 11 guys hit over .300. We have a guy that hit .316 & lead the A.L. He will turn 26 in April. His four year BA is .314. Next best average on team is CC at .291 - 21st on the list of 22.

He is a contact hitter. He’s positioned in the lead-off spot most of the time so his job is to “get on base”. When Carew moved from #2 to #3 in the line-up he hit 14 HR’s twice after a handful for his first 7 years……,he had 90 plus RBI a couple times, 100 RBI in ‘77.

I don’t think Arraez is Carew but he’s awfully close. Carew had bad knees and moved from 2B to 1B around his 7th-8th year in league & then proceeded to make the All-Star team 11 more times at 1B. Considering, just considering, to trade Luis Arraez is nuts!!!

With our current line-up he may be most valuable leading off……..not sure though? He is a great guy to have behind someone in the line-up you want to see better pitches (protect). He could bat 2nd, behind Buxton……3rd behind Buxton……..5th behind Miranda or Polanco?? Any other position from 3rd or lower in line-up & his RBI go from 48 to 85!!!

Starting Pitcher trade material from TWINS…….Kepler - López - Jeffers - Martin - Celestino - Pagan - Winder - Sands………IF necessary, Walner or Kirilof. Maybe an Infielder other than Lewis or Lee.

Needs to be some 4-5 player deal without Arraez that can get us an arm.

[Lagputter]

I really have to laugh at all the people saying you can't trade this guy or that guy, but trade these other "dregs", of the organization we don't need.  While that would be great, what can you expect to get back for them?  If you want a QUALITY SP like a Lopez, you HAVE to give something of quality back.  The Marlins or any team is not going to take our 29th or 30th player on the 40 man for Lopez or his equivalent.  It will take giving up an Arraez, or something similar.  And I am a HUGE Arraez fan, and have the shirt to prove it.

[Elliot]

Gray - NO - closest thing to a veteran ace on the staff. Even if he walks it is no worse than a FA on a 1 year deal. 

Larnach, Kiriloff - NO - selling at a low point now. Maybe mid summer after proving value with effective return from injury. 

Farmer - NO - only real backup SS on the roster until Lewis is back. Celestine is similar in CF. 

Kepler - not a give-away. Only if you are able to get value. Good value to Twins until above return from injury takes place. 

Gordon, Arraez - in both cases you may be selling at a high point. Not thrilled with parting with either, but OK if you are getting something in return that is clearly better than the 4 or 5 young pitchers currently in the mix for the 5th spot in the rotation. 

Twins do not have to make a trade. They traded a lot of value out of the minors last year. Unless a clear upgrade is available at a reasonable price, I say roll the dice on a return to health. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins do not need to make trades. I agree with those that say that statement. Miami though has a big need for bats because they simply have not been able to score any runs. They also have a handful of arms that are ready and project as top of a rotation starting pitcher. All of Lopez, Luzardo, and Cabrera are pitchers that batters cannot hit, and they also have guys like Fulton, Meyer, and Eder who have good upside. The Marlins have stated that Alcantara and Perez are off limits. Thus the Marlins are busy answering their phones right now.

The Twins may want to wait, which seems prudent. However, waiting will also mean that access to these highly rated pitchers will likely be history. Thus the difficult decision is how much future value is there for the Twins in paying a steep price for Lopez, Cabrera, or Luzardo now. From Miami's side, who can hit now and still be valuable for several years. My best guess is that one or two or some combination of Arraez, Kepler, Miranda, Lewis, Martin, Larnach, and Jeffers hold appeal for the Marlins. 

One thought is that Miami may be open to a reduced return if a team takes Jorge Soler in a deal. Maybe Larnach and Jeffers returns Cabrera with Soler attached. A trade with Miami is truly tricky and involves risk, but not as much risk as signing Correa. So it may be posssible depending on how Falvey sees our current roster. The Twins do not have to trade but the time is right and while nobody knows right now, Cabrera and Luzardo could be absolute anchors for a Twins staff.

[Finlander]

Gray was frustrated at times last year by Baldelli's quick hook. I'm guessing that he won't be interested at all in extending with MN unless he's going deeper into games in 2023. That's probably why his name is being thrown out there as a candidate.

Arraez is an elite talent with the bat. Positionless? Why not do away with the rotating DH and put him there essentially full time? Nobody had a problem with Nellie Cruz there. Bad knees? Remember Tony Oliva? And Arraez has enough defensive versatility to play the field on occasion. I'd only include him in a package to get two arms back in a deal, say for Miami's Cabrera and Luzardo.

The paths for playing time for both Martin and Lewis look to be redundant - so I'd be okay moving either one in a deal. I think many of our best trade pieces are still in "prove it" mode though, so I don't think the Twins would make a large deal before seeing them perform in spring training. Potential trading partner teams would like to see them too.

[August J Gloop]

15 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

I'd see if Kepler and Farmer and a prospect coudl get us the remains of Chris Sale from teh Red Sox.

 

After losing Xander, and now Story having elbow surgery, Sox are in a bad spot.

The Twins could get Sale for being willing to pay his contract. The only reason to send anyone back would be since you're gonna clear the roster spot anyway. Put a prospect in the deal and the Twins get one of the Sox best prospects or half off the contract. 

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If Larnach or Kirlloff can't stay on the field, why does Kepler need to be the answer? There surely will be more Kyle Garicks and Jake Caves available on the cheap. They can hit just as poorly as Kepler but cost 10M less.

There's a reason Garlicks and Caves are cheap.