Gleeman’s Top 40 Twins Prospects

[AlwaysinModeration]

Aaron posted his annual top 40 prospect list on the Athletic on Monday, which means that it is now the 11th story in the list of stories on the Athletic’s Twins page.  As the Athletic is subscription based, I’m not going to list the whole top 40 here, but I’ll list the top five and a couple of other interesting (at least to me) players on his list - and/or their locations on the list.

He starts by noting that 5 of last year’s top 10 graduated - Duran, Ryan, Miranda, Winder and Celestino, and 11 of the top 25 from 2022 are graduated or gone from the org.

1. Brooks Lee: “switch-hitting shortstop many considered the country’s premier college bat”

2. Royce Lewis:  “if something resembling [the early 2022] version of Lewis remains intact after another 12 months of rehab, the Twins will have a 24-year-old building block”

3.  Emmanuel Rodriguez:  “has as much upside as anyone in the Twins system and could be a consensus top-25 global prospect this time next year”

4. Matt Wallner: “even a batting average in the low .200s, combined with 30 homers and lots of walks, could make Wallner an impact bat, but expect plenty of swings and misses”

5. Austin Martin: “in just 12 months, the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft had gone from a consensus top-50 global prospect to being absent from most top-100 lists…[but] don’t write him off just yet”

…

10. Yasser Mercedes: “elite bat speed and power-athleticism combination….one of the highest-upside prospects in the Twins’ system”

…

14. Jordan Balazovic:  “stock plummeted about as far as possible without a major arm injury involved… still just 24 years old…a huge question mark…but still has mid-rotation upside”

…

29. Brett Headrick: “deception and command have gotten him this far, but to succeed as a starter in the majors his changeup needs to become a reliable weapon versus righty sluggers”

…

36. Keoni Cavaco: “still just 21 years old — three months younger than 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee … finished on a high note with a good September, but his overall game remains very raw”

If you don’t have a subscription to the Athletic, it’s recommended. To read the rest of the top 40, click here: https://theathletic.com/4005153/2023/01/09/top-twins-prospects-brooks-lee/?source=user_shared_article

 

 

[Sielk]

I was surprised how many international prospects there were on the list and how high many of them ranked. That's especially true for the most recent class of 2022, since Gleeman usually values prospects who have established themselves a bit more. But Yasser, José Rodríguez and Bryan Acuña are all in the Top 20. Compared to that, it seems almost like an omission to not include Anderson Nova at all. 

Well, this either means these kids are amazing or that the Twins' system is just not very good overall. I will just choose to believe the former. ?

But overall, I like the list a lot. The Twins certainly don't have a great farm system compared to the rest of the league but there are still some interesting prospects with star upside.

[Brad.dahlen]

I am very curious on Lee. Can he make an impact by fall of 2023?

 

[Fatbat]

  On 1/12/2023 at 1:40 PM, Brad.dahlen said:

I am very curious on Lee. Can he make an impact by fall of 2023?

 

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I think we will hear a lot about Lee if he has a great spring training and starts at SS with the Saints. As soon as he lights up AAA pitchers, the twins will be forced to find a place for him in MLB. If Lewis and Lee are here in June/July and there is a roster squeeze, then we can shop for an Ace SP before the trade deadline. 

[Brad.dahlen]

  On 1/12/2023 at 2:56 PM, Fatbat said:

I think we will hear a lot about Lee if he has a great spring training and starts at SS with the Saints. As soon as he lights up AAA pitchers, the twins will be forced to find a place for him in MLB. If Lewis and Lee are here in June/July and there is a roster squeeze, then we can shop for an Ace SP before the trade deadline. 

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I think there's no issue having Correa, Lee, and Lewis all in the same lineup. Would you get rid of Lee before you looked to shop Polanco or Arraez? Players with versatility will be paramount with Correa's and Buxton's health. Having two guys who can slide from 3B/2B over to SS could be huge. Also, Lewis getting at-bats in LF & CF. 

 

I believe I've read that Lee doesn't project as an everyday SS but rather an above average 3B. I'd imagine he could play SS once or twice a week when Correa needs rest. Allowing you to maybe let Royce focus on the outfield. 

[Fatbat]

  On 1/12/2023 at 3:12 PM, Brad.dahlen said:

I think there's no issue having Correa, Lee, and Lewis all in the same lineup. Would you get rid of Lee before you looked to shop Polanco or Arraez? Players with versatility will be paramount with Correa's and Buxton's health. Having two guys who can slide from 3B/2B over to SS could be huge. Also, Lewis getting at-bats in LF & CF. 

 

I believe I've read that Lee doesn't project as an everyday SS but rather an above average 3B. I'd imagine he could play SS once or twice a week when Correa needs rest. Allowing you to maybe let Royce focus on the outfield. 

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I would never trade Lewis or Lee. They should be our young building blocks along with Erod in the outfield in 24/25 and Miranda and Julien in the IF. Lewis projects anywhere and Lee and Correa anchor the left side of the diamond. Eventually its sell Kepler/polanco/Celestino. 

[Brad.dahlen]

  On 1/12/2023 at 3:45 PM, Fatbat said:

I would never trade Lewis or Lee. They should be our young building blocks along with Erod in the outfield in 24/25 and Miranda and Julien in the IF. Lewis projects anywhere and Lee and Correa anchor the left side of the diamond. Eventually its sell Kepler/polanco/Celestino. 

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This would be a great direction to go in. 

[Nine of twelve]

  On 1/12/2023 at 3:45 PM, Fatbat said:

I would never trade Lewis or Lee. 

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Any and every player (except those with no-trade clauses in their contracts) should be traded if the trade makes the organization better.

[4twinsJA]

Enjoyed Gleeman's article in Athletic. Interesting that 11 of last year's top 25 are off list-5 graduated from prospect list and contributed to Twins last year, 5 traded, and 1 released. A lot of new names on the list this year. A good mix of near MLB ready players and low level prospects. I am anxious to see how pitching develops- Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Headrick, Festa, and younger prospects Raya, Prielipp, 

[ashbury]

I am super skeptical of Emmanuel Rodriguez. He built his 2022 stats on a .272 batting average but with so many walks that his OBP was .493. That's close to Barry Bonds territory, but I worry that it's based on the opposing pitchers not throwing him strikes. And yet he did strike out more than a little. As he progresses, will those walks turn into base hits, or into strikeouts? I come back to that .272 BA which presumably came from him swinging only at pitches he really liked - somehow I'm thinking if he really overmatched his opponents then that BA would have been higher.

I don't know how to look up reasonable comps for his minor league season, to see how others like him panned out. Just from spot checking a few single-A seasons far enough in the past that we know "the future", I can't even find a similar disparity between huge OBP and pedestrian BA.

2023 may tell us whether he's a unicorn to be valued, or just weird.

[tony&rodney]

  On 1/12/2023 at 10:19 PM, ashbury said:

I am super skeptical of Emmanuel Rodriguez. He built his 2022 stats on a .272 batting average but with so many walks that his OBP was .493. That's close to Barry Bonds territory, but I worry that it's based on the opposing pitchers not throwing him strikes. And yet he did strike out more than a little. As he progresses, will those walks turn into base hits, or into strikeouts? I come back to that .272 BA which presumably came from him swinging only at pitches he really liked - somehow I'm thinking if he really overmatched his opponents then that BA would have been higher.

I don't know how to look up reasonable comps for his minor league season, to see how others like him panned out. Just from spot checking a few single-A seasons far enough in the past that we know "the future", I can't even find a similar disparity between huge OBP and pedestrian BA.

2023 may tell us whether he's a unicorn to be valued, or just weird.

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Emmanuel Rodriguez should be the most interesting Twins prospect to watch and follow this coming season for precisely the reasons you cover in your post. The Twins could really use a star to emerge, someone somewhat similar to Julio Rodriguez of Seattle. Emmanuel has a pretty swing, some evaluators who love him, and he gave us a tease last year before he was injured. I'm intrigued by his skills and what that looks like this year.

[Fatbat]

  On 1/12/2023 at 10:19 PM, ashbury said:

I am super skeptical of Emmanuel Rodriguez. He built his 2022 stats on a .272 batting average but with so many walks that his OBP was .493. That's close to Barry Bonds territory, but I worry that it's based on the opposing pitchers not throwing him strikes. And yet he did strike out more than a little. As he progresses, will those walks turn into base hits, or into strikeouts? I come back to that .272 BA which presumably came from him swinging only at pitches he really liked - somehow I'm thinking if he really overmatched his opponents then that BA would have been higher.

I don't know how to look up reasonable comps for his minor league season, to see how others like him panned out. Just from spot checking a few single-A seasons far enough in the past that we know "the future", I can't even find a similar disparity between huge OBP and pedestrian BA.

2023 may tell us whether he's a unicorn to be valued, or just weird.

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Wouldn’t a young Barry Bonds type player be fun to watch in a Twins uniform! (big smile emoji)

[tony&rodney]

  On 1/12/2023 at 10:35 PM, Fatbat said:

Wouldn’t a young Barry Bonds type player be fun to watch in a Twins uniform! (big smile emoji)

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Wow. That would be amazing. 

[Fatbat]

  On 1/12/2023 at 10:31 PM, tony&rodney said:

Emmanuel Rodriguez should be the most interesting Twins prospect to watch and follow this coming season for precisely the reasons you cover in your post. The Twins could really use a star to emerge, someone somewhat similar to Julio Rodriguez of Seattle. Emmanuel has a pretty swing, some evaluators who love him, and he gave us a tease last year before he was injured. I'm intrigued by his skills and what that looks like this year.

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Just because…. The kid is 19 years old. 84 pro games played in 2 years.  80 walks in 352 plate appearances.  .429obp .538 SLG … 10 doubles, 5 triples and 19 hrs.  Thats exciting. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Fatbat
Fat thumb

[ashbury]

  On 1/12/2023 at 10:35 PM, Fatbat said:

Wouldn’t a young Barry Bonds type player be fun to watch in a Twins uniform! (big smile emoji)

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Bonds was in the minors for so short a time that it's hard to make a comparison, but at age 21 in AAA Bonds had 33 walks in 186 PA, while our guy Emmanuel had 57 walks in 199 PA in single-A at age 19. That's a huge difference - Bonds's OBP minus BA was a noteworthy .125 at AAA while our guy's was .221 - those are video game numbers.

Bonds's power hadn't fully come in yet, at that time. That occurred in the majors and then his OBP-BA went .200+ bizarro too.  For Emmanuel to have that kind of stat breakdown with only normal power (for his age), is amazing. I don't think the walk rate foretells power like Bonds though - since for Bonds it went the other way 'round.

Juan Soto led the majors in walks in 2022. Is our ERod the next JSoto? Well, Soto certainly was great in the minors but the batting average was his calling card more than the walks - BA of .362 in the minors led to his OBP of .434, a difference of "only" .072.

Aaron Judge, Max Muncy, and Christian Yelich were next after Soto. Their minor league stats don't look much like our guy's either.

I just don't know to whom to compare him. The walks are gonna come down, and by a lot - they simply have to, and I just can't visualize yet what the remaining stats will be like.

As T&R said, interesting to watch, yes.

[Fatbat]

  On 1/12/2023 at 11:36 PM, ashbury said:

Bonds was in the minors for so short a time that it's hard to make a comparison, but at age 21 in AAA Bonds had 33 walks in 186 PA, while our guy Emmanuel had 57 walks in 199 PA in single-A at age 19. That's a huge difference - Bonds's OBP minus BA was a noteworthy .125 at AAA while our guy's was .221 - those are video game numbers.

Bonds's power hadn't fully come in yet, at that time. That occurred in the majors and then his OBP-BA went .200+ bizarro too.  For Emmanuel to have that kind of stat breakdown with only normal power (for his age), is amazing. I don't think the walk rate foretells power like Bonds though - since for Bonds it went the other way 'round.

Juan Soto led the majors in walks in 2022. Is our ERod the next JSoto? Well, Soto certainly was great in the minors but the batting average was his calling card more than the walks - BA of .362 in the minors led to his OBP of .434, a difference of "only" .072.

Aaron Judge, Max Muncy, and Christian Yelich were next after Soto. Their minor league stats don't look much like our guy's either.

I just don't know to whom to compare him. The walks are gonna come down, and by a lot - they simply have to, and I just can't visualize yet what the remaining stats will be like.

As T&R said, interesting to watch, yes.

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The kid has a great eye for the ball and has all the skills to make the big show. I just hope he isn't fragile like buxton! So exciting to watch him develop in the next couple years! 

[ashbury]

  On 1/12/2023 at 11:45 PM, Fatbat said:

The kid has a great eye for the ball and has all the skills to make the big show. I just hope he isn't fragile like buxton! So exciting to watch him develop in the next couple years! 

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I gotta take back one thing I said, because it unfairly characterized our guy's power. His isolated power (SLG-BA) is also greater last year than Bonds's  minor league stat line. ERod certainly didn't build his 1.000 OPS on walks alone!

[sweetmusicviola16]

Anybody know where Noah Miller is on the list?

[AlwaysinModeration]

  On 1/12/2023 at 11:48 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Anybody know where Noah Miller is on the list?

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Yes

[ashbury]

  On 1/13/2023 at 12:31 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Yes

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Specifically,, the people paying their good dollars for a subscription.

[se7799]

  On 1/12/2023 at 10:19 PM, ashbury said:

I am super skeptical of Emmanuel Rodriguez. He built his 2022 stats on a .272 batting average but with so many walks that his OBP was .493. That's close to Barry Bonds territory, but I worry that it's based on the opposing pitchers not throwing him strikes. And yet he did strike out more than a little. As he progresses, will those walks turn into base hits, or into strikeouts? I come back to that .272 BA which presumably came from him swinging only at pitches he really liked - somehow I'm thinking if he really overmatched his opponents then that BA would have been higher.

I don't know how to look up reasonable comps for his minor league season, to see how others like him panned out. Just from spot checking a few single-A seasons far enough in the past that we know "the future", I can't even find a similar disparity between huge OBP and pedestrian BA.

2023 may tell us whether he's a unicorn to be valued, or just weird.

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Just my opinion.  But a 270 BA for a 19 year old teenager from thr DR isn't pedestrian.  Has a really good eye and drives the ball.  A treat to watch him in person I lovec his hustle I believe is OPS was also in the 1000 range.  I think he will only improve with experience.

[AlwaysinModeration]

By the way, Noah Miller is 15.

[Doctor Gast]

  On 1/12/2023 at 3:12 PM, Brad.dahlen said:

I think there's no issue having Correa, Lee, and Lewis all in the same lineup. Would you get rid of Lee before you looked to shop Polanco or Arraez? Players with versatility will be paramount with Correa's and Buxton's health. Having two guys who can slide from 3B/2B over to SS could be huge. Also, Lewis getting at-bats in LF & CF. 

 

I believe I've read that Lee doesn't project as an everyday SS but rather an above average 3B. I'd imagine he could play SS once or twice a week when Correa needs rest. Allowing you to maybe let Royce focus on the outfield. 

Expand  

I can see Correa, Lewis, Lee, Martin & Julien in the same line-up in '24. Correa SS, Lewis 2B, Lee 3B Martin OF & Julien 1B.

[Doctor Gast]

As we can see our glaring problem through our top prospects. As Jeffers is our designated future catcher & basically we don't  have anyone respectable even close to MLB. They put a band-aid on the problem by signing Vazquez. Jeffers best quality is that he's above avg. in framing & that might be obsolete soon. He has no arm that runners run at will. I'd even question him as back-up. We need a potential  elite MLB ready catching prospect, let get E Rodriguez (PIT)

[Brad.dahlen]

  On 1/13/2023 at 11:59 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I can see Correa, Lewis, Lee, Martin & Julien in the same line-up in '24. Correa SS, Lewis 2B, Martin OF & Julien 1B.

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I have been mapping out the roster for the next three years and there is certainly going to be a logjam of talent. Now we just hope the players develop the way they hopefully will.

[2wins87]

  On 1/12/2023 at 11:36 PM, ashbury said:

I just don't know to whom to compare him. The walks are gonna come down, and by a lot - they simply have to, and I just can't visualize yet what the remaining stats will be like.

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There aren't any really close statistical comps in A ball since 2006 (based on ISO > .200 and BB% > 20%):

All of the guys I came up with were older and no one really quite had the kind of walk rate that ERod did.  Several of these guys are also just a couple levels ahead of him right now so there aren't many full careers to look at.

I don't know how meaningful these kind of comps are at such a low level anyway so I usually only tend to do this for upper minors performance.  Honestly the first guy that comes to mind that we are all familiar with is Edouard Julien who had pretty similar K/BB rates in A ball.  It's continued to work for him so far.

I think there is still a lot of variance for ERod.  I think it's a given that he'll continue to hit for power but I'm not sure that strikeouts wont become a major problem at higher levels

[Major League Ready]

  On 1/13/2023 at 11:59 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I can see Correa, Lewis, Lee, Martin & Julien in the same line-up in '24. Correa SS, Lewis 2B, Lee 3B Martin OF & Julien 1B.

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I like it except where is Kirilloff in this scenario?  We would really be in business if Kirilloff reaches his potential.  In this scenario, Kirilloff is the primary 1B and plays some outfield while Julien plays 1B/2B/DH and I wonder if they don't experiment with him in the OF a bit too.  Julien and Martin could be the perfect complement in utility roles.  Between them they can play 8 positions and steal bases.

[Mike Sixel]

  On 1/13/2023 at 12:14 PM, Doctor Gast said:

As we can see our glaring problem through our top prospects. As Jeffers is our designated future catcher & basically we don't  have anyone respectable even close to MLB. They put a band-aid on the problem by signing Vazquez. Jeffers best quality is that he's above avg. in framing & that might be obsolete soon. He has no arm that runners run at will. I'd even question him as back-up. We need a potential  elite MLB ready catching prospect, let get E Rodriguez (PIT)

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Three years is a band aid? Also, the league as a whole is barren of catchers. I'm not worried.

[Doctor Gast]

  On 1/13/2023 at 4:05 PM, Major League Ready said:

I like it except where is Kirilloff in this scenario?  We would really be in business if Kirilloff reaches his potential.  In this scenario, Kirilloff is the primary 1B and plays some outfield while Julien plays 1B/2B/DH and I wonder if they don't experiment with him in the OF a bit too.  Julien and Martin could be the perfect complement in utility roles.  Between them they can play 8 positions and steal bases.

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This wouldn't be an everyday line-up. We'd have Kiriloff OF/ 1B/ DH, Miranda 3B, 1B, DH and Julien OF, 1B, DH & some 2B if need be.

I'm also hoping that Kiriloff reaches his full potential.

[farmerguychris]

  On 1/12/2023 at 3:12 PM, Brad.dahlen said:

I think there's no issue having Correa, Lee, and Lewis all in the same lineup. Would you get rid of Lee before you looked to shop Polanco or Arraez? Players with versatility will be paramount with Correa's and Buxton's health. Having two guys who can slide from 3B/2B over to SS could be huge. Also, Lewis getting at-bats in LF & CF. 

 

I believe I've read that Lee doesn't project as an everyday SS but rather an above average 3B. I'd imagine he could play SS once or twice a week when Correa needs rest. Allowing you to maybe let Royce focus on the outfield. 

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I would absolutely trade Polanco and Arraez before shopping Lewis and Lee.  I think the younger guys in this batch have higher ceilings.