Revisiting Max Kepler...

[bap3141]

Where we at with him?  Personally, I like the OF with Buxton, Kepler, Gallo but obviously there has been some speculation about him being shipped to a team like the Yankees.  Now that the Twins have actually had a solid off-season with the addition of Carlos Correa, does everyone want him traded? 

Who could they reasonably get from the Yankees?  Gleyber Torres would be a nice addition, but last I heard the Yankees have decided to keep him now.  I'd love to get Gleyber in a package that includes Kepler and Polanco.  That's only a lazy man's dream, since I haven't worked out how realistic it would be on either side.  

[Doctor Gast]

The only trade with the Yankees that I'd like is one that'd included Montas, that's it. And IDK if the Yankees would be open for that. Odds are we won't get what Kepler is worth.

[Brad.dahlen]

I mean, at this point it is more about getting rid of Kepler. Not enough production since 2019. I think they want to clear room for Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, Gallo ect. I wouldn't be surprised if they get very little return for Kepler. 

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

I mean, at this point it is more about getting rid of Kepler. Not enough production since 2019. I think they want to clear room for Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, Gallo ect. I wouldn't be surprised if they get very little return for Kepler. 

Welcome to TD!

[Fatbat]

Twins sign Correa, Gallo and a platoon catcher and everyone wants to trade away some of our better role players. Nothing needs to be done until at least the trade deadline. Let the maximum # of young studs develop in st. Paul for as long as possible. The starting OF should be Gallo (barf) Buck (pray) Kepler (smh) Until one of them is injured or failing, they get the starts ahead of Gordon, AK &TL.

[CRF]

At this point...if nothing changes, I'd rather see Gordon in the OF, than Kepler. Since we probably have to play Gallo...put Gallo in RF, Buck obviously in CF, and Gordon in LF. Kep has been giving us next to nothing and I think Gordon has more upside. The ideal thing would be to trade Kep, but I think his value is pretty low. 

[CoasterProductions]

I would trade him, not to the Yankees though. I would trade him as part of a package for Pablo Lopez and Edward Cabrera. Throw him in with Lewis, Martin, Pagan, and Wallner and you should have a deal.

[MMMordabito]

11 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Twins sign Correa, Gallo and a platoon catcher and everyone wants to trade away some of our better role players. Nothing needs to be done until at least the trade deadline. Let the maximum # of young studs develop in st. Paul for as long as possible. The starting OF should be Gallo (barf) Buck (pray) Kepler (smh) Until one of them is injured or failing, they get the starts ahead of Gordon, AK &TL.

I agree.  The majority sentiment with Kepler (on this site anyway) seems to be get rid of him and assume that (insert young LH OF) will be healthy and better.  2.1 bWAR is going to be a tall order for any of those players.  I still think Kepler has more value to the Twins at this moment then he will returning trade pieces.  

[Muppet]

5 minutes ago, CRF said:

At this point...if nothing changes, I'd rather see Gordon in the OF, than Kepler. Since we probably have to play Gallo...put Gallo in RF, Buck obviously in CF, and Gordon in LF. Kep has been giving us next to nothing and I think Gordon has more upside. The ideal thing would be to trade Kep, but I think his value is pretty low. 

Just like Arraez, nobody will ever respect Gordon until he wins a batting championship. Even then we'll find something to complain about. He's better off getting traded to a team that will appreciate him.  Sucks that Gallo is the replacement for Kepler. If anyone can actually provide less offense than Kepler, we found him. 

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I agree.  The majority sentiment with Kepler (on this site anyway) seems to be get rid of him and assume that (insert young LH OF) will be healthy and better.  2.1 bWAR is going to be a tall order for any of those players.  I still think Kepler has more value to the Twins at this moment then he will returning trade pieces.  

I would also like to see Gordon start LF and have Gallo/Kepler RF platoon but thats alot of part time salary. Lol 

[Battle ur tail off]

I'm fine with keeping him. I also am fine with trading him. I see his value as a lottery pick type prospect at this point. Possibly packaged with one in our top 10 prospect list for a #3-4 type starter. 

Maybe the play is to keep him until the trade deadline. With our outfield problems last year, I don't want to be running out AAAA guys again. See where we are weak with injuries etc. and maybe he can rebuild some of his value the first half of the season anyway. 

 

[August J Gloop]

Max only needs to go if they're running into payroll issues (which I doubt), otherwise his production is worth the streaky bat.

Maybe move him to a team that has a problematic contract from a previous administration. Javy Baez is a good example. He's making 24M this year, but wouldn't be shocked to find the (constantly) rebuilding Tigers would do Kep for Baez straight up (maybe one suspect/prospect to save face). That would put Baez at a 2023 payroll price of essentially 15M which his defense alone is worth. Of course that still leaves the Twins on the hook for 24-27, but the cost of wins will go up and his price is set. Maybe the Tigers are comfortable with a complimentary piece being paid like a team leader <shrug emoji>. He just seems more suited to being a contributor to a contender than a focal point of an emerging franchise. 

I could see a road to the Twins adding Baez and keeping Kep, but it's tough to see both of their downtrend bats in the lineup. You can totally stash a hitter like Baez at 9, cuz he can be explosive for a week and he's got good wheels. That means Kep would need to rediscover the line drive or there would be two pretty iffy spots in the lineup. 

Max appears to be of limited utility in acquiring pitching. So it might be most realistic to be considering his D and occasional offense a part of the team? 

[Dman]

I don't know why the Twins signed Gallo unless it was to replace Max. Otherwise you have two almost identical players vying for the exact same position at close to the same cost.  It doesn't make sense to keep both.  Also they are likely going to add more players yet and the Twins payroll is pretty much maxed at about 145M right now.  Getting 8M back is likely going to be important.

Other than Gordon and in the future possibly Lewis there really isn't any player in the system that can replace Max's defense in right.  However his bat has been so bad Larnach has been better at the plate and even Kirilloff and his bad wrist was as good as Kep Offensively so not losing much on offense even with the young guys replacing him.

Also the Twins have a glut of outfielders on the 40 man and they need at least one more right handed bat for the outfield.  So again it makes sense to move a left handed bat from the outfield and no one helps the payroll more than moving Kepler.

I don't know if the Twins will just do a straight up prospect trade, Trade him for a right handed outfield bat or make him part of a larger package but the writing is on the wall.  He is no longer a good fit for this team.  I think trading him is pretty much a done deal just a matter of when at this point.

[Steve Lein]

What I see in the Kepler/Gallo situation as a comparison, is if Gallo hits .200, he'll have an OPS of about .800. Where if Kepler hits .200, he'll OPS around .700.

I think Kepler is the better overall defender, but Gallo is no slouch either. Kepler gets graded top of the charts in Outs Above Average, while Gallo gets better marks on his OF reads and has elite arm strength (Kepler's arm gets rated okay, but I've never been impressed by it). I don't think we'll notice much as far as right-field defense is concerned if Kepler is sent off. But they could get a bigger bat with Gallo... (no, I'm not counting on it)

The issue with Kepler and why I think they want to deal him, is he does have some value, but they also have several guys on pre-arbitration salaries that play his same position (corner outfield). Many of those guys also have the potential to be better hitters.

So the question is do you want Kepler to stay around to take opportunities away from Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin (etc...)? Or do you want to go with your young guys with untapped potential and save some money in the process?

(I say all this knowing the signing of Gallo kinda does the same thing as rostering Kepler, but you have to clear some space somehow, and it appears the Twins would rather bet on Gallo to start).

[Musk21]

Max will turn 30 before the 2023 season starts. At this point, he is what he is......Above average defensively in the OF, but now on the wrong side of 30 and has a .232/.317/.427 career line.  2019 appears to be an outlier. Don't think we're going to get anything special for him in a trade.  Perhaps the Twins keep him 1 more year, but might be time to see what Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Celestino can do in the lineup.

[m-i-e-n-t-k-i-e-w-i-c-z]

3 hours ago, Muppet said:

Just like Arraez, nobody will ever respect Gordon until he wins a batting championship. Even then we'll find something to complain about. He's better off getting traded to a team that will appreciate him.  Sucks that Gallo is the replacement for Kepler. If anyone can actually provide less offense than Kepler, we found him. 

Don't trade Gordon! He's a talent with more room to develop, a useful utility player, and his positive energy is infectious (a great counterbalance to almost-dour Rocco....).

[Beast]

I don’t think we’re as deep in the OF as some do.

Buxton can’t stay healthy.  We don’t know how Alex K will come back.  Something strange went in with Larnach and his injury last year, and I’m not convinced he’s that good yet.  Gallo couldn’t hit last year.  We’re not sure when Lewis will be back and if he can stay on the field (he’s likely moving to OF with Correa locked in).  Things could go south in a hurry.

I wouldn’t be surprised If they move him.  But, I think they end up keeping him.  I’m thinking they likely wouldn’t have cut Garlick loose if they were planning on moving somebody.

I’d rather they keep him.  He has the highest, most stable floor out of any of the options.

The rumors have been swirling around Torres and Twins for what seems like years now.  I wouldn’t mind having him.  But, is he that much better than Polanco at 2nd when Polanco is healthy?  I don’t see that a deal that makes us a better team.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

I would trade him, not to the Yankees though. I would trade him as part of a package for Pablo Lopez and Edward Cabrera. Throw him in with Lewis, Martin, Pagan, and Wallner and you should have a deal.

Dont like trading Lewis.

[August J Gloop]

13 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Dont like trading Lewis.

Don't worry. Lewis is currently very near un-tradable. Until there is a clear indication of how he's gonna come back from his second attempt surgery, his value is closer to zero than Kepler. That's because there aren't that many rebuilding teams with valuable vets right now. A team like that will still bet on potential. But all the dance partners right now seem to be looking for solid big league options. 

Oakland, maybe? But Definitely not Miami. 

[roger]

Why is everyone talking about trading Max.  The player I see in right is as good as anyone in the game as far as right field D is concerned.  
 

I also believe that all the shifting affected Max as much as anyone in the game.   And I don’t care what his numbers were because I believe the shifting got into his head and he was mentally unable to do some of the things to offset the shift.  There is a real chance that we will see the Max of 2019 this year and it would be a bloody shame to see him doing that for another team.

Now if he is hitting .220 in July and one of the young guys is tearing the cover off the ball, then trade him.  

[Beast]

4 hours ago, Muppet said:

Just like Arraez, nobody will ever respect Gordon until he wins a batting championship. Even then we'll find something to complain about. He's better off getting traded to a team that will appreciate him.  Sucks that Gallo is the replacement for Kepler. If anyone can actually provide less offense than Kepler, we found him. 

His credentials:

1.7 WAR in over 600 ABs

Offensively, he’s exactly a 0.00% WPA, a negative cWPA.  Career 101 OPS+, .308 OBP, .403 slugging.  In all of years in the minors, he OPS’d over .750 one time, under .700 3 times, with a ceiling of .801 as a 23 year old.  2.0% HR rate, 24.3% K rate (very comparable to Buxton’s 23.1% in 2019, 26.7% in 2020, and 24.4% in 2021, when everyone was complaining about him striking out too much), 4.7% BB rate.  There is nothing even remotely promising about those numbers.  Those are rough.

Defensively, we’ve seen him allow winning runs to be scored by diving for and missing balls.  He’s a career -0.5 dWAR (actually worse in 2022 than 2021).  He’s below replacement level defensively.

He’s turned into an OK base runner at best, after being bad in 2021.

Also, just for fun, he’s got a 22.09 ERA, .476 BA against, 1.417 OPS against on the mound.

I think we’re some of the most “appreciative” and “respectful” fans in the league.  Clearly demonstrated by everyone’s love for Nick Gordon as a baseball player, for some reason.  

Great kid, I’m sure.  But, not that good at baseball (relative to the MLB).  There are maybe a handful of other places in the MLB that would’ve even let him see playing time above AAA.  He is in no way under appreciated.  There are 4-5 people in this thread alone clamoring for him to be a starter.

He’s just not a starting caliber player on a good baseball team.   He had a couple of nice moments last year.  I’m struggling to see how that turned him into this underrated borderline star player.

There’s some strange bias happening here.  Fans here routinely want to run much better players off the roster.  But, for some reason, many want to hand him the keys.  Case in point, lamenting Kepler’s lack of offense. He has the exact same career OPS+ as Gordon, who you think is underrated.  Kepler is much better defensively, and has a career OPS that’s 35 points higher.

[bloomwcjkl]

At $8.5 I'd 100% keep Max Kepler. With the shift gone for 2023, that should help some.

Gallo, Buxton, Kepler. We would need all the other outfielders for injury times, which I assume will be significant.

 

[August J Gloop]

9 minutes ago, roger said:

Why is everyone talking about trading Max.  The player I see in right is as good as anyone in the game as far as right field D is concerned.  
 

I also believe that all the shifting affected Max as much as anyone in the game.   And I don’t care what his numbers were because I believe the shifting got into his head and he was mentally unable to do some of the things to offset the shift.  There is a real chance that we will see the Max of 2019 this year and it would be a bloody shame to see him doing that for another team.

Now if he is hitting .220 in July and one of the young guys is tearing the cover off the ball, then trade him.  

Well, the only way Max has trade value is if someone believes the shift ban will help him. (Or other batted ball profiles) If he's hitting 220/300/300 in June the trade will be Max Kepler for the Absence of Max Kepler.  

It may be a mental approach to seeing the whole team standing between first and second, but Max's batter ball profile the past couple years is one who hits balls on the ground and elevates weak contact. The shift ain't really hurting that. The real secret is to get his hard hit percentage up, and decreasing his gB%.  If it were just that easy, everyone would hit. 

At his salary, I'd keep him as a 4th outfielder, if it came to that. Since there are so many teams who need multiple competent outfielders, but have 'extra' pitchers, the Twins should trade him now rather than later.  

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Why is everyone talking about trading Max.  The player I see in right is as good as anyone in the game as far as right field D is concerned.  
 

I also believe that all the shifting affected Max as much as anyone in the game.   And I don’t care what his numbers were because I believe the shifting got into his head and he was mentally unable to do some of the things to offset the shift.  There is a real chance that we will see the Max of 2019 this year and it would be a bloody shame to see him doing that for another team.

Now if he is hitting .220 in July and one of the young guys is tearing the cover off the ball, then trade him.  

Shifting is the main reason he went from 36 HR to 9.

relax. Just being sarcastic…

[Steve71]

I don't accept the premise that Gallo and Kepler play the same position.  Gallo can play LF and RF, and CF in a pinch.  Kepler can play RF and some CF.  An OF of Gallo-Buxton-Kepler would be elite, possibly the best defensive OF in all MLB.

[Muppet]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

His credentials:

1.7 WAR in over 600 ABs

Offensively, he’s exactly a 0.00% WPA, a negative cWPA.  Career 101 OPS+, .308 OBP, .403 slugging.  In all of years in the minors, he OPS’d over .750 one time, under .700 3 times, with a ceiling of .801 as a 23 year old.  2.0% HR rate, 24.3% K rate (very comparable to Buxton’s 23.1% in 2019, 26.7% in 2020, and 24.4% in 2021, when everyone was complaining about him striking out too much), 4.7% BB rate.  There is nothing even remotely promising about those numbers.  Those are rough.

Defensively, we’ve seen him allow winning runs to be scored by diving for and missing balls.  He’s a career -0.5 dWAR (actually worse in 2022 than 2021).  He’s below replacement level defensively.

He’s turned into an OK base runner at best, after being bad in 2021.

Also, just for fun, he’s got a 22.09 ERA, .476 BA against, 1.417 OPS against on the mound.

I think we’re some of the most “appreciative” and “respectful” fans in the league.  Clearly demonstrated by everyone’s love for Nick Gordon as a baseball player, for some reason.  

Great kid, I’m sure.  But, not that good at baseball (relative to the MLB).  There are maybe a handful of other places in the MLB that would’ve even let him see playing time above AAA.  He is in no way under appreciated.  There are 4-5 people in this thread alone clamoring for him to be a starter.

He’s just not a starting caliber player on a good baseball team.   He had a couple of nice moments last year.  I’m struggling to see how that turned him into this underrated borderline star player.

There’s some strange bias happening here.  Fans here routinely want to run much better players off the roster.  But, for some reason, many want to hand him the keys.  Case in point, lamenting Kepler’s lack of offense. He has the exact same career OPS+ as Gordon, who you think is underrated.  Kepler is much better defensively, and has a career OPS that’s 35 points higher.

None of this is wrong (that is to say, you're right), but is a matter of what and where you're looking. I see one player (Kepler) who has peaked and is on his way down. Gordon has always had a lot of promise and is starting to heat up. I would expect him to perform better offensively next year (maybe that's unfair). I also see him as someone who is extremely flexible. I stunk in the infield, so... moved to outfield and he is serviceable. He does make terrible plays, but I think he'll continue to learn from mistakes and straighten up a bit. 

Certainly Kepler's glove and arm are top notch, but I think this team loses games because they don't score runs more than anything else. Even when their pitching stinks, they still aren't scoring runs anyway. By the end of the season, Gordon was one of the few people who you'd feel comfortable coming to bat in a close game, or with a runner on. 

I like that we have stats on almost everything, but they can be misleading. For example, comparing OPS+ over a career of 8 years vs a career of 2 years doesn't quite work out. That said, two years also isn't really enough to project the future either. And I think with players like Kepler and Gordon, past performances aren't necessarily indicative of future performance. But I think Gordon is exciting, already good, and getting better despite his defensive flaws... which hopefully go away to some extent. When I see Kepler coming up in the inning, I just think automatic out. Especially if there is someone on base. But hold my beer, Gallo is FAR worse (though I'll take those few homeruns when they do happen). 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Steve71 said:

I don't accept the premise that Gallo and Kepler play the same position.  Gallo can play LF and RF, and CF in a pinch.  Kepler can play RF and some CF.  An OF of Gallo-Buxton-Kepler would be elite, possibly the best defensive OF in all MLB.

If they all get 450+ PA in 2023 the twins will be in great shape come October. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

His credentials:

1.7 WAR in over 600 ABs

Offensively, he’s exactly a 0.00% WPA, a negative cWPA.  Career 101 OPS+, .308 OBP, .403 slugging.  In all of years in the minors, he OPS’d over .750 one time, under .700 3 times, with a ceiling of .801 as a 23 year old.  2.0% HR rate, 24.3% K rate (very comparable to Buxton’s 23.1% in 2019, 26.7% in 2020, and 24.4% in 2021, when everyone was complaining about him striking out too much), 4.7% BB rate.  There is nothing even remotely promising about those numbers.  Those are rough.

Defensively, we’ve seen him allow winning runs to be scored by diving for and missing balls.  He’s a career -0.5 dWAR (actually worse in 2022 than 2021).  He’s below replacement level defensively.

He’s turned into an OK base runner at best, after being bad in 2021.

Also, just for fun, he’s got a 22.09 ERA, .476 BA against, 1.417 OPS against on the mound.

I think we’re some of the most “appreciative” and “respectful” fans in the league.  Clearly demonstrated by everyone’s love for Nick Gordon as a baseball player, for some reason.  

Great kid, I’m sure.  But, not that good at baseball (relative to the MLB).  There are maybe a handful of other places in the MLB that would’ve even let him see playing time above AAA.  He is in no way under appreciated.  There are 4-5 people in this thread alone clamoring for him to be a starter.

He’s just not a starting caliber player on a good baseball team.   He had a couple of nice moments last year.  I’m struggling to see how that turned him into this underrated borderline star player.

There’s some strange bias happening here.  Fans here routinely want to run much better players off the roster.  But, for some reason, many want to hand him the keys.  Case in point, lamenting Kepler’s lack of offense. He has the exact same career OPS+ as Gordon, who you think is underrated.  Kepler is much better defensively, and has a career OPS that’s 35 points higher.

I'm not sure that's the right way to look at things with Gordon. He was not good before 2022. In 2022, he provided 1.7 WAR  and a 113 OPS+, all while learning a new position in the OF.  His fielding isn't as good as Kepler's yet but he's very athletic and he's only just turned 27. There is at least the potential, and I would say a likelihood, that his defense will improve and his WAR will go up IF he hits like he did in 2022.  He also can play CF at a baseline level and appears willing to try to get better. He has speed that needs to be tamed to make him a better baserunner, something now more valuable as the rules change to encourage stolen bases. Solid recent performance with room to grow. 

By contrast, Kepler is on the wrong side of 30, most likely on downhill slope now or will be in a year or two. He is what he is. 93 OPS+ last year, career 101+. Keeping in mind that OPS+ is a measurement that includes everybody - even SS, 2B and C who don't hit like other positions - he is very much a below average hitter for a corner OF and may now be a below average hitter for any spot. He is very strong defensively in RF.  Yet for some reason it has ben said that he doesn't want to play CF even as Buxton's backup. ! don't know if that's true but I can't help but notice he almost never goes to CF. 

I can see an argument that the two are almost identical players with one better defensively and one better offensively. I can even see an argument that maybe Gordon's 2022 will be his high water mark and he'll never hit that way again. Still, it's hard to see an argument where the Twins' medium to long term benefit is served by playing Kepler every day while benching, demoting or trading Gordon.  Dingo so would be to sacrifice possible (likely?) growth/improvement for a hoped for slight current performance uptick in my view. We have too many LH hitting corner OFs. One or two need to go. My view is you keep Gordon first. Next, if you think Larnach is healthy, keep Larnach if you can find room. You keep both over Kepler.   

[RJA]

From analyses done by a number of analytics guys, including at the Athletic, it appears that limiting the shift is projected to give Kepler only a few more hits per year, that the problem is in his approach and not the shift.  Still, I am not sure that he has enough trade value to make him marketable.  It might be best to hang on to him.  The only trades I would make at this time would be for a frontline pitcher with 3 or more years of control.  I wouldn't take Lopez for 2, but some of the other Marlins guys might be attractive.  It would take a big package to get one of the Marlins young guys, so if we were to do that, we would be losing Arraez, Wallner or Larnach, and a couple of more pieces.  Young, talented starters trade at a huge premium.

[bap3141]

I'm operating under the premise that they use him to get MLB ready value or hold him. The Twins could create value if they use him as a second piece to land a starting pitcher.

His drop in homeruns could be approach, but I think the balls were different in 2019.