The Circumstances Don't Matter When it Comes to Carlos Correa

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins finally locked up Carlos Correa, though it took some of the most unprecedented circumstances in history. With Correa set to be a Twin for at least six years, should we care how we got to this point?

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

 

On more than one occasion this winter it appeared Carlos Correa was headed elsewhere. San Francisco, New York, etc. Both larger markets generally thought to be more desirable destinations offering more money, it’s easy to see how Correa was ready to sign onto both situations before fate brought him back to the Twins. Now that he’s here, does the path he took matter at all? Some people sure seem to think so, and have been raising several concerns now that Correa appears to be back in Minnesota.

“He didn’t want to come back to Minnesota”

Minnesota was by definition the third choice for Correa to land in, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t want to come back to Minnesota. No fan should expect anything less than a player to take the highest offer they’re given in free agency, especially when those offers come from premier destinations such as San Francisco and New York. Did he love it to the extent that he was willing to take less money to return? No. Why would anyone have expected otherwise? When the Twins eventually wound up with the best offer on the table, he was willing to take it. That should be plenty good enough!

“This is going to be like Lance Lynn all over again”

Many fans remember 2018 when Lance Lynn signed with the Twins following a disappointing offseason for the right hander. He didn’t get the money or destination he desired and despite the Twins being the one team to offer a competitive contract, he seemed to hold it against them. If anyone has these concerns about Carlos Correa, they likely don’t know much about Carlos Correa. It’s far more likely he’s on a warpath to leave 29 other teams kicking themselves for missing out on a healthy superstar shortstop.

“They only got him because of his physicals”

Correct. The stars aligned to allow not one, but two mega deals to fall through and open the door for the Twins. When the dust settled and all information was equal, the Twins still outbid 29 other teams, with the Mets offer reportedly coming up significantly short of Correa’s agreement with the Twins. The way we should probably think about this is as follows: “My favorite team just won the bidding for a star player. There’s risk involved, but it’s not my money!”

“This doesn’t do much but get us back to last year’s roster”

While the Twins aren’t going to be projected to win the Central immediately following the Correa signing, it gets them within striking distance, something that couldn’t have been said prior to the deal. The Twins are in a spot given their middling projections and poor division where every win added is extremely valuable. Last year by Fangraphs measures, Correa was worth around 4-5. Simply put, there may have been a path to a winner without Correa, but it was extremely narrow. With Correa filling shortstop and anchoring the lineup, variance and the good health we’ve all been talking about sets up the possibility of a rebound season for the Twins. Also consider the fact that there could be multiple additions still on their way.

“What if Correa’s leg is a legitimate problem?”

Let’s be clear, nothing has changed with Correa’s physical condition since the Twins offered 10 years, $285m to Correa earlier this winter. It’s also likely nothing has changed since he was actually playing for the Twins. There’s risk with any free agent signing, or trade as we saw last season. The Twins have made a reputation out of chasing low risk, one year deals in recent years and let’s be perfectly honest, it has not gone well. They appeared to be saving money for a longer term deal if the opportunity arose, and it’s hard to imagine a better opportunity than the one that was presented to them to get Correa. It was an uncomfortable, high risk deal that quite frankly they’ve been overdue for. It’s also worth considering that at only 6 years, $200m guaranteed, it’s not nearly as uncomfortable or high risk as it could have been. Would you rather gamble on Correa remaining a star talent for 6 years with a plate in his leg that hasn’t held him back in nearly a decade, or someone like Trea Turner remaining a star player for the next 11? Turner’s deal is almost certain to go poorly in the next 11 years. The Twins are only gambling on 6 with Correa.

To be fair, many of these questions have to be asked, and some of them were in some fashion during the introductory press conference. All parties were likely expecting questions regarding the awkwardness of this outcome, but none seem particularly perturbed about the situation moving forward. The fact of the matter is this: Twins fans should have been hoping that Correa would wind up back in Minnesota this winter by any means necessary. It certainly wasn’t a straightforward path but the end result is exactly what we dreamed of. The circumstances are irrelevant. Carlos Correa is a Minnesota Twin. Possibly for the rest of his career. Just try to enjoy it.

 

 

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[talkintwins]

Well-said. "Just try to enjoy it."

[Peter Labuza]

Re the Fangraphs projections and building more or less the same roster, I think that is something that (a) could still be improved within the next six weeks and (b) I'll take the upside on. I think last year was more about "we put together a bit of a jigsaw puzze of a team let's see if it works" and this year is "there are actually a lot of great pieces here and I think it could work out, though the reason the projections are low is because of the unknowns like Maeda and Mahle among others." 

[bloomwcjkl]

If he wants to be here and can play 140-150 games per season, then it doesn't matter "how".

Piranha's 3.0 (or is it 2.0?) 

[The_Phantom]

Anyone worried about how he got here, or what anyone said along the way (whether “doomers” or “super homers”) is ridiculous. He was chasing the most money, the twins didn’t offer it, but they stayed in the hunt enough to have the competitive offer when all the pieces fell. Be glad the twins made a solid move in the right direction.

 
now if they’d only make a real attempt to fix the bullpen 

[sun]

Much to his credit CC chose the Twins instead of the Astros last year. I don't think that he ever looked back as much as he just did by returning to the Twins. He's connected to the team and it shows when he agreed to keep the lines of communication open. He didn't burn any bridges with the Twins like he did with the Astros. He's a class act. His teammates show real affection for him unlike some of the Astros like Alex Bregman. CC clearly wanted to distance himself from the Astros organization. IMO for CC it's not only about the money. He could have held out longer and negotiated with more teams. But he's happy with his $33.33 mil and doesn't blame the Twins for the deals gone bad, so we shouldn't blame him for testing the waters, it was the natural thing to do.

[jmlease1]

It absolutely doesn't matter how we got here, only that we made it. We weren't Correa's first choice last season either; he was aiming for a big, long-term deal (and likely in a big market). He didn't treat us like a consolation prize last season and was a great player for us.

He's here. He's our guy now. That's all that matters. 

I hope he crushes it, stays healthy, wins an MVP and leads us to a title and plays for us for the full 10. I hope he's legend--wait for it--dary. I hope he plays so well that he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer and goes in wearing a Twins cap.

Looking forward to it. Loved watching him play this year. Thrilled he's back, and I don't care how weird it got in getting him. It just doesn't matter. We got a great player, and I think he's going to play great for us.

[tony&rodney]

I'm a Twins fan and I like baseball, especially when it is played correctly. Playing the game right takes, talent, discipline, fundamentals, and focus. Correa has it all. Now we wish him good health and success leading the Twins forward. The litany of hard luck and injuries that cascaded across the 2022 season should not be an issue in 2023. Welcome back Carlos and good luck.

[dxpavelka]

The claim that we merely have "the same roster" with Correa on board overlooks the fact that without Correa we're not even close to  the same.  Probably a half dozen fewer wins which puts us at 90 losses.  Nobody wants to see that.

[twinstalker]

But the bases are bigger, and Carlos isn't going to steal any of them.

You missed that one.

I'm hesitantly happy the Twins got him.  I wasn't a big fan of the last contract due to it not really solving anything.  It just gave us Correa for a year and put the team/payroll at great risk.  Now we're risking the same $$$ for multiple years, but it feels like we've probably solved one of the many issues with the team.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Nice take, agreed that the Twins somehow landed the #1 shortstop in the game for ages 28-33 seasons and the (long suffering) Minnesota fans need to enjoy it. For a decent price with control at the end of the contract. Enjoy the ride in 2023 with Correa leading the charge, enjoy superstars Correa and Buxton on the field together, enjoy the Correa Hall of Fame introduction ceremony as a Twin in 20 years, enjoy it all.   

[Trov]

I think all the fans that attacked the FO for not putting up the money to sign CC when he agree to SF or Mets, should at least admit a little bit the FO had a clue on what they were doing.  I say this because we signed him for close to but actually less than what we first offered.  We knew about the ankle and were not willing to take on any more risk than 10 years.  Both SF and Mets balked at the risk.  

Did the FO know this was going to happen, most likely not, but they also knew what they would be willing to do.  They kept in contact and in the end were willing to offer more guaranteed money than any other team.  The contract is actually pretty friendly for the Twins.  If CC regresses after year 4 to 6, then can make sure he does not get the PA buy benching him, then cut loose the last 4 years.  If CC is playing at elite level still, then we keep brining him back for up to 4 years.  The fact each year is an option year is amazing for the Twins.  I could not have thought of a better offer. 

[rv78]

I find it interesting that his considered worth is another 4-5 wins. Let's all remember that last year he didn't lead the Twins in any offensive catagory. He didn't start hitting well until the last month or 6 weeks of the season when the Twins were pretty much out of the divisional race. I know 2023 and beyond is NOT 2022 and you cannot expect the future to be the same as the past but with all of the hoopla that he's a superstar I just don't see it. His career averages over his 8 year career are 111 games per season, 116 Hits, 19 HRs, 69RBI's, with a .279 BA. I may have higher expectations for someone to be considered a superstar than others but I don't consider those numbers to be of superstar value. He's only played a full season 3 times in his 8 year career. He's only hit above .300 once, never drove in 100 runs, never come close to 200 hits, only hit more than 25 HR once. He's missed a lot of games due to injury which does skew the numbers average wise but he doesn't get less money when he's hurt so that only makes his cost when he's hurt even higher. He's a slightly above average player playing a tough defense position. Will the Twins win a World Series because of Correa, No, It will take other players to become real superstars to carry the team. IMO the Twins over-paid.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I think all the fans that attacked the FO for not putting up the money to sign CC when he agree to SF or Mets, should at least admit a little bit the FO had a clue on what they were doing.  I say this because we signed him for close to but actually less than what we first offered.  We knew about the ankle and were not willing to take on any more risk than 10 years.  Both SF and Mets balked at the risk.  

Did the FO know this was going to happen, most likely not, but they also knew what they would be willing to do.  They kept in contact and in the end were willing to offer more guaranteed money than any other team.  The contract is actually pretty friendly for the Twins.  If CC regresses after year 4 to 6, then can make sure he does not get the PA buy benching him, then cut loose the last 4 years.  If CC is playing at elite level still, then we keep brining him back for up to 4 years.  The fact each year is an option year is amazing for the Twins.  I could not have thought of a better offer. 

I agree with your take.  The FO knew how much risk they were willing to absorb, and it worked out for them in the end.

But the FO will not get any credit at this point, it will be viewed as luck, which is a shame.

When you dig into then minutia of this contract, Correa really did not get anything he was hoping for.  The Twins are paying a premium for his "best" years, and really only have to pay further if he continues to be a viable starter after that.  I really don't understand how anybody can be upset with this contract.

This isn't a Lance Lynn situation.  Correa could have probably gotten a similar contract from other clubs.  This was one of the places he wanted to be, and ultimately chose to sign here.

Think about that for a minute.... one of the best players in baseball chose to come to Minnesota.  How can you not be optimistic about that?

For the rest of you... well... haters gotta hate.

[rv78]

"Think about that for a minute.... one of the best players in baseball chose to come to Minnesota."

I think you need to look at the numbers over his 8 year career and then ask yourself if he really is one of the best players in baseball. Yes he plays one of the most demanding positions and plays it well. But offensively he is NOT among the best players in baseball. Not even close. He is slightly above average. 4 years of his 8 year career have been limited by injuries. During his upcoming 6 year contract it is very possible if not even probable that he will only play a full season in 3 or 4 of those years. With the money he cost, I hope I'm wrong and he does become a superstar because he hasn't shown it offensively based on his past performance that he is. 

[wsnydes]

I couldn't really care less about the circumstances of how he got here.  Sometimes it pays to be more lucky than good.  This is one of those times.  And I'm completely happy with that aspect.  I just know that I plan on enjoying his presence for the long term and I'm perfectly happy with that!  And that's really all that matters.

[h2oface]

Great spin, @Cody Pirkl. 

[DocBauer]

Correa had a short list of teams he wanted to play for, and for the rest of his career. The Twins were on that list. He was so engaged in his first season with the Twins that he not only became an immediate leader and friend to the clubhouse, he actually reviewed the milb talent coming up. He's been engaged on social media with many of his Twins teammates. 

The initial Giants offer was only $20-25M more than the Twins, but over 12-13yrs. Had they stuck to that, he might have remained a Twin from day 1. The initial Mets offer was very close to the initial Twins offer, but also longer years. Each high market team trying to play a long game to avoid luxury tax as much as possible.

I could never blame Correa for jumping at a HUGE deal in a market that seemed to explode over night and look to the Giants. Or the Mets, who's deal I never quite understood  due to a move to 3B, the length and lower AAV. But looked what happened when both teams got cold feet while playing the long term manipulation game?

The Twins are NOT a consolation prize for Correa. They ended up with not only the biggest payout, but the highest potential payout without all the weird manipulations and clauses. And they were/are one of the teams on his short list he wanted to finish his career with.

Think about my last comment. A team he wants to finish his career with. No opt outs. No trade clause. Six guaranteed years and 4 team option years, with declining salaries, and some fairly easy player clauses that still provide Twins control, ultimately. 

He's here for the long haul. Yes, he wanted $. But he wanted a team to call HOME for the rest of his career. And he found it with the Twins.

It might have taken a bizarre route to get HOME, but the Twins never played games. They were open from day one and got a great deal done for both sides, WITHOUT Correa needing or wanting an opt out, which was part of their original offer.

The Twins were the 3rd and final team to make this all happen. But we weren't some 3rd runner up. We were the right fit at the end of the day.

 

[Riverbrian]

The Giants offered 13/350 and backed away from that - This means that the Giants DID NOT offer 13/350

The Mets offered 12/315 and backed away from that - This means that the Mets DID NOT offer 12/315.

It is quite possible that the "Circumstances" are this: When it comes to REAL offers. Carlos Correa signed with the Twins. 

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

On 1/12/2023 at 8:57 AM, rv78 said:

 He didn't start hitting well until the last month or 6 weeks of the season when the Twins were pretty much out of the divisional race. 

I believe it's reasonable that the Twins were still in the divisional race through the final game against Cleveland on September 19. The Guardians won 11-4 to move 7 games ahead of the Twins in the standings, effectively ending the Twins season. Correa went 2 for 3, ending the day with a .285 average and .829 OPS. His season ending was a .291 average and .834 OPS. In the 15 remaining games after September 19, Correa had 1 HR, 4 doubles, and 6 RBI - not exactly padding those stats during garbage time as suggested. FYI, the Twins started that 5 game Cleveland series on September 16 behind Cleveland in the standings by 4 games, so I'm not sure how you could have counted the Twins out of the race before then.  

[h2oface]

On 1/13/2023 at 5:19 AM, Riverbrian said:

The Giants offered 13/350 and backed away from that - This means that the Giants DID NOT offer 13/350

The Mets offered 12/315 and backed away from that - This means that the Mets DID NOT offer 12/315.

It is quite possible that the "Circumstances" are this: When it comes to REAL offers. Carlos Correa signed with the Twins. 

 

Since when are offers with contingencies not real offers? Most people buy houses with real offers that have at least one contingency - the financing contingency. And the majority also have a home inspection, and then find items that get negotiated before closing. If they don't get financing, or find something that can't get worked out in the home inspection, and the agreed upon contingencies can't be met, it was still a REAL offer.

So were the Giants and Mets offers. Legal and binding, if all contingencies had been met.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

Since when are offers with contingencies not real offers? Most people buy houses with real offers that have at least one contingency - the financing contingency. And the majority also have a home inspection, and then find items that get negotiated before closing. If they don't get financing, or find something that can't get worked out in the home inspection, and the agreed upon contingencies can't be met, it was still a REAL offer.

So were the Giants and Mets offers. Legal and binding, if all contingencies had been met.

So you've found a contingency with my post. 

My post is still real. 

[USAFChief]

On 1/13/2023 at 6:19 AM, Riverbrian said:

The Giants offered 13/350 and backed away from that - This means that the Giants DID NOT offer 13/350

The Mets offered 12/315 and backed away from that - This means that the Mets DID NOT offer 12/315.

It is quite possible that the "Circumstances" are this: When it comes to REAL offers. Carlos Correa signed with the Twins. 

 

According to reports, the Twins offered 10/$285 and backed away from that. Does this mean the Twins DID NOT offer 10/$285?

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

According to reports, the Twins offered 10/$285 and backed away from that. Does this mean the Twins DID NOT offer 10/$285?

I assume that Correa would have taken that over what he signed for.

So No They did not.