How Does Carlos Correa's Signing Impact the Twins' 2023 Opening Day Roster?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota shocked the baseball world and signed Carlos Correa to a long-term deal. So, what does that mean for the team's projected Opening Day roster?

Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. 

Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers
Entering the offseason, Ryan Jeffers was the lone catcher on the team's 40-man roster. Adding Christian Vazquez helps bolster the organization's catching depth. Last winter, the Twins traded Mitch Garver to allow Ryan Jeffers to become the primary catcher. However, many teams utilize a multi-catcher approach to keep players healthy and help their offensive production. Minnesota also signed veteran catcher Tony Wolters to a minor league deal, but he likely won't make the Opening Day roster. The Twins will need Walters during the season, and he has caught over 2800 innings at the big-league level. 

Infielders (6): Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco 
Adding Correa to this group changes the entire look of the infield. Farmer can now shift to a utility role and play all over the diamond. He was penciled in as the team's starting shortstop until Royce Lewis returned from his ACL injury. Minnesota is handing Miranda the starting third base job after the team traded Gio Urshela to the Angels. All the projected infielders can be used at multiple defensive positions, which will help Rocco Baldelli create the best line-ups on any given day. Minnesota was in the driver's seat for the AL Central last season before injuries ravaged the roster. Correa's return puts the Twins back in the conversation as a playoff team in 2023 and beyond. 

The depth here comes from the likes of Royce Lewis, when he returns (hopefully in June or July), who can play all over the diamond. Austin Martin can get whatever time he needs in St. Paul. The team can be patient with Brooks Lee rather than push him up too quickly. 

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon**, Max Kepler
Correa's signing also pushes other players off the 26-man roster. In my initial roster projection, Trevor Larnach was on the bubble, and now he will be in St. Paul's outfield with Matt Wallner. Both players will get playing time in 2023, but there needs to be room to keep them on the Opening Day roster. Kyle Garlick is also an interesting player because there might be other right-handed free-agent upgrades. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler fill similar roles for the Twins, so the Twins will likely trade Kepler, allowing them to carry a right-handed bench bat. Nick Gordon is out of minor-league options so the Twins will keep him based on his breakout performance in 2022. 

Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober
On paper, this starting five is a group that can win the AL Central, but there are health concerns with multiple pitchers on the roster. Mahle struggled with shoulder issues after the Twins acquired him, Maeda is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Ober dealt with various injuries last season. The Twins have starting pitching depth on the 40-man roster, with Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ready to contribute at the big-league level. Jordan Balazovic is also an interesting name to consider if he is healthy to start the year. Minnesota has also been rumored to be interested in some of the remaining veteran free agents, but the club may want to rely on its pitching pipeline. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill**
Minnesota hopes Lopez can return to his previous form and combine with Duran to be a dominant back-end duo. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Jax could be a breakout reliever and fill a fireman role that Tyler Duffey had previously occupied. Pagan continues to be a question mark, but the Twins offered him arbitration, so they hope his performance improves in 2023. The Twins have also shown a tendency to move relievers up and down from Triple-A, a trend likely to continue next year. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez and Cole Sands.      

What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Where do the Twins rank compared to other AL Central squads? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Peter]

Our team looks pretty good especially after getting cc back. Same with our pitching-as always health is always a concern as well pitching. The more I see our team the more I like it. Screw the prognosticators we have team that will be better then last year and hopefully win our division/break 18  game playoff losing streak!!! I’m pumped up for season to start!!’nlets gooo twins!!!

[CRF]

Barring injuries, I can see this team winning the central. If the pitchers start going down with owies, then all bets are off. Hopefully, we make a few more deals. I'd love to see Pagan gone, and probably Kep too. Can't wait till the season starts!

[mac098]

This team looks like it is starting to get ready to take the next step. We have a good mix of young players and veteran players that will be playing together. Glad to see C4 back as he can be a huge difference make to a lot of our younger players. Especially with his knowledge, experience, and overall atmosphere. 

I think this is the year some of our younger player show what they've got. I believe Miranda will break out of his shell, meaning we'll see 20+ homers this year with serviceable defense. A healthy Polanco would make a huge difference at the plate and in the field. If AK can stay healthy, 1B is locked down with above avg defense and a solid bat. 

Now the OF is a still a mystery. We know Gallo can play elite defense along with Kepler, but the issue is with their bats. If Gallo can produce and avg of .220-.240, I'll be happy. With Kepler, I would like to see somewhere around .250 and I'll accept it, as long as he can put a few more balls into the bleachers. With Buck, we need him to stay healthy for 130-145 games. He is a literal game changer out there in both the field and the plate. If we can get a .275 avg out of him, I'll be pleased. 

The biggest question mark is the starting rotation and potential use of the BP. We need the starters to snag/grab/own 6 innings of QUALITY baseball. I know Quality Starts (QS) are an underrated stat, but having those really alleviates a lot of pressure of the hitters and BP to have to perform later in the game.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[William K Johnson]

Jose Miranda cannot play third base.    Farmer slides there.

[roger]

I believe your mention of Tony Wolters is the first comment TD has about his recent signing.  Although not a major impact, I view getting a guy with five or six years of big league experience (Rockies) on a Minor League deal was a must.  Now that is done and it is encouraging that he is only 30 years old.

It is going to be interesting to see who is removed from the 40-man when Correa signs his contract, hopefully, today or tomorrow.  When I look at it there isn't an obvious choice.  Garlick is most likely if it isn't a pitcher.  Also can't see Larnach starting the season at St. Paul.  The kid hit too well last year prior to his injury.  If he does start at Target Field, going to have to be some move, probably a trade.

Also see that you failed to mention Josh Winder in either the rotation or bullpen.  Kid was with the Twins all of last year, when healthy.  Could be ideal arm for that long relief role.  Doubt he will go back to St. Paul, although anything is possible.

[tony&rodney]

All Julien has done in the last two years is hit for average, get on base at a high rate, steal bases, and hit for extra bases. One wonders what would happen if Julien rips the cover off the ball in Spring Training. DH?

[Nashvilletwin]

Great development that Correa fell back into our laps.  This FO will now be all in on making their Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy work. So that means your roster projection is in the ballpark. But it means many young players still requiring development will not get the innings or ABs they need barring injury. Wallner, Larnach, Martin (he’s an outfielder now), Celestino and maybe Kiriloff will be sacrificed for one more year on the Joey Gallo and possibly Max Kepler altars. Same with Julien, Lewis and possibly Lee on the Farmer and Polanco (here’s hoping he has a great bounce back year) altars. Probably we will see a trade or two to bolster/injury hedge our SPs.

Its the right strategy in the short term - the Central could be had. But make no mistake, it will come at a cost for ‘24 when it’s quite possible that many, if not all, of Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Farmer, Gallo, Kepler and Polanco are gone.  

[DJL44]

Unless they are brain dead they will acquire two pitchers for the roster to take Canterino and Paddack's spots.

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Jose Miranda cannot play third base.    Farmer slides there.

Miranda is going to be given every opportunity to play 3B, he's played is acceptably in the minors and wasn't dreadful so far in MLB. There's basically no way Farmer starts at 3B unless Miranda becomes unplayable there and so far he's not.

Garlick almost has to slip on to the roster somewhere (replace Celestino; between Gordon, Gallo, and Kepler there's enough options when Buxton gets a rest and Celestino can come up if Buxton goes to the IL) right now. We still need his RH bat availability. Gordon is out of options I think and played well enough last season that he has to make the Opening Day roster or be traded.

[Doctor Gast]

Correa signing has plugged the black hole at 2B,3B & SS. Now we can have Farmer to cover any hiccups there.

Spring training will be very interesting for the OF. My eyes are on Larnach & Kiriloff to see how they've recovered. I also see Celestino start out at AAA.

Correa signing will spark needed trades so the this roster could be very different.

[mnfireman]

Barring any trades, I feel Gordon makes the roster over Celestino; better MLB results, more positional flexibility. At this point I would have Larnach and Wallner ahead of Celestino also, but Celestino is a RH bat and plays CF. I would also hope that they are stretching Duran out to be a starter and compete with/compliment Maeda, maybe he becomes the next Corbin Burnes or Chris Sale (the good years). If he fails, he's a helluva fall back option as closer.

However, I think some combination of Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, Polanaco Arraez, Miranda, Celestino and possibly Gray and Thielbar will be traded before ST.

[EGFTShaw]

Enjoyed this article.  Many valid points offered up already.

1) we have options.  C4 signing brings in a lot of possibilities.
2) Royce/Lee do not have to become SSs and if they do C4 can slide to 3rd.
3) Pagan - I would like to see if they can fix him with a full spring training. Lopez too.
4) I would like to see the possible signing of Fulmer and Andrew Chaffin for the BP
5) With the young guns coming up, trading some veterans Polanco/Kepler for example are options.
6) Triple sacrifices to the Baseball gods that AK and Buxton are healthy for a full year.
7) I also hope that pitching stays healthy, no soft tissue issues, and that one of the staff takes the next step.  Maeda is back to 2020 form or Ryan takes the next step forward or Mahle evolves into what everyone has expected.

Next offseason is going to be VERY interesting.

[PatPfund]

Good preview, though as others have noted, Josh Winder is on the 40-man, and should (IMO) be on the 26-man roster ahead of Megill and Pagan to name a couple (Moran as well if he has control issues again). If Rocco ever figures out how to use a long RP, he'd also be my first pick to fill an open rotation spot.

Celestino's bat and baseball IQ are not MLB-ready. Again as noted in the comments, Gallo and/or Kepler can play CF, so Celestino should start in St Paul. In all honesty, if I were the Twins, Celestino and Farmer would be pieces to shop with now, or in-season (maybe they can pry away a useful arm from Boston; they need a SS and OF depth).

[MMMordabito]

Kyle Garlick won't be on it.

[RJA]

Too many outfielders and infielders so there will be a trade or trades. I suspect Kepler is gone, and maybe an infielder. 

[nicksaviking]

The Twins best bullpen moves the last two years haven't been the high profile trades, they've have been turning the fringy minor league starters into reliable relievers.

I'd give Winder, Henriquez and Sands, and maybe even Varland, SWR and Balazovic the first looks at earning a bullpen spot. I'd be more interested in them than Megill, Moran and Pagan.

[MMMordabito]

"which will help Rocco Baldelli create the best line-ups on any given day"

[harve143]

On paper it definitely looks like a group of pitchers that can win the division if they are healthy. I’m still hoping a trade for a starter and a move for some bullpen depth is in the works. As much as I’d hate it, Arraez value is high and can be a nice piece to add pitching depth. Especially when Lewis comes back and C4 can move to third. 

[Joey Self]

I'm not sure why Gordon was listed as being "on the bubble" when below that, you told us he had no options.  He's either on the 26 man roster or he's traded.   No bubble involved when the team can't send him down. 

JcS

 

[chpettit19]

Garlick was designated to make room for Correa. So less likely to be on the 26 man to start the year now.

[Beast]

The roster on paper looks great, but a lot of things needs to break right in order to be successful:

-Buxton needs to stay healthy

-Arraez needs to stay healthy

-Alex K needs to stay healthy and return to his once promising form.

-Tyler Mahle needs to stay healthy.

-Ober needs to stay healthy (if not, Varland/Paddack need to be good).

-Kenta Maeda needs to return to pre-injury form.

-Jorge Polanco needs to stay healthy

-Duran needs to remain a dominant bullpen arm

-Pagan needs to stay out of high leverage roles

-Lopez needs to figure things out and return to pre-trade form.

-Jax needs to take another step

-Kepler, if on the team, needs to see this theory of the shift ban helping him come to fruition.

-Joey Gallo needs to be better than last year and provide some power numbers

If all of those things happen, we win some playoff games and may even be a World Series contender.

All of those things won’t happen.  If none of them happen, we stink.  If some of them happen, somewhere in the middle.

Thats my main gripe with this FO.  Things are currently constructed in a way that requires all of these hypotheticals and what-ifs to take place.  A lot of them aren’t real likely to happen (Buxton being healthy, Alex K. returning to form, Maeda returning to firm, shift change reinventing Kepler, Gallo performing, Duran maintaining a ridiculous level of performance, Lopez returning to form).  Take a bunch of things that aren’t likely to happen individually and combine them…..we’re not looking at great odds.

I’m excited for what could happen.  I think we’re fairly likely to start the year hot and fizzle out a bit as everyone breaks down again.  Don’t think it’ll be as pronounced and disgusting.  But, we’re much more likely to see a repeat of last year than make the ALCS, the way things sit today.  That’s my threshold for a successful year.  Not interested in regular season wins or division titles in in an awful division at this point.

 

[davidborton]

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Jose Miranda cannot play third base.    Farmer slides there.

Stats confirm your assessment. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mirand004jos#all_standard_fielding

[davidborton]

53 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

"which will help Rocco Baldelli create the best line-ups on any given day"

Agree. There is no rhyme or reason to his endless lineups. Or better expressed, my algorithms can't discern them.

[Kipp35]

Go sign Wacha and bring back Fulmer...

[D.C Twins]

I'm most concerned about Mahle. The FO is clearly counting on him being a key part to the starting rotation and 2023 success.

Shoulder issues can be VERY problematic, frustrating and difficult to fix over the long term. 

In some ways, the lack of a diagnosis at the end of last season is even more concerning. For example thoracic outlet syndrome would not necessarily be picked up on MRI

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins best bullpen moves the last two years haven't been the high profile trades, they've have been turning the fringy minor league starters into reliable relievers.

I'd give Winder, Henriquez and Sands, and maybe even Varland, SWR and Balazovic the first looks at earning a bullpen spot. I'd be more interested in them than Megill, Moran and Pagan.

Well, it definitely hasn't been trades but Thielbar is the reliever who's accumulated the most WAR over the past two years and he was a career reliever coming back from near retirement.

Moran was also excellent last year, so I'd like to see him start the year as a middle relief guy and have a chance to move up in the heirarchy if he can continue to pitch well and keep the walks under control.

Megill I'm less convinced of but he's a pretty prototypical back of the bullpen guy with potential to put it all together and be better.

I am fully on the "Pagan is just not as good as the FO believes he is" team, but we seem to be stuck with him for the time being so hopefully he either proves me wrong or they are willing to keep him at the bottom of the bullpen heirarchy and ditch him if he still can't put it together.

Varland and SWR so far haven't shown any signs that they can't be starters, so I'd definitely keep them in that role for now, starting the season in AAA.  They will certainly be needed in the majors before too long.

Winder is the most interesting case to me.  They need to decide whether he has any future as a starter, and if he still does then getting stretched out at AAA and being ready to step into the rotation when needed still seems like a fine plan.  If they decide that he will be a reliever then he'd probably be the first one I'd want to try to work into the MLB bullpen.

Henriquez and Balazovic could probably still both use some time proving themselves in AAA.

On paper, the bullpen looks like it could be good but I'd probably try to add one more reliable looking arm.  Fullmer would be fine.  I think Chafin would be great as I think another lefty would probably be better than a righty, but I suspect the FO will not like his multi-year price.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

The roster on paper looks great, but a lot of things needs to break right in order to be successful:

-Buxton needs to stay healthy

-Arraez needs to stay healthy

-Alex K needs to stay healthy and return to his once promising form.

-Tyler Mahle needs to stay healthy.

-Ober needs to stay healthy (if not, Varland/Paddack need to be good).

-Kenta Maeda needs to return to pre-injury form.

-Jorge Polanco needs to stay healthy

-

 

Safe to say, Health is a top priority... ?

But I think we are deeper than previously.  Last year we had ridiculously bad luck when it came to injuries.

You are spot on when saying a lot of the potential is dependent on returning to health and it is understandable to be gun shy when your team resembled a M*A*S*H unit. 

Pitching will be deeper.  The position players are deeper.  The younger guys got some experience, and they should get more this year.

Let's sacrifice some Mascots to ensure a healthy year...not the TC Bear, but Philly Fanatic, the Presidents that run at Nats Park, etc...

[puckstopper1]

Correa certainly strengthens the positional lineup.  It is good to have guys competing for playing time - assuming they are all healthy - which is a BIG if.

The pitching staff still has WAAAAAAAAYYYYY too many holes with the injury history to the starters to the inconsistency of the BP (except Duran).  Relying on Lopez to be the main set-up guy (keep in mind he was outstanding for exactly 1/2 of a season and not very good for the other 6 /12 seasons of his big league career) is akin to relying on Pagan in the same role.  

[jimbo92107]

4 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Jose Miranda cannot play third base.    Farmer slides there.

If Miranda has been working out over the winter at 3B under Corea's wing, then he might be surprisingly good at third.