What to Make of Carlos Correa's Ankle Issue

[awmonahan]

I know we have a new training staff. Here's hoping we amp up the investment in them, considering our the MO is to spend on players with injury risk. It's the humane approach, but will also help the team moving forward. 

[rwilfong86]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean everything you're saying makes total sense. But then why wouldn't the Mets, who care not about money and clearly wanted him very badly, come within even $40M of the Twins' guaranteed offer? After another adamant big spender backed away? That's what I'm struggling to connect. 

The Twins medical staff was aware of it last year and were able to convince ownership that it wasn't as big of an issue as it was made out to be since he has never had an issue with it, and ultimately I think for teams like the Mets and Giants the risk didn't outweigh the reward or they were given advice to lowball thinking no one else would come close and the Twins beat their lowball offer.

[Fatbat]

9 hours ago, Twodogs said:

It's cool that the Twins went all in and got him, he will definitely help in the here and now.  I have a couple of concerns.  Mainly, the Twins have a bunch of middle infield prospects who are now basically blocked.  Lewis, Lee, Martin, etc .....  So these guys may rot in the system because there might not be any opportunities for them. Second, he should be a huge asset for the Twins, say 3 - 4 years down the road the Twins are in last place and put him and a bunch of other guys up for trade at the trade deadline.  I'm assuming that the Twins would get lowballed because of all of this nonsense.  So I think he won't have big trade value even though he's valuable.  

He has a full no trade clause so unless it is waved to a team Carlos wants to go to, he will be a twin! The young guys are great athletes and can pencil into other positions so he is actually only taking up one position but really not blocking anyone else. Farmer will be gone in 2024. Kepler also? We now have a very deep team for 2023! All the young kids (and Buck) need to stay healthy so we can compete in sept/oct.  Its also going to make watching the saints game better. They get a year of Celestino, Lee, Martin, Wallner and co. 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

The Twins medical staff was aware of it last year and were able to convince ownership that it wasn't as big of an issue as it was made out to be since he has never had an issue with it, and ultimately I think for teams like the Mets and Giants the risk didn't outweigh the reward or they were given advice to lowball thinking no one else would come close and the Twins beat their lowball offer.

I think the issue with the ankle has a lot more to do with how the Giants & Mets were planning to stretch the cost of this contract over longer periods of time. They probably weren't any more worried about it in the short term than anyone, but had more serious questions about whether this would keep him off the field consistently when he turned 36-38. It's one thing to look at 1-2 years or dead money (although I think these teams that are doing these 11-14 year deals are convincing themselves that they'll beat the odds and have productive players into their 40's) and another to be thinking they're looking at 3-4 years or dead money. Because you can't count on a player to retire and forfeit the last years of a deal, especially when the injury is something chronic and there are ways to get yourself back on the field.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm ecstatic about bringing back Correa, I'm a big fan of his. Also very relieved that we have filled that big chasm in the INF, that I was very concerned about how they were going about to fill it. 

My concern is FO's lack of concern over certain medical reports. If they really want someone they tend to ignore them; Dwyer, Paddack & Mahle are examples. Paddack was rejected by NYM because of his medicals. But MN ignored them.

 Correa has failed both SF & NYM physicals. Could there be something new to indicate that there is a problem that wasn't obvious before? If I had to trust between NYM doctors to MN doctors at this point I'd have to trust the NYM doctors.

I hope to God that Correa will play 6 yrs of All-Star SS for MN & help us win at least a post season game. Correa saved Flavine's butt last off season, is he betting that he'll do the the same this season w/o really checking his health? I think that'd be very irresponsible. They need to check very closely if that ankle could change to be a threat to Correa's lasting playing time. Hope doesn't cut it.

[Karbo]

16 hours ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I suspect he broke a screw or loosened the hardware on that awkward slide last season. This would explain why he passed his physical when the Twins signed him last year, and why he can’t pass a physical this year—this would be a new x-ray finding. He doesn’t have any ongoing symptoms or limitations currently, so there is no indication for an operation to remove the hardware and introduce surgical risk at this time, but there is concern for future instability and need for operative management.  

Alternatively, this was a known concern last year, and why he settled for the contract that he did.

He has an exit physical at the end of last season. I would think they would have spotted a problem like a broken screw at that time. IMHO the more likely thing would be they see arthritis forming, which can be slowed by meds.

[Original_JB]

It's a calculated risk, no different than buying a car with a "new" transmission or a discounted price on an open box, "refurbished" big screen TV at CostCo.  "Should" be OK, and probably will, but until you reach a certain time with it, you'll always have that little worry about things going wrong. So, I guess we'll have to wait and see how it shakes out. That said, after the "Dior" comment, Carlos Correa will forever be "CostCo" to me.  Heck, it even sounds good as a cheer, "Let's Go, CostCo, cha cha cha" 

[HokieRif]

So I was originally excited about this announcement, particularly the part where the Twins didn't kneecap their spending ability for the long haul.  After all, he's relatively young and the Twins should know better than any team at this point what the true nature of his ankle is.  Then I remembered that this is the same medical staff that couldn't keep anyone healthy this year, and has taken 4+ years to figure out how to keep Buxton on the field for more than 81 games.  I still like the deal and I think this will work out well for both parties.  I just dropped in to say that anyone claiming the Twins staff knows this ankle better than any one - I call BS.

[Whitey333]

Very good signing.  The Twins however will need more than Correa to make them contenders.  The pitching depth some fans rave about is riddled with question marks, injuries, and inexperience.  Here's hoping the Twins strengthen their roster.  Correa can't do it alone.  Twins are taking a huge risk in Correa due to his injury.  Let's hope Carlos lives up to the challenge and out performs his contract.  Otherwise the risk will rightfully shift to this glorious FO and their future employment.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

He has an exit physical at the end of last season. I would think they would have spotted a problem like a broken screw at that time. IMHO the more likely thing would be they see arthritis forming, which can be slowed by meds.

I don’t think they would x-ray something that wasn’t causing pain during an exit physical, so broken hardware wouldn’t be diagnosed until he had extensive review before signing a new contract.

[21bdp21]

17 hours ago, by jiminy said:

I LOVE that he wants to avoid unnecessary injuries!  Maybe some of that prudence will rub off on Buxton.  That could be worth the cost of his contract alone!  And I don't think his caution about stealing bases necessarily reflects concern about his ankle plate.  The issues he mentioned -- hard tags, hand injuries, and twisting ankles -- are genuine risks in and of themselves.  I am always especially appalled to see people slide in hands-first.  I remember Cuddyer tearing up his hand that way, just when he was on a tear.  It's so easy to hyperextend your thumb or get stomped by spikes.  Buxton's speed is too good a weapon to shut down completely, but I hate seeing him slide head first, especially the way he dives so hard.  But even sliding feet first, he injured his knee in 2022 and it lingered for months.  I don't think Correa is being a worrywart, or revealing some unique hidden fragility, I think he is just being smart.  I hope his vaunted leadership applies here, too!

It wasn't a steel but remember Morneau's concussion was an impact at 2nd base.

[Finlander]

23 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Very good signing.  The Twins however will need more than Correa to make them contenders.  The pitching depth some fans rave about is riddled with question marks, injuries, and inexperience.  Here's hoping the Twins strengthen their roster.  Correa can't do it alone.  Twins are taking a huge risk in Correa due to his injury.  Let's hope Carlos lives up to the challenge and out performs his contract.  Otherwise the risk will rightfully shift to this glorious FO and their future employment.

Pitchers should be more interested in coming to MN now. Adding Correa and Vasquez to the "up-the-middle" field lineup should appeal to FA pitchers considering Twins offers. Build it, and they will come. A pitcher on another team with a no-trade clause, such as Sale, may now be a little more inclined to waive it for MN. (Boston looks like they have some problems up the middle btw...)

I love this deal and how it was structured to be very affordable at the back end. Correa and Buxton look like they have a true bond, and it was also good to see Correa take interest in Miranda. I'm guessing that CC's presence will discourage MN from including Miranda in any trade offers.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great article Nick about an amazing saga in Twins' history.

[beckmt]

Remember we still need pitching, so one or two of the outfielders/infielders will not be here come spring training.  They are probably not trading Lewis or Lee unless the deal is a blockbuster, but Martin could be in play along with Kepler and Polanco and Julien to move for a starter or reliever (check out Miami they have an excess). 

[twinstalker]

19 hours ago, adjacent said:

The issue of the ankle is one that there is lots of talk, lots of information spread, but very little relevant information known (as it should be, because of HIPAA). So, the Twins have the information and decided to go ahead with this deal. We, as fans, have to trust what they are doing. We'll see what happens 2 or 3 years down the road.

We have to trust what they are doing?  Never.  They've given so little reason to trust them thus far, and now they're dealing with $$$ that could substantially hurt them to lose in upcoming seasons.

So, no, I will not trust them.  My fingers are just crossed that they get lucky with this one.  They obviously are accepting risk far beyond what other, free-spending teams will.  That's very unlikely good process, but, again, maybe we get lucky.

I do think the Twins had a bit of an advantage here.  Correa's contract was too huge for SF to take any risk.  He was going to screw up their payroll, maybe insurance wasn't available, and they didn't really get a chance to shorten the contract.  The Mets offered $157.5 million, but that's really $300 million worth of spending for them, and maybe between insurance, risk, expenditure, and the multiple good prospects they have, that was their limit.  Plus, this wasn't for a shortstop.

I'll be okay with four mostly healthy years over the course of the six, but any less is crippling.

[saviking]

I've got to say the contract is still a little confusing to me? Is this really an 8 year contract for 275 million with an out for the twins after 6 years if he's not healthy.? 

Was the original offer 295 mill for 10 years? 

I never like to commit to a player for 10 years much less 12 or 13 years like the Giants and Met's. I really like the fact it's only a 6 year commitment if his ankle doesn't hold up. 

[nova_twins]

The luxury tax is an important factor. The Giants and Mets offered a large number of years to mitigate the AAV impact of the deal; once the long-term health issue became apparent, it blew up the financial basis of the deals from the club side. 

The Twins were able to go higher on AAV due to their low payroll, which in turn also made them much more flexible in structuring a deal. 

To put it another way, the Giants and Mets were only ever interested in "Low AAV Correa." That's *before* any physicals took place. The Twins never had that limitation. The same issue is also probably why other teams didn't jump in - clubs across MLB recognize Correa's value profile, and Minnesota was the best fit.