Let's see your best trade with the Marlins for pitching...

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

half a win, for next year. That doesn't take into account 4 extra years of control, and that Ryan was a rookie last year who could get better.....Lopez is projected as a number 2/3 pitcher, not some ace.

I probably worded my other comment too strongly. I'm a believer in Lopez being the same type of pitcher as Ryan. But better? No. Thus I'm not that interested in 2 years of him. I'd rather keep our players and extend Gray or Mahle or Maeda for a year if the extra year is really what's motivating anything.

[Minny505]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

half a win, for next year. That doesn't take into account 4 extra years of control, and that Ryan was a rookie last year who could get better.....Lopez is projected as a number 2/3 pitcher, not some ace.

Still projected to be better than any of our current SPs though. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I probably worded my other comment too strongly. I'm a believer in Lopez being the same type of pitcher as Ryan. But better? No. Thus I'm not that interested in 2 years of him. I'd rather keep our players and extend Gray or Mahle or Maeda for a year if the extra year is really what's motivating anything.

My point is that sure, he's projected higher....but he's not even close to being projected as a number 1 type. Not close. He's a 2/3. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Minny505 said:

Still projected to be better than any of our current SPs though. 

Did I argue otherwise? He's not a number 1, not close. 

[Minny505]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Did I argue otherwise? He's not a number 1, not close. 

No, but he would be the Twins #1.

[TyCobb367]

4 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

This is my feeling on Lopez as well. I want an opportunity/chance to improve the top of the rotation and Lopez doesn't do that for me. Then the 2 years of control vs 4+ thing basically takes him off the table in my mind.

Agreed! Lopez was a Cy Young candidate in April and May and then fell off a cliff. He is a slightly above average innings eater IMO who will get paid $20 million + per year in a couple years. With where the Twins are now, the goal should be to land the high upside group in the Marlins organization. Luzardo, Perez, and Cabrera all fit that category.

[TyCobb367]

20 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Everyone on the Marlins is available at a price. Go big or go home. Want to win in the next 5-7 years? Here it is.

MN receives: Alcantara and Luzardo 

MIA receives: Arraez, Lewis, Larnach, Ober, Polanco, and another young SP prospect.

 

Alcantara is one of the most valuable players in baseball before you consider his team friendly contract and years of control. That offer would probably end all discussions with the Marlins for a couple of years!

[TyCobb367]

18 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I happen to like the BTV site because it at least gives me a sense if what I'm proposing is realistic or simply a fantasy.  Here are some player values according to the site:

Marlins P. Lopez 38.7  26 yrs old   Ed. Cabrera 14.8  24 yrs old   J. Luzardo 20.8  24 yrs old  Max Meyer  21.1  23 yrs old  Trevor Rogers  36.5  24 yrs old   Sixto Sanchez  1.6  24 years old.

Twins  Arraez 26.6  26 yrs old  Polanco 34.8  28 yrs old  Larnach 14.6 25 yrs old  Kepler 7.6  29 yrs old  Kirilloff 11.9  24 yrs old  Martin 7.5 (young) Wallner 7.3  24 yrs old Winder 8.3  25 yrs old Miranda 26.4  24 yrs old  Ober 21.8  26 yrs old.

From this, I will propose two trades that would work.  In each I slightly overpay to get young, controllable pitching.

Trade #1  Arraez 26.6 & Larnach 14.6  total 41.2  for Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto Sanchez 1.6  total 40.3

Trade #2  Polanco 34.8 and Kepler 7.6 total 42.4  for Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto Sanchez 1.6  total 40.3

Each trade is fair to both teams and realistic.  The Marlins get veteran bats. (or an up and coming bat in Larnach's case).  The Twins get a #1 pitcher (I disagree with those who don't think so.  Lopez is 26 years old.  Capable of throwing 180+ innings and strikes guys out.  We'd have him for two solid years and longer if at 28 they like what they've got.  We have NO ONE we could expect 180+ innings from).  The Wild Card in each trade is Sixto Sanchez who for the last two years has battled some shoulder issues but was at one time MLB's #6 overall prospect.  Sanchez is just 24 years old and his value is waaay too low.  That's who I target as a throw in that could be a huge piece down the road.  The Twins have several "young promising arms" where health has been an issue.  In Lopez, they get a horse.  In Sanchez they get a lottery ticket that would leave the Twins very deep in young talented arms for the future.  This is the kind of trade I would make ESPCIALLY now that we've got Correa for the next 6 years.  Buxton & Correa give the Twins 2 guys that can be high WAR guys if they play 140 games or more each season.

Having spoken out against Lopez…sign me up for the Lopez/Sanchez for Polanco/ Kepler trade. Both Polanco and Kepler have most likely peaked, Sanchez still has upside (possibly as a lights out closer), and assuming he keeps eating up innings, Lopez will have nice value at the deadline.

[MoyBoy74]

On 1/10/2023 at 6:48 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I know the focus is on the Marlins specifically in this thread. My thought is what are the Diamondbacks doing? What would it take to trade for Zac Gallen? 

What would he cost?

They don't need left-handed Outfielder 

He has good numbers. He would be #2 starter. With 3 years control I believe.

Would or Could we swap Sonny Gray and 3 high upside lower minor prospects?

I don't want to give Sonny Gray 3 year and 57 million or 4 years and 70 million

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, TyCobb367 said:

Alcantara is one of the most valuable players in baseball before you consider his team friendly contract and years of control. That offer would probably end all discussions with the Marlins for a couple of years!

In a later post, I added Buxton to the mix...

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

If you're wondering? Yes, I have been playing OOTP this week. 

On the default setting, not the hard/realistic setting.

[tony&rodney]

People may not want to believe it but teams actually do emphatically tell other teams not to inquire about a few players. The term is untouchable.  Arizona is not going to trade Corbin Carroll, St. Louis is not listening on Jordan Walker, and the Yankees are not parting with Anthony Volpe. There are examples on every single team. Miami has stated that Alcantara and Perez are not available. Why not believe it when a team is specific?

BTV is a site to give us a window of an idea of how players compare to each other. Alcantara is the fifth highest valued player in MLB by BTV or more valuable than Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff combined. 

So what does Miami desire? They need outfielders to hit, preferably a centerfielder and also would like a player with some years of control remaining who can hit and play first base. Arraez can hit, Larnach has  promise as a solid outfielder, Gordon displayed real growth and barrel skills last season, Kepler can play a decent centerfield, and the Twins also have a couple of other decent hitting prospects such as Lewis, Miranda, and Martin. 

Cabrera, Luzardo, and Meyer all have similar value with Fulton a promising pitcher as well. My preference is for Cabrera and Luzardo. what does Falvey think? Does he believe that Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson are just as good as any of the potentially available Miami arms? Maybe the Twins just roll with what they have.

I hope all of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda have career years in 2023, but I don't see value in extending any of them at the current cost of starting pitching. Thus I'm interested in the Marlin's young pitchers and my best offer to Miami  for Cabrera is Arraez and Larnach. I also offer to take on Soler's contract for Miami and send along Kepler, Martin, Winder, and Miller in return for Luzardo. This does create some 40 person challenges for Miami, so maybe there are other ideas. Or maybe, the Twins just have faith that they have what they need right now.

[Rigby]

Miami moved Rojas to LA. Jazz to SS paves way for new 2nd baseman??

[TyCobb367]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

People may not want to believe it but teams actually do emphatically tell other teams not to inquire about a few players. The term is untouchable.  Arizona is not going to trade Corbin Carroll, St. Louis is not listening on Jordan Walker, and the Yankees are not parting with Anthony Volpe. There are examples on every single team. Miami has stated that Alcantara and Perez are not available. Why not believe it when a team is specific?

BTV is a site to give us a window of an idea of how players compare to each other. Alcantara is the fifth highest valued player in MLB by BTV or more valuable than Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff combined. 

So what does Miami desire? They need outfielders to hit, preferably a centerfielder and also would like a player with some years of control remaining who can hit and play first base. Arraez can hit, Larnach has  promise as a solid outfielder, Gordon displayed real growth and barrel skills last season, Kepler can play a decent centerfield, and the Twins also have a couple of other decent hitting prospects such as Lewis, Miranda, and Martin. 

Cabrera, Luzardo, and Meyer all have similar value with Fulton a promising pitcher as well. My preference is for Cabrera and Luzardo. what does Falvey think? Does he believe that Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson are just as good as any of the potentially available Miami arms? Maybe the Twins just roll with what they have.

I hope all of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda have career years in 2023, but I don't see value in extending any of them at the current cost of starting pitching. Thus I'm interested in the Marlin's young pitchers and my best offer to Miami  for Cabrera is Arraez and Larnach. I also offer to take on Soler's contract for Miami and send along Kepler, Martin, Winder, and Miller in return for Luzardo. This does create some 40 person challenges for Miami, so maybe there are other ideas. Or maybe, the Twins just have faith that they have what they need right now.

The Twins have no chance to win a World Series this year, and I personally don’t care about anything else! The starting rotation needs retooling. With the exception of Joe Ryan, I don’t see any foundational pieces in the organization outside of MAYBE Prielipp and Woods-Richardson if they can harness their potential and avoid injury. Ideally, Gray, Maeda, and Mahle pitch well enough this season so as to fetch some prospects at the deadline! We have a top 5 pick coming in the draft and 3 in the top 50, and we need to target pitching with at least two of those picks. Unless we can get a young controllable pitcher with a high upside for a package that doesn’t include Lee, Lewis,  or Arraez, I say we stand pat and use this as a year to evaluate the future and build the minor league system. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TyCobb367 said:

The starting rotation needs retooling. With the exception of Joe Ryan, I don’t see any foundational pieces in the organization outside of MAYBE Prielipp and Woods-Richardson

There are people who agree with you in whole and some others in part, which is why this long string of posts continually looks for a way to make a successful trade with Miami. You mention Lee, Lewis, and Arraez as basically untouchables. That is fair. I'm wondering how you picked those three. Lee is unproven but has promise of a player who does a little bit of everything well. Lewis was a number one overall draft pick and gave a glimpse of his potential talents last year before his injury. Arraez is quite a bit different than the other two. He is perhaps the most fun at bat on the team and his AL batting title speaks for his prowess as a batsman. He is certainly an excellent player but he may also be that guy that brings back the controllable starting pitcher with huge upside. Arraez is a 1B/DH, a position in less demand than SP or the positions that Lee or Lewis play for that matter. Adding upside with controllable years is the main point many in this post have tried to make with the various suggested trades. I'm not sure what works but if I'm a Marlins executive and going to give up Cabrera or Luzardo, a batting champion coming back catches my attention. 

[twinkiesfan11]

[I wish the twins were good]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Cabrera, Luzardo, and Meyer all have similar value with Fulton a promising pitcher as well. My preference is for Cabrera and Luzardo. what does Falvey think? Does he believe that Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson are just as good as any of the potentially available Miami arms? Maybe the Twins just roll with what they have.

I am behind this - bring Max Meyer home!

 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/10/2023 at 3:53 PM, Mike Sixel said:

That's a terrible trade for Miami 

Caleb Thielbar, while sometimes looking heroic for the TWINS, is on nobody’s trade radar. Certainly not a rebuild like Miami. I’m 60 & I think Thielbar is fragile & old!! 

Can’t gut the team either as one gentleman posted: Arraez - Polanco - Larnach - Ober - Lewis for 2 starters.

Kepler can’t be in Twins uni this year or FO is nuts!

How about Alcantara to TWINS

for

Kepler - Celestino - Martin (maybe 2B, Julien ?) - Ober.

A probable starter with upside in Ober……potential lineup anchor in Martin, youth that could be ready later this year………Kepler is plug in everyday RF……..Celestino is a depth OF.

3 guys under team. control for years & immediate OF help with Kepler.

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Caleb Thielbar, while sometimes looking heroic for the TWINS, is on nobody’s trade radar. Certainly not a rebuild like Miami. I’m 60 & I think Thielbar is fragile & old!! 

Can’t gut the team either as one gentleman posted: Arraez - Polanco - Larnach - Ober - Lewis for 2 starters.

Kepler can’t be in Twins uni this year or FO is nuts!

How about Alcantara to TWINS

for

Kepler - Celestino - Martin (maybe 2B, Julien ?) - Ober.

A probable starter with upside in Ober……potential lineup anchor in Martin, youth that could be ready later this year………Kepler is plug in everyday RF……..Celestino is a depth OF.

3 guys under team. control for years & immediate OF help with Kepler.

They aren't trading the best pitcher in baseball. Certainly not for less than two top fifty prospects and two more good players. 

[Rigby]

BTV is an interesting site but don't know that I would use them as the gospel regarding player evaluation. Lopez would cost you Correa, Buxton, Rodriguez and Mercedes. 

[RaoulDuke]

I think Cabrera is the one I covet, Luzardo/ Rogers are close and both look good. 

Lopez is by far the more established product, you know you are getting a 3 starter for 2 years.

They are probably looking for the established type but I would be way more into trading Arraez/ Polanco for the upside guys.  Pablo Lopez secures a mid rotation spot for another year but isn't that much better than Gray/ Mahle/ Maeda. 

Pay the extra cost to get Cabrera/ Luzardo/ Rogers if you are spending Arraez.

 

[IndianaTwin]

I’m not sure I want any of the Marlins pitchers. It’s not that I don’t think any of them would improve the team. I’m just not sure I can handle all of the “Is ________ an ace” articles bound to appear on TD. 

[GP830]

Despite the trade score being very even- this ***feels*** like a massive underpay. Curious on everyone’s thoughts.

[farmerguychris]

Pagan for a fresh fish dinner?

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 1/12/2023 at 3:31 PM, Rigby said:

BTV is an interesting site but don't know that I would use them as the gospel regarding player evaluation. Lopez would cost you Correa, Buxton, Rodriguez and Mercedes. 

Agreed, it’s a good tool, certainly better than us rubes throwing out the Duensings, but it values MLB players and prospects, weather or not they are on the 40 universally and not in regards to the needs of the team and perspective of the FO. It’s the best we got, but far from perfect

[AussieG]

[hof282011]

I like the cmoss idea but I think I'd substitute Kepler for Larnach. The Marlins could use a veteran corner outfielder. Not a Pablo Lopez fan unless the cost is minimal. Say Lopez for Kepler, top 5-10 Twins prospect. Remember late last year discussions were Lopez for Kepler straight up.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/11/2023 at 10:02 PM, tony&rodney said:

There are people who agree with you in whole and some others in part, which is why this long string of posts continually looks for a way to make a successful trade with Miami. You mention Lee, Lewis, and Arraez as basically untouchables. That is fair. I'm wondering how you picked those three. Lee is unproven but has promise of a player who does a little bit of everything well. Lewis was a number one overall draft pick and gave a glimpse of his potential talents last year before his injury. Arraez is quite a bit different than the other two. He is perhaps the most fun at bat on the team and his AL batting title speaks for his prowess as a batsman. He is certainly an excellent player but he may also be that guy that brings back the controllable starting pitcher with huge upside. Arraez is a 1B/DH, a position in less demand than SP or the positions that Lee or Lewis play for that matter. Adding upside with controllable years is the main point many in this post have tried to make with the various suggested trades. I'm not sure what works but if I'm a Marlins executive and going to give up Cabrera or Luzardo, a batting champion coming back catches my attention. 

My Marlin’s executive eye catcher:

4 players under control…….Lopez for a couple more years. The other 3 guys are under control for the foreseeable future. Walner - López - Celestino - IF prospect (other than Lewis or Lee)

for

Luzardo

[KL1551]

Sandy Alcantara for Nick Gordon. Straight up...

[brockbesler]

This is what I would do. It’s on overpay according to trade simulator, but I think it would take something like this.