Torii Hunter- My Case for Cooperstown

[Alex Boxwell]

Draw a line in the sand, pick a side, let's debate. Torii Hunter has a case for the Hall of Fame, and his candidacy has been grossly ignored by the baseball writers.

Image courtesy of Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

 

Torii Hunter was a phenomenal player, and no one will give you any pushback on that take. What the baseball writers overlook, and what is a huge topic for debate, is his claim to a spot in Cooperstown. On the last vote, Torii Hunter received 21 votes. He was selected on just over five percent of ballots, barely keeping him in on this year's ballot. The distorted curve of how we grade center field play and offensive production has plagued his candidacy. Other premium defensive positions like shortstop and catcher get more love for their defensive prowess.

The way the game has evolved, the value of great defensive center field play has started to creep up on the value of a great defensive shortstop. We can put the glove before the bat when we evaluate a premium defensive position and their rightful spot in the Hall of Fame. Ozzie Smith has been enshrined in Cooperstown (no one should argue against that). We need to pause and look at Torii Hunter’s body of work and the transcendent defense he brought to center field for as long as anybody to play the position.

Ozzie Smith is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, but his offensive numbers do not warrant a trip to Cooperstown. His career slash line is .262/.337/.328 for a career OPS of .666 and an 87 OPS+ (OPS+ takes into account eras of play and stadiums played in. 100 being an average OPS+). Pair that with 2,460 hits, 28 career homers, and 580 stolen bases. Most impressively, The Wizard only struck out 589 times in his 10,778 career plate appearances (roughly 5.5% K-rate). There’s no denying that in his prime, Smith willed his way to be a productive hitter by stealing bases and putting the ball in play even though he only hit over .300 once in his 19-year career. 

The accolades for The Wizard of Oz kick off with the Gold Gloves; he brought in 13 of them at the shortstop position. From ‘80-’92, Smith was the standard of great defense and racked up his 13 consecutive gold gloves. He was also a 15-time All-Star in an era where the soft-hitting shortstop was acceptable, and his final three selections were a hair charitable in his age 39-41 seasons. Lastly, he brought home his one silver slugger when he slashed .303/.392/.383 for a .775 OPS, no doubt his best season.

I’m a firm believer in the OPS and OPS+ statistics. It is the easiest way to judge someone’s prowess at the plate. My benchmark for a solid hitter is a .750 OPS, and the average for OPS+ is 100 on the nose. Smith surpassed .750 once in his career and approached it with a .747 OPS in only one other season. Based on OPS+, he surpassed that number four times, with his best season being a 112 OPS+. Otherwise, he was well off that mark in all his other seasons. The Wizard was swinging a wet newspaper, and the ball stuck to his bat. He was not a pure hitter. 

So why was he a sure-fire Hall of Famer? DEFENSE MATTERS. If we agree and baseball writers agree, then there is a case for Torii Hunter to be enshrined.

Offensively, Hunter holds up better than Smith. The career slash line on T-Nuts is .277/.331/.461 for a career .793 OPS (110 OPS+), a very respectable career line, 10% above league average for his era. You pair that with 353 homers, 2,452 hits, and 195 stolen bases. Hunter struck out more than Smith, but Hunter brought WAY more juice with his bat. He posted a .762 OPS or higher for 13 seasons in a row (also 13 seasons with an OPS+ of over 100) to go with two Silver Sluggers and his nine consecutive Gold Gloves in center field. The only center fielders with more Gold Gloves are three of the freakiest athletes ever to play the game: Willie Mays (12), Andrew Jones (10), and Ken Griffey Jr. (10). 

Hunter’s problem is that the steroid era moved the needle for offensive production. We have become callous to consistency, 20-homer seasons, speed, and good defense. We saw this play out so ridiculously with Fred McGriff. Anyone that watched and knew baseball said McGriff is a Hall of Famer. It took his candidacy to reach a jury of his peers, and he was elected IMMEDIATELY and UNANIMOUSLY. 

Hunter’s prime was in the heart of the steroid era, saving runs and providing almost immeasurable value as guys were elevating the baseball more frequently. On the flip side, his offensive numbers, unfortunately, lost value as players’ hat sizes fluctuated more than bitcoin prices. Hunter’s hat stayed the same size.

Hunter was an iconic center fielder. He also evolved into a true pro at the plate when his speed, age, and the speed demon Peter Bourjos (not Mike Trout) required a move to right field. Longevity in center field is impossible. You can’t stick in center field for 15 years plus, and we need to adjust the measuring stick for excellence in center field accordingly because players like Torii are essential to the history of baseball. 

I do not think Torii Hunter is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he has a better case than is being shown by current voting numbers. In his prime, he was arguably the best defensive center fielder we’ve ever seen. Then he proved to be a genuinely productive bat for 13 of his 17 seasons. 

If defense matters, and in a previous era, we acknowledged defense matters when we rightfully inducted Ozzie Smith. We must either declare defense doesn’t matter, OR Torii Hunter is a Hall of Fame center fielder.

 

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[DJL44]

If defense matters so much you should be stumping for Andruw Jones - he's clearly a better defender than Torii. Andruw actually produced more at the plate over his career as well (RBat 119 vs 113).

Torii has a (weak) case but not as good as Edmonds or Andruw or Lofton. That's just among recently retired CF.

[brockbesler]

Very well written. I think he deserves a spot in the HOF, but it’s going to be difficult to get him in without Andruw Jones in.

[brockbesler]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If defense matters so much you should be stumping for Andruw Jones - he's clearly a better defender than Torii. Andruw actually produced more at the plate over his career as well (RBat 119 vs 113).

Torii has a (weak) case but not as good as Edmonds or Andruw or Lofton. That's just among recently retired CF.

I never understood why Kenny Lofton didn’t get more support for the Hall.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, brockbesler said:

I never understood why Kenny Lofton didn’t get more support for the Hall.

His sexual misconduct charge isn't going to help his case.

[Matt Braun]

I'd love to support Torii more, but it's clear that advanced stats don't buy that he's one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all-time; he's like outfield Derek Jeter, unfortunately. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Matt Braun said:

I'd love to support Torii more, but it's clear that advanced stats don't buy that he's one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all-time; he's like outfield Derek Jeter, unfortunately. 

That's unfair. Jeter was a below average SS with a Gold Glove rep. Torii was at least an above average CF with a Gold Glove rep. He's more like the outfield version of Omar Vizquel. Vizquel and Torii were both very good defenders but not all-time greats.

[CRF]

Very good player, no doubt. Not HOF though. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, CRF said:

Very good player, no doubt. Not HOF though. 

Agreed

[Trov]

I think it really comes down to are you a big hall or small hall person.  Baseball has wanted to be a small hall all along, with having years of no one getting in.  I fully agree he could be warranted just based on his defense alone, but I think where he falls for me, is he never was the guy that pushed us over the top.  He always put up good numbers, but not great, and was never a guy people were like, we are scared to face him.  

He did make web gems a thing and was always making great catches, in the dome which is even crazier.  He also played during time of Andruw Jones and Jones was considered better during that time overall, but Jones did fall off after age 30, Hunter managed to play at a higher level late into 30's, which to me should be considered.  

I feel if you are one of the best of your era at a position, you should be considered, but the baseball hall has always wanted to compare across eras and offense counting numbers was always important, unless you are Ozzie Smith as point out. 

[Alex Boxwell]

I do want to address that I think Andrew Jones is deserving of a spot in Cooperstown as well. CF is a hard position to evaluate because it's a premium position but you can't play the position well for 15-years. Much like a CB in the NFL when you lose a step you have to move off the position. I think the narrative is potentially off when judging players that were elite defensively in CF and Torii has a good offensive career and longevity to give his candidacy more of a backbone as well. 
 

Appreciate all your feedback! 

[ashbury]

The wording of the headline made me think you are ghostwriting Torii's autobiography.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nice article. Thanks. However, I'm not convinced Torii belongs in the Hall of Fame. 

[Luke Thompson]

He has a shot I believe

[Karbo]

What you forgot in the article was what a classy person he was. Even fans in other cities loved the guy. Personally, the catch he made in an all star game against Barry Bonds will always stand out. I would vote for him 

[jmlease1]

I'm a big fan of Torii Hunter as a player, and he was one of the more exciting players in Twins history. But for me, he falls short of Hall of Fame.

I'm not militant about small hall v big hall, and I think there's room for players who had really high peaks as well as those who didn't rise quite as high but had long runs of sustained excellence. Torii's case relies more on the second than the first; he just didn't have any of those amazing seasons where you had to consider him one of the best of the best in baseball, a true MVP contender, etc. There's something to be said for having 13 years in a row where you don't have a bad season, but he only landed 5 all-star appearances...and that was fairly generous based on his performance. Yes, he won 9 Gold Gloves, but the metrics suggest that most of the later ones were probably more due to reputation than performance. (This is where the Ozzie Smith argument falls flat: Oz really was that great on defense by any analysis)

When Torii's bat got going, his defense was already slipping. When he was a great defender, he hadn't figured out how to really hit yet. He was frequently a good offensive player, never a great one (never had an OPS+ over 130) Looking at a couple of Torii's peers is instructive: Jim Edmonds & Mike Cameron. Neither is in the Hall, and I'd argue Torii is closer to Cameron than Edmonds...and no one is really advocating for Mike Cameron as a Hall of Famer. (Lofton was better than any of them, but seems to have detonated his chances through his personal conduct)

Torii was a wonderful player. But he falls short for me.

 

[gil4]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

What you forgot in the article was what a classy person he was. Even fans in other cities loved the guy. Personally, the catch he made in an all star game against Barry Bonds will always stand out. I would vote for him 

I am glad he was on the Twins, and I'm glad he came back after he left, but I wouldn't vote for him.  He was one of the best defensive CF of his generation. Ozzie Smith was one of the best defensive SS of all time, possibly the best. That's not a small difference. While SS and CF are both considered premium defensive positions, SS is far more premium.  (SS= Ruth's Chris.  CF=Texas Roadhouse) 

Also, while OPS and OPS+ are useful estimates of a player's offense, they tend to undervalue guys who generate most of their offense from OBP rather than SLG.  Ozzie and Torii didn't have a huge gap in OBP (career .337 to .331), Ozzie's was higher.  If you compare their oWAR over the course of their careers, they close.  If you compare their dWAR, they aren't.  (dWAR might be flawed, but not THAT flawed.  44.2 to 4.0 career dWAR).  

[Doctor Gast]

IMO defense, hitting, scruples & class do matter. More than most people give them credit for. Comparing Hunter to these steroids addicts like Barry Bonds is not fair. During this era we look at Hunter & say he's really good but he's no Barry Bonds. He's no Barry Bonds because he didn't take steroids.

In an era where steroids were very prevalent, It'd be very easy to yield to that temptation. Hunter chose to not go down that road and that should count for something. He has my vote.

[Trov]

12 hours ago, gil4 said:

I am glad he was on the Twins, and I'm glad he came back after he left, but I wouldn't vote for him.  He was one of the best defensive CF of his generation. Ozzie Smith was one of the best defensive SS of all time, possibly the best. That's not a small difference. While SS and CF are both considered premium defensive positions, SS is far more premium.  (SS= Ruth's Chris.  CF=Texas Roadhouse) 

Also, while OPS and OPS+ are useful estimates of a player's offense, they tend to undervalue guys who generate most of their offense from OBP rather than SLG.  Ozzie and Torii didn't have a huge gap in OBP (career .337 to .331), Ozzie's was higher.  If you compare their oWAR over the course of their careers, they close.  If you compare their dWAR, they aren't.  (dWAR might be flawed, but not THAT flawed.  44.2 to 4.0 career dWAR).  

I was going to post about the difference the dWAR according to baseball reference.  I do not know the exact metric on how they go about it, but the have that big of a difference over a career, and Smith was never negative.  I get the authors point that not many can stick to a position like CF for full career, and compared CB in football.  However, the same can be said for SS, as very few stay at it, or are considered good on defense at it late in career.  One of the next closest is Omar Vizquel who had a career 29.5 dWAR.  I think the point that not many can do it, should show that the few that do it, are HOF compared to others.  

Baseball HOF has always compared across eras, but even compared to his counter parts, Hunter was never considered HOF bound.  He put up some great defense, and I have not done the research on all CF, but Andruw Jones has dWAR of 24.4.  Mike Cameron had career dWAR of 10.3, also played to age 38.  Maybe Hunter was not as great of a defender as we thought.  He made amazing catches, which always look great, but compared to 2 CF of his era he overall defense was not as good as either.  

[HoskenPowell]

Not a HOF player. Period. Not even close.   And I enjoyed Torri as a player.   Too many people lowering the bar on the HOF. It's got to stop. 

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, Trov said:

I was going to post about the difference the dWAR according to baseball reference.  I do not know the exact metric on how they go about it, but the have that big of a difference over a career, and Smith was never negative.  I get the authors point that not many can stick to a position like CF for full career, and compared CB in football.  However, the same can be said for SS, as very few stay at it, or are considered good on defense at it late in career.  One of the next closest is Omar Vizquel who had a career 29.5 dWAR.  I think the point that not many can do it, should show that the few that do it, are HOF compared to others.  

Baseball HOF has always compared across eras, but even compared to his counter parts, Hunter was never considered HOF bound.  He put up some great defense, and I have not done the research on all CF, but Andruw Jones has dWAR of 24.4.  Mike Cameron had career dWAR of 10.3, also played to age 38.  Maybe Hunter was not as great of a defender as we thought.  He made amazing catches, which always look great, but compared to 2 CF of his era he overall defense was not as good as either.  

dWAR is useless for almost everything. Use RField to figure out how good a player was versus their positional average.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

In an era where steroids were very prevalent, It'd be very easy to yield to that temptation. Hunter chose to not go down that road and that should count for something. He has my vote.

"Didn't take steroids" shouldn't be impressive enough to get a Hall of Fame vote. That's like "Didn't swear at his dog".

[DJL44]

44 minutes ago, HoskenPowell said:

Not a HOF player. Period. Not even close.   And I enjoyed Torri as a player.   Too many people lowering the bar on the HOF. It's got to stop. 

I agree, they really need to quit inducting players like Harold Baines, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva and Lee Smith.

[IA Bean Counter]

I actually agree that Torri has a shot, at the hall and will be more revered by his peers.  To me he was just a tad light on the counting stats.  I think if he gets over 2500 hits,  slightly more homers, and over 200 steals,  he is viewed as basically a shoe in with his defense.  If he pushed to 400 home runs he is a 1st ballot hall of famer.  I think he should be in,  I think compared to his peers he comes in a tad light for the writers.