The Twins' One Big Flaw in their Free Agency Approach (Preview)

[Matthew Trueblood]

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins have prized depth on their roster and optionality in their processes. Their approach to MLB free agency has reflected that fact. Alas, that means they’re only doing half the job that a great front office must do in free agency, and it’s the less vital half.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

MLB free agency is really one name for two overlapping but distinct tasks. One of those is finding short-term answers to immediate problems. In this aspect, a front office needs to reinforce thin areas on their roster; balance the pursuit of upside with the necessity of setting a firm floor for a given roster spot; and husband their resources as closely as possible. They need to fill holes without leaving themselves ossified or cornered when the opportunity or the need to change tack arises.

The other task that makes up free agency, though, is adding high-impact talent to the franchise on a long-term basis. This is talked about too rarely, but it’s crucial. 

That’s because, ultimately, having star-caliber players is a non-negotiable prerequisite for consistent contention. To longtime baseball fans, this can seem like the vapid talk of a cotton-headed basketball or football fan. No individual can have the same impact on a ball club as LeBron James can have on a basketball team, or even the impact that any of several good quarterbacks can have on their rosters. 

One of baseball’s beautiful characteristics is that depth will out, and that good teams are unavoidably reliant upon a broader base of contributors. Every roster spot matters, and stars can’t carry subpar fellows very far. The bottom 60 percent of a 26- and a 40-man roster needs to be full of guys who hew closer to average than to the replacement level, or else a team will stall out over the long season.

True though that might be when it comes to analyzing a team based on its two or three best players, it fades into irrelevance if you judge a team by its seven or eight best. Good teams need above-average players—not a couple of them, but a cadre. 

It’s simple math, really. If you have that army of credible, almost-good players rounding out the bottom of the roster, you’ve set a floor somewhere between 70 and 75 wins. If the top handful of batters and pitchers are each just a win above average, though, you can’t push much past 85 wins. Teams with real chances of reaching and causing trouble in the postseason, and especially those who stand any chance of doing so multiple times in a span of a few years, need to have clear paths to 90 wins or more.

A deeper dive into players who post a 4+ WAR tells why the Twins have been coming up short against the more elite teams in the American League, including in the postseason. But we reward our Caretakers with the meatier stories like this, since they’re the ones that support paying writers for a more thorough examination. 

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[Russ]

One?

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins have prized depth on their roster and optionality in their processes. Their approach to MLB free agency has reflected that fact. Alas, that means they’re only doing half the job that a great front office must do in free agency, and it’s the less vital half.

author-tracker.gif

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

The other task that makes up free agency, though, is adding high-impact talent to the franchise on a long-term basis. This is talked about too rarely, but it’s crucial. 

 

Crucial?  The three most successful teams (by far) in the bottom half of revenue have never signed a free agent for more than $70M.   People keep saying it's crucial while never providing any examples of teams with equal or less revenue signing elite free agents and going on to success.  

[RJA]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Crucial?  The three most successful teams (by far) in the bottom half of revenue have never signed a free agent for more than $70M.   People keep saying it's crucial while never providing any examples of teams with equal or less revenue signing elite free agents and going on to success.  

I agree with you 100%.  The problem is that unlike the Guardians or Rays for example, the Twins have not effectively created the pitching pipeline that is necessary if a small market team is going to survive without signing free agents.  No small market team can live off of free agency, but if they have a pitching pipeline, adding someone on occasion to put them over the top can be a help.  Plus, having an abundance of talented young pitchers gives you the opportunity to trade pitching for big time talent, like the aforementioned teams have done.  Everyone is looking for pitching so the return for young pitching is excellent. 

[sun]

48 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Crucial?  The three most successful teams (by far) in the bottom half of revenue have never signed a free agent for more than $70M.   People keep saying it's crucial while never providing any examples of teams with equal or less revenue signing elite free agents and going on to success.  

Since you must be referring to the Toronto Blue Jays, they signed George Springer to a 6 year contact for $150 million. They spent more than the Twins while generating less revenue, and went to the playoffs last year with 92 wins.

[sun]

"Alas, that means they’re only doing half the job that a great front office must do in free agency, and it’s the less vital half."

I agree that more needs to be done. However the coaching staff can also be as important as free agents. Their decisions can win or lose close games. The managers and coaches send runners around the bases, choose the pitchers, when to bunt & play small ball, where to shift the fielders, when to give players days off. which positions players play. We'd all like to think that Rocco and the other coaches have improved over the years, but the play on the field and the results don't always show it. A team is only going to be as good as the weakest links which includes the decisions of all of the coaches & manager..

And also neither the front office or the coaching staff can control injuries & illness of which the Twins have had way too many. including to both its top performers and young prospects alike.

[Rosterman]

2022 was a good example of adding some solid names, happily via trade, but they blew up, along with so many others. When you have an outfield of Cntreras, Garlick, Cave and starting Chi Chi Gonzalez, while a full lineup of players are sitting in the training room, no amount of money will save the team.

 

And the biggie, since free agency is such a gamble, is gambling on your own players (what the Guardians have done in the past, what the Braves are doing now). Part of getting a new stadium made the Twins say "we will now be able to keep our own free agents." Well, we see how that has worked out. And, sure you will get a Dobnak contract now and then (or Blackburn, or Mays), but you also got Span, Polanco, Kepler amongst others that were much lower risk than offering a guy $105m for three years, or the Donaldson thingie. 

Donaldson was a good example. If the guy is injured, that's big bucks. If he can't play third, do you have a place for him elsewhere? In the back-of-your-mind you like to think that a free agent signing might also mean that you can flip the guy if the team "blows up." 

[MGM4706]

"Depth"? Quite amusing. There is very little "QUALITY" depth on the roster. When you lose one of the best Left-Sides in baseball for 2022 and the answer is Miranda and Farmer that is not Depth. In the outfield with Buxton now a 2 game a week player, where is the quality depth for him? Larnach is like Sano. The league figured out he can't hit a breaking ball and his defense is atrocious. 3 feet to his left and 3 feet to his right. And playing the wall? Forget it. And HEALTHY Pitching? Not much depth there either.  So look again when evaluating the front office Whiz Kids. They got DRAMATICALLY out-maneuvered this off season with Free Agents and Trades.

[Mike Sixel]

If no front office ever signs great players, you should probably look to ownership.... And stop blaming the front office.

[IA Bean Counter]

I think it would be hilarious if this is the day that Correa signs with the Twins.   Effectively this article would go up in smoke.  

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, sun said:

Since you must be referring to the Toronto Blue Jays, they signed George Springer to a 6 year contact for $150 million. They spent more than the Twins while generating less revenue, and went to the playoffs last year with 92 wins.

That is one example but I was referring to the As, Ray's and Guardians who have (28) 90+ win seasons since the turn of the century.  The Blue Jays have 3, one with Springer so that's 28:1 for teams that did not have a free agent with 1/2 the contract.

It's obviously a boost if a team can sign a top free agent.  Somewhat ironically, the enabling factor for any team in the bottom half of revenue is their ability to produce ML talent.   One major talent is useless without a team around them.  Signing elite free agents is not crucial at all if you can develop talent and then use what would be free agent budget to extend them at a better value than possible in free agency.

The fact that we have not been as good as Tampa at developing talent does not make free agency a solution.  Relying on free agency is asking to fail.  Get better at practices that yield better results instead of pursuing practices with very little chance of success.

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If no front office ever signs great players, you should probably look to ownership.... And stop blaming the front office.

Lots of front offices sign expensive players.  The VAST majority of those front offices are generally in markets that produce a lot of revenue.  Just look back at the percentage of those free agents that went to the top 10 revenue markets.  How many school teachers drive a 150K Land Rover?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Lots of front offices sign expensive players.  The VAST majority of those front offices are generally in markets that produce a lot of revenue.  Just look back at the percentage of those free agents that went to the top 10 revenue markets.  How many school teachers drive a 150K Land Rover?

I'm not making any judgement about other teams. I'm suggesting if people are mad the twins don't do it, they should look at ownership. Because the front office change, and lack of signings doesn't.

Looks like they are signing CC today, though.....

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That is one example but I was referring to the As, Ray's and Guardians who have (28) 90+ win seasons since the turn of the century.  The Blue Jays have 3, one with Springer so that's 28:1 for teams that did not have a free agent with 1/2 the contract.

It's obviously a boost if a team can sign a top free agent.  Somewhat ironically, the enabling factor for any team in the bottom half of revenue is their ability to produce ML talent.   One major talent is useless without a team around them.  Signing elite free agents is not crucial at all if you can develop talent and then use what would be free agent budget to extend them at a better value than possible in free agency.

The fact that we have not been as good as Tampa at developing talent does not make free agency a solution.  Relying on free agency is asking to fail.  Get better at practices that yield better results instead of pursuing practices with very little chance of success.

No one has replicated what Tampa does. And, plenty of teams try, like Detroit, KC, Cincy, Pittsburgh.....

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one has replicated what Tampa does. And, plenty of teams try, like Detroit, KC, Cincy, Pittsburgh.....

Actually, Oakland has been better than Tampa.  Two more 90 win seasons and a considerably better win percentage.  Cleveland has a little more to spend.  They also have 2 more 90-win seasons.   Reds / Brewers / Rockies / Orioles / Pirates / Marlins / Padres / Blue Jays and Royals all have 3 or less.  Phillies / Tigers / White Sox / and Mets all have four.  

The difference is not just drafting and development.  If you look at these three teams, they have acquired almost as much productivity through trading established players for prospects as they have from drafted players.  We can do what they do and use the $50M revenue advantage we have to sign one big player or extend 2-3 players above what Tampa or Oakland could do.

[IA Bean Counter]

3 hours later and this article is severely outdated.  Extremely bad timing on the article,  but one I am sure we are all happy about.  

[IndianaTwin]

Some articles do age better than others…