Temp Check on Austin Martin

[ashbury]

Home run hitters drive Cadillacs. Singles hitters drive Fords. This concept dates back to at least Ralph Kiner, making it three quarters of a century old. Babe Ruth figured it out, so let's call it a nice round 100 years.

Luis Arraez is your quintessential "nice little player."  I believe you can even win a World Series with him as a regular on your roster, but you can say the same about several hundred ballplayers.

If Austin Martin wants to be more than a nice little player, he needs to display power.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Home run hitters drive Cadillacs. Singles hitters drive Fords. This concept dates back to at least Ralph Kiner, making it three quarters of a century old. Babe Ruth figured it out, so let's call it a nice round 100 years.

Luis Arraez is your quintessential "nice little player."  I believe you can even win a World Series with him as a regular on your roster, but you can say the same about several hundred ballplayers.

If Austin Martin wants to be more than a nice little player, he needs to display power.

While I generally agree, if he can play elite D and get on base and steal at will, he has a lot more value than Arraez (big ifs, there)....but he has enough speed to play LF or CF and be valuable. 

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

if he can play elite D

I don't believe this will ever come to pass. Unclear he can even play acceptable SS, and average CF looks like his ceiling to me.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

I don't believe this will ever come to pass. Unclear he can even play acceptable SS, and average CF looks like his ceiling to me.

It's almost like I put the word "if" in there on purpose.......I have no idea what kind of OF he can be. He's all of how old? How far out of college? I'm just saying, the people on this board giving up on a guy with this little professional experience would have cut Hunter....and Dozier....and others.

[ashbury]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

It's almost like I put the word "if" in there on purpose.......I have no idea what kind of OF he can be. He's all of how old? How far out of college? I'm just saying, the people on this board giving up on a guy with this little professional experience would have cut Hunter....and Dozier....and others.

Okay, but you also put the word "elite" in there on purpose.   "If" means you think it's possible, and I'm here to say that "elite" is unlikely in the extreme.

[Danchat]

Martin doesn’t deserve to be in the same conversation as Arraez, Luis hit .318 at AA (.298 in his first couple months), and Martin couldn’t hit well even in his second go-around at AA! There are few players who pan out like Arraez and Merrifield do. 
 

Nick Gordon is a solid comparison, I could see Martin taking the late bloomer route as a backup OF who has a decent season or two in the majors. But if he wants to be more than that, he needs to be more than a prospect whose only strengths are stealing bases and taking a ton of walks.

[High heat]

Let’s see what 2023 brings.  He looked like a total different playing the AFL.

[Trov]

On 1/7/2023 at 11:22 AM, Dman said:

I think Martin profiles best in Center field if his defense is good there.  He doesn't have a great arm and that is why I don't think he is a good candidate for short.  The arm hurts him in center some too when there are deep balls hit to center.  Still he has speed, a good eye at the plate and is someone who can make contact so I think his value position (if he can play it well) is center.  Granted he has potential for super utility as well.

If you read the article from the Athletic (subscription required) then it appears the Twins did ask him to tweak his approach to go with a power swing early in counts and then shorten up after two strikes.  Here are some excerpts from that article.

"Before the start of the season, the Twins attempted to implement changes to Martin’s approach at the plate. The idea was that Martin — who has played a lot at shortstop but more likely profiles at second base and in center field — has such good bat-to-ball skills that he could sell out for power early in the count in an attempt to do more damage. Even if he didn’t come through, Martin is so good at hitting with two strikes that he could shorten up and still get on base enough to warrant the change."

"But Martin recently told MLB Pipeline he used his time off to recalibrate. He created a new plan with his hitting coaches and started to get going again. Martin returned to action on Aug. 17 and, reverting to more of his old approach, finished with a solid September."

So it is possible the Twins messed with his head too much. Hard to say but he does seem to be back to his normal self but without a ton of power.  I am still a believer in Martin in the "Nick Gordon" role.  Will have to wait and see how things turn out but this is a big year for Martin.

I dislike when teams try to change what a player does well, in hopes of getting something a little better, only to then have worse affects.  We did this with Buck for years.  Kept telling him different ways to do things, to fix problems he really did not have at the time, but expected to have.  Martin, the issue is his lack of power, but if he can hit line drives, I am okay if he is not a big power guy.  Works for some guys.  Twins just assumed it would be a problem down the road so lets try to change what he has done his whole life and what got him drafted 5th overall. Hard to change what you have done your whole life. 

[Steve Lein]

On 1/7/2023 at 10:28 AM, roger said:

Still like this kid and remain hopeful he has a big 2023.

One question.  It is known that the Twins 'tinkered' with his swing when he came over from Toronto.  Assume that was related to their wanting more power.  We also know that he had a bad 2022 at the plate, which may have been related to a hand injury.  He then had a great month in the AFL. 

Does anyone know if he returned to his pre-tinkering swing in the AFL when away from Twins coaching?  Or did he not do anything different, other than being healthier?  I sure don't know, but an interesting question.

I don't have a link or anything to share, but I'm fairly certain while covering the AFL this year, I saw mentions of the Twins/him kind of taking the Buxton approach: Okay we tried, just go out and do your thing now.

But I also think the injuries played a big role in his "underperformance" this season. After taking a month off he came back and finished September with an .827 OPS. Then he rode that momentum into a .936 OPS in the AFL. I said this to summarize his performance there in the last of my AFL updates:

"I’ve followed this league for a long time, and just like Royce Lewis’ MVP campaign of 2019 (where he had a .975 OPS after a .661 in the regular season), this performance absolutely should restore some prospect luster for Austin Martin. Now the Twins just need to find him a position, but I can see him functioning as a very athletic super-utility type when it comes to defense in the majors, much like how Luis Arraez got his start."

Edited January 13, 2023 by Steve Lein

[farmerguychris]

I would expect we don't see the finished product just yet.  I'm sure the coaches have been having him try new things to see what works best for him.  When you're trying things you are either not familiar with, or that don't feel natural to you due to lack of reps - you won't get great results.  Hopefully this year they can use what they learned last year that works, and feels good to him and let them play out to get a real feel for where he is at.