The Twins' Road to Nowhere

[rv78]

Signing Gallo at $11M to replace Sano who would have cost $14M saved the Twins $3M and they still get the massive hole in their lineup. These guys are brillant!

[Paul Walerius]

7 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am so tired of commenting on articles and stories like this.  The Twins didn't sign anybody, so they have no focus, no direction, the FO sucks, torch the owner...

1) Stop assuming efforts aren't made.
2) Stop assuming the Twins aren't willing to spend money on a particular player.
3) Stop assuming they should be in on every FA on the market
4) Stop assuming every FA wants to come to MN

The Twins have a boatload of talent coming off of injuries, they upgraded at catcher, got a placeholder replacement for Correa, made the decision to go with MIranda at 3B, and picked up another viable piece in the OF.

Stop saying there is no plan. Stop saying everyone is dumb or cheap.

Just say you don't agree with the plan currently being taken.

Glad someone said it.    What did Dazzle man do to you though?

 

[BuxtonBonanza]

I think the FO does have a philosophy but like any other FO in sports, it doesn't share that readily with the public. The recent contractual trends seem to be either very long term to bring down the AAV OR  1 / 1+1 deals so this FO seems to be making similar decisions with a long term deal for Buxton, a long term offer for Correa and a bunch of short term deals and trades.  

What I am curious about is what is their plan for the starting pitchers, as there a lot of them (Mahle, Maeda and Gray) have deals up after next season. It is tough to intuit what they are looking to do past 2023 but whatever the plan is, I doubt it is a "road to nowhere". 

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I really don't understand your argument.....they shouldn't sign an elite player because everyone else was hurt last year and they didn't win? Like, then, don't sign any FA? What is your argument? How else would you like them so spend the money this year, given NO ONE is left in FA? What are you arguing?

My simple point is why should they spend nearly 25% of their budget on one person even though he probably still won't help the Twins make the playoffs?  And to answer your last question, why do they have to spend their remaining budget on additional players?  How about following the Atlanta model and offer extensions to players they already have?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

My simple point is why should they spend nearly 25% of their budget on one person even though he probably still won't help the Twins make the playoffs?  And to answer your last question, why do they have to spend their remaining budget on additional players?  How about following the Atlanta model and offer extensions to players they already have?

Who would you extend? To be clear, you don't think this team is very good, but they should extend people? 

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am so tired of commenting on articles and stories like this.  

Then don't. 

 

Problem solved. 

[The_Phantom]

18 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am so tired of commenting on articles and stories like this.  The Twins didn't sign anybody, so they have no focus, no direction, the FO sucks, torch the owner...

1) Stop assuming efforts aren't made.
2) Stop assuming the Twins aren't willing to spend money on a particular player.
3) Stop assuming they should be in on every FA on the market
4) Stop assuming every FA wants to come to MN

Stop saying there is no plan. 

I left only the parts I wanted to respond to. 
 
1. There’s a plethora of evidence that efforts aren’t made. Other teams miss out on deals and then we hear these huge offers they made , or we at least hear a legitimate reason the deal fell through. Most of the time after a player signs we just hear “the twins were never really close” or in the case of Correa we DID see an actual offer and the numbers weren’t close.

 2. this is redundant for 1.

3. Nobody is assuming that. Nobody. I don’t know a single person who thought the twins should legitimately go after Aaron Judge or Bryce Harper. Why? We have outfielders, and at the type of Harper also had DH types. Those are mega contract guys at positions the twins didn’t need. People DO think twins should spend more when it’s an obvious position of need, and there is plenty of space in the payroll.

4. This is 1000000% not a problem. The problem is the opposite, actually. I have lost track of how many times the twins miss on a free agent that signed a reasonable deal and the twins fanbase copium is “free agents don’t want to come to Minnesota…” “it’s too cold here for guys to want to come” “it’s not a well known city”  it is ALWAYS the excuse that Minnesota isn’t where guys want to go. If that’s true it’s because Minnesota doesn’t spend money and, whether you want to see it or not, has no direction. Minneapolis is gorgeous and has fantastic summer weather. Stop playing the victim card, it’s the most overused thing by this fanbase.   
 
And the reason everyone says there’s no plan is there is no plan. The evidence, again, is abundant. You sign a guy like Correa who everyone fully admits they knew was a one year deal with injury safety nets… and yet after signing that you trade for two injured starting pitchers and Emilio pagan, and call it a day. Who, by the way, nobody talks about the fact that the paddack and pagan deal fell into the twins lap every single bit as much as Carlos Correa did. The Mets were offered literally the exact same deal, and turned it down because of injury issues. And so the padres called up the twins and they said “sure!”

 
the pitching situation also undeniably proves there is no plan. You make a blanket policy to pull pitchers early (even though there is a lot of reason that’s a bad idea which I’m not going to go into now… I’m just gonna say whether you agree with it or not, pitchers don’t go deep in ballgames) but their entire bullpen is built on guys that they sign on minor league deals and just pray to the baseball gods that one of them turns into a miracle. 
 
They make random moves that don’t help anything, and even worse they wait until the last minute and do it via trade. Trading depletes your farm system, and now that the twins have traded for so many injured or mediocre players, becuase they had 2 years of control left, the twins have a bottom 10 farm system.

 
the reason everyone is upset with this team is that they’re in disaster mode, top to bottom. If you don’t want to see comments and articles like this anymore, realize the twins desperately need a new front office with vision and direction. Not just a couple guys who think they’re smart than the game (who hired a manager with the same mentality)

[terrydactyls]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who would you extend? To be clear, you don't think this team is very good, but they should extend people? 

Thanks for man-splaining what I said.  But what I actually said was that they weren't a serious playoff contender.  And, as for extensions, how about Miranda and Duran?  And if Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, etc. prove to be solid, extend them before next season.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

My simple point is why should they spend nearly 25% of their budget on one person even though he probably still won't help the Twins make the playoffs?  And to answer your last question, why do they have to spend their remaining budget on additional players?  How about following the Atlanta model and offer extensions to players they already have?

Correa only represents 25% of payroll if the team does not spend anywhere near their payroll capacity.  If they only were willing to spend $85M should we accept the argument he would be one-third of payroll?   Of course not, the whole idea of this metric is to measure the impact of a single player’s salary on the teams ability to fill out a roster.  In other words, their capacity to spend.  Therefore, it should be measured against their payroll capacity not actual spending.

He would be 25% if they only spend $110M with the contract they were reported to have offered.  If we measure against an estimated capacity of $150M, he represents 18%.  Do they have more or less capacity to spend on other players when they are at $110M (25%) or at $150M where he would represent 19%.  Obviously, they would have $40M available with him representing 25% of payroll.   That’s why this metric needs to be calculated against payroll capacity.  The percentage makes no sense at a random point below payroll capacity. Obviously, capacity varies based on revenue swings so it’s always an estimate.
 

[SoylentWill]

Talking Heads "Road to Nowhere" is a banger.

[hitterscount]

21 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am so tired of commenting on articles and stories like this.  The Twins didn't sign anybody, so they have no focus, no direction, the FO sucks, torch the owner...

1) Stop assuming efforts aren't made.
2) Stop assuming the Twins aren't willing to spend money on a particular player.
3) Stop assuming they should be in on every FA on the market
4) Stop assuming every FA wants to come to MN

The Twins have a boatload of talent coming off of injuries, they upgraded at catcher, got a placeholder replacement for Correa, made the decision to go with MIranda at 3B, and picked up another viable piece in the OF.

Stop saying there is no plan. Stop saying everyone is dumb or cheap.

Just say you don't agree with the plan currently being taken.

I don't agree with the current plan or the last 4-5 plans... if you can call them plans. 

[hitterscount]

Looks like the article has touched a nerve with many. I feel it's fair to question the direction this organization is heading. No doubt owners are not a charity and are in this to make a profit. But us as fans show up to and watch the games based on the product placed before us. 

The current plan is really hard to get excited about. What is this teams strength(s) as of today?  They are relying on position players that have had 2-3 years or more of injury issues to suddenly get healthy and have career years. They low ball Correa who was a priority and pivot to a 1-year contract with a guy with a career  .avg of ,199  

The organization has a history of dumpster diving to fill out the rotation., signing some really bad arms. Many of them based on 1-year contracts.  Watching Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Archer. etc...  getting shelled start after start is kind of, well not fun.  

My point is what the hell is the plan? What has the FO done that brings some hope. What moves have been made that leads us to believe that we can compete for a playoff spot? What makes me think if we were to reach the playoffs that there is enough talent not to be swept for the umpteenth time? 

I would love to see a plan that makes this team fun to watch... even if there are some growing pains. The Cardinals and Rays can do it in smaller markets, just have not witnessed it here.   

[sun]

With all due respect, the Twins road to nowhere is only a figment of the author's imagination. Every MLB season is a road to somewhere being the post season. The only problem is that road is not finished yet. Sometimes they need to make some road improvements or new route connections or build a bridge, but I can assured you that every contract leads to somewhere. Just because some folks don't like it or don't know what to think about it doesn't mean that the Twins aren't breaking new ground. In 2023 Joey Gallo may play as good as Roger Maris ever did.. If he does then maybe he'll get resigned, and if he doesn't then he can go play in Japan. Maybe Gallo will hit 30+ HR's and make up for Sano being MIA last year. 

If Gallo doesn't end up hitting HR's then someone else on the team will. That's the way that team chemistry works. Roads are expensive to complete and require a lot of advanced planning.

[PDX Twin]

18 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They on the same road Chicago was on not so long ago which is the same road every team travels with the exception of ultra-high revenue teams.  This road could lead to nowhere, but I like the odds of it leading somewhere pretty good and this time the trip has a good chance of remaining somewhere good for quite a few years.

Not to mention Houston, who parlayed a few years of very high draft picks into a long spell of contention and championships. It wasn't all banging on trash cans.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Thanks for man-splaining what I said.  But what I actually said was that they weren't a serious playoff contender.  And, as for extensions, how about Miranda and Duran?  And if Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, etc. prove to be solid, extend them before next season.

No one is extending pitchers with five years of control left. 

[Riverbrian]

Does anyone know how many assistants, coaches, scouts, analysts are employed by the Twins?

How many people work under Falvey on the baseball operation side?

Does anyone know?  If nobody knows exactly... I'll take a ball park estimate.

I'd absolutely like to know. Hopefully someone can help me out.

[Elliot]

 

"One-year deals are an admission of fault."

I think a better definition is that they are an admission of need.  As hard as it is to believe, if everyone is healthy the Twins have a roster crunch problem rather than a need for additional FA's. They appear set at C for a few years. 1B should belong to a healthy productive Kiriloff, backed up by Arraez and Gallo. 2B is Polanco with Arraez and Gordon in reserve.; 3B is Miranda's to lose and he will be given a full year to prove it. Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer back him up. Farmer starts the year at SS, but everyone is hoping for that to become Lewis by midyear.  The outfield will be Buxton flanked by Kepler and Larnach. Gallo, Celestino, Gordon, and Garlick open the year as reserves. Wallner is ready as well.  DH will be filled primarily by Gallo and Arraez,  In addition, the AFL gave us a glimpse of what might soon be with Julien and Martin. Martin by the way is my pick to be the Twins surprise success story at the MLB level. Lee could appear at the major league level soon as well. These 3 all have questions concerning their future defensive homes, but have come up as middle infielders and appear to have the athletic ability to be decent defenders. Their defensive questions are much different than those of Rooker and other past prospects.

I know that the assumption of health is risky, but the fact is, if healthy these players all have legitimate abilities to become solid MLB players, in some cases much more. This is where 1 year deals come in. The Gallo deal is the type that fits the needs of the team at this time. A multi-year FA contract could force Enlow type decisions with some of those mentioned above. If health and performance of the current young players is positive, then Gallo can be allowed to walk at year's end, or released/traded during the year.

[Reptevia]

On 1/6/2023 at 11:51 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am so tired of commenting on articles and stories like this.  The Twins didn't sign anybody, so they have no focus, no direction, the FO sucks, torch the owner...

1) Stop assuming efforts aren't made.
2) Stop assuming the Twins aren't willing to spend money on a particular player.
3) Stop assuming they should be in on every FA on the market
4) Stop assuming every FA wants to come to MN

The Twins have a boatload of talent coming off of injuries, they upgraded at catcher, got a placeholder replacement for Correa, made the decision to go with MIranda at 3B, and picked up another viable piece in the OF.

Stop saying there is no plan. Stop saying everyone is dumb or cheap.

Just say you don't agree with the plan currently being taken.

Whoa, whoa, just a minute!  
1.  No one is saying efforts weren’t made. 
2. It’s not an “assumption” when there are literally decades of history backing up the point. 
3. Again, no one said they should be in on every FA.

4. One of the main reason players don’t want to come here is because they don’t spend money or win in the playoffs. 
The Twins do NOT have a “boatload “ of talent coming off injuries!  They have a bunch of prospects coming off injury that may or may not be successful MLB players… one day.   They “upgraded” at catcher?  ANY catcher signed would be an upgrade. (I hope he works out, but no one should be pretending he’s a starter). They got a placeholder for Ss. Again, no one is pretending Farmer is a starter. He is “place holding for a rookie coming off his 2nd ACL surgery. He may or may not recover well enough to ever play SS competently. Given the Twins history, Lee is years away from being in the lineup. (Gotta guard that service time!)

This isn’t you saying tomato and us saying tomatto. It’s us being realistic and you being a rose-colored glasses homer. (Not that there’s anything wrong with either position). I do think there is a plan. I think the plan is to play .500 ball and hope we get lucky, same as it ever was. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/6/2023 at 12:51 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am so tired of commenting on articles and stories like this.  The Twins didn't sign anybody, so they have no focus, no direction, the FO sucks, torch the owner...

1) Stop assuming efforts aren't made.
2) Stop assuming the Twins aren't willing to spend money on a particular player.
3) Stop assuming they should be in on every FA on the market
4) Stop assuming every FA wants to come to MN

The Twins have a boatload of talent coming off of injuries, they upgraded at catcher, got a placeholder replacement for Correa, made the decision to go with MIranda at 3B, and picked up another viable piece in the OF.

Stop saying there is no plan. Stop saying everyone is dumb or cheap.

Just say you don't agree with the plan currently being taken.

Completely agree:

I never get down on the FO as I’ve stated there’s 25 other teams in as much turmoil every year…….every year.

Do we all really think that nobody in our organization, FO, sees the possible FA signings…..not dummies………they know what they’ve been told they can spend or what they should ask for in budget!

Gotta admit, I do disagree on what appears to be our path forward with Maeda as a starter - no FA starters signed (Cueto/Wacha still there for depth) when there has been opportunity - no Relievers signed via FA & still 4-5 available. Leaning on López & Pagan makes me feel sick but I’m not a talent scout, only a fan for 50 plus years and rely on eye test & results (not what may lead to results someday due to apparent analytics)…….Brad Hand (or similar) & Michael Fulmer replacing these two seems obvious and very affordable!

Very comfortable with SS now & in future. For the most part, I like our starting pitching and the depth we have coming!!

 Vazquez is a big upgrade over Sánchez.

We had to play our 7th & 8th Outfielders in the organization last year for last couple months…….Larnach, Kepler, Kirilof, Buxton, & Garlick were all hurt …..we had to start Celestino & Cave repeatedly. Polanco was out. Ober - Winder - Maeda - Gray - Mahle - Paddock……,all out for some or all of the season, all back to start or at some point in ‘23……….am echoing your comments about “…..boatload of talent coming off injury…”……we don’t need to reload or tear things down, nor do we need a $30 million SS. Tweak the staff with 2-3 FA signings & with a trade of some high potential/talented guys like KEPLER - CELESTINO - LÓPEZ - PAGAN.

Can win 90 plus games with a little positive action……efforts going forward.

Go TWINS!

[ashbury]

19 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

When I face decisions in my personal life.. I often ask... What would Ozzy do? ?

And then do the opposite, right?

 

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

My simple point is why should they spend nearly 25% of their budget on one person even though he probably still won't help the Twins make the playoffs?  And to answer your last question, why do they have to spend their remaining budget on additional players?  How about following the Atlanta model and offer extensions to players they already have?

Maybe extend Polanco with decent performance? Extend 2 or 3 pitchers due up for FA with decent performance through June. Get a couple FA relievers now and we can be in the playoffs this year!!

[sun]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Does anyone know how many assistants, coaches, scouts, analysts are employed by the Twins?

How many people work under Falvey on the baseball operation side?

Does anyone know?  If nobody knows exactly... I'll take a ball park estimate.

I'd absolutely like to know. Hopefully someone can help me out.

One website says that the 'Twins have 270 front office employees, and the team does have a front office directory listing many of them. But the people that you're asking about would be included in the up to 500 total employees mentioned on a business website.  If you really want to know then contact the front office and ask them. https://incfact.com/company/minnesotatwins-minneapolis-mn/

https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

And then do the opposite, right?

 

Yeah... I was at the Alamo last August.

San Antonio has no problem with me returning. 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, sun said:

One website says that the 'Twins have 270 front office employees, and the team does have a front office directory listing many of them. But the people that you're asking about would be included in the up to 500 total employees mentioned on a business website.  If you really want to know then contact thefront office and ask them. https://incfact.com/company/minnesotatwins-minneapolis-mn/

https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

Thank You. Much appreciated. 

Hard to say what the exact number is but on that 2nd link you provided. Just head counting the best I could, If you factor in the coaches and scouts throughout organization that don't appear to be listed. It looks like over 100 employees on the baseball operations side of things. 

I wonder what they all do? Does whatever they do go somewhere or does it just sit on a desk never to be reviewed? 

It is being suggested by some that they don't have a plan.

If they don't have a plan, I'm really concerned about that. 100 employees that would be tripping over each other without a plan. Multiple people working on the same projects while other things get ignored. 

If they don't have a plan... they should come up with one quick. 

 

[sun]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Thank You. Much appreciated. 

Hard to say what the exact number is but on that 2nd link you provided. Just head counting the best I could, If you factor in the coaches and scouts throughout organization that don't appear to be listed. It looks like over 100 employees on the baseball operations side of things. 

I wonder what they all do? Does whatever they do go somewhere or does it just sit on a desk never to be reviewed? 

It is being suggested by some that they don't have a plan.

If they don't have a plan, I'm really concerned about that. 100 employees that would be tripping over each other without a plan. Multiple people working on the same projects while other things get ignored. 

If they don't have a plan... they should come up with one quick. 

 

I don't know if you're aware that the Twins built & share a baseball academy complex with the Phillies in the Dominican Republic. IIRC Duran passed through there.  https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/minnesota-twins-open-baseball-academy-in-dominican-republic

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, sun said:

I don't know if you're aware that the Twins built & share a baseball academy complex with the Phillies in the Dominican Republic. IIRC Duran passed through there.  https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/minnesota-twins-open-baseball-academy-in-dominican-republic

Must have been the Phillies planning that one out. ?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 1/7/2023 at 2:01 PM, Reptevia said:

Whoa, whoa, just a minute!  
1.  No one is saying efforts weren’t made. 
2. It’s not an “assumption” when there are literally decades of history backing up the point. 
3. Again, no one said they should be in on every FA.

4. One of the main reason players don’t want to come here is because they don’t spend money or win in the playoffs. 
The Twins do NOT have a “boatload “ of talent coming off injuries!  They have a bunch of prospects coming off injury that may or may not be successful MLB players… one day.   They “upgraded” at catcher?  ANY catcher signed would be an upgrade. (I hope he works out, but no one should be pretending he’s a starter). They got a placeholder for Ss. Again, no one is pretending Farmer is a starter. He is “place holding for a rookie coming off his 2nd ACL surgery. He may or may not recover well enough to ever play SS competently. Given the Twins history, Lee is years away from being in the lineup. (Gotta guard that service time!)

This isn’t you saying tomato and us saying tomatto. It’s us being realistic and you being a rose-colored glasses homer. (Not that there’s anything wrong with either position). I do think there is a plan. I think the plan is to play .500 ball and hope we get lucky, same as it ever was. 

They have an almost full starting rotation coming off the DL, I would call that a boatload...

I don't think I have been accused of being a "rose-colored glasses homer" in all of my comments.  I am not really defending the FO, more calling out people making wild claims about the FO.  Many to most of the comments made here are based out of anger and/or other emotions.  Even the TD "insiders" only bring a certain level of certainty.  Many, many assumptions are made.

You can't use that type of historical data to account for the actions of this FO.  To say that Terry Ryan wouldn't go after high priced FA is fair, but you can't hold that premise against this FO.

A lot of people jumping on me for my initial comments:

While not as aggressively negative as many of the other posts we have seen here, this article does attempt to attack a process without having all the facts.  I appreciate the time and effort put into writing this post, but it cherry picks contracts to support the stance and uses it as a springboard into why other things did or did not happened.  Show me how 1 year contracts perform as whole.  Show me how 1 year contracts impact other signings by all teams, not just the Twins.  Where is the statistical data to back up your statements. Without that, there is simply no proof or justification in anything, just a lot of conjecture.

The bottom line is that all of us, myself included, that think they know what is going on in the Twins FO really don't know.  Period.  Nobody here at TD knows.  I don't need to know who the sources are to know that everything that comes out of the FO, either publicly or "leaked" needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  What are the motives?

Lastly, TD is a place to share opinions.  I get that.  But the amount of vitriol and negativity on this site is overwhelming.  As I was told elsewhere, if I don't like it stop posting.  I have slowed my reading here because the articles keep retreading the same approach or the same conjecture.  I have slowed my commenting as well.  I don't need to comment on the two or three follow-up stories about a signing after I have already posted on the first one.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 1/6/2023 at 7:34 PM, Paul Walerius said:

Glad someone said it.    What did Dazzle man do to you though?

 

Hey Paul,

Thanks for the comments.  Without going down a huge rabbit hole, I just think that Dan Gladden is an atrocious radio guy.  He still makes multiple errors every game, leaves a ton of dead air time without calling the game, and generally provides little to no insight to the broadcast.  He makes the Twins games unlistenable.  I truly have no clue why he is still part of the broadcast team.

[Reptevia]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Hey Paul,

Thanks for the comments.  Without going down a huge rabbit hole, I just think that Dan Gladden is an atrocious radio guy.  He still makes multiple errors every game, leaves a ton of dead air time without calling the game, and generally provides little to no insight to the broadcast.  He makes the Twins games unlistenable.  I truly have no clue why he is still part of the broadcast team.

Agreed. The second worst pro sports announcer behind Paul Allen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Quote

They were able to nail down a Byron Buxton contract, although they seemed disappointed that they couldn’t trade him to Philadelphia for scraps beforehand.

Brutal.