Offseason Status Update: New Year, Same Old

[Nick Nelson]

The calendar has flipped to 2023 and still the Twins have done nothing to meaningfully improve their roster while free agency has run dry.

They now turn their attention to the trade market in an effort to salvage this wayward offseason and ignite any semblance of enthusiasm within their fanbase. 

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

 

The lingering storyline and elephant in the room – for Minnesota and MLB at large – is Carlos Correa's situation with the Mets. The shortstop agreed to terms with Steve Cohen and New York more than two weeks ago, but still no contract has been signed as the Mets – like the Giants before them – ran into concerns in Correa's physical.

It's a bizarre situation that grows weirder with each passing day. There's been almost no public information shared about the progression of Correa's negotiations with the Mets, other than they were "expected to pick up again soon" as of Monday. At least, up until Jon Heyman reported on Thursday evening that the two sides were "gaining momentum" toward a deal.

"The latest word," Heyman writes, "is that while the main terms – $315M over 12 years – may be unlikely to change much, if at all, the Mets have made clear they are intent on diminishing their risk via important language additions and/or alterations." 

While the odds of Correa's original $315 million fully guaranteed deal coming to fruition now seem small, there remains a general sense that he and New York will ultimately settle, and perhaps soon. (Heyman suggested that it could happen by the end of the week.) 

Even if the market opens up, it seems unlikely the Twins will now take the long-term plunge on a player whose risk level has publicly skyrocketed. Given how many weighty injury concerns already control their fate going forward, it's debatable whether they should.

With that covered, let's catch up on where things stand for the Twins as we turn our attention to the home stretch of the offseason, with pitchers and catchers reporting in just six weeks.

Catching Up on Twins Offseason Moves

To say the front office's work so far this winter has been underwhelming would be an understatement. Coming off a third-place season, there's been nothing resembling a shakeup or significant improvement thus far.

Here's a quick recap of notable moves up to this point:

• Acquired INF Kyle Farmer in trade for RHP Casey Legumina
• Traded 3B Gio Urshela to Angels for RHP Alejandro Hidalgo
• Signed free agent C Christian Vazquez for 3 years and $30M
• Signed free agent OF Joey Gallo for 1 year and $11M

Aaand, that's it! The Twins addressed one clear need – signing Vazquez to fill their gaping catcher vacancy – and have otherwise just sort of shifted things around on the fringes, building necessary depth in some cases (Farmer and Vazquez) and oddly unnecessary depth in others (Gallo).

What comes next? Well, speaking of oddly unnecessary depth...

Twins Reportedly Showing Interest in Free Agent Starter Wacha

As usual, the Twins whiffed on the upper echelon of pitching free agency, leaving them to peruse what's left here in January and February. According to The Athletic, the club has shown interest in one of the best remaining starting pitcher options available: right-hander Michael Wacha, who played for the Red Sox in 2022.

On the surface, he seems like a worthy target to upgrade the rotation. Last year in Boston, he went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP – Sonny Gray numbers, if not better! The problem, and the reason Wacha remains on the market, is that every underlying metric points to significantly underperforming those numbers and embodying the same mediocre starter he's long been.

Wacha has a career 4.05 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Last year his FIP checked in at 4.14, nearly a full run higher than his ERA. His K/9 rate plummeted to match a career low at 7.4. 

He fits the Twins mold as a strike-throwing righty with a low-90s fastball and great changeup, but Wacha is a thoroughly average pitcher with minimal upside at this stage of his career.

 

 

I'm not saying he's useless. And I'm not saying the Twins couldn't use rotation depth. But it's unclear what he really adds other than redundancy, and it'll come at an inflated cost. For the front office to sign him would very much carry a "well, what else are we gonna spend it on at this point" vibe.

At this rate it's getting harder to disagree with Matthew Taylor's assertion from mid-December: the Twins front office played themselves by watching every impact free agent come off the board during their futile pursuit of Correa, and are now left with an extreme uphill battle to put together even a satisfactory offseason.

The only way to reverse their fortunes and rejuvenate fan confidence, it seems, would be with at least one high-profile trade. 

Trade Season Is Upon Us

With free agency cleared out, front offices like Minnesota's must now turn to the trade market in search of upgrades. We tend to see talent swaps pick up quite a bit during this stage of the offseason.

Earlier this winter, the Twins were reportedly discussing a Jorge Lopez trade with the Marlins. It's possible those two teams will revisit talks. Of course, Max Kepler is also known to be on the block – especially with Gallo now in tow – but there's been surprisingly little chatter regarding his market.

One possibility we sadly must consider is that the Twins will pivot into a short rebuild or "step back," seeking to flip some of their short-term assets for future talent as they stare ahead to steep uncertainty in 2023. 

Dan Hayes posits that with free agent pitching picked over, "Gray could be a perfect sell-high trade piece to a team looking to add a good starting pitcher," suggesting essentially that Wacha could be his replacement.

It's one path, I guess. An incredibly uninspiring path that would leave me and plenty of other Twins fans rightfully disgruntled. 

Roster and Payroll Projection: v4

Little has changed since the last update in mid-December, except that I've added the versatile Willi Castro – signed to a minor-league contract just before the New Year – as a utilityman to round out the bench. The 25-year-old has 300 games of major-league experience in Detroit, including 112 last year, where he played every position except first base and catcher.

With his addition, the Twins could basically field an Opening Day roster as comprised below, and it wouldn't be embarrassing. But, it also wouldn't be exciting or energizing for an embattled fan base, nor would it fit the MO of a front office that likes to (eventually) rattle the cage. I suspect we'll see this mix shaken up in a major way before long. 

 

 

 

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I don't think FO played themselves. In the history of the franchise, all the FOs combined have signed one big time deal, and he was traded after two years. This is on ownership, not the FO. 

[sorney]

I think the one thing that kills me most about the lack of anything substantial this offseason, is that the FO seems to be punting on another one of Buxton's prime years.  To me, that is the biggest offense.  I get he is hurt often, but when he is not, he is a game changer in his prime.  Last year sucked., and he was 28.  He is 29 this year, and punting that season means they will have literally wasted his best years.  That sucks.

[RJA]

Making trades is no way to build a winning ballclub because to get someone good you need to trade someone good, or young prospects.  Trades are great IF you are one player away.  IMHO, we aren't.  If we aren't going to be serious bidders in free agency, then we need to play the kids and see what we have.  A year from now, we very likely will be looking to replace Maeda, Mahle and Gray.  We need to see what our young pitchers can do--Varland, SWR, Winder, etc.--because they will have to become the core of our staff going forward.  I am increasingly coming to believe we need to give the kids a chance, take some lumps, and consider a--Shhhhhhhhhh--rebuild:). 

[Steve71]

Latest on Correa is that the lawyers from both sides are trying to hammer out contract language to address the issue with Correa's ankle.  They are clearly working towards resolving the deal and it seems highly probably Correa ends up a Met. 

Time to move on as a Twins fan...

[tony&rodney]

A good MLB team must be able to sign and develop players via the draft and the Latin America route, identify free agents to sign, and acquire players via trade. Using all three avenues is optimal but if a team is able to be superior at a couple of the three options, there is hope. Where are the Twins in these scenarios? A number of general managers and team presidents of player operations have been very aggressive in trading, lost their jobs, and been recycled with other teams. I am wondering what has made Falvey so reticent to pull off a major trade or acquisition using players from their current roster. Perhaps other teams have zero interest in Twins players or maybe the Pohlads dictate more control than seems rational considering their business model. Either way, Twins fans wait and hope to escape the mediocrity that plagued the past two seasons.

[Vanimal46]

Signing Wacha only makes sense if the plan is to trade Gray. Which probably makes sense anyways. Right or wrong, he made public statements that he didn’t like how he was handled with the 5 and fly philosophy. Chances are he’s not gonna sign an extension here. 

I wish I knew what they’re trying to accomplish. Because right now the offense will be worse than last year and they weren’t all that good to begin with. I can see the pitching staff being above average if Gray remains a Twin. But you’re not going to be a contender if you’re league average on offense and pitching. 

[Brandon]

It seems Correa is re-engaging with another team.  That would fix the offseason if the Twins sign him and a reliever.  

[mikelink45]

When all else fails lets think about resigning Correa.  When we had him we finished below 500.  If we resign him we will be below 500 based on the rest of the assembled team.  Right now there is no traction to make a fan really optimistic.

Maybe Gallo can pitch and Pagan can play outfield, Vasquez can out frame the league, and Farmer will be an all-star.

[MplsFan]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Signing Wacha only makes sense if the plan is to trade Gray. Which probably makes sense anyways. Right or wrong, he made public statements that he didn’t like how he was handled with the 5 and fly philosophy. Chances are he’s not gonna sign an extension here. 

I wish I knew what they’re trying to accomplish. Because right now the offense will be worse than last year and they weren’t all that good to begin with. I can see the pitching staff being above average if Gray remains a Twin. But you’re not going to be a contender if you’re league average on offense and pitching. 

This is spot on imo.

I looked at that v4 roster and squinting I was like “this could be ok” but then I remembered last year and yeah… it wasn’t that great

[Thebigalguy]

I look into my crystal ball and see the Twins exploding with young players like the Guardians did last year. Forget about stinking trades and signing what's left of free agents. We're good to go. The only caveat is health. Keep the boys of summer healthy and I'm liking what the team has in place.

[joefish]

We need an ACE. Duhran would like to be a starter. Give him the job.

[Doctor Gast]

Our INF stinks. Defensively, Farmer & Polanco are fine and hopefully Miranda can hold his own. But if he isn't or if someone is injured we're in deep trouble.  An INF of Miranda  (3B) Polanco (SS)  Gordon or Arraez (2B). Great many AAA INFs are better.

Offensively our INF is great as long as we face LHPs, which is less than 10% of the time. How about the other 90+% of the time? Our quality INF depth is non existing. An above avg. fielding SS who can hit RHPs is our greatest need. If we don't address this properly we can write off this season before it starts.

 

[Jeff_M]

I'd be proud to root for that starting lineup, except it'd be good if they can get something for Kepler.  If they don't, hoping shiftless baseball will improve his RISP in close games (don't have actual stat for this, but observationally it seemed pretty bad the last few years).

[Jeff_M]

On 1/5/2023 at 6:41 PM, Vanimal46 said:

if the plan is to trade Gray. Which probably makes sense anyways. Right or wrong, he made public statements that he didn’t like how he was handled with the 5 and fly philosophy.

This "5 & fly" is a quite frustrating flaw in the Twins overall strategy!  So many games last year, Gray and Ryan, & probably several others were pulled when they had several more gettable outs left in the tank. 

I say give the guys a chance, at least over the first few starts of the season.  Let 'em prove it, either way.  Doing so would put faith in the players' ability, and not strict adherence to some mindless algorithm or spreadsheet formula. 

You can see on better-coached teams (think Francona last season, for example, maybe Showalter also) when it "feels" like the pitcher was on a roll or could squeeze out of a jam, they leave the guy in and it pays off.  Whereas, the Twins or other teams with a quick hook (Rays, Yankees, probably most other teams actually) bring in some bullpen piece, supposedly a favorable matchup, who quickly gives up the bases-clearing XBH.  Obvious exception is postseason, but regular season should give the nod to the starter unless it's someone like Archer, Odorizzi, Syndergaard, HIll, Greinke, etc. who's got no business going past the 5th.