The Over/Unders on Three Key Planks for ‘23

[Nashvilletwin]

The core of the Twin’s strategy in ‘23 certainly includes fewer injuries, rebound campaigns and/or ongoing improvement throughout most of the roster.  However, it appears that for this FO and many Twins fans much of their hopes rest on three key planks: namely, Buxton’s health (how many games he plays), the pitching triumvirate of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (how many innings they pitch), and the renaissance of Gallo (how he slashes). It’s a fair supposition given that without more than a modicum of success from at least two, if not all, of those three, this Twins team will likely struggle to compete for a pennant, let alone a Central Division title.

Although fair, is the supposition actually likely? For each of these three planks, what would a) define success (i.e. what could realistically be considered a very positive result and/or what makes the FO look smart) and  b) what should we actually expect (i.e. the over/under)?  Here’s one take:

Buxton Games Played

Success: 100 in CF, 30 as DH (second most ever)

Over/Under: 70 in CF, 20 as DH (essentially average of ‘16, ‘19, and ‘22)

Gray, Mahle and Maeda Innings Pitched

Success: 390 (essentially 140 from both Gray and Mahle and 110 from Maeda)

Over/Under: 330 (115 from both Gray and Mahle and 100 from Maeda)

Gallo Production

Success: .230/.350/.450 - OPS: .800 (essentially his 2021 season)

Over/Under: .200/.290/.420 - OPS: .710 (better than his 2022 season)

Twins fans know that, especially for mid-market teams, it might take several players having solid, if not career years, to win playoff games. However, would “success” re each of these three planks be enough to catapult the Twins into contention? Probably,  especially with decent years from other key players. How likely is it that all three, are reached? Low in all probability. The point is that unless a couple of, if not several other, Twins have truly breakout years, even just hitting these three over/unders is not likely to be a winning strategy for ‘23.

Hope springs eternal. The FO has pursued a strategy dependent on a few key bets or hoping for breakout years from others.  Hey, it’s a strategy and it was put in place with Mahle’s acquisition last year and a reaction bet on Gallo after Correa moved on.  We shall see if it’s a good strategy or even how long the FO/ownership stays committed to it.