Three Free Agent Outfield Upgrades for the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s roster is full of corner outfield options, but most of those players are left-handed. Can the team find a way to upgrade the outfield with a veteran bat?

Image courtesy of Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last two seasons, the Twins have used Kyle Garlick as the team’s primary right-handed hitting outfielder. He has hit .233/.283/.446 (.728) with a 103 OPS+ in 102 games. Garlick performed even better when put into favorable match-ups. Against left-handed pitching, he posted an .805 OPS with seven extra-base hits in 74 at-bats last season. Garlick has dealt with injuries over the last two seasons, so multiple free-agent outfielders might be an upgrade in the outfield. 

AJ Pollock
2022 Stats: .245/.292/.389 (.681), 26 2B, 14 HR, 91 OPS+, 138 G
Pollock has been a strong offensive player with a career 113 OPS+, including a 133 OPS+ from 2020-21. Most of his defensive innings have come in center field, but he has shifted to left field in recent years. Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo are penciled in as the team’s starters in center field and right field, which could allow Pollock to slide into left field. Even in an offensive down year, he dominated lefties with a .935 OPS and 20 extra-base hits in 126 at-bats. The Twins have three young outfielders projected to get significant playing time this season, so Pollock would have to agree to a backup role. 

Andrew McCutchen
2022 Stats: .237/.316/.384 (.700), 25 2B, 17 HR, 99 OPS+, 134 G
McCutchen is well known as a five-time All-Star and a former NL MVP, but he hasn’t been that caliber of player in multiple seasons. He spent 2022 with the Milwaukee Brewers and finished with an OPS+ below 100 for the first time in his career. Over 60% of his starts came as a designated hitter, and the Twins like to be able to rotate players through that role. For this reason, he might make him less of a fit for the club. His OPS (.738) was 53 points higher when facing left-handed pitching. His veteran presence would be a welcome addition to the clubhouse, but he might need to be willing to take on a lesser role on the field. 

Trey Mancini
2022 Stats: .239/.319/.391 (.710), 23 2B, 18 HR, 101 OPS+, 143 G
Mancini started the 2022 season strongly with a 113 OPS+ in 92 games for the Orioles. The Astros acquired him for their World Series run, but he struggled after the deal. In 51 games, he hit .176/.258/.364 (.622) with seven doubles and eight home runs. Houston used him sparingly in the postseason as he went 1-for-21 (.048 BA) with eight strikeouts. Last season, Mancini had reverse splits with an OPS that was 88 points lower against lefties. He has posted almost identical splits against righties (.786 OPS) and lefties (.790 OPS) for his career. Mancini had a solid start to the 2022 season, so a team adding him will be looking for him to return to his previous form. 

Entering the offseason, I planned a perfect offseason for the Twins, and little has gone favorably for the club. One of the pieces of that plan was to add a right-handed power bat to the bench. I identified Mancini as a target for the team, and he might have the highest upside. However, McCutchen and Pollock can provide an upgrade compared to Garlick if put into the right situation. 

Do any of these players make sense for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[D.C Twins]

Another outfielder is the least of the Twin's worries. 

Now why did they sign another left-handed hitting corner outfielder that is a strike out machine? That would be a fair but irrelevant question because it is a done deal. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Another outfielder is the least of the Twin's worries. 

Now why did sign another left-handed hitting corner outfielder that is a strike out machine? That would be a fair but irrelevant question because it is a done deal. 

What do you call an elephant who doesn't make a difference? An irrelephant. 

[Johnny Ringo]

McCutchen is one of my favorite players of recent years and by all accounts a great guy, but the sun is setting on his terrific career. Doesn't if make sense to trade one of our seemingly endless supply of left-handed hitting corner outfielders for a young counterpart who is right-handed? 

However, if that trade capital is needed to get a quality shortstop, I would prioritize that. I am sure San Diego would part with Park at the right price. I wish people would let go of the "Lewis will be ready to go by June" mantra. The truth is we have no idea if Royce is a major leaguer let alone a long-term solution at shortstop. If he becomes the man than we have a high-class problem. But quality shortstops can always be flipped if Park becomes superfluous.    

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Sorry guys... Gallo is not penciled in at RF.  At the moment he is penciled in at LF.  Kepler is still your RF.  He will be until he is no longer here.

Still waiting to hear anything other than conjecture he is on the trading block... 

[HerbieFan]

pass...

[Riverbrian]

We need another bat. A decent one. I don't like the idea of skimming off the slim prospect pile to trade for one and I'd rather not tread water by trading an existing hitter to gain a different hitter and I'd like to keep the young starting pitching depth that we have. 

So out of the FA's available... I'll take Mancini. 

For 1B and DH with the occasional OF when necessary.  

Deepen that lineup. 

[miller761]

An outfield of Gallo, Buxton and Kepler against right handed pitching looks good to me. Great defense, athletic and good speed on the basepaths. Everyone picks apart Gallo's numbers but the fact is his career numbers at Target Field are good. Will that translate to a full season remains to be seen but he also can be flipped at the trade deadline. The 2 biggest causes of our collapse were blown saves and depth last year. So what if Larnach or any other younger player has to start the season in the minor leagues. Those are decisions all good clubs have to make. Let the FO do their job and we can judge them at the end of the season. To do that now or say they should have done this or that does not carry any weight at present time.

[mikelink45]

Our OF is a mess - if they think that they have solved it I can understand why we are now a 500 or less team.  Is there a team with an OF that is too right handed?  

[Doctor Gast]

As you said we have a ton of corner OF/ 1B/ DH lefty bats. It won't be fair to sign anyone for only LHPs. FO didn't even think it was fair to use Garlick in that role, so they used him too often against RHPs. But that's the only time to use him, that's his role so stick to it. 

When we need him we bring him up & put him on the 40 man, when we're done with him, we DFA him & wait for him to clear wavers. IMO it's not worth it to try to upgrade from Garlick. 

One area  we could focus for RH power bat is Cruz. He'll be there for LHPs & he can hit righties as well. Arraez & Buxton could still share time at DH.

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

We need another bat. A decent one. I don't like the idea of skimming off the slim prospect pile to trade for one and I'd rather not tread water by trading an existing hitter to gain a different hitter and I'd like to keep the young starting pitching depth that we have. 

So out of the FA's available... I'll take Mancini. 

For 1B and DH with the occasional OF when necessary.  

Deepen that lineup. 

I agree with Riverbrian on the concept. We desperately need to deepen the lineup unless this year's plan is the hope that multiple inexperienced players will step up (Larnach, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Wallner) and/or continue up (Mirnda, Gordon). Lots of "ifs" there. We could really use a good professional RH hitter. 

The question to me is whether any of those 3 guys actually meets that definition. Pollack is on the downslope, McCutcheon is farther down that slope, and Mancini is a wild card after his huge fade last year. I thought about Nelson Cruz but he fell off the table last year and will be 43 in July.  I guess Mancini is he best veteran option out there but he scares me a little. I just don't see trading Kepler as getting us much more than a decent MLB reliever or a decent prospect or two so that isn't the short term answer for the lineup either.

I'm almost ready to say that we should just go ahead and run with what we have and call 2023 a development year. Hope for 85 wins, be ok with 80 wins, be excited about more than 85, and call for heads to roll with less than 80. It's not what I was hoping for a couple of months ago but maybe ok.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Sorry guys... Gallo is not penciled in at RF.  At the moment he is penciled in at LF.  Kepler is still your RF.  He will be until he is no longer hear.

Is Kepler going deaf?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

7 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Is Kepler going deaf?

Spelling... really?

[RJA]

Well, it is January so here we all are dumpster diving for players that “might” help the Twins.  Hard to get excited about these conversations. 

[DocBauer]

Yes! Please! This has been an ongoing issue for at least 2yrs now. The Twins will face LH pitching something like 25-30% of the time based on starters and bullpens. They need RH help for an OF that leans almost entirely to the port side. 

Pollack and Mancini were my 2nd tier, but they still offer real help. Neither is lousy with the bat, but both beat up on LHP. Pollack is the better OF defensively, while Mancini can play some 1B as well as some corner OF.

Just get one of them. Otherwise, we settle for Garlick and go out and make another trade?

Even McCutchen isn't a horrible idea. His numbers took a slide in 2022, definitely better the year prior, but he was excellent against LHP just a season ago on 2021. We're not asking him to start on a daily basis. We want an occasional OF start, PH, maybe e en DH once in a while. 

[Crackedfungo]

I S H.....No thanks to any and all.  We aren't a rest home for the washed up and "never were's"

[roger]

I don’t understand all the concern with having left handed hitting corner outfielders.

As I look at their starting lineup I see four starters who bat left, Arraez, Gallo, Larnach or AK in left, Keps in right and one of the three guys battling for left as DH.  There are also four who are right handed, the catchers, Farmer at short, Miranda and Buxton.  Polo is switch, so the lineup is perfectly balanced.

So I don’t understand why everyone has a burr under their saddles about the corner guys swinging from the left side.

[Finlander]

I like Jurickson Profar as an option until the young guys are ready. He's a switch hitter, sorry I didn't look up his splits. Not a big bat, but he takes a walk and can hit a bit. Mostly LF these days, but has been versatile defensively. I think he's still only 29 years old too - hard to believe! If not him, I guess I like Mancini for a comeback year out of the three choices from the article.

[old nurse]

I think Garlick has a career OPS+ of 130. Why would you replace him with less?

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Another outfielder is the least of the Twin's worries. 

Now why did they sign another left-handed hitting corner outfielder that is a strike out machine? That would be a fair but irrelevant question because it is a done deal. 

They don’t have one projected regularvoutfielder who they can count on for health or is an established major league or hits over .230.

Larnach-health, unestablished

Kirilloff-health, unestablished

Kepler-Poor offense that hurts the team

Gallo-he may rebound, is a great athlete but hit .160 last year

Buxton-health that cripples his ability to play even close to his ability, Question mark.

Thus I think the Twins need probably 3 outfielders, maybe Mancini, Pollock and Michael A. Taylor. 

Keeping the OF status Quo will risk another losing season. I think Falvey and Levines are going to shake things up with trades.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, roger said:

I don’t understand all the concern with having left handed hitting corner outfielders.

As I look at their starting lineup I see four starters who bat left, Arraez, Gallo, Larnach or AK in left, Keps in right and one of the three guys battling for left as DH.  There are also four who are right handed, the catchers, Farmer at short, Miranda and Buxton.  Polo is switch, so the lineup is perfectly balanced.

So I don’t understand why everyone has a burr under their saddles about the corner guys swinging from the left side.

Roger, I appreciate your thoughts. And truth is, 75% of the time the lineup will face a RHP, so the odds are a lineup leaning LH makes sense.

The issue is those other 25-30% when facing LHP in which the Twins have, for some reason, been inept the past few years. 

POTENTIALLY, young hitters such as Larnach and Kirilloff are solid against same side pitching, but have SSS. Polanco and Arraez, who I love, tend to hang in tough against LHP, but are not as good. Yes, Farmer might help, as well as Jeffers, but we're talking depth and opportunity as it's presented. 

Imagine a LHP pitcher on the mound in the 2nd inning of a game with a runner on base, maybe even in scoring position, how much more comfortable is that pitcher facing a .700 OPS hitter vs one who produces at a .780 clip or better?

Think about a RH hitter facing a LH bullpen arm in the same situation in the 7th or 8th inning? 

It's about depth, being able to stack the lineup appropriately to begin a game, but also having the flexibility to have a RH off the bench that might make a difference without risking "giving an at bat away" scenario. 

Baseball is about matchups. And, unfortunately, the Twins have lost the matchups against LH pitching too much the past few years. More depth, more balance, offers more opportunity for that clutch hit that can add a win or two.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

McCutchen is one of my favorite players of recent years and by all accounts a great guy, but the sun is setting on his terrific career. Doesn't if make sense to trade one of our seemingly endless supply of left-handed hitting corner outfielders for a young counterpart who is right-handed? 

However, if that trade capital is needed to get a quality shortstop, I would prioritize that. I am sure San Diego would part with Park at the right price. I wish people would let go of the "Lewis will be ready to go by June" mantra. The truth is we have no idea if Royce is a major leaguer let alone a long-term solution at shortstop. If he becomes the man than we have a high-class problem. But quality shortstops can always be flipped if Park becomes superfluous.    

I live in Cincinnati - Farmer is a MLB shortstop!! He’s middle of the pack but he can play SS nearly every day for the 2 years he has left on deal, if needed………I agree, Lewis playing about 3-4 weeks total between St. Paul & Mpls last year doesn’t mean he’s going to excel after a 2nd ACL surgery this year…..at least not immediately! Fantasy!! Hoping by end of July he’s ready at some level worth trying with big club.

I like the idea of signing McCutchen……solid D and great doubles guy vs. LH pitching. He displaces Garlick (maybe Walner) in my opinion. We’d be a better club. Better guy on the bench - great energy & a player!! Understood he may have 2 years max left in the tank. Platoon guy and a great RH experienced bat as PH from the bench in situations as well!

VS. LH pitching:

Buxton - McCutchen - Miranda - Vázquez (DH) - Arraez - Polanco - Farmer - Jeffers - Walner

(maybe Garlick is kept & Walner is in St. Paul getting to play every day……. for a few months so we can classify what we think of Gallo’s performance?)

Garlick in left - McCutchen in right - Buxton in CF vs. LH pitching.

McCutchen adds team speed - no real loss in power from Garlick - better & more flexible defensive options - great bench/locker room presence!!! Assuming he may force us to spend an extra $5 - $8 million over Garlick…..very worthwhile. McCutchen makes more sense than breaking Spring Training with Walner - Gallo - Kirilof - Larnach - Gordon as our corner outfield options & all being LH batters!

[dxpavelka]

As I recall, your perfect offseason plan involved signing Mancini for a ridiculously low number.  Yes, I understand he hasn't signed anywhere yet.  Maybe because somebody (we?) are offering him that number.

[Karbo]

13 hours ago, roger said:

I don’t understand all the concern with having left handed hitting corner outfielders.

As I look at their starting lineup I see four starters who bat left, Arraez, Gallo, Larnach or AK in left, Keps in right and one of the three guys battling for left as DH.  There are also four who are right handed, the catchers, Farmer at short, Miranda and Buxton.  Polo is switch, so the lineup is perfectly balanced.

So I don’t understand why everyone has a burr under their saddles about the corner guys swinging from the left side.

Just look at the numbers vs lefties.

[terrydactyls]

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Spelling... really?

Why not?  It only takes a minute to review your work.  And we don't have to guess what you are trying to say.

[Otaknam]

13 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

They don’t have one projected regularvoutfielder who they can count on for health or is an established major league or hits over .230.

Larnach-health, unestablished

Kirilloff-health, unestablished

Kepler-Poor offense that hurts the team

Gallo-he may rebound, is a great athlete but hit .160 last year

Buxton-health that cripples his ability to play even close to his ability, Question mark.

Thus I think the Twins need probably 3 outfielders, maybe Mancini, Pollock and Michael A. Taylor. 

Keeping the OF status Quo will risk another losing season. I think Falvey and Levines are going to shake things up with trades.

I now live in fear of the FO making trades for modest short term success with soon to be free agent players at the expense of long term sustainable development. It’s time the FO admits that last year’s trades were unhelpful and plan for the future. Just don’t trade LEE, Lewis or SWR, as they have potential to be impact players that are always in short supply.

[roger]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Just look at the numbers vs lefties.

Don't need to.  My point is that I want the Twins to have a balanced lineup, four right and four left with one switch does that.  Should be equally good versus both sided pitchers.  If it isn't, then they may need to make some changes of players.

[ashbury]

Can't help feeling that if any of these three guys are actual upgrades (anymore at this stage of their respective careers), we might as well hold a fire sale of our current players with short remaining team control and commence with a full rebuild.

[USAFChief]

17 hours ago, old nurse said:

I think Garlick has a career OPS+ of 130. Why would you replace him with less?

Garlick's career OPS+ is 98.

 

130 against LHP, but less than 200 total PAs.

 

I say the chances he's a 130 OPS+ hitter against lefties going forward is slimmer than my chances of dating a super model.

 

As to the OP, Pollock makes sense. He can cover CF in Buxton's absence too. Personally, I'd be shocked if Gallo plays any CF, I doubt Kepler is still here, and Celestino is a waste of space.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I'm with you Chief except that Celestino may develop into more than a "waste of space" in the future. He needs a full year or close to it in AAA playing CF every day. He turns 24 in a month and has spent the last year and a half trying to survive in the BIgs when he wasn't ready. He might be ready in 2024 or even September 2023 if he gets a year in AAA to refine his hit tool. Don't take him to the MLB roster. Gordon/Gallo can be the backup CF. 

Garlick? Just no, thank you.  He's older, always injured, can't hit RH pitching at all, and is a below average fielder. His career OPS+ is even slightly below average against LH pitching. He's ok as a stash depth piece in AAA, not as a guy on the 26 man expecting to play semi-regularly. I hate to say this but he doesn't help short term much and has little value long term.