The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2023: Part 3 (6-10)

[JD-TWINS]

Don’t get how Arraez was #11 going into ‘22 & played probably (?) more games than anyone else last year……..maybe Gordon played more? And he came into ‘23 as #10 after winning the batting title. Many say he had a career year batting .316 in ‘22 & we should consider trading him at high value, before his knees crumble, but his average over 4 MLB seasons is .313 & I assume he started at least 140 games last year as most of the other regulars dropped around him.

Ober needs to be available at some point for more than 3-4 consecutive starts to warrant #6 regardless of how many years of control we may have.

Thanks for the List & fueling the debate!!

[JD-TWINS]

Had to look up Louis stats:

121 games in ‘21 (w/o a position)

144 games in ‘22

.316 batting champ in ‘22

.314 (not.313 earlier referenced) BA over 4 MLB seasons

8 HR’s in ‘22

Do we think he has the POTENTIAL to hit a mere .305 (.340 OBP) & 12 HR’s in ‘23??? How many RBI does he rack up if he doesn’t bat 1 or 2 in the line-up……70-75??

I’ll take the bet on the last statement! Trade him? 10th ranked asset???

Eye test should suffice in this case - stats take him over the top. 4 successful years not just 1. Gotta be in our Top 4 assets!

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Don’t get how Arraez was #11 going into ‘22 & played probably (?) more games than anyone else last year……..maybe Gordon played more? And he came into ‘23 as #10 after winning the batting title. Many say he had a career year batting .316 in ‘22 & we should consider trading him at high value, before his knees crumble, but his average over 4 MLB seasons is .313 & I assume he started at least 140 games last year as most of the other regulars dropped around him.

The way I look at it is this: Arraez is still the same player as he was a year ago. In 2022 we saw him at the absolute max of his skill set, and in 2021 we saw him at the lower end. To be honest the past season didn't change my opinion of him much. His entire production is so dependent on batting well above ,300 and that's just a hard line to walk. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

21 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The way I look at it is this: Arraez is still the same player as he was a year ago. In 2022 we saw him at the absolute max of his skill set, and in 2021 we saw him at the lower end. To be honest the past season didn't change my opinion of him much. His entire production is so dependent on batting well above ,300 and that's just a hard line to walk. 

I hinted at this before and must state it again now. Why such a hard line approach on Luis while (presumably) Buxton gets a pass as I'm assuming Buxton will be #1?

Injuries are held over Arraez's head while the more often injured Buxton doesn't seem to get penalized as much for health.

Arraez wins the batting title in 2022 and is at his max? Buxton wasn't at his max (when he was on the field) in 2022? 

It seems quite a double standard. Arraez hit .316 in 2022. He eclipsed that BA in both 2019 and 2020. I believe he can hit .330 in a full season. 2023 will be his age 26 season, he has room to improve and put up better numbers the next 5 seasons. His home runs have slowly increased to 8 in 2022. I'm not bold enough to predict a 20 HR season for Luis - I will state he will achieve double digits in home runs. 

I'm placing my money on Arraez's numbers improving for the next 5 years.

[roger]

2 hours ago, gman said:

I would like ERod to play for the Twins next year, what a fast rise that would be, But I gotta think that knee injury slows him down for most of 2023.

Won’t he be 100% and ready to go at the start of spring training?

[Kevin Urdahl]

To me this leaves six:

Buxton, Lewis, Lee, Polanco, Ryan, and Julien . .  . .how can one of these not be in the top 20? I'm guessing Julien isn't making it, but I would put him no lower than #11.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

I hinted at this before and must state it again now. Why such a hard line approach on Luis while (presumably) Buxton gets a pass as I'm assuming Buxton will be #1?

Injuries are held over Arraez's head while the more often injured Buxton doesn't seem to get penalized as much for health.

Arraez wins the batting title in 2022 and is at his max? Buxton wasn't at his max (when he was on the field) in 2022? 

It seems quite a double standard. Arraez hit .316 in 2022. He eclipsed that BA in both 2019 and 2020. I believe he can hit .330 in a full season. 2023 will be his age 26 season, he has room to improve and put up better numbers the next 5 seasons. His home runs have slowly increased to 8 in 2022. I'm not bold enough to predict a 20 HR season for Luis - I will state he will achieve double digits in home runs. 

I'm placing my money on Arraez's numbers improving for the next 5 years.

Exactly my point……if oft injured Polanco hit .316 he’d have had an amazing season. If somehow Kepler hit 8HR’s but hit .316 he’d be up for an extension. If somehow Buxton hit half the HR’s he hit last year but had a .316 avg. it would be a great adjustment to his approach.

.314 Average over FOUR years. .316 doesn’t seem to be an outlier.

I get all 3 of these guys have a defensive advantage over Louis!! Given.

His “knee problems” seem to be less of an issue than any of these other 3 guys health issues though, as he was in 144 games last year.

3 more homers increase per year for 2 years & maybe 20 points less BA due to a mild change in approach. Is he capable of this? This leaves him at .296 BA with 14 homers in 2024. We HOPE Alex Kirilof could do this!! Again, RBI often are driven by where you are in the line-up. Gary Sanchez - Ryan Jeffers - Garlick - Cave - Celestino weren’t exactly filling up the bases last year prior to Louis coming to bat. He’s a 75 RBI guy minimum batting 3rd or 5th. Line-up spot change is something to consider with his lack of speed. Great protection for anyone in our line-up!

Buxton - Polanco - Larnach - Miranda - Arraez - Vázquez - Gordon - Farmer - Gallo………health is an issue but with some fortune, this line-up is competitive.

Kirilof - Walner - Garlick - Jeffers……early in the year, Gordon & Arraez handle the infield utility action.

[JD-TWINS]

VS. Left handed pitching :

Buxton - Polanco - Miranda - Garlick (LF)- Arraez - Vázquez (DH) - Farmer - Jeffers - Walner (RF)

Kirilof - Gordon - Larnach - Gallo

Another solid line-up if we can stay healthy.

Somebody from the Larnach - Kirilof - Walner - Gallo - Garlick group will need to be displaced by Lewis mid-July. Better IF utility option guy & a probable needed RH bar by mid year. Garlick, if productive, stays for RH options………Gallo has 12-15 HR’s by mid-July or he’s trade bait - maybe DFA’d?

[Twodogs]

7 hours ago, roger said:

What do you gain by his having an impact in the results of 60 games?  I maintain it's a hell of a lot more than another 4 or 5 wins.  Considering that they currently have, and should continue to have in the future, a solid starting staff, I believe he is much more valuable to the team in his current role

I mean I get your explanation here, but if that was really the case, wouldn't the good relievers out there have a higher WAR than the good starters?  My thinking is that a good starter, like a Verlander, can lock down 6 - 7 innings of a ballgame where a good reliever can only usually lock down 1 inning.  Now usually a good starter can do this because he has multiple ways to get guys out, they have 3 - 4 maybe more plus pitches so the hitters are unable to really lock into something.  Now if it's true that Duran is incapable of using or developing more than 2 pitches, if he is not good enough to get a solid 3rd or 4th pitch then yeah I guess relief is all that he can do.  My thing is why not give him a chance to try, it isn't going to effect the 2 good pitches he has, but if his body incapable of throwing 3 or 4 pitches then leave him where he's at.  But if his body and his drive says that he could, then why not give him a chance?  

[gman]

15 hours ago, roger said:

Won’t he be 100% and ready to go at the start of spring training?

Possibly, but it didn't work out too well for Lewis.

[roger]

53 minutes ago, gman said:

Possibly, but it didn't work out too well for Lewis.

Don't understand what you are saying.  What does Lewis' injury have to do with whether or not Rodriguez will be ready to play come spring training?  Also, weren't they different injuries?  Wasn't ERod a meniscus tear, which is a lot different than an ACL?

[h2oface]

On 1/4/2023 at 9:40 AM, Nick Nelson said:

The notion that Duran will be able to throw the way he did last year and hold up physically over 150+ innings in a fantasy. The Twins know that. In his heart, he probably knows that too. It's never gonna happen.

???? Why would Duran try to "throw the way he did" if he was a starter? You know the game well enough to know he would pitch like a starter, adjust his velo and have the "verlander" +5 mph anytime he wanted, another tool, and adapt. The Twins could seriously be limiting his lifetime earnings if they don't even explore him starting, and they don't own him. He will find a team, eventually, if that is what he wants. "Never" gonna happen? Funny how absolutes aren't.

[MinnInPa]

On 1/4/2023 at 12:37 PM, se7799 said:

You would feel much differently if you watched him play and practice in person.  His game stands out even against older competition.  The league is also notoriously known as being not very hitter friendly.

i hope you're right..but superstars dont hit .270 in low Ball.. they tear it up at each level

[ashbury]

I feel the need to pump the brakes on Emmanuel Rodriguez's breakout year at single-A. His numbers seem to be built on an other-worldly ability to draw walks. Walks are good, but at single-A there's a chance he's just figured out how to exploit young pitchers' inability to throw strikes on demand. Nobody has an OBP .200 higher than his BA on a sustainable basis. What will happen to him against more advanced pitchers next year? Specifically, will the "excess" walks that are no longer available to him turn into base hits? Or into outs?  His batting average was an okay .272, so I don't see a pattern of "if you throw him strikes he hits it, if you don't then he walks." I look for major regression in his batting stats in 2023 with a hope he proves me wrong.