The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2023: Part 3 (6-10)

[Nick Nelson]

With the arrival of a new year, it's time to update my annual rankings of the top 20 most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization.

Read on to see where I landed on #6 through #10 for the list.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

If you like, you can quickly catch up on the ground rules for this exercise in the first installment. The short version is this that we're attempting to rank Twins players and prospects through a big-picture lens in asking: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?

Here in this third installment, breaking down my picks for #6 through #10, we find a couple of great hitters with defensive fit question marks, two top prospects with sky-high potential, and an elite reliever who made his mark as a rookie in 2022.

First, a recap of the list as it stands, from Part 1 and Part 2 of the series:

20. Matt Wallner, OF
19. Louie Varland, RHP
18. Sonny Gray, RHP
17. Jorge Lopez, RHP
16. Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B
15. Ryan Jeffers, C
14. Trevor Larnach, OF
13. Austin Martin, SS/OF
12. Connor Prielipp, LHP
11. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 6 through 10

10. Luis Arraez, 1B

2022 Ranking: 11

Part of the challenge in these rankings is removing emotion and personal bias from the equation. The idea is to attempt an objective evaluation of players as assets, and that means taking factors like popularity and likability – which of course work strongly in Arraez's favor – largely off the table. What are we left with?

A great hitter, to be sure. Arraez had a career year in 2022, earning an All-Star nod, batting title, and Silver Slugger award. He's a premium bat and a rare breed in today's MLB. 

But it also seems telling that such a core fixture wasn't even in Minnesota's Opening Day lineup. Arraez is an odd fit. The team never seemed comfortable with his defense at second or third – certainly not the outfield – and now he's basically become a 1B/DH type with no power. His offense still stands out at those positions, just not to the same degree.

Descending so far on the defensive spectrum, and already experiencing recurring leg issues, by the age of 25 portends a tough aging curve for Arraez, who has three years of team control remaining. 

The impact of his bat and elite OBP skills cannot be downplayed, and his presence on the team is electric, but the lack of power, speed or defensive impact limit has value as an asset.

9. Jose Miranda, 1B/3B

2022 Ranking: 15

In terms of player profile, Miranda is not too dissimilar from Arraez: a bat-first corner infielder in his mid-20s, probably better suited for first than third. The difference is that he's younger, cheaper, and could offer more impact both offensively and defensively.

Coming off a breakthrough campaign in the minors, Miranda verified his hitting excellence with an impressive major-league debut. In 125 games he slashed .268/.325/.426 for a 116 OPS+ as a rookie. With outstanding strike zone coverage and ability to drive to all fields, the 24-year-old was never an easy assignment for even the most experienced big-league pitchers.

He's not quite the overall hitter Arraez is yet, but thanks to his budding power, Miranda has the potential to be a better one, and a much more prototypical corner slugger. He also has three extra years of team control.

8. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF

2022 Ranking: NR

This ranking might be considered a leap of faith: a 19-year-old who hasn't played above A-ball, coming off a major knee injury, ranked ahead of an All-Star in Arraez and stud rookie in Miranda?

Maybe it is, but I'm that much of a believer in Rodriguez, the system's breakout star of 2022. Prior to suffering a meniscus tear in July that ended his season, the center fielder was spectacular in Fort Myers, slashing .272/.493/.552 in 47 games. 

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 for $2.5 million, Rodriguez showed in his first turn at full-season ball that he's the full package: great defense, power, discipline, speed.

Among players to make at least 100 plate appearances in the Florida State League, Rodriguez's 1.024 OPS ranked second only to Jacob Gonzalez, a 24-year-old 1B/DH. Nobody else was within 80 points of the transcendent E-Rod, who generated huge buzz inside and outside the organization and will surely appear prominently on preseason global top prospect lists when they start to roll out soon.

He's got a ways to go, and the knee injury slowed his ascent, but Rodriguez is one of the crown jewels in this system and undoubtedly one of their most coveted, valuable trade chips.

7. Jhoan Duran, RHP

2022 Ranking: 14

We knew at this time last year that Duran had an amazing arm. The big question marks suppressing his perceived value: could we count on that arm to stay healthy, and did he have any chance of sticking as a starter?

It turns out, no, he wasn't going to stay in a starting role. Instead he transitioned to the back of the big-league bullpen and immediately put forth one of the most dominant, impressive, impactful seasons ever for a Twins reliever. Duran lit up the radar gun, blew away opposing hitters, thrived in the highest of leverage, and set new franchise and major-league records with his jaw-dropping velocity.

Perhaps most importantly, Duran remained healthy and strong all year long, with nigh a peep heard regarding elbow or forearm soreness. This inspires hope he can hold up physically in the new role, and so long as he does, it's hard to envision him being anything other than one of the most overpowering late-inning forces in baseball.

6. Bailey Ober, RHP

2022 Ranking: 6

It's no secret that controllable, established major-league pitching is in short supply for the Twins, and also desperately needed in order to fulfill their vision of sustaining contention while completely eschewing the free agent starter market. 

That's essentially why Ober ranked so highly on the list last year, and why he remains in the same spot this year. True, he struggled with a vexing groin injury that limited him to 11 starts and 56 innings, pitching very little while accruing a full year of major-league service. But on the flip side, he took a real step forward performance-wise, building on his strengths (pinpoint control, efficiency, consistent bat-missing ability) while improving on his weaknesses (allowing hits and home runs) to produce legitimate frontline numbers in the small sample: 3.21 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 4.64 K/BB ratio. 

Working in the mid-to-low 90s with his fastball and lacking standout secondary stuff, Ober is no ace, but he's got a sustainable recipe for mid-rotation success with his extension, command, and unique release point. Under control for five seasons, and very cheaply for the next several, the 6-foot-9 righty is a critical and underrated asset for the Twins.

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[GKuehl]

Nick, I’ve really enjoyed your lists and  agreed with most of your rankings so far, but your belief in Ober seems too optimistic. I would rather have Arraez, Miranda, Duran, and Rodriguez over Ober in a heartbeat.

If any of those 4 players played for another team and we were offered one of them for Ober in a trade, I would instantaneously accept. 

[se7799]

One of my favorite reads every year Nick..thankyou!  I really like Emma.  He's a really outstanding person and in my opinion will be atop our prospect ratings soon.  No knock on the other guys but as I've stated before he has superstar written all over him.

 

[tony&rodney]

Love these posts. I commented too long on the last two so will only add one wishful thought - Miranda needs a new jersey number.

[h2oface]

Ober a more valuable asset than Duran? or the next five coming? I'm out of here.

[theBOMisthebomb]

It's interesting how Arraez is dinged for a "tough aging curve" while I'm assuming in the 1-5 rankings Buxton will be #1. 

As for Miranda, only 15 home runs in 2022 surprised me. I would have guessed 20+. Memories fade and I was there for the Hader walk off and other nice Miranda games so I was influenced. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez wasn't on my radar, so that is a name I will now track closer.

I am a huge Ober fan and like his ranking. 

[Doctor Gast]

Great job Nick! You gave great reasons on how you ranked them & I agree with your rankings. It's tough to separate emotions from reality but you able to do it. It's tough to rank Ober ahead of Duran but I understand your reasoning, that SP is a more important position than RP & it's position of need. But yet if I were asked to pick which I'd choose to give up in trade, I'd give up Ober over Duran any day. But that could be my emotional tie to Duran.

[mikelink45]

Fun article - so good for generating discussion which is really a fun part of TD.  

I would join many who question Ober in that spot - way to high for me.  Two Years, two injuries. Total over two years of 31 starts.  He has been a pleasure but it seems like every Twin I write about has to include injuries.

Which leads me to Rodriguez - I too got really excited by him and see him as the eventual Buxton of the team, but again there is the injury - injuries are not confined to the major league roster.  I do see great value in his exciting potential and I suspect he would have begun jumping leagues if not for the injury.

Duran needs to top the list, I am surprised that he is this low.  For a team that relies and dies with the BP he is the one dependable and arm out there.  To get 2.8 BRWAR in the pen is great.  Fangraphs gives him 1.5 WAR and he is 22 among RP.   He would rank higher if he was used as the closer and had the save statistics, but we know his value whenever he comes in.

Arraez is my favorite player and Miranda is quickly becoming my second.  I really think that we will see something special with those two in 2023.  I just hope Arraez does not go down with his bad knee.  But I would probably rank they higher. 

My listing of these five would have:

1. Duran
2. Miranda
3. Arraez
4. Rodriguez
5. Ober

 

[h2oface]

Duran, if allowed to start, could very well be the most valuable asset this team has! But I guess a lights out closer can never be as valuable as a mid rotation starter that can't stay on the mound. Best to keep him were he is less valuable, therefore he won't be so coveted that this FO trades him like Pressly this mid season when the roster they built tanks and they want to get the most value for prospects and hope for the future........ rinse repeat........

[MinnInPa]

all the attention to a guy thats only hitting .272 at A Ball (Rodriquez)??? Get back to us when you see a true star....power and average. we need All Star caliber player(s) hitting close to .300..and not K-ing over 25% of the time..we need more Arraez..he is the # 1 asset on the team right now. 

[Maybebaby]

Good write up, agree with your assessments, but my lord for the health of these athletes...injuries mentioned in more of them than not. The Twins these days seem to be a mobile M*A*S*H unit be it minors or majors.  Are all most teams laden with injuries like ours. Pretty hard to put a saleable team on the field if they are in the trainers room.

[mike8791]

Thanks Nick for your usual lucid explanations!  While all of us might bicker with the exact final rankings, I don't think anyone can seriously quarrel with your logic.  I'm particularly struck by your high rating on Ober as being astute.  As with most on this list, questions on his health are legitimate, but he's shown enough to rank only behind Ryan in importance to a solid rotation in the next several years.  Agree completely.

And if I polish my crystal ball, I can envision your top 5 including Buxton, Lewis, Lee, and Polanco, as well as Ryan.  These rankings would highlight several important points that I hope the FO will be considering in the trade mart:

1. Including Ober in any trade for another starter makes no sense.

2.  Arraez looks like a solid sell high candidate, partly because he has no set position, does not fit as a typical power-hitting 1B/DH and plays at a position of strength in the current org.

3.While the rotation looks better on paper than it has in years, trading Gray or Mahle just subtracts from the 2023's playoff capabilities.  Unless this FO truly intends to forego playoff contention this year, they should not be looking to weaken what is now a certain strength of the team.  The only case where this would make any sense is if their inclusion in a trade resulted in a.) adding a #1 potential starter to pair with Ryan(see below) ; or 2.) adding a sorely needed cleanup hitter so  lacking in today's lineup(relying on Gallo here is a fool's errand).

4.  With no top-of-the-rotation pitchers in the organization except Ryan, trading for a high upside starter seems the best use of current trade assets.  While it might take an Arraez, Kepler, one of Lee, Julien or Lewis, and Varland or SWR to grab someone like May from LA, Darvish from SD, Gausman from TB, or Gallen from ARI, they should be looking at this type of addition now.  Such an addition would be much more important than grabbing an upgrade to Farmer for a short period of time.  And one last thought.  If trading Jeffers to land an ace-type starter should be strongly considered, as Vazquez is clearly the regular and addition of a defensive-oriented backup is not a high hurdle.

[roger]

Great series, Nick.

Agree with these rankings, including Ober.  Have a feeling that when you do this next year Rodriguez will be #1.   

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, Maybebaby said:

Good write up, agree with your assessments, but my lord for the health of these athletes...injuries mentioned in more of them than not. The Twins these days seem to be a mobile M*A*S*H unit be it minors or majors.  Are all most teams laden with injuries like ours. Pretty hard to put a saleable team on the field if they are in the trainers room.

I agree, seems like they had less injuries back when they played on the Metrodome carpet/concrete.  

[Twodogs]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

Duran, if allowed to start, could very well be the most valuable asset this team has! But I guess a lights out closer can never be as valuable as a mid rotation starter that can't stay on the mound. Best to keep him were he is less valuable, therefore he won't be so coveted that this FO trades him like Pressly this mid season when the roster they built tanks and they want to get the most value for prospects and hope for the future........ rinse repeat........

So I know Duran is in the bullpen right now, but has it been made clear that he will never start ever again?  Or did they just put him in the bullpen for experience sort of like they did with Johan Santana?  Just curious, because obviously his worth becomes a little different if he still has the potential to be a starter?  

[Dman]

3 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

all the attention to a guy thats only hitting .272 at A Ball (Rodriquez)??? Get back to us when you see a true star....power and average. we need All Star caliber player(s) hitting close to .300..and not K-ing over 25% of the time..we need more Arraez..he is the # 1 asset on the team right now. 

I don't know if you have been following Aaron Judge much but he is a career .284 hitter who K's about 28% of the time and just signed a contract to be the highest paid position player in baseball.  I think that should tell you what teams value and it isn't batting average, it is OPS.

I like Arraez a lot.  Love his plate approach, his enthusiasm, and his work ethic.  However, I would take Judge over Arraez any day of the week because with his power he can impact the game in ways Arraez just can't.  

Rodriquez is only in A ball but if he essentially maintains that profile all the way up he has a more valuable skillset than Arreaz at least the way baseball is played today.  Granted Arraez can help the MLB team right now.  Rodriguez could be years away yet hard to say.

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

all the attention to a guy thats only hitting .272 at A Ball (Rodriquez)??? Get back to us when you see a true star....power and average. we need All Star caliber player(s) hitting close to .300..and not K-ing over 25% of the time..we need more Arraez..he is the # 1 asset on the team right now. 

Why do we care about the batting average of a guy who got on base literally half the time??

As for Arraez, I can say with some confidence that at least one other team has been lukewarm on him as an asset in trade talks this offseason for some of the same reasons I mentioned...

[IA Bean Counter]

Duran,  quickly goes to #1 or #2 if they move him back to a starter and he is able to dominate.  RP may be his best spot,  but I think it may be a disservice to the organization to not try him as a starter,  as he has the stuff to potentially be a #1.   

[se7799]

3 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

all the attention to a guy thats only hitting .272 at A Ball (Rodriquez)??? Get back to us when you see a true star....power and average. we need All Star caliber player(s) hitting close to .300..and not K-ing over 25% of the time..we need more Arraez..he is the # 1 asset on the team right now. 

You would feel much differently if you watched him play and practice in person.  His game stands out even against older competition.  The league is also notoriously known as being not very hitter friendly.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

So I know Duran is in the bullpen right now, but has it been made clear that he will never start ever again?  Or did they just put him in the bullpen for experience sort of like they did with Johan Santana?  Just curious, because obviously his worth becomes a little different if he still has the potential to be a starter?  

The notion that Duran will be able to throw the way he did last year and hold up physically over 150+ innings in a fantasy. The Twins know that. In his heart, he probably knows that too. It's never gonna happen.

[Twodogs]

19 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The notion that Duran will be able to throw the way he did last year and hold up physically over 150+ innings in a fantasy. The Twins know that. In his heart, he probably knows that too. It's never gonna happen.

Has anything been written about that?  Because I mean last year was his first as a reliever? No?  I think he's started something like 80 games in the minors?  It would be interesting if he got a crack at it like next season after all the free agents leave, I mean if he's not good as a starter they can always put him back into the pen.  But it would be worth it, I believe to give him a shot at it.

[Fatbat]

There is no way ERod should ever be mentioned in a possible trade. You never trade 19yo centerfielders. I would bet that he is playing AAAA in 2024 as a 21 yr old. 

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

Has anything been written about that?  Because I mean last year was his first as a reliever? No?  I think he's started something like 80 games in the minors?  It would be interesting if he got a crack at it like next season after all the free agents leave, I mean if he's not good as a starter they can always put him back into the pen.  But it would be worth it, I believe to give him a shot at it.

Duran always had good stuff, the problem has always been that his arm wasn't able to hold up. If they had any inkling of him starting they'd have to start him out at long relief/ spot starting & go from there. But FO won't take that chance.

[Dman]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Duran always had good stuff, the problem has always been that his arm wasn't able to hold up. If they had any inkling of him starting they'd have to start him out at long relief/ spot starting & go from there. But FO won't take that chance.

Yeah I agree he always had trouble as a starter making it through a season even in the minors.  If they wreck his arm as a starter and he needs TJ he could be out for two years.  He made it through a full season in the pen at the MLB level with minimal issues and is an elite arm in that role.  Do you want to risk losing your elite shutdown arm for a chance for him to do something he never really proved he could do in the minors?  If it were me and I admit to being risk averse but I would keep him where he is.

The other issue is he never really did develop that solid third pitch he needed to be a starter so he might not have the same level of success he has had as a reliever.  And finally how many guys are there in MLB that can throw 100MPH fairly consistently as a starter (maybe Greene)?  I guess I am not aware of any so again I think reliever is the right role for Duran.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Duran,  quickly goes to #1 or #2 if they move him back to a starter and he is able to dominate.  RP may be his best spot,  but I think it may be a disservice to the organization to not try him as a starter,  as he has the stuff to potentially be a #1.   

That is a risky decision. Moving Duran to a starting pitcher is like what Woody Hayes said about a throwing a forward pass.  "One of three things can happen, and two of them are bad."

[IA Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

That is a risky decision. Moving Duran to a starting pitcher is like what Woody Hayes said about a throwing a forward pass.  "One of three things can happen, and two of them are bad."

2 of 3 are bad,  but the 1 has the potential of giving us a #1 starter that we haven't legitimately had since Santana and Liriano.  I am fine with them leaving at the reliever position,  he did really well in that role last year, but damn would it be amazing if he could become an ace.  

[roger]

Gotta disagree with several of you regarding Duran's future.  I want him to stay in the bullpen with continued use like last season, ie, close some games but come in to put out the fire in earlier innings before the game gets out of hand.

Got a question for everyone thinking he should start.  With the assumption the Twins can have a #1 starter who will win at least half his starts, what do you gain by replacing him with Duran?  With 25-30 starts each year, maybe 3 more wins?  4 or 5?

What do you gain by his having an impact in the results of 60 games?  I maintain it's a hell of a lot more than another 4 or 5 wins.  Considering that they currently have, and should continue to have in the future, a solid starting staff, I believe he is much more valuable to the team in his current role.

Also take exception with the one comment above suggesting Rodrguez may be years away.  Every year or two some young stud hits MLB at 20 years of age.  Guys like Acuna several years ago.  Wasn't that kid from Seattle 20 last year?  Assuming good health, I believe there is a chance Rodrguez plays for the Twins in 2023, hopefully, in the playoffs.

[gman]

27 minutes ago, roger said:

Gotta disagree with several of you regarding Duran's future.  I want him to stay in the bullpen with continued use like last season, ie, close some games but come in to put out the fire in earlier innings before the game gets out of hand.

Got a question for everyone thinking he should start.  With the assumption the Twins can have a #1 starter who will win at least half his starts, what do you gain by replacing him with Duran?  With 25-30 starts each year, maybe 3 more wins?  4 or 5?

What do you gain by his having an impact in the results of 60 games?  I maintain it's a hell of a lot more than another 4 or 5 wins.  Considering that they currently have, and should continue to have in the future, a solid starting staff, I believe he is much more valuable to the team in his current role.

Also take exception with the one comment above suggesting Rodrguez may be years away.  Every year or two some young stud hits MLB at 20 years of age.  Guys like Acuna several years ago.  Wasn't that kid from Seattle 20 last year?  Assuming good health, I believe there is a chance Rodrguez plays for the Twins in 2023, hopefully, in the playoffs.

I would like ERod to play for the Twins next year, what a fast rise that would be, But I gotta think that knee injury slows him down for most of 2023.

[gman]

I think that everyone can see that Buxton's remaining time in center field is going to be short in order to try to keep him playing in the batters box  more. ERod may be the one that helps move Buxton over to right.  ERod has quickly become part of that dream lineup with Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Martin & Julian.

I think that moving Duran to starter will cost the Twins both a starter and a very good reliever.

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

It's interesting how Arraez is dinged for a "tough aging curve" while I'm assuming in the 1-5 rankings Buxton will be #1. 

As for Miranda, only 15 home runs in 2022 surprised me. I would have guessed 20+. Memories fade and I was there for the Hader walk off and other nice Miranda games so I was influenced. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez wasn't on my radar, so that is a name I will now track closer.

I am a huge Ober fan and like his ranking. 

Miranda only up from late May ‘22 through September……….pace of 23HR’s in a full season. Looking forward to him climbing the asset list in ‘23!!