Rumor: Twins Interested in Michael Wacha

[Parfigliano]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Well they haven't traded Gray, Mahle, Kepler, and Polanco (and they signed Gallo) so I am thinking this isn't a rebuilding year in their mind. Letting Gray and Mahle go for nothing at the end of the year after giving up what they gave up would be unforgivable and a fire able offense.  IMO three years in a row with no playoffs is also a fire-able offense.

Definitely fireable considering the division they are in.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, GCTF said:

A for effort. Could have been A+ if you had worked ebola and/or Jim Hoey in.

I don't know where to place either on the continuum.

[darin617]

My guess is that Wacha is trying to secure at least a 2-3 year deal at close to 13-15M a year. His agent would stand firm now that he is the best free agent on the market yet to sign.

I wouldn't be against it and then try to move Mahle or Gray soon after.  May as well trade one of them now since they will both be free agents and then they won't get anything for them then.  I wouldn't even mind if they only got prospects in return. They need to rebuild after trading away so many pieces.

[TwinsDr2021]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And? Hajjar and Petty are the only 2 guys that they gave up for either of those guys that could fill a probable opening on the Twins roster in the next few years. Steer would be starting the year in AAA for the Twins next year where the Twins will instead have Julien. And somebody on the current 40-man wouldn't be there because Steer would need a spot (there's certainly a couple pitchers I'd remove for him in a vacuum). Encarnacion-Strand would probably split his year between AA and AAA next year as a no defense corner IF/DH who'd be blocked at the big league level by Miranda, Arraez, likely Lee jumps him quickly, Julien possibly, Martin possibly, and Kirilloff. I don't see Steer or CES as massive loses in your "after giving up what they gave up" statement. Unless you think they're going to be significantly better than the other 6 guys I just listed.

They gave up Petty (the 26th overall pick) for 2 years of Gray and what could be pick 31 in 2024 (depending on how much he signs for with another team). "Losing him for nothing" looks an awful lot like getting 2 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher and the chance to get a similar prospect to the one they gave up. All for a kid who'd thrown 5 innings in rookie ball at the time of the trade.

Hajjar was a 2nd round pick (#61 overall) who's in A+ ball at this point. So, again, "losing him for nothing" looks to me like giving up 2 hitting prospects blocked by better hitting, and fielding, prospects and/or current major leaguers, and a low level starter with upside for 1.5 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher (granted the .5 year didn't go as hoped) and a pick that would likely be an entire round higher than where they got Hajjar.

 

My point wasn't really they gave up future all stars or anything, but the gave up quite a bit of prospect trade capital Petty, Hajjar, Steer, Strand to get draft choices back. (FYI - I liked all those trades so that isn't the part I am talking about) And remember this started about talk of a rebuild while holding on to two (three with Maeda) pitchers that could walk for only draft choices or nothing.  Sure they could trade them at the deadline and get something but for that to happen one of two things happened, the Twins are terrible for the third year in a row and are sellers. (Which to me is a fire-able offense) or Varland, SWR, Ober, Ryan and somebody else stepped up and allowed them to trade free agent to be's. This would be the best possible scenario and I would have sides of corn bread and au gratin potatoes with my crow.

 

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nearly every front office in the game would be fired.......

If they are out of it, they'll t trade those guys. 

Well 16 different teams in the last two years have made the playoffs so nearly every front office is bit of exaggeration. Also this will be this FO 7th year and the last two have been a downward trend and another year of that is unacceptable IMO. And in mind there is no upward trend without (Edit: went from with to without) a playoff victory. As for trading them see my comments above. (And again I hope I am asking does crow need to be well done or can you have it medium?)

[Coach Wheels]

On 1/3/2023 at 10:40 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hayes and Gleeman of The Athletic have reported the Twins are possibly in pursuit of Michael Wacha.

The 31-year-old right-hander bounced back nicely with the Red Sox in 2022 with a 127 ERA+ but due to his lack of strikeout ability, his 4.14 FIP mark trailed his results by a large margin. Wacha, a long-time St Louis Cardinal, was a solid starter through 2018, after which point he began to struggle, posting three consecutive well-below-average seasons. Weirdly, not long after his ERA began to rise, he cut way down on his walk rate. His decline falls in line with a drop in his fastball velocity; at his peak, he had a 94-95mph fastball that has dropped into the 93mph range over the past several seasons.

Wacha would likely be available on a one-year deal, two at most.

 

View full rumor

 

This an upgrade from Bundy and Archer; I'd sign him to a 2 year contract.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My point wasn't really they gave up future all stars or anything, but the gave up quite a bit of prospect trade capital Petty, Hajjar, Steer, Strand to get draft choices back. (FYI - I liked all those trades so that isn't the part I am talking about) And remember this started about talk of a rebuild while holding on to two (three with Maeda) pitchers that could walk for only draft choices or nothing.  Sure they could trade them at the deadline and get something but for that to happen one of two things happened, the Twins are terrible for the third year in a row and are sellers. (Which to me is a fire-able offense) or Varland, SWR, Ober, Ryan and somebody else stepped up and allowed them to trade free agent to be's. This would be the best possible scenario and I would have sides of corn bread and au gratin potatoes with my crow.

But they didn't just get draft choices back. They got 3.5 combined years of above average major league pitchers and draft picks. But that's neither here nor there in this discussion. 

Yes, cHawk suggested they either needed to commit to winning now or rebuilding for the future, and suggested signing Wacha helped with neither of those situations. You then suggested they didn't seem to be giving off rebuild vibes by still having Gray, Mahle, Kepler, and Polanco (and signing Gallo). You said "letting Gray and Mahle go for nothing at the end of the year after giving up what they gave up would be unforgivable and a fire able offense."

Do you feel it's not acceptable for them to win the division in 2023 (maybe even a playoff game if we're lucky!) with Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (not to mention Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo that you also named) playing varying degrees of important roles and then getting up to 4 draft picks for the pitchers and Gallo and still being able to trade Kepler and Polanco after the season if young guys really step up? My read is that you think the only real option right now is to go into a rebuild. And we can just agree to disagree there if that's the case.

I'd actually prefer the draft picks over more prospects that don't have places to play on the current team, but will need 40-man spots this or next year. That's based on me not believing they're going to get some near MLB ready arms that project as top of the rotation guys in return for any of those guys right now. And if they can't get prospects in return that are better than the prospects they already have, and are better than top 35 picks in 2024, then I'd much prefer keeping Gray and Mahle and giving 2023 a go. They don't need more young position players (unless they could get a top end catching or CF prospect). They've got guys setup for every position (outside of C and a Buxton replacement better than a Gordon/Celestino platoon). What they need are top end arms. I don't think they can get that for Mahle or Gray this offseason.

My point is there's a talent line they can, and should, draw in return for Mahle and Gray. The Twins are holding 2 above average major league pitchers and 2 top 35 picks in their hands. So #1 they need to get a return that is worthy of 1 season of an above average major league pitcher if they're going to trade either of them. They could probably get that. Then, #2, they need to get a return that is worthy of a top 35 pick on top of that. And I don't think they can get that. And, to me, the fire-able offense would be trading Mahle and/or Gray for less than a return worthy of 1 year of their service plus a top 35 pick. Especially because, unless I'm remembering incorrectly, the team receiving them in trade would be able to put their own QO on them after the year and get the top 35 pick if they trade for them before the season. Although, I could be wrong on that and maybe that was based on the new league year start date. And where their comp pick lands depends on what team they'd trade them to.

They've got their prospect wave all in the majors, or on the doorstep. They sink or swim based on Kirilloff, Miranda, Arraez, Lewis, Lee, Larnach, and all the arms. If those guys all fail they're doomed anyways. A couple more prospects for Mahle and Gray doesn't fix that. Their wave is ready, and they need them to be successful. Then they need another wave in "4 to 7 years" like you said (I read it as sarcastic). A few more prospects of the same level as the ones they have in this wave won't make up for their internal wave failing. So I'd much rather have Gray, Mahle, Polanco, Maeda, etc. on the roster for 2023 and give it a shot. Then take the draft picks, and trade Polanco, if the prospects fail. Because the next wave won't be arriving in 2024 anyways so why would they want to add to a failed wave?

PS. That post got real long, so I apologize. A little excessive there.

[Johnny Ringo]

I have to say I have totally lost my understanding of the strategies of the front office. The Vasquez acquisition is a "compete now" move but there is nothing to suggest that we can compete. For instance, I think people don't appreciate how nightmarish our infield defense might be. Is Miranda even potentially an acceptable third baseman? Polanco is OK but is coming off a serious string of injuries. Farmer is pedestrian. I love Luis but he is at first because he has no place else to play. Signing Wacha would be another head-scratcher. It almost feels like a move to boost and simultaneously apologize for our payroll. Grandma gave us a twenty so we will spend it on something in the gift shop.   

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, darin617 said:

My guess is that Wacha is trying to secure at least a 2-3 year deal at close to 13-15M a year. His agent would stand firm now that he is the best free agent on the market yet to sign.

I wouldn't be against it and then try to move Mahle or Gray soon after.  May as well trade one of them now since they will both be free agents and then they won't get anything for them then.  I wouldn't even mind if they only got prospects in return. They need to rebuild after trading away so many pieces.

FYI, they're both eligible for qualifying offers and the Twins would almost certainly extend one to each of them. In which case the Twins would be in line to receive picks immediately following the 1st round in the 2024 draft depending on a few things. So they would still be getting something for losing those 2. Picks in the top 35 of the draft are pretty valuable.

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

MLR, I’m responding to yours because it’s the most convenient and because you’ve conveniently listed the starter options.

24 / 23 / 27 / 11(+4)/ 0 / 5(+23) / 1(+22) / 5 / 11 (+6) / 0(+6) 

That’s the number of starts those 10 guys had last year (including the minors in parentheses).

In summary, that’s three guys with 23+ starts in the majors; two with 23+ starts, but most of them in the minors; two guys with 15-17 starts (about one-third of them in the minors); a guy who missed the season and is coming off TJS; a guy with 5 starts, but not available until August because of TJS; and a guy with 6 minor league starts. 

All in all, I’m actually relatively encouraged by the potential strength and depth that group provides. But the only ones that feel like true locks are Ryan and Gray (and I’ll give you Mahle, though he did miss the last month-plus). I like Maeda. A lot. To my knowledge, I was the first person to suggest him as a trade target in an offseason blueprint. But I now find it interesting that a bunch of people seem to be using his presence, coming back from TJS, as a reason we don’t want an injury-prone Wacha. 

Folks have been clamoring for “ceiling.” That’s what Wacha presents. If you say, “What have you done for me lately,” he would arguably be the Opening Day starter if you consider starts (as many Mahle and Gray, a few fewer than Ryan), ERA+ (matching Gray, significantly better than Ryan or Mahle) and bWAR (0.9 more than any of them). He has always been highly regarded, a No. 1 draft pick, and at one point, we would have been clamoring to pick him up. 

Look, it always comes down to “at the right price.” I don’t see any of us advocating for a three-year deal. Only some of us are suggesting two years, which is what MLBTR predicted (at $8M/yr.). That he hasn’t gotten that yet makes one wonder whether that’s a bit high. If they could get him for something like $8M for one year, with $1M bonuses for 18, 21, 24 and 27 starts, maybe with a $1M option for a similar figure that vests at 24 starts, I think it would be worth taking a shot. 

In my mind, one of several things happens: 

• Maeda isn’t at full strength, Paddack isn’t back, etc. The added depth Wacha provides will be helpful — that list of 10 guys is now down to eight.
• He pitches great, as do others. If so, he was worth it, because the team is probably in contention. 
• He pitches great, others don’t. He’s a significant trade chip. His 16 or so starts by the deadline won’t have significantly limited the opportunity for young guys, since they will still get chances when other guys stink.
• He pitches poorly, others pitch great. He may still be a trade chip, because teams like “stuff.” Also, the team has actually shown a willingness to dump guys (Reed, Duffey, etc.) when they are on the last year of a contract and they have alternatives to use (Bundy and Archer don’t count — they didn’t realistically have options that were ready last midsummer). If Ober/SWR/Varland are beating down the door while Wacha struggles, I think they’d drop him.
• He pitches poorly, others also stink or are hurt (including the young ones). They needed the body.

And finally, remember that deals don’t happen in a vacuum. If signing Wacha gives them the freedom use another pitcher for a SS upgrade, for example, that’s also a win.

 

I think the idea that he could be signed for $8 million a year shoots down the idea that he's worth investing in over the guys they already have on staff. 42 year old Rich Hill just got $8 million. Corey Kluber got 10. If he's struggling to even get 8 it shows that the league doesn't think his 2022 performance is at all sustainable and he's likely the below replacement level player he'd been for years before that. He got 3 in 2020, 3 in 2021, and 7 in 2022. If he can't get to 8 after a career year he's not worth it.

[TwinsDr2021]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

My read is that you think the only real option right now is to go into a rebuild. And we can just agree to disagree there if that's the case.

I agree with everything in the post this quote is from. It is logical and spot on IMO.

Sorry I didn't mean to come off with "your read" at all, I don't think they should be rebuilding at all, I was trying to say if the FO is going to rebuild they should tear it down and trade off they assets they have, not try this half arse rebuild and have another crappy year and get stuck only getting draft picks for guys they should have traded if they were going to rebuild. I don't think this FO has the luxury of rebuilding starting in the 7th year.  (my crow comment was if they are trying to rebuild and they hit magic all year similiar to what happened in the first half of 22)

Nothing less than a playoff victory is acceptable to me this year. I also believe bringing in a starter that isn't obviously better than Mahle, Gray and Ryan is a fools errand, unless it is Sale, I am all on board with that.  Have a good weekend!

 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with everything in the post this quote is from. It is logical and spot on IMO.

Sorry I didn't mean to come off with "your read" at all, I don't think they should be rebuilding at all, I was trying to say if the FO is going to rebuild they should tear it down and trade off they assets they have, not try this half arse rebuild and have another crappy year and get stuck only getting draft picks for guys they should have traded if they were going to rebuild. I don't think this FO has the luxury of rebuilding starting in the 7th year.  (my crow comment was if they are trying to rebuild and they hit magic all year similiar to what happened in the first half of 22)

Nothing less than a playoff victory is acceptable to me this year. I also believe bringing in a starter that isn't obviously better than Mahle, Gray and Ryan is a fools errand, unless it is Sale, I am all on board with that.  Have a good weekend!

 

Got ya. Misread what you were getting at. Not the first time and won't be the last for me doing that.

My criteria for what is and what isn't acceptable this year is a little different than yours, but I certainly don't blame anyone for demanding a playoff win out of these guys. It's definitely time to start seeing some real success around these parts.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

I have to say I have totally lost my understanding of the strategies of the front office. The Vasquez acquisition is a "compete now" move but there is nothing to suggest that we can compete. For instance, I think people don't appreciate how nightmarish our infield defense might be. Is Miranda even potentially an acceptable third baseman? Polanco is OK but is coming off a serious string of injuries. Farmer is pedestrian. I love Luis but he is at first because he has no place else to play. Signing Wacha would be another head-scratcher. It almost feels like a move to boost and simultaneously apologize for our payroll. Grandma gave us a twenty so we will spend it on something in the gift shop.   

Vazquez is signed for three years, not one. And, it's possible they thought they'd sign more guys when they signed him, and didn't succeed.

[Johnny Ringo]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Vazquez is signed for three years, not one. And, it's possible they thought they'd sign more guys when they signed him, and didn't succeed.

Fair enough, but at his age, the first year of this deal would probabilistically be his best. Also, he was signed after a huge number of chips were off the table. I think the Gallo signing is agnostic to the "compete now" consideration. Whatever the Twins can get for Kepler is worth more than the $1 million delta in their salaries (including Kepler's buy-out).  That can be viewed just as good portfolio management (whether it works or not).  

[darin617]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, they're both eligible for qualifying offers and the Twins would almost certainly extend one to each of them. In which case the Twins would be in line to receive picks immediately following the 1st round in the 2024 draft depending on a few things. So they would still be getting something for losing those 2. Picks in the top 35 of the draft are pretty valuable.

Neither pitcher is anywhere close to being worthy of a qualifying offer.  Are you seriously thinking either pitcher could command the offer? The 2022 qualifying offer was 18.4M. No way would either pitcher command that. 

I never wasted a second thinking about it because neither are that elite to command it.

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Neither pitcher is anywhere close to being worthy of a qualifying offer.  Are you seriously thinking either pitcher could command the offer? The 2022 qualifying offer was 18.4M. No way would either pitcher command that. 

I never wasted a second thinking about it because neither are that elite to command it.

So your stance is to trade them now because they aren't good enough to get a qualifying offer, but you think another team would be willing to give up something of worth for them? Kind of seems a bit contradictory.

You don't think either of them are as good, or better, than Eovaldi or Perez? Or Tyler Anderson? Don't think Sonny Gray's numbers compare to Chris Bassitt's? I'd argue (and pretty easily) that they're every bit as "elite" as those 4 guys who all received QOs after last season. I'd go compare those 4 pitchers to the guys you "never wasted a second thinking about" because they wouldn't be worth it.

[darin617]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So your stance is to trade them now because they aren't good enough to get a qualifying offer, but you think another team would be willing to give up something of worth for them? Kind of seems a bit contradictory.

You don't think either of them are as good, or better, than Eovaldi or Perez? Or Tyler Anderson? Don't think Sonny Gray's numbers compare to Chris Bassitt's? I'd argue (and pretty easily) that they're every bit as "elite" as those 4 guys who all received QOs after last season. I'd go compare those 4 pitchers to the guys you "never wasted a second thinking about" because they wouldn't be worth it.

They need to replenish the minors with prospects. Even if it's a few low level lottery tickets.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, darin617 said:

They need to replenish the minors with prospects. Even if it's a few low level lottery tickets.

The international signing period starts in just over a week. Already reports that they have deals in place for 2 guys, and with over $6 million to spend they'll certainly sign more than 2. There's your "few low level lottery tickets," and they didn't even have to trade anyone! 

[Maybebaby]

You gotta be kidding me!  Play it again Sam.  Hit it!!!

 

[laloesch]

wacha wacha wacha

[bap3141]

I'm more interested in these kinds of moves if they're supplemental moves. I don't want to wear a bunch of accessories with no suit to match.

Now that the Twins have their Armani, sure let's start looking at adding some depth. Wacha wouldn't be my first choice but if he's a reasonable price. I'd rather the Twins trade for a top of rotation starter though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TyCobb367]

On 1/3/2023 at 11:57 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I understand the logic.  For me, especially if the price is right, he represents potential veteran pitching depth at a higher level than Archer or Bundy.  He may be seen more as a BP guy, depending on how they are looking at him.

It is getting tiresome of people trolling every single move the Twins make. "Everything is wrong because the Twins don't pay and nobody wants to come to Minnesota."

I agree with you totally. Wacha is a respected veteran, with a history of postseason success, knows how to pitch, and had a nice turnaround last year. Sign him to a one year deal and hope he has a solid season, and then trade him at the deadline if they are out of contention. Anything over a 1 year deal is out of the question though.