Rumor: Twins Interested in Michael Wacha

[Otaknam]

My first thought on Wacha was OK. He was pretty good for a number of seasons and likely an upgrade from Bundy and Archer. I don’t seem his as a scrap heap acquisition like some others over the past few years. Still, we need to find out about Varland, SWR, Winder, Sands, Enlo, Canterino, Balazovic and others. It looks like another rebuild to me so why take innings from the young guys? I still am afraid the FO will make another trade mistake to acquire a number 3 or 4 starter and we lose good minor leaguers like Lewis or Lee. 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

1 hour ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

I'd rather have Wacha than Bundy or Archer......

x  None of the above

[jorgenswest]

The Twins need to add a starter to the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot. If they can’t do that in trade then I would risk the younger pitchers in the bottom of the rotation over Wacha.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins can't develop the pipeline and show guys are ready if they are not going to let them pitch.

I don't believe Wacha is likely to be better than the current players. 

[Rosterman]

I wouldn't want him for mroe than a season. Someone will offer him a multi-year.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

38 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why, why, why even bother talking to him, unless it is a minor league contract or for the bullpen. How old do Varland and Winder, Sands, Canterino, Headrick have be before giving them a chance? 30? even then people will probably be calling them young.

Maybe their strategy is to sign back end rotation guys each year to hold the prospects back to delay their FA thus allowing the Twins to utilize their prime years at low pay.  They did this with Garver to a degree.

[jorgenswest]

5 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Maybe their strategy is to sign back end rotation guys each year to hold the prospects back to delay their FA thus allowing the Twins to utilize their prime years at low pay.  They did this with Garver to a degree.

They might be but I don’t think Garver is a fit. I really think he needed that 2017 time in AAA to become a better defensive catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Maybe their strategy is to sign back end rotation guys each year to hold the prospects back to delay their FA thus allowing the Twins to utilize their prime years at low pay.  They did this with Garver to a degree.

This isn't serious, right? Every pitcher but SWR is in their prime age. Maybe even SWR. There isn't some weird conspiracy here......

[Fire Dan Gladden]

45 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I agree there's plenty of that sort of sentiment around these parts, I disagree that's what's happening here. Plenty of us are pointing out that Wacha doesn't have all that high of a chance of being a potentially useful player. Yes, he was good last year, but that was an extreme outlier in performance. Yes, he had 3.3 bWAR last year. He had 1.5 fWAR. 

Here's his bWAR/fWAR from 2016 to 2022:
-.2/1.8
1.5/3.1
1.1/.8
.2/-.3
-.2/0
-.6/1.1
3.3/1.5

Here's his IP totals from 2016 to 2022:
138
165.2
84.1
126.2
34
124.2
127.1

He's no more "potentially useful" than 10 dudes they already have on the roster. Do they think they can get a near Petty level return for Gray if they decide to trade him and are looking at Wacha as a possible veteran replacement in the rotation in that case? I'd guess no, but would understand that. If not, you're replacing Ober with Wacha. That doesn't excite me at all and seems like a signing simply to say they made a signing. I'm not interested in that.

I understand the logic.  For me, especially if the price is right, he represents potential veteran pitching depth at a higher level than Archer or Bundy.  He may be seen more as a BP guy, depending on how they are looking at him.

It is getting tiresome of people trolling every single move the Twins make. "Everything is wrong because the Twins don't pay and nobody wants to come to Minnesota."

[gunnarthor]

I like Wacha and, depending on the deal, this could work out. The problem is that he's unlikely to do more than pitch 130 innings. We need arms that can soak up innings or 30+ arms on the staff over the course of the season. 

But he - like Gray - is a real ML pitcher. It's good to have a few of them to go with everything else we have. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I understand the logic.  For me, especially if the price is right, he represents potential veteran pitching depth at a higher level than Archer or Bundy.  He may be seen more as a BP guy, depending on how they are looking at him.

It is getting tiresome of people trolling every single move the Twins make. "Everything is wrong because the Twins don't pay and nobody wants to come to Minnesota."

I agree 100% with the last paragraph.

But I don't see a need for "potential veteran pitching depth" if it isn't better than the veteran pitching depth they already have. They have 3 veterans and Ryan in the rotation. If they're not bringing in someone better than Ober (and I don't see Wacha, who has his own durability issues, as being better than Ober) then I don't get the point. Is he willing to take a minor league deal with a ST invite coming off a career best season? Cuz that's the only price that seems right to me. He's not bumping anyone else out of the rotation so it's going to be hard to sell him on coming to the Twins to be a bullpen piece coming off a career year. I simply don't see the fit here.

If they're looking for a 1 inning BP piece, and I think they should be, I'd much rather see Fulmer return than hope Wacha can transition to a 1 inning pen arm. Unless they can convince Wacha to be a long man in the pen, again wouldn't expect that coming off a career year, or they're going to move Ober to a long man role. And I think that'd be mismanaging Ober at this point. I just don't see a fit for this type of player. They've got a bunch of league average dudes. They need to start getting some real impact players. Only way for that this offseason is trades.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why, why, why even bother talking to him, unless it is a minor league contract or for the bullpen. How old do Varland and Winder, Sands, Canterino, Headrick have be before giving them a chance? 30? even then people will probably be calling them young.

Canterino is out with injury. Paddack will also start the season on the 60 day injured list. This team should absolutely sign two pitchers to fill those spots. They can option Megill and Moran to start the season. They're free roster spots.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I like Wacha and, depending on the deal, this could work out. The problem is that he's unlikely to do more than pitch 130 innings. We need arms that can soak up innings or 30+ arms on the staff over the course of the season. 

But he - like Gray - is a real ML pitcher. It's good to have a few of them to go with everything else we have. 

Only 90 pitchers pitched 130 innings or more.....not sure where we expect to find those.

[Winston Smith]

Does he shop at Dior?

[Mike Sixel]

38 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Canterino is out with injury. Paddack will also start the season on the 60 day injured list. This team should absolutely sign two pitchers to fill those spots. They can option Megill and Moran to start the season. They're free roster spots.

Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Varland, Ober (Maeda, Winder, SWR, Henriquez, Headrick, Balazovic, Dobnak, et. al.).......how much depth do people want of not front end guys? How do the Twins find  out if any of the guys are good, if they won't play them? 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins can't develop the pipeline and show guys are ready if they are not going to let them pitch.

I don't believe Wacha is likely to be better than the current players. 

This.  Give the guys they have a chance over signing a guy just to appear to be doing something.

[gunnarthor]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Only 90 pitchers pitched 130 innings or more.....not sure where we expect to find those.

That would suggest three per team. I expect our pipeline to create those. If the Twins go all-in (and it looks like they will) on this 4-5 inning opener concept, they'll be sub-.500 in the easiest division again while making the game nearly unwatchable. Our staff is mostly junk, we had three players who managed to be worth at least 1 WAR - Gray, Ryan, Duran. They need better pitchers and a better philosophy. 

But Wacha is fine. He's probably our best or second best pitcher.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Canterino is out with injury. Paddack will also start the season on the 60 day injured list. This team should absolutely sign two pitchers to fill those spots. They can option Megill and Moran to start the season. They're free roster spots.

Those two (Canterino and Paddack) don't even have spots on the major league roster in my example, and Moran who will be 26 shortly and Megill (also not on my roster) who is 29 for sure could be upgraded, but please explain how Wacha or any other of the FA agent starters help?

If you could convince Wacha to pitch in the pen to replace Pagan great.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Varland, Ober (Maeda, Winder, SWR, Henriquez, Headrick, Balazovic, Dobnak, et. al.).......how much depth do people want of not front end guys? How do the Twins find  out if any of the guys are good, if they won't play them? 

Working my way backwards through that list - Dobnak is off the roster and probably never pitches in the major leagues again - we already know he's not good. Balazovic is more likely to be released than he is to contribute. Headrick and Henriquez are relievers in the majors. Woods-Richardson is the 6th starter, he should get plenty of chances to pitch in 2023. Winder is a reliever. Maeda is coming off a missed season and can't be expected for more than 100 innings. Ober has never been healthy. Varland - who knows, he's a rookie with 47 innings above Double-A.

There were 313 innings pitched by Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer last season over 66 starts. The Twins know that Gray, Mahle, Ober and Maeda will each miss starts. If they all end up on the IL at the same time the rotation becomes Ryan, SWR, Varland and two other bad options.

There are two automatic roster openings that will happen this spring. If they don't use those two openings to add pitching they should probably fire the front office on the spot because they aren't trying to win but they also aren't trying to rebuild.

It's a 78 win team that subtracted two of the 10 best players from the roster. This team should not be on autopilot.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

That would suggest three per team. I expect our pipeline to create those. If the Twins go all-in (and it looks like they will) on this 4-5 inning opener concept, they'll be sub-.500 in the easiest division again while making the game nearly unwatchable. Our staff is mostly junk, we had three players who managed to be worth at least 1 WAR - Gray, Ryan, Duran. They need better pitchers and a better philosophy. 

But Wacha is fine. He's probably our best or second best pitcher.

This team regularly changes what didn't work the year before, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the starters go longer, maybe even too long. I know that no one is happy with the front office, but the one thing they do that the last front office didn't was try new things.

But on what planet is Michael Wacha the team's best pitcher? He was awful for three years running then had one outlier year. This guy looks like Dylan Bundy in 2019. If any other team believed in him, he'd have already gotten a deal like Walker, Taillon and Eovaldi got. No one has because it's clearly a smoke-and-mirrors situation. Having this guy take innings from the young players would be the dumbest thing this team has done all off season, and that's saying a lot.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda...

2022        33   MIN     AL                                           0      0                                           0.0   (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...)

Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. 

Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda.

As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route.

So yes, please, on Wacha. 

Wacha is as low as we can go in FA for a starter! I still feel a veteran starter from Spring Training that can get Maeda into a bridge roll out of the pen for first 2-3 months of ‘23 is beneficial. The odds of all of our starters being healthy are slim & depth (with experience) is going to be helpful vs. leaning on guys with 1-4 starts in MLB. We can ease Varland & others into the staff, if desired, through July.

6 starters may work and therefore allowing guys to work longer into games? In this case I’d use Varland or best young choice out of Spring Training, along with Wacha, and again have Maeda in the Pen.

Staff:

Ober - Gray - Ryan - Wacha (sign) - Mahle - Varland…………an awfully lot of RH 92-95MPH guys!!!!

Fulmer (sign) - Moran - Maeda - Thielbar - Megill - Jax - Duran

If we don’t move on Wacha, sign a 2nd RP from Free Agency Mkt.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

This.  Give the guys they have a chance over signing a guy just to appear to be doing something.

you can do both. they still had plenty of innings to go around for devin smeltzer, chi chi gonzalez and whatever other crappy guys who weren't part of the group you're talking about.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Working my way backwards through that list - Dobnak is off the roster and probably never pitches in the major leagues again - we already know he's not good. Balazovic is more likely to be released than he is to contribute. Headrick and Henriquez are relievers in the majors. Woods-Richardson is the 6th starter, he should get plenty of chances to pitch in 2023. Winder is a reliever. Maeda is coming off a missed season and can't be expected for more than 100 innings. Ober has never been healthy. Varland - who knows, he's a rookie with 47 innings above Double-A.

There were 313 innings pitched by Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer last season over 66 starts. The Twins know that Gray, Mahle, Ober and Maeda will each miss starts. If they all end up on the IL at the same time the rotation becomes Ryan, SWR, Varland and two other bad options.

There are two automatic roster openings that will happen this spring. If they don't use those two openings to add pitching they should probably fire the front office on the spot because they aren't trying to win but they also aren't trying to rebuild.

It's a 78 win team that subtracted two of the 10 best players from the roster. This team should not be on autopilot.

10000000000% Balazovich isn't released. 

[bloggymcbloggerson]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

We can't do that.  You see the FO sucks because we didn't sign [insert player here] so we need to complain about signing [insert potential useful player here]. 

wait until they see the bwar and fwar comp between wacha and eovaldi

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

10000000000% Balazovich isn't released. 

Glad you agree with the rest of it. Balazovic has one option season left. If he's just as bad this year as he was last year he's getting released.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

This team regularly changes what didn't work the year before, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the starters go longer, maybe even too long. I know that no one is happy with the front office, but the one thing they do that the last front office didn't was try new things.

But on what planet is Michael Wacha the team's best pitcher? He was awful for three years running then had one outlier year. This guy looks like Dylan Bundy in 2019. If any other team believed in him, he'd have already gotten a deal like Walker, Taillon and Eovaldi got. No one has because it's clearly a smoke-and-mirrors situation. Having this guy take innings from the young players would be the dumbest thing this team has done all off season, and that's saying a lot.

You really need to stop with the new FO kool-aid. 

Wacha was worth 3.3 WAR which would have led this team. And he did it in the AL East. And he was a good pitcher for a while. I trust him a lot more than AAAA guys like Ober and Dobnak. But it also might depend on what you think the Twins should be doing. If you think rebuild, then he doesn't make sense - except maybe as a guy you flip at the trade deadline. If you think the Twins are going to compete for the AL central, well, then you need to start signing better pitchers than what we have b/c we have a bunch of really bad pitchers. 

[jorgenswest]

The reality is the data from the previous season does not provide a good projection for the next season. It is much more reliable to use multiple years particularly for a player at Wacha’s age and experience.

Some don’t trust projections but anyone using last season’s data to support acquiring (or not) a player is projecting last season on the next. If you are going to project using more data (seasons) will give a better projection.

Steamer projects Wacha for a 4.43 ERA next season. Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Mahle, Ober and even Varland are projected for better ERAs. The Twins certainly have their own projection which they trust more but should we trust it. Have they found success with these short term back of the rotation signings?

I am all for adding a starter but acquire someone that slots in by Gray rather than between Varland and Woods-Richardson. Chris Sale would move everyone down a slot. They can pay the salary. Go after a pitcher like Sale.

[Oldgoat_MN]

In 2022 Wacha had a career high of 80.3% left on base and a career low .260 BABIP. All the luck fell his way. I would be shocked if 2023 was nearly as good as 2022 for him. My vote is a hard pass.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, bloggymcbloggerson said:

wait until they see the bwar and fwar comp between wacha and eovaldi

Don’t get me started on Eovaldi………!!! 2 years for $34 million - almost free in the shade of the Correa offer & when contrasted with the Gallo signing!

[JD-TWINS]

Begged for Bassitt - then Eovaldi - thought Kluber could be justified - Wacha is as deep as we can go……….still need to go there though & start year with Maeda in the PEN.

PLEASE SIGN Fulmer or Chafin or Britton to ensure BP depth! PLEASE!