Predicting the Twins Contenders for MLB’s Major Awards in 2023

[Cody Christie]

Spring training is right around the corner, and many national sites are starting to preview the 2023 season. Here are Minnesota’s top contenders for MLB’s major awards.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins haven’t had an MVP since Joe Mauer (2009), a Cy Young since Johan Santana (2006), and a Rookie of the Year since Marty Cordova (1995). Minnesota will need better health and standout performances from the team’s top players to end those streaks. Can any of these names beat the odds and walk away with one of baseball’s most prestigious awards?

MVP: Byron Buxton
He is the team’s best overall player and has played at an MVP level when he is healthy. It takes a special season for a player to win the AL MVP, especially with Shohei Ohtani performing highly as a two-way player. Last season, Aaron Judge had to break the AL home run record to beat Ohtani, and the argument could still be made that Ohtani had a better season. For Buxton to win the MVP, he will need to play more games than in any other season. His career high is 140 games, and that came in 2017. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 76 games, so it might be a tall task for him to play enough to garner MVP votes. 

Other MVP Contenders: Luis Arraez will be looking to repeat as the AL Batting Champion. To be in the MVP conversation, he must compile a historically significant batting average.

Cy Young: Kenta Maeda
During the 2020 season, Maeda finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young, carrying the Twins rotation to an AL Central title. He struggled in 2021 before needing Tommy John surgery. Now healthy, Maeda is entering the final year of his contract with something to prove. The 34-year-old hasn’t had an opportunity to test free agency since coming to the United States from Japan. He needs to prove that he is healthy and that he can perform as he did in 2020. Last year’s AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander signed with the Mets this winter, which leaves the field a little more open. 

Other Cy Young Contenders: Sonny Gray is arguably Minnesota’s best starting pitcher, but his veteran track record doesn’t point to a Cy Young-caliber season. Joe Ryan has plenty of potential if he can take the next step in his young career.

Rookie of the Year: Matt Wallner
Joey Gallo’s signing makes it less likely that Wallner breaks camp with the Twins, especially if the team doesn’t trade Max Kepler. Wallner has shown massive power potential in the upper minors and may have surpassed other young outfielders on the organization’s depth chart. Last season, he hit .277/.412/.542 (.953) with 32 doubles, four triples, and 27 home runs. When an injury strikes, Wallner will be one of the first call-ups from Triple-A, which should give him a chance to compile a home run total that puts him in the ROY conversation.

Other ROY Contenders: Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson will each get an opportunity in the rotation. It takes a remarkable season from a pitcher to win the ROY over a position player, but there are plenty of opportunities to shine.

None of these Twins players will be the favorite for any award, especially with the team coming off two losing seasons. There are surprises every year in baseball, and the Twins hope all of the above names have improved 2023 campaigns. 

Which player above has the best chance to take home the hardware? Will different players emerge from the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[BuxtonBonanza]

A healthy Buxton has to be an automatic MVP finalist. Using past bWAR as a predictor, in 2021 he had 4.5 bWAR in 61 games which comes out to 11.8 bWAR for 162 game season and in 2022 he had 4 bWAR in 92 games which comes out to about 7 bWAR for 162 (I was terrible at math so take all of this with a grain of salt). The top two MVP finishers last year were Ohtani with 9.6 bWAR and Judge with 10.6 bWAR. 

If he can just keep it together, he will definitely be in the conversation but that is always a big if. 

[dxpavelka]

Arraez will need peripheral stats (i.e. power) other than BA

[Beast]

Buxton is the only one with a remote chance at one of these awards.  I no longer have faith he can play enough to win one, but the outside chance is there.  One could see him staying healthy and playing platinum glove level CF with 90 XBHs, ending up at some ridiculous WAR around 10.  Remote, but at least seems possible.

Areaz has no shot.  Yordan Alvarez hit .306 with a million HRs and RBIs and finished 3rd.  Arraez would need to add a significant amount of power to his line to even enter the bottom end of the conversation.  We saw his ceiling, IMO.  He’s already dealing with a broken down body.  I don’t see him being healthy all year.  Very good player, but overvalued by Twins fans and has way too many things working against him (power, defense, health).

Maeda might not be in the top 3 on the team for potential Cy Young candidates.   But, none of them really have a shot, so it feels like a waste of time even typing it.

Im not especially high on Wallner.  You never know, I could be wrong.  Maybe he’ll throw together a season like we saw recently from Gallo.  But, I’d be shocked.  The league will adjust to his successful debut, and I expect some struggles in 2023.  With the “depth” we have in the corner OF spots, he might not even stay in the rotation.  If things were wide open for him to work through some struggles, I may feel differently about his chances at an award.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Buxton... Sure.

Anybody else, nope.

Maeda will have his innings monitored too much to be in the conversation.  Gray would have to pitch out of his mind.

No rookies will get enough time to warrant consideration.  Lewis would have the smallest of chances (80 or 90 games could do it if the impact was great enough), but it would depend on when he returns to action.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Slim to none... and Slim and Buxton just went on the Injured List.

[Doctor Gast]

I believe Buxton will have shot this year, for MVP.

Lewis will have an impact but will he get enough playing time to qualify for ROY? Even if Wallner has a decent hitting year, play enough with Gallo in the equation, his defense will keep him from coming close.

Gray or Mahle has the best shot for CYA  but I really doubt it.

[strumdatjag]

The Twins should have numerous contenders for comeback player of the year - Buxton, Maeda .., 

[Whitey333]

Great article for discussion.  Any of these players winning awards next year is pure fantasy.  The only award Buxton could make is MIP.  That's most injured player.  To even be considered Buxton would need to play 140+ games.  He hasn't done that in 5 years.  I wish he could play regularly.  How people project him as an MVP based on success from a limited playing time is beyond me.  I'd love to see how he does in a full season.  We will probably never know.

[mac098]

I don't we have a single player that will qualify for anything. Not sounding negative, but Buck won't be able to stay healthy for 150+ games to garner MVP votes. Arraez doesn't have enough numbers outside OBP and BA to be able to garner votes. Our pitching is going to be about the same as last year. 

So, in reality, the Twins will NOT win the division, will NOT make the post-season, and will NOT have any individual hardware next year.