The Twins' Pitching Pipeline Hinges on Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson

[se7799]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

That does not impact me.  What other teams choose to do does not make us smarter or better. 

How does making better trades and receiving more talent in those trades NOT make us better? The Berrios trade literally did impact us as a team.

[Mike Sixel]

42 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I hope so, but let's wait and see

 

Wait and see what? They got two years of Gray. That was the cost, whether the guy they gave up is great or not. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Man…you gotta come up with a better example than Berrios. As of now, that looks like the PERFECT sell-high move for someone that was actually overrated by the market. Didn’t hurt the team in any meaningful manner in the short term, and has a chance to help significant in the future. Maybe it will look different in 9 months, true. But there’s also a chance that it will look even better in 9 months.

The Twins used 14 different starting pitchers in 2022.  ONE of them performed at a similar level as Berrios.  How might things look in 9 months if attempts to replace Berrios hadn't necessitated losing Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar & Christian Encarnancion-Strand?

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The Twins used 14 different starting pitchers in 2022.  ONE of them performed at a similar level as Berrios.  How might things look in 9 months if attempts to replace Berrios hadn't necessitated losing Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar & Christian Encarnancion-Strand?

You only see what you want to see.  Berrios "level" since being traded has been below replacement level.  Gray is the only reasonable example of them replacing Berrios given the timeframe and circumstances and he was far better than Berrios.  Going forward, who knows but Berrios level so far is below Chris Archer.  Louie Varland provided .9 more bWAR in a handful of starts.  They added all of those other players in a misguided attempt to win the division and they would have not been in any better position if they had Berrios last year given his performance.

If I were to describe the impact of trading Berrios to date, he cost us absolutely nothing in terms of contributing to winning.  Long-term, we exchanged Chase Petty for SWR and Austin Martin and roughly $21M year which obviously can be spent elsewhere.  I like their odds of getting equivalent value out of the $105M and I would trade SWR and Martin for Petty in a heartbeat at this point.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Your 3 most successful teams have combined for ONE World Series win in the last 47 years.  Twins have two.  Maybe we have different definitions of success.

That's fair.  We definitely have a different definition of success.  I collected data since the turn of the century.  Success can't be defined in one season for me.  I watch 100+ games every year and I want to see a good product as many years as possible.  Since the turn of the century, the Royals have had one 90 win season and they have the lowest win percentage in all of MLB.  Oakland has (10) 90-win seasons and the 4th best winning percentage in MLB.  Cleveland also has (10) 90-win seasons.  Tampa has 8.  It's not even remotely close for me.  3 weeks of a successful playoff run is not preferable to 20 years of watching a miserable team.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You only see what you want to see.  Berrios "level" since being traded has been below replacement level.  Gray is the only reasonable example of them replacing Berrios given the timeframe and circumstances and he was far better than Berrios.  Going forward, who knows but Berrios level so far is below Chris Archer.  Louie Varland provided .9 more bWAR in a handful of starts.  They added all of those other players in a misguided attempt to win the division and they would have not been in any better position if they had Berrios last year given his performance.

If I were to describe the impact of trading Berrios to date, he cost us absolutely nothing in terms of contributing to winning.  Long-term, we exchanged Chase Petty for SWR and Austin Martin and roughly $21M year which obviously can be spent elsewhere.  I like their odds of getting equivalent value out of the $105M and I would trade SWR and Martin for Petty in a heartbeat at this point.

And in doing so we wrote off a whole season.  One in which we invested $35 Million in a free agent. 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That's fair.  We definitely have a different definition of success.  I collected data since the turn of the century.  Success can't be defined in one season for me.  I watch 100+ games every year and I want to see a good product as many years as possible.  Since the turn of the century, the Royals have had one 90 win season and they have the lowest win percentage in all of MLB.  Oakland has (10) 90-win seasons and the 4th best winning percentage in MLB.  Cleveland also has (10) 90-win seasons.  Tampa has 8.  It's not even remotely close for me.  3 weeks of a successful playoff run is not preferable to 20 years of watching a miserable team.

You old enough to remember those 3 week successful playoff runs?

[Vanimal46]

15 hours ago, adorduan said:

When I saw SWR in august he was hitting 93-94 consistently and hit 95 a couple of times. I got to see Balazovic also and he was a mess. His delivery was way out of whack and the only thing he could throw for strikes was his fastball, with predictably bad results.  hopefully he can get back on track.

May have been a hot radar gun in St. Paul. Or maybe his arm got tired in September. His baseball savant page says his fastball velocity was 90.8 MPH. 

I think Balazovic will get back on track. Idk why they were allowing him to pitch most of last season with a bad knee. In 5 monitored September starts he had a 3.43 ERA with 12.9 K/9. That’s what I would love to see to start the year. If he does that he’ll be on the MLB team by June. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

You old enough to remember those 3 week successful playoff runs?

I had just graduated from college.  It was great but no way in hell as a fan would I trade KC's 25 years of futility with one 90 win season for what Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have provided in terms of a quality team to watch.  If a WS is all that matters to you, that's your prerogative.   I won't get that wrapped up in a goal that should be expected to be achieved once every 30 years if we get our prorated share.   Give me a 90+ win team as often as possible and I will take my chances in October.

BTW .... The Blue Jays / Phillies / Tigers / White Sox / Mets / Reds / Brewers / Rockies / Orioles / Pirates / Marlins and Padres have all had 4 or less 90-win seasons this century.   The big market teams simply have a huge advantage.

[beckmt]

What I see is that younger pitching has a chance, at least we see what they have.  Unless you have above average command and decent stuff by 33 - 35 you are probably finished as a major league pitcher.  I would still sign Gray or Mahle to an extension if there arms are sound, but not a long one and they are likely to get move in being a FA.  

Berrios we don't know.  Maybe he did not want to be here. Maybe the FO worked out his decline.  Unless we have inside information,  we will never know.  But we seemed to have dodged a bullet there. 

[adorduan]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

May have been a hot radar gun in St. Paul. Or maybe his arm got tired in September. His baseball savant page says his fastball velocity was 90.8 MPH. 

I think Balazovic will get back on track. Idk why they were allowing him to pitch most of last season with a bad knee. In 5 monitored September starts he had a 3.43 ERA with 12.9 K/9. That’s what I would love to see to start the year. If he does that he’ll be on the MLB team by June. 

Well, it wasn't in St Paul, it was in Des Moines, where I live. I have never noticed the gun to be fast but I guess it's possible. Striking out over a batter per inning is a pretty good trick if he only throws 90-91,

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 1/1/2023 at 11:50 AM, dxpavelka said:

I don't care if they make trades with the moon and Mars to get pitching.  Angst from the Berrios trade (at least mine) stems from the fact that we're now a year and a half in to it and we have FIVE big league innings pitched to show for it.  AND the fact  that we  traded away the best (only?) home grown pitching talent we've home grown in a generation AND the fact that the team we traded him to signed him to an extension that we easily should have been able to sign him to.

Did Berrios want to stay in Minnesota? I hope he did, but I don't know if what Jose Berrios wanted had anything to do with his trade to Toronto. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I had just graduated from college.  It was great but no way in hell as a fan would I trade KC's 25 years of futility with one 90 win season for what Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have provided in terms of a quality team to watch.  If a WS is all that matters to you, that's your prerogative.   I won't get that wrapped up in a goal that should be expected to be achieved once every 30 years if we get our prorated share.   Give me a 90+ win team as often as possible and I will take my chances in October.

BTW .... The Blue Jays / Phillies / Tigers / White Sox / Mets / Reds / Brewers / Rockies / Orioles / Pirates / Marlins and Padres have all had 4 or less 90-win seasons this century.   The big market teams simply have a huge advantage.

Just graduating from college means you weren't around for the "3 magical weeks" in 87 & 91.  As such, you have no clue of which you speak.  If the Twins never win another game, I'll die happy.  Now get the hell off my grass.

[dxpavelka]

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Did Berrios want to stay in Minnesota? I hope he did, but I don't know if what Jose Berrios wanted had anything to do with his trade to Toronto. 

We moved him a year and a half prior to free-agency.  Easy to say what he might or might not have wanted but bottom line is we had a year and a half of control left.  Foolish move.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

19 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

What do you guys think of Megill? I get he’s relegated to Pen, fine, but it seems he has two Plus pitches with his 98MPH & curveball. He’s similar to Duran w/o a 3rd pitch. Seems to me he’d be dominant by adding a 3rd pitch. To me, a cutter would be easiest to work on & master but a change-up would be equally effective. I also get one doesn’t just add a 3rd pitch w/o issues. He just seems to have such good stuff that a 3rd pitch used 15% of the time would not allow or minimize hitters ability to sit on one pitch.

His command could be better but nobody’s perfect. Am hoping new pitching coach - coaching staff can get him developed!!!

Thoughts on what others see with Megill?

His lack of command is the most glaring problem to me. 

[Twodogs]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I had just graduated from college.  It was great but no way in hell as a fan would I trade KC's 25 years of futility with one 90 win season for what Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have provided in terms of a quality team to watch.  If a WS is all that matters to you, that's your prerogative.   I won't get that wrapped up in a goal that should be expected to be achieved once every 30 years if we get our prorated share.   Give me a 90+ win team as often as possible and I will take my chances in October.

BTW .... The Blue Jays / Phillies / Tigers / White Sox / Mets / Reds / Brewers / Rockies / Orioles / Pirates / Marlins and Padres have all had 4 or less 90-win seasons this century.   The big market teams simply have a huge advantage.

But the Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Blue Jays, and to a lesser extent Tigers all come from pretty big markets.  If they have such an advantage from the big markets they are in, why have they been so futile?  In fact Minnesota is probably more in the middle of the pack than in the bottom of big to small markets in baseball.  

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

But the Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Blue Jays, and to a lesser extent Tigers all come from pretty big markets.  If they have such an advantage from the big markets they are in, why have they been so futile?  In fact Minnesota is probably more in the middle of the pack than in the bottom of big to small markets in baseball.  

Having an advantage doesn't mean you succeed. It's an advantage, not guarantee. 

[DocBauer]

On 1/1/2023 at 1:10 PM, Mike Sixel said:

As Doc pointed out, no one from the last two drafts is in the majors. They've essentially had four drafts to produce pitchers. They also need to take hitters. The real key is more trades, imo. Kepler and Arraez should be dealt for pitchers. 

And that's what's so frustrating to me! I also want to see the pipeline begin to produce. But this NOT the NFL or NBA draft where you get immediate or 2nd year results from draft picks!

When I laid out the progression of HS or college SP selections on page 1, I was using an example of a TOP selection who had ZERO injury setbacks or ANY refinement issues. In 2019, the Twins selected an electric arm in Canterino in the 2nd round. He's been pretty much dominate and exciting WHEN on the mound. But for arguement sake, let's just say he's been 100% healthy since the Twins "babied" him a bit after the draft and did what they did, and what most teams do, and he gets a few starts, or even a HALF season in A ball after being drafted. And remember, that's about all you get once a signing took place. 

So NOW, the 2020 milb season is canceled. Unless you are a team like the Tigers at that time, with no winning aspirations, how many 2019 draftees do you place at the alternate site with a limited roster? Do the Twins, coming off a division win, and thoughts of another in 2020, place a "rookie" on that roster with ZERO chance he's going to contribute to your team? 

Follow the logic now.

So in theory, a fully healthy Canterino, your talented 2nd round pick in 2019, who flashed in half a season of A ball in 2019 after being drafted, and going through instructs, goes to AA to begin 2021. And he looks so damn good that despite his limited experience, he's promoted mid year to AAA. And while you don't have to add him to the 40 man yet...and maybe don't want to...he gets a late season call up to start a few games. And he looks so good in his brief appearance there, that you just write his name in ink for the just completed 2022 season. And he's supposed to be what in 2022? An ACE? A top of the order #2 at least going in to 2023?

Get drafted. Miss a year. Dominate so well that you get a September audition, then  you're in the rotation in 2022 and ready to lead your staff in 2023? What kind of fantasy, everything goes beyond perfect world does this happen?

Do I like the changes in development structure in the milb system with our FO? ABSOLUTELY! Do I agree 100% with their draft philosophy? Not entirely. Do I think they blew the short/limited 2020 draft by outsmarting themselves and going for position players in a draft with a number of solid but not great college arms that MIGHT offer future rewards and ONLY select the good looking young Raya? ABSOLUTELY!

I am NOT an apologist for the FO. I like so much of what they've done. But I have some real issues in regard to a few drafts, and some FA signing possibilities and opportunities that I felt they just whiffed on! BUT, I understand a lot of the moves they HAVE made. History clearly shows, percentage wise, that Petty will either never turn out, or will be average, or move to the pen. That's just history. So while waiting for the pipeline to deliver quality arms, the FO has made moves to bring in quality arms to the team. 

We can lament the potential of Petty. (I hated to lose that potential as well). But I bet there's a ton of Ray's  fans upset they let Ryan go. And IF SWR becomes even a really good #3, at some point there are going to be a lot of upset fans that they traded him. 

How much fun was it watching Maeda on the mound for the Twins in 2020? It cost us a big arm that is a pretty good BP that still might turn out great. But I don't know about you, but I'd make that trade again a 100 times for 2020. 

Trades of prospects and players is how you build a team. Major League Ready had a TREMENDOUS post about how Cleveland built their pipeline of pitching. It's just NOT drafting arms and in a couple 2-4yrs they are ready to dominate. It's about drafting, development, and smart trades to get the right guys where and when.

We can all find mistakes in the FO. Paddack? Sheesh! ONLY if his 2nd surgery works and we'd like to re-sign him. Maeda? Great move. Gray and Mahle? I actually expect a pair of quality seasons from both now that the MLB world has gotten back to "normal". And I wouldn't doubt we'll be talking about extensions or offers for either, or both, at some time in 2023.

But there remains opportunity for the pipeline to continue to flow next year. Varland and SWR are just a part of what we've already seen, in various forms. And it's up to the FO TO MAKE IT WORK! That's on THEM. But some idea that we should have already developed an ACE or similar via the milb system at this point is rather "mjsguided" IMO.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

But the Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Blue Jays, and to a lesser extent Tigers all come from pretty big markets.  If they have such an advantage from the big markets they are in, why have they been so futile?  In fact Minnesota is probably more in the middle of the pack than in the bottom of big to small markets in baseball.  

Mike is right.  I would add that even the big markets have to develop talent.  The Dodgers, Astros, have been great a developing talent.  The Red Sox and Cardinals had a run too.  Those are the only big market teams that have compiled more 90 win seasons.  The Phillies, Mets, and Tigers have not.  Neither have the Giants of late which is why they are rather desperately trying to buy a team.  The White Sox and Jays had not developed talent until lately.

The Twins have not drafted / produced as much well-above average talent.  They also have not made the Berrios type trades nearly as often as Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa.  It might be fair to say they just have not those types of players that can bring back the long list of very good players that have made these 3 teams very good.

The draft unraveled nicely for us last year and then we got lucky this year.  Let's hope a bunch of this young talent comes together this year and we can have an extended run of good teams.

[Trov]

First, I think people have a crazy expectation of what a pipeline looks like.  It is not going to be an endless run of cy young guys.  What it hopefully will be is having guys, ready to step in when injuries set in, or guys get traded because near the end of their control years.  As Major League Ready point out in his comment, Cleveland would continue to trade their pitchers, during season or in offseason, even when competing to reload the pipeline.  

Many Twins fans got upset when we traded our top pitcher in a similar type deal.  What makes Cleveland, and Rays a team that continues to turn out talent, is they will continue to trade established MLB guys, at peak or near peak value, to reload.  They are good at identifying who to target and developing them.  They are also good at knowing when their guys are about to regress.  How many of the top Cleveland guys did better after they were sent away?  Only Bauer with Reds.  Rays have had a few guys do better after left, but they were never going to sign them either.  

There are a few ways to build your team.  No team hits on every way, so they need to try many different ways to do well.  Then some teams will be like Rays and Cleveland who will continue to trade away top guys to refill with prospects, some guys hit some miss.  The Royals, took different path on their WS runs.  They built a winning team, and had many guys set for FA all at the same time.  There was talk about should they trade some or all away to reload, or hang on for one more run.  They hung on for one more run, and did not win.  They got almost nothing in return for losing their top guys, and believe they even made some trades, could be wrong, to help build a contender again. 

The Royals won a WS and could have traded their top guys away to reload.  They were hoping to get a second WS, but never got that close again.  Now have been rebuilding.  I hate to say it, but if you want to continue to compete, unless you are paying above tax, you normally need to avoid long term deals to aging players, locking you in on diminished output years, and be willing to trade popular top players at peak of value.  

I am of the opinion, raise the floor of your overall team, and not have just super high ceilings for a couple of guys.  For pitching, a starter only pitches, even the best, about 1/7th to 1/8th of the innings.  That is if they get 200 plus innings.  Relief guys get even less.  Hitters get up only 1 out of every 9 times, and the best only get on base like 4 out 10 times, or less.  If you are loading up only on top talent, but have crap for the other 3 or 4 starts, a rotation, or 6 or 7 hitters, you will not be good.  Look at Angels for perfect example.  

[IA Bean Counter]

The pitching pipeline is finally starting to hit and will begin to help the Twins.  

Pipeline - Pitchers acquired or drafted 

Currently on MLB

 SP  Ryan, Ober, Winder            RP Duran, Alcala (both acquired before new management came on)

AAA Pitchers considered prospects

SP Varland, SWR,  Balazovic             RP  Canterino, Henriquez

AA (estimated level)

SP Headrick, Raya Mooney and Festa    RP  Cruz

A, A+ 

SP Priellip,  Medina Nowlin (any drafted prospects that develop)  

 

We had a strong core of pitching drafted in 2021 that was drafted away for current pitching.  There is a possibility this pipeline is further increased with trades at the deadline.  

MLB level

Ober and Winder all come down to health.  They may be better suited for the bullpen.  Alcala can be an elite pitcher in the bullpen if he regains his health.  

Both Varland and SWR look like durable pitchers that have the stuff to at least be #3 pitchers,  possibly #2.   I see very little possibility of either flaming out.  Both should their stuff was good enough for the MLB level at the end of last year.  Right now both Balazovic and Canterino are wild cards in my mind.  If I were to guess 1 will get their stuff and health figured out and regain their prospect status and become a main cog in the future as to who that is I am not sure.  

I am actually optimistic about the pipeline.  However I am generally a glass half full guy.  I think the biggest thing that appears to be lacking is a #1 pitcher in the pipeline.  We have one player in the MLB who could be that guy and it is Duran.  His stuff is elite.  I think they will likely leave him as our high usage reliever.   That leaves the prospects and the only individual who has the potential stuff that I see is potentially Priellip.  However I think that is not likely.  Maybe a Varland or SWR could outperform their stuff similar to many of the Guardians pitchers.  Our best chance at a future #1 comes in the 2023 draft with the #5 draft pick.  We can likely pick the #2 best pitching prospect in what is considered one of the best pitching drafts in the last decade.  The 2019-2022 drafts were all considered poor for pitching prospects.  In that aspect,  the pitchers that the Twins have found is actually pretty good considering the circumstances.  I do have to acknowledge we did send away our best chance at #1 pitcher to acquire Gray.  We can potentially get a SP prospect at the trade deadline for him,  but likely no one to the level of Petty (we will see if Petty pans out).