The Twins' Pitching Pipeline Hinges on Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

My initial thought, before reading, was, "Really? It's on these two kids?" But salient points all the way around. Nice article!

I am also impatient to see the pipeline actually start to produce fuel for the future. And while I will not make excuses for the FO...I believe in holding them accountable for all the good and not so good...I personally still offer them some slack for 2 primary reasons.

1] While we are all tired of it, the inevitable truth is all but a handful of prospects lost an entire season of development in 2020. Yes, every team was affected. And NO, not everyone was derailed in some way as some talented young pitchers...and position players... have reached the ML level and done well. (BTW, this includes various Twins as well). But some were just drafted in '18-'+19, and saw their development delayed. Again, this is true for all teams.

Additionally, Falvey and Levine have had 6 drafts thus far, including the most recent 2022 addition. It's not 7yrs, as some have stated. (Joined October of 2016). It would be unreasonable to expect anyone drafted in the '20-'22 drafts to be knocking on the proverbial door, much less breaking it down and being some sort of rotation mainstay. So the "pipeline" at this point would include anyone of relevance within the system before they came on board, as well as draftees from '17-'19. So even with the missed 2020 year, we're talking about a collection of HS and college arms from those 3 drafts being ready. Just to be real, a HS arm drafted in 2017 would have been in short season rookie ball. If he was a TOP prospect, he'd at least be in low A to begin 2018. Even if he as aggressively promoted straight to high A in 2018, he'd be looking at AA in 2019. Now, that's damn aggressive for a HS kid, but it happens from time to time. But then 2020 happens, and all but a few of top prospects sat out the year, with a few working out at an alternate site, trying to gain some experience. So in this scenario, a TOP HS prospect now reaches AAA in 2021, and MAYBE debuts at some point that year. So now, said TOP HS prospect is ready to have a FULL rookie season in 2022 for his team.

And this is just logical steps for a TOP prospect who has no injuries, no setbacks of any kind, and makes steady progress at every level.

And I understand an 18yo HS pitcher is different than a 21-22yo college draftee. But more times than not, that college pitcher goes to low A initially for what is a half season once signed. So there a half to a full season ahead of a HS draftee. And yes, they may be more mature physically and mentally, and advance more quickly. Simple logic. And thus, after having a half season of 2017, and 2 full seasons in '18-19, they might have debuted in 2020. Pretty sure a couple did, but not going to dig through 30 teams to see the few who did. So that leaves 2021 as either their debut, or 1st full seasons at the ML level. 

This is NOT making excuses to the FO, or the "pipeline", this is just NORMAL draft and develop timeliness that would fit most ANY drafted prospect. 

2] The idea that someone you didn't sign or draft being a "non-developmental" prospect is absurd to me. You aquire talent in a number of ways, including trades. The fact that Ryan has looked pretty damn good, with potential, is on the Twins. The fact that Duran has been developed and converted is on the Twins. Jax's conversion looks sustainable. Moran's continued improvement is on the Twins. Ober's very nice debut, and his development, in 2021, and his quality results in 2022 when healthy, is on the Twins. Early debuts by Winder, Sands, Varland, SWR, is on the Twins. Hell, the initially solid debut from Dobnak, is on the Twins. (A healthy Dobber might surprise yet as rotation depth).

And when I say "on the Twins", I mean the current FO and their coaches from the ML on down, and all their instructors. We have NOT seen what we want to see yet. And I'm as frustrated and anxious as anyone to see the proverbial "pipeline" deliver. But to a degree, we HAVE started to see the pipeline deliver. And if you take a step back and honestly look at everything I stated above, which is a PERFECT developmental scenario...which seldom happens...don't you have to realize that we're just starting to see the fruits of labor potentially blooming?

Impatience and frustration are easy. Patience and perspective is much harder. 

 

Really great post Doc. Well reasoned and well written.  Your post is the perfect compliment to the well written article by Lou. And I say this, even though I still don't like trading Petty. But I must admit that I have really enjoyed watching Sonny Gray pitch. He is a true professional, gutsy, top of the rotation pitcher. I hope the Twins will be able to extend  Gray. And I hope that Chase Petty has a long successful career, where ever he ma be pitching.

[DJL44]

The Twins are likely to get two strong, cheap seasons out of Sonny Gray. He is a no-brainer to give a qualifying offer to as a free agent which means the Twins are likely to get a high draft pick as well. Then they can draft their next Chase Petty.

[DJL44]

I think the Twins will regret taking their best pitcher since Berrios and leaving him in the bullpen.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

"Pitching is the coin of the realm"  Outstanding writing Ash.  You also added the "standing at the station" analogy, which unfortunately accurately describes the Twins current situation. Well done.

My freshman English teacher might look at that same sentence and deduct half a grade due to the mixed metaphors.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Clevinger was acquired via trade in 2014.  He debuted in 2016 at age 25.  They eventually traded him for Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor and Own Miller.  

Kluber also debuted in 2016.  They got him by trading Jake Westbrook in 2013.  They eventually traded Kluber for Emmanuel Clase who was ML ready.  

They acquired Carlos Corrasco for Cliff Lee.  Cleveland acquired Lee a year before he debuted for Bortolo Colon.  Colon was acquired in the international draft.  So, the way that went was they drafted Colon and eventually traded him for Cliff Lee who they eventually traded for Carlos Corrasco who they eventually traded along with Francisco Lindor for Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez.  The two of them produced 10 WAR last year. 

Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw were ML ready when Cleveland acquired them by trading Sin Soo Choo and Tony Sipp.

Konnoe Pilkington was also acquired as a prospect.

I keep hearing people calling for them to do what they did in Cleveland.  However, much of Cleveland's most important pitching pipeline as well as their current position players were acquired by trading established players for prospects.  Basically, they did several Jose Berrios type trades.  There was a great deal of angst here when they did that trade.  Some people are still complaining and saying they were not serious about building a contender when in fact similar trades had been a huge part of Cleveland’s success over the past couple of decades.  They would have been a lot closer to the Royals over the past 20 years if not for trading established players for prospects.

 

I don't care if they make trades with the moon and Mars to get pitching.  Angst from the Berrios trade (at least mine) stems from the fact that we're now a year and a half in to it and we have FIVE big league innings pitched to show for it.  AND the fact  that we  traded away the best (only?) home grown pitching talent we've home grown in a generation AND the fact that the team we traded him to signed him to an extension that we easily should have been able to sign him to.

[Vanimal46]

SWR and Varland are the flavors of the month because of their cups of coffee last September. Seems that most have either forgotten or written off the pitcher with the highest upside out of the group… Jordan Balazovic. My hawt taek is he leapfrogs both Varland and SWR with a strong start in St. Paul. 

SWR to me appears to be a decent floor, low ceiling pitcher. If he’s only sitting at 91-92 MPH, that’s not enough to elevate him to a mid or top of the rotation guy. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I don't care if they make trades with the moon and Mars to get pitching.  Angst from the Berrios trade (at least mine) stems from the fact that we're now a year and a half in to it and we have FIVE big league innings pitched to show for it.  AND the fact  that we  traded away the best (only?) home grown pitching talent we've home grown in a generation AND the fact that the team we traded him to signed him to an extension that we easily should have been able to sign him to.

You are doing a great job of illustrating my point.  Cleveland has a very well-documented record that shows their sustained success has been greatly influenced by making Berrios type trades.  Yet, your post indicates disdain because the result is not immediate which is my point.  Fans don't want to follow the practices that have made Cleveland and for that matter Oakland and Tampa successful.  You want immediate impact.  

Here is how I see the Berrios trade as of today.  I would guess Berrios will bounce back but the fact that he had negative bWAR does not scream mistake.  SWR could end up producing as well as Berrios over the next 6-7 years.  This is how I would take Cleveland's strategy and adapt it to our situation next year.  I will take the roughly $21M AAV over the next 5 years and add $9M AAV and sign someone like Nola.  I am not saying they will I am saying this could be done.  For $11M you upgrade from Berrios and add SWR and Martin.  That easily has the potential to produce 10 WAR for $11M.  Cleveland's success has been a product of executing these deals.

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not comparing them. I just questioned the wisdom of trading a number one pick like Petty.  If we had them rated that high it's pretty hard to see giving up when we need to get the pipeline going. 

They didn't give up on him. They traded a HS pitcher for a good veteran. 

[Mike Sixel]

As Doc pointed out, no one from the last two drafts is in the majors. They've essentially had four drafts to produce pitchers. They also need to take hitters. The real key is more trades, imo. Kepler and Arraez should be dealt for pitchers. 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

You are doing a great job of illustrating my point.  Cleveland has a very well-documented record that shows their sustained success has been greatly influenced by making Berrios type trades.  Yet, your post indicates disdain because the result is not immediate which is my point.  Fans don't want to follow the practices that have made Cleveland and for that matter Oakland and Tampa successful.  You want immediate impact.  

Here is how I see the Berrios trade as of today.  I would guess Berrios will bounce back but the fact that he had negative bWAR does not scream mistake.  SWR could end up producing as well as Berrios over the next 6-7 years.  This is how I would take Cleveland's strategy and adapt it to our situation next year.  I will take the roughly $21M AAV over the next 5 years and add $9M AAV and sign someone like Nola.  I am not saying they will I am saying this could be done.  For $11M you upgrade from Berrios and add SWR and Martin.  That easily has the potential to produce 10 WAR for $11M.  Cleveland's success has been a product of executing these deals.

If Woods Richardson produces as well as Berrios over the next 6-7 years he'll likely be on the move in 3-4.  This team is never going to compete for big name free agent talent.  But when they grow their own the can compete to keep it.  They NEED to compete to keep it.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

As Doc pointed out, no one from the last two drafts is in the majors. They've essentially had four drafts to produce pitchers. They also need to take hitters. The real key is more trades, imo. Kepler and Arraez should be dealt for pitchers. 

As you are well-aware, teams trading for players like Arraez and Kepler generally don't want to trade established players.  Would you be willing to trade them for AAA guys or unproven ML players like Cleveland got in Gimenz / Rosario / Naylor and Clause?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

If Woods Richardson produces as well as Berrios over the next 6-7 years he'll likely be on the move in 3-4.  This team is never going to compete for big name free agent talent.  But when they grow their own the can compete to keep it.  They NEED to compete to keep it.

Are you saying Cleveland has not benefited greatly by trading these players or are you saying just don't care if it's worked or not.  You still believe they must retain Jose Berrios as an example.   

[se7799]

17 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not comparing them. I just questioned the wisdom of trading a number one pick like Petty.  If we had them rated that high it's pretty hard to see giving up when we need to get the pipeline going. 

I believe it is solid wisdom.  We gave up a lot less for Sonny G.  as compared to what the Blue Jay's gave up for Jose Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

As you are well-aware, teams trading for players like Arraez and Kepler generally don't want to trade established players.  Would you be willing to trade them for AAA guys or unproven ML players like Cleveland got in Gimenz / Rosario / Naylor and Clause?

Yes. I want AA pitchers. 

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes. I want AA pitchers. 

Are you thinking timeline or value?  I could see either or both but that timing might be ideal, especially if we believe Varland and SWR are ready.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you thinking timeline or value?  I could see either or both but that timing might be ideal, especially if we believe Varland and SWR are ready.

Value and a bit of timing. But I want the best prospects they can get. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

As you are well-aware, teams trading for players like Arraez and Kepler generally don't want to trade established players.  Would you be willing to trade them for AAA guys or unproven ML players like Cleveland got in Gimenz / Rosario / Naylor and Clause?

I am willing for the Twins to gamble on trading Arraez, Larnach or Kepler for Edward Cabrera. I would like to see an expanded trade even to add either Meyer or Luzardo to the deal. The Twins have corner players and even some others like Noah Miller in A ball to offer. I'm also willing to trade Gray to San Diego for Dylan Lesko. Give the kids a shot because the Twins have a chance if the younger players develop and play. 

[Twodogs]

I think any pitcher that the Twins currently have are part of the pipeline.  I mean Maeda got here with the Grateral trade, but I think where the front office comes into question is that the crop of guys coming up through the system seems weak.  I mean it was brought up that Cleveland still has guys coming through the system.  They know that when they get rid of a Bauer, Kluber, Clevenger, Carrasco, Colon, Lee, etc..... that they have replacements already on their way.  So that's where I question whether the FO actually has some magical method that produces a pipeline or if it was the Cleveland organization, their developmental team and coaches.  I mean it's quite possible that if all of the Twins guys over the last 6 years or so had gone through the Cleveland system that they'd have a bunch of all star pitchers.  What I think is that too much focus and or credit is being given to Falvine and their abilities.  I think that they are just figure heads and that if the twins get a pipeline going it's going to come from whoever develops these guys.  Falvine just provides some clay, the coaches and development team are the ones who create the final products.  

 

That's why every in year during free agency I always suggest forgetting so much about free agents and find an out how much money it would take to pry away the guys in Houston's or LA Dodgers organizations development teams and go out and sign those guys.  Because they seem to continue to produce players year after year.  I'm sure those guys have a price.  I mean how many other teams can just let Carlos Correa go and have a Pena sitting there ready to take over?  

[adorduan]

I got to see both of these guys in August in AAA. Both had good stuff. Varland's delivery seemed like it would be more repeatable, but both have a chance to be decent at the MLB level, IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Karbo said:

The only way Maeda moves to the pen is if he isn't healthy enough to start, due to the agreement he has with the Twins.

I understand his compensation is set up that way. If his agreement reads that way it, seems (he has to start if healthy enough to start) gray on who makes the determination of health? Not trying to slight him on $ (if healthy, I would re-work $ if Team beneficial from Pen) - if he can help more & ease back after surgery for 10-12 weeks out of the Pen it seems beneficial for both parties!

If he’s locked in as a starter not sure why there’s been any talk about signing FA pitching the last 2 months?

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

You know what, you’re right, that is a FA board. They only discussed the draft in the book. When I googled it I thought “this seems small for a draft board, dang it Hollywood.”

it’s a tough decision, but Freight Train’s discerning eye at the plate is just too good to pass up. 

 

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you saying Cleveland has not benefited greatly by trading these players or are you saying just don't care if it's worked or not.  You still believe they must retain Jose Berrios as an example.   

One you grow ONE home grown pitcher in a generation ya gotta find a way to not let him go.

[adorduan]

7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

SWR and Varland are the flavors of the month because of their cups of coffee last September. Seems that most have either forgotten or written off the pitcher with the highest upside out of the group… Jordan Balazovic. My hawt taek is he leapfrogs both Varland and SWR with a strong start in St. Paul. 

SWR to me appears to be a decent floor, low ceiling pitcher. If he’s only sitting at 91-92 MPH, that’s not enough to elevate him to a mid or top of the rotation guy. 

When I saw SWR in august he was hitting 93-94 consistently and hit 95 a couple of times. I got to see Balazovic also and he was a mess. His delivery was way out of whack and the only thing he could throw for strikes was his fastball, with predictably bad results.  hopefully he can get back on track.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I am willing for the Twins to gamble on trading Arraez, Larnach or Kepler for Edward Cabrera. I would like to see an expanded trade even to add either Meyer or Luzardo to the deal. The Twins have corner players and even some others like Noah Miller in A ball to offer. I'm also willing to trade Gray to San Diego for Dylan Lesko. Give the kids a shot because the Twins have a chance if the younger players develop and play. 

First & foremost we need to compete, like 90% of the other teams in MLB……”giving the kids a shot” is what AAA is all about. Sorry, keep reading this & want us to focus on winning. Obviously, the Show needs to be experienced at some point but making trades with the batting Champ - (4 year career .313 BA) so some kids get a chance, makes no sense.

Kepler is going to be traded. Who we can wrap up with him is for debate. Larnach is high end prospect and should command value…..I agree we need more pitching if available. Can’t trade the, arguably, only consistent bat in the line-up. No problem with Kepler - even Larnach - somebody else on the prospect side being lumped together for an arm. Seems Marlins already traded in starter…..not sure how many arms they have to move? Pitching wins games - agreed!!

 

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, adorduan said:

When I saw SWR in august he was hitting 93-94 consistently and hit 95 a couple of times. I got to see Balazovic also and he was a mess. His delivery was way out of whack and the only thing he could throw for strikes was his fastball, with predictably bad results.  hopefully he can get back on track.

What do you guys think of Megill? I get he’s relegated to Pen, fine, but it seems he has two Plus pitches with his 98MPH & curveball. He’s similar to Duran w/o a 3rd pitch. Seems to me he’d be dominant by adding a 3rd pitch. To me, a cutter would be easiest to work on & master but a change-up would be equally effective. I also get one doesn’t just add a 3rd pitch w/o issues. He just seems to have such good stuff that a 3rd pitch used 15% of the time would not allow or minimize hitters ability to sit on one pitch.

His command could be better but nobody’s perfect. Am hoping new pitching coach - coaching staff can get him developed!!!

Thoughts on what others see with Megill?

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

 

One you grow ONE home grown pitcher in a generation ya gotta find a way to not let him go.

There are 3 teams in the bottom half of revenue that have been far more successful than the other teams in this revenue class.  The Twins are the 4th most successful.  Cleveland / Oakland and Tampa's have been by far the most successful and an enormous part of that success has been trading players like Berrios.  You are insisting on a premise that history has shown to be patently false.  These trades have risk as well as enormous upside.  

Who knows how SWR and Berrios will compare but if SWR matches Berrios, the net gain for the Twins is Martin and roughly $90M+ (the $105M paid to Berrios over the next 5 years lest the cost of SWR's 1st 5 years) to spend on whatever free agent they can attract.  Berrios had negative WAR last year so he is not a sure thing.  If they can match whatever Berrios produces with the "Berrios money",  The net gain is SWR and Martin. Why is it not feasible they could sign another SP with the Berrios money that will be just as productive.   Trading Berrios has much more upside than extending him.

I am a big fan of taking on the risk of extending players early when it leads to a below market rate for accepting the risk.  Berrios was not willing.   Signing him was no more valuable or crucial than signing any other free agent SP of the same caliber.

[dxpavelka]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There are 3 teams in the bottom half of revenue that have been far more successful than the other teams in this revenue class.  The Twins are the 4th most successful.  Cleveland / Oakland and Tampa's have been by far the most successful and an enormous part of that success has been trading players like Berrios.  You are insisting on a premise that history has shown to be patently false.  These trades have risk as well as enormous upside.  

Who knows how SWR and Berrios will compare but if SWR matches Berrios, the net gain for the Twins is Martin and roughly $90M+ (the $105M paid to Berrios over the next 5 years lest the cost of SWR's 1st 5 years) to spend on whatever free agent they can attract.  Berrios had negative WAR last year so he is not a sure thing.  If they can match whatever Berrios produces with the "Berrios money",  The net gain is SWR and Martin. Why is it not feasible they could sign another SP with the Berrios money that will be just as productive.   Trading Berrios has much more upside than extending him.

I am a big fan of taking on the risk of extending players early when it leads to a below market rate for accepting the risk.  Berrios was not willing.   Signing him was no more valuable or crucial than signing any other free agent SP of the same caliber.

Your 3 most successful teams have combined for ONE World Series win in the last 47 years.  Twins have two.  Maybe we have different definitions of success.

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Your 3 most successful teams have combined for ONE World Series win in the last 47 years.  Twins have two.  Maybe we have different definitions of success.

Man…you gotta come up with a better example than Berrios. As of now, that looks like the PERFECT sell-high move for someone that was actually overrated by the market. Didn’t hurt the team in any meaningful manner in the short term, and has a chance to help significant in the future. Maybe it will look different in 9 months, true. But there’s also a chance that it will look even better in 9 months.

[jkcarew]

Meanwhile, expectations for Varland are getting ahead of themselves, IMHO.

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They didn't give up on him. They traded a HS pitcher for a good veteran. 

I hope so, but let's wait and see

 

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, se7799 said:

I believe it is solid wisdom.  We gave up a lot less for Sonny G.  as compared to what the Blue Jay's gave up for Jose Berrios.

That does not impact me.  What other teams choose to do does not make us smarter or better.