The Twins' Pitching Pipeline Hinges on Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson

[Lou Hennessy]

Twins fans find themselves anxiously waiting for a starting pitcher to truly break out and lead the team to success. While veterans that were acquired from outside the organization such as Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda all have the ability to carry a rotation, many are craving a breakthrough from an arm on the prospect level.

Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

When the Minnesota Twins hired Derek Falvey to lead their baseball operations department after the 2016 season, they were enticed by the successful pitching pipeline that he helped foster in Cleveland. His former team had just won the American League pennant on the backs of star pitchers Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco, as well as depth starters Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar, and Josh Tomlin. 

Six years later, that type of pitching pipeline is still taking shape in Minnesota. Many expected to see that door fully opened heading into year number seven, but instead, it appears to be hanging off of two hinges. 

Those hinges are Simeon Woods Richardson (Twins Daily’s No. 5 prospect) and Louie Varland (No. 7 prospect).

That doesn’t mean that the team will require two rookies to lead them to the World Series in order to be successful. But if they fall flat in 2023, or break down, the entire door comes down with them. 

Two factors work in the Twins’ favor when taking this into account. First, as of today, neither Woods Richardson nor Varland is penciled into the opening day starting rotation. The club isn’t relying on them to make an immediate impact, so they should be able to fine-tune their stuff in Triple-A St. Paul until the club deems them ready. However, there should be an expectation that they play an integral role with the big league club by the second half of the season if all goes well. 

Second, both pitchers are coming off of very successful and healthy seasons in 2022. 

Starting with Varland, expectations started to rise last off-season after he was named the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He went on to dazzle at Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, twirling 126 innings of 3.06 ERA ball before getting the call to the major leagues. 

With the Twins, he made five starts, most of which were quite promising. The lone hiccup was a five-inning effort against Cleveland where he allowed four earned runs on nine hits and two walks. The other four starts were enough to deem his debut cup of coffee as a very promising start to a hopefully long career with the Twins. 

Woods Richardson wasn’t the centerpiece of the trade that sent Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline, but he was a significant selling point. Austin Martin had more prospect shine at the time, but Woods Richardson’s inclusion pushed the deal across the finish line. This past season was his first full campaign in the Twins’ organization, and he made a really solid impression with his new club. In 23 appearances (22 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A, the tall righty pitched 107 innings with a sterling 2.77 ERA and 115 strikeouts. That earned him a call to the major leagues in the season’s final week, where he allowed two earned runs across five innings in his MLB debut. 

So what are reasonable expectations for these promising young starters as we head into a pivotal season for this front-office regime? According to Baseball Savant, Varland’s pitches shared many of the same characteristics as Cleveland’s breakout starter, Cal Quantrill, albeit with a slightly adjusted repertoire. The Guardians’ righty had a terrific 3.38 ERA across 32 starts last year. 

Does that mean that Varland should be a lock for these results? Of course not. But it’s interesting to see the comparison to somebody currently producing at the end of the pitching pipeline that the Twins are trying to emulate. 

So in that same vein, is there another pitcher in the Cleveland rotation that could be a possible comparison for Woods Richardson? One of the biggest breakout pitchers in 2022 was Triston McKenzie, who dazzled in 30 starts, pitching to the tune of a 2.96 ERA across 191 innings. It’s hard to expect anything like that out of Woods Richardson in 2023, but he could continue to develop into that caliber of pitcher as his career progresses. Steamer projects him to have a 4.69 ERA, with a 7.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 2023. His strikeout projection feels low seeing as he had a 9.6 K/9 in the minors just last year, but aside from that, this projection looks rather similar to McKenzie’s first full season at the MLB level in 2021. That year, he had a 4.95 ERA across 24 starts, with a 10.2 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. While rather unexciting on the surface, that comp feels far more fitting for the 23-year-old rookie.

Sure, the Quantrill and McKenzie comparisons are far from perfect, but if Varland and Woods Richardson can prove that they are in a similar mold, it could convince many that the door to an effective pitching pipeline still works. 

These two are hardly the only promising arms in the Twins’ system. Players such as Jordan Balazovic, David Festa, and Marco Raya all offer different levels of hope that they could turn into contributors at the big league level. But Varland and Woods Richardson are on the cusp of tightening the screws and solidifying themselves in the club’s pitching corps. If they fall flat or succumb to significant injuries much like Josh Winder and Bailey Ober, the door may just fall off the frame. 

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[Nashvilletwin]

To best capitalise on our emerging core (and for Falvey’s future with the Twins), the starting rotation in ‘24 at a minimum should include: a) Ryan, b) the reupped winner of the Mahle, Maeda, Gray sweepstakes, and c) at least two of Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, and Balazovic. 
 

Best case scenario is that three of the youngsters make it and we end of with four quality starters on minimum contracts and under control. That way, if we somehow screw up the Mahle/Maeda/Gray sweepstakes (either all three aren’t very good or none of them want to stay here), we still have more than enough capital to commit to a strong #2 type in next year’s FA market.  

[Deadfan]

I agree with everything said, but I think all of our patience is growing thin waiting on the promise of some gold coming out of the end of this pipeline. 

 

[strumdatjag]

Sonny Gray is a nice piece of the rotation.  But the Twins gave up a big pitching prospect on Chase Petty.  Petty is 19 years old and already pitched High A ball last year.  I’m disappointed in the current numbers of quality pitching prospects in the pipeline. 

[JD-TWINS]

These guys have undeniable upside! I like the fact that we have $ to sign a Vet starter in FA. I think Cueto to start the year as insurance and letting these 2 young guys develop a bit more makes sense. Also, a Vet signing would have enough cache’ to move Maeda to the Pen. I think that’s his best value in ‘23 off surgery.

If Ober slips up or anyone is hurt out of other 4 guys, then you bring Varland or SWR. They contribute in ‘23 but are brought in slowly & as needed.

[jmlease1]

I'm a big fan of SWR. His development was very much screwed up at the time the Twins got him (Olympics, pandemic, fast promotion, etc). The talent has always been there, he really needed health, game experience, and a consistent development program. He mostly had that last season (the time missed to covid was really the only hiccup) and as a result you saw the pitcher who was such a highly touted prospect. He was very good at AA, and didn't backslide at all when he was moved up on merit to AAA. He pitched a career high in innings even with missing some time, he got his BB/9 back to a reasonable area, and while the K/9 slid back a little it was still very respectable. He was hard to hit, and didn't look scared in his first MLB start. And he's just turned 22.

 

[Doctor Gast]

6 yrs. waiting for the pipeline to gush front line SPs. So far just a trickle with only Ober & Winder and maybe you can count Wells (BAL) with a lot of failures. IMO Ober & Winder would have fared better if they were taken slower & used as long relief/ spot starter. Because of this set back they should be put on the long relief/ spot starter along with Maeda, Varland & SWR should also be eased into the rotation by being used as long relief/ spot starter. Hopefully then this pipeline will look a lot better.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

It would be interesting to know how many years it took for Cleveland to build up that pipeline.  I hate criticizing the FO without knowing the answer to that question.  Maybe the breakout year is still 2 years down the road.

[mike8791]

Nice article Lou!  You've summarized the current state of the Twins pipeline succinctly : and then there were two.  In the 7 years of the Falvey reign, his pipeline has turned into a trickle.  Other than the 2 mentioned, there is no one else in the org. who looks primed to step up and fill a starting position in '23 or '24.  And while SWR and Varland are good prospects, they have not yet been rated "elite" by any of the scouting services.  When you add the fact that not one drafted pitcher by Falvey has developed into a late-inning stopper, this whole pitching development program looks more and more like System Failure 2.0.

The one bright side to these 7 years has been their ability to fill some of the holes by trade.  Starting with trades/FA pickups like Odorrizi, Pineda, Maeda, Ryan, Gray, and Duran, the FO has shown the ability to unearth some pretty good talent.  The problem is there is no clear ace on the current roster, nor do Varland/SWR look the part.  After having punted again in the FA sweepstakes, the regime is now counting on improvement by trade or bottom feeding in the FA market.  The problem is the Twins have 3 of their starters coming off the books next year, leaving the cupboard bare(unless they are willing to sign Gray and Mahle to bigger, long term contracts).   What are the chances of that with this risk-averse FO?

So what sort of a trade might provide the long-sought "ace" who could be expected to be a stopper?  On Zone Coverage, you introduced 3 trade targets who, more than the Lopez's of the world, have more top-side potentiaL: Gausman(TB), May(LAD), or Montas(NYY).  Are any of these 3 really available and can we put together a package that might nab one of them without sacrificing top prospects like Lee, Lewis, SWR and/or Varland?  Would you put Ober in a package or is his value to the Twins not worth the risk.?  Your ideas are intriguing but are they at all realistic?  Looking forward to hearing your ought processes.

 

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It would be interesting to know how many years it took for Cleveland to build up that pipeline.  I hate criticizing the FO without knowing the answer to that question.  Maybe the breakout year is still 2 years down the road.

Cleveland still has #15 and #53 on MLB.com prospect list - two more pitchers ready to come up and step in.

The Twins have Lee and Lewis and Rodriquez - no one else in the top 100 - can they pitch?

Chase Petty is #9 on the Reds prospect list, Our top prospect is Connor Prielipp at #4 and he has not even pitched professionally yet.  Richardson at #6, 

Let's get that pipeline going.

 

[Melissa Berman]

Super detailed and well-written article. Happy to have you aboard!

[ashbury]

I'm quibbling only on a side comment, but for me the Berrios trade was all about SWR, and Martin was the necessary sweetener.  Pitching is the coin of the realm in MLB and if you continually trade your pitching talent for hitters you'll always be standing at the train station wondering how you missed the express yet again.  I'd have preferred two pitching prospects in return for 1.5 years of Berrios control but evidently Toronto stood firm.  If SWR flops, which is the risk for any prospect, I don't care about Martin unless he turns into the next Jose Altuve or similar.

The "new" FO has been in charge since the 2016-17 off-season.  So this is now their seventh go-round.  FA signings are always needed, but it's time for some results on young controllable difference-makers to be the basis of sustainable success.  The two pitchers you named are as good as any if that success is to occur.

[se7799]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Cleveland still has #15 and #53 on MLB.com prospect list - two more pitchers ready to come up and step in.

The Twins have Lee and Lewis and Rodriquez - no one else in the top 100 - can they pitch?

Chase Petty is #9 on the Reds prospect list, Our top prospect is Connor Prielipp at #4 and he has not even pitched professionally yet.  Richardson at #6, 

Let's get that pipeline going.

 

So would you trade either SWR or Conner for Petty the Reds #9 prospect?

[DocBauer]

My initial thought, before reading, was, "Really? It's on these two kids?" But salient points all the way around. Nice article!

I am also impatient to see the pipeline actually start to produce fuel for the future. And while I will not make excuses for the FO...I believe in holding them accountable for all the good and not so good...I personally still offer them some slack for 2 primary reasons.

1] While we are all tired of it, the inevitable truth is all but a handful of prospects lost an entire season of development in 2020. Yes, every team was affected. And NO, not everyone was derailed in some way as some talented young pitchers...and position players... have reached the ML level and done well. (BTW, this includes various Twins as well). But some were just drafted in '18-'+19, and saw their development delayed. Again, this is true for all teams.

Additionally, Falvey and Levine have had 6 drafts thus far, including the most recent 2022 addition. It's not 7yrs, as some have stated. (Joined October of 2016). It would be unreasonable to expect anyone drafted in the '20-'22 drafts to be knocking on the proverbial door, much less breaking it down and being some sort of rotation mainstay. So the "pipeline" at this point would include anyone of relevance within the system before they came on board, as well as draftees from '17-'19. So even with the missed 2020 year, we're talking about a collection of HS and college arms from those 3 drafts being ready. Just to be real, a HS arm drafted in 2017 would have been in short season rookie ball. If he was a TOP prospect, he'd at least be in low A to begin 2018. Even if he as aggressively promoted straight to high A in 2018, he'd be looking at AA in 2019. Now, that's damn aggressive for a HS kid, but it happens from time to time. But then 2020 happens, and all but a few of top prospects sat out the year, with a few working out at an alternate site, trying to gain some experience. So in this scenario, a TOP HS prospect now reaches AAA in 2021, and MAYBE debuts at some point that year. So now, said TOP HS prospect is ready to have a FULL rookie season in 2022 for his team.

And this is just logical steps for a TOP prospect who has no injuries, no setbacks of any kind, and makes steady progress at every level.

And I understand an 18yo HS pitcher is different than a 21-22yo college draftee. But more times than not, that college pitcher goes to low A initially for what is a half season once signed. So there a half to a full season ahead of a HS draftee. And yes, they may be more mature physically and mentally, and advance more quickly. Simple logic. And thus, after having a half season of 2017, and 2 full seasons in '18-19, they might have debuted in 2020. Pretty sure a couple did, but not going to dig through 30 teams to see the few who did. So that leaves 2021 as either their debut, or 1st full seasons at the ML level. 

This is NOT making excuses to the FO, or the "pipeline", this is just NORMAL draft and develop timeliness that would fit most ANY drafted prospect. 

2] The idea that someone you didn't sign or draft being a "non-developmental" prospect is absurd to me. You aquire talent in a number of ways, including trades. The fact that Ryan has looked pretty damn good, with potential, is on the Twins. The fact that Duran has been developed and converted is on the Twins. Jax's conversion looks sustainable. Moran's continued improvement is on the Twins. Ober's very nice debut, and his development, in 2021, and his quality results in 2022 when healthy, is on the Twins. Early debuts by Winder, Sands, Varland, SWR, is on the Twins. Hell, the initially solid debut from Dobnak, is on the Twins. (A healthy Dobber might surprise yet as rotation depth).

And when I say "on the Twins", I mean the current FO and their coaches from the ML on down, and all their instructors. We have NOT seen what we want to see yet. And I'm as frustrated and anxious as anyone to see the proverbial "pipeline" deliver. But to a degree, we HAVE started to see the pipeline deliver. And if you take a step back and honestly look at everything I stated above, which is a PERFECT developmental scenario...which seldom happens...don't you have to realize that we're just starting to see the fruits of labor potentially blooming?

Impatience and frustration are easy. Patience and perspective is much harder. 

 

[heresthething]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Cleveland still has #15 and #53 on MLB.com prospect list - two more pitchers ready to come up and step in.

The Twins have Lee and Lewis and Rodriquez - no one else in the top 100 - can they pitch?

Chase Petty is #9 on the Reds prospect list, Our top prospect is Connor Prielipp at #4 and he has not even pitched professionally yet.  Richardson at #6, 

Let's get that pipeline going.

 

So what is it about the Cleveland franchise that is so different from the Twins that they seemingly keep finding these pitchers?  And what part of that continued Cleveland success was Falvey really part of?  We keep hearing from him it's all about the process, so what is the process then?  What is Falvey either not duplicating for process or maybe he can't because at the heart of that process is evaluating and drafting/trading the right guys.  And who is doing that job in Cleveland cause it doesn't seem to show signs of slowing down.

Lots of questions and he's had 6 years to show something for his process, if he was supposed to be an expert at it this isn't how it's supposed to turn out.

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

6 yrs. waiting for the pipeline to gush front line SPs. So far just a trickle with only Ober & Winder and maybe you can count Wells (BAL) with a lot of failures. IMO Ober & Winder would have fared better if they were taken slower & used as long relief/ spot starter. Because of this set back they should be put on the long relief/ spot starter along with Maeda, Varland & SWR should also be eased into the rotation by being used as long relief/ spot starter. Hopefully then this pipeline will look a lot better.

I count Ryan. Cleveland’s initial pipeline was made up of players acquired in trade. Some like Ryan were not global top prospects. 

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, se7799 said:

So would you trade either SWR or Conner for Petty the Reds #9 prospect?

I don't know - but maybe it would be possible.  Not sure why you are asking

[se7799]

41 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I don't know - but maybe it would be possible.  Not sure why you are asking

Just wanted to get your take on how you rated Petty to our current pitching prospects.  I thought you were comparing them.

[mikelink45]

10 hours ago, se7799 said:

Just wanted to get your take on how you rated Petty to our current pitching prospects.  I thought you were comparing them.

Not comparing them. I just questioned the wisdom of trading a number one pick like Petty.  If we had them rated that high it's pretty hard to see giving up when we need to get the pipeline going. 

[davidborton]

11 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Quote

I'm a big fan of SWR. His development was very much screwed up at the time the Twins got him (Olympics, pandemic, fast promotion, etc). The talent has always been there, he really needed health, game experience, and a consistent development program. 

Saw SWR at St Paul, not Twins, and watched him closely. His delivery is all upper body/arm driven. Amazed that no one on the minor coaching staff hasn't had him work on using his legs in his pitching. Use them for linear energy/velocity and save the arm.

Saw Verlander come back from TJ Surg and his thighs had increased in size. Wise old man.

 

 

[dxpavelka]

The fairy tale ending would be one of the two spending significant time in the rotation and the other being blocked by Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Winder & Paddack.  Hey, a guy can dream.

[Major League Ready]

Clevinger was acquired via trade in 2014.  He debuted in 2016 at age 25.  They eventually traded him for Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor and Own Miller.  

Kluber also debuted in 2016.  They got him by trading Jake Westbrook in 2013.  They eventually traded Kluber for Emmanuel Clase who was ML ready.  

They acquired Carlos Corrasco for Cliff Lee.  Cleveland acquired Lee a year before he debuted for Bortolo Colon.  Colon was acquired in the international draft.  So, the way that went was they drafted Colon and eventually traded him for Cliff Lee who they eventually traded for Carlos Corrasco who they eventually traded along with Francisco Lindor for Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez.  The two of them produced 10 WAR last year. 

Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw were ML ready when Cleveland acquired them by trading Sin Soo Choo and Tony Sipp.

Konnoe Pilkington was also acquired as a prospect.

I keep hearing people calling for them to do what they did in Cleveland.  However, much of Cleveland's most important pitching pipeline as well as their current position players were acquired by trading established players for prospects.  Basically, they did several Jose Berrios type trades.  There was a great deal of angst here when they did that trade.  Some people are still complaining and saying they were not serious about building a contender when in fact similar trades had been a huge part of Cleveland’s success over the past couple of decades.  They would have been a lot closer to the Royals over the past 20 years if not for trading established players for prospects.

 

[Karbo]

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

These guys have undeniable upside! I like the fact that we have $ to sign a Vet starter in FA. I think Cueto to start the year as insurance and letting these 2 young guys develop a bit more makes sense. Also, a Vet signing would have enough cache’ to move Maeda to the Pen. I think that’s his best value in ‘23 off surgery.

If Ober slips up or anyone is hurt out of other 4 guys, then you bring Varland or SWR. They contribute in ‘23 but are brought in slowly & as needed.

The only way Maeda moves to the pen is if he isn't healthy enough to start, due to the agreement he has with the Twins.

[Karbo]

I see neither one of the two were "innings eaters". IMO the Twins need at least 1 or 2 starters that can be counted on for 6-7 innings an outing.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Sonny Gray is a nice piece of the rotation.  But the Twins gave up a big pitching prospect on Chase Petty.  Petty is 19 years old and already pitched High A ball last year.  I’m disappointed in the current numbers of quality pitching prospects in the pipeline. 

I have posted before that the Twins will regret trading Petty. I still believe this to be true.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Nice article Lou!  You've summarized the current state of the Twins pipeline succinctly : and then there were two.  In the 7 years of the Falvey reign, his pipeline has turned into a trickle.  Other than the 2 mentioned, there is no one else in the org. who looks primed to step up and fill a starting position in '23 or '24.  And while SWR and Varland are good prospects, they have not yet been rated "elite" by any of the scouting services.  When you add the fact that not one drafted pitcher by Falvey has developed into a late-inning stopper, this whole pitching development program looks more and more like System Failure 2.0.

The one bright side to these 7 years has been their ability to fill some of the holes by trade.  Starting with trades/FA pickups like Odorrizi, Pineda, Maeda, Ryan, Gray, and Duran, the FO has shown the ability to unearth some pretty good talent.  The problem is there is no clear ace on the current roster, nor do Varland/SWR look the part.  After having punted again in the FA sweepstakes, the regime is now counting on improvement by trade or bottom feeding in the FA market.  The problem is the Twins have 3 of their starters coming off the books next year, leaving the cupboard bare(unless they are willing to sign Gray and Mahle to bigger, long term contracts).   What are the chances of that with this risk-averse FO?

So what sort of a trade might provide the long-sought "ace" who could be expected to be a stopper?  On Zone Coverage, you introduced 3 trade targets who, more than the Lopez's of the world, have more top-side potentiaL: Gausman(TB), May(LAD), or Montas(NYY).  Are any of these 3 really available and can we put together a package that might nab one of them without sacrificing top prospects like Lee, Lewis, SWR and/or Varland?  Would you put Ober in a package or is his value to the Twins not worth the risk.?  Your ideas are intriguing but are they at all realistic?  Looking forward to hearing your ought processes.

 

Falvine drafted at least one  H.S. pitcher with huge upside to become an ace, but then traded him to the Reds.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I see neither one of the two were "innings eaters". IMO the Twins need at least 1 or 2 starters that can be counted on for 6-7 innings an outing.

The Twins may already have this "inning eater", but we don't know because Rocco, like many ML managers,  keeps limiting starters' innings.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

18 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm quibbling only on a side comment, but for me the Berrios trade was all about SWR, and Martin was the necessary sweetener.  Pitching is the coin of the realm in MLB and if you continually trade your pitching talent for hitters you'll always be standing at the train station wondering how you missed the express yet again.  I'd have preferred two pitching prospects in return for 1.5 years of Berrios control but evidently Toronto stood firm.  If SWR flops, which is the risk for any prospect, I don't care about Martin unless he turns into the next Jose Altuve or similar.

The "new" FO has been in charge since the 2016-17 off-season.  So this is now their seventh go-round.  FA signings are always needed, but it's time for some results on young controllable difference-makers to be the basis of sustainable success.  The two pitchers you named are as good as any if that success is to occur.

"Pitching is the coin of the realm"  Outstanding writing Ash.  You also added the "standing at the station" analogy, which unfortunately accurately describes the Twins current situation. Well done.

[Otaknam]

Since Rocco seems committed to using only his computer algorithm instead of his instincts and intuition, starters will only be occasionally allowed to pitch past five innings, and under very limited circumstances. So building a bull pen that can effectively handle four innings game after game is essential. Unless they have a lock down BP it is a fool’s errand to handle SP like that. No wonder high level free agent starting pitchers won’t come here. What competitive starter wants to go five innings and 160 innings a year under this manager? Only the injury prone.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I don't know - but maybe it would be possible.  Not sure why you are asking

Having watched Petty pitch in spring training, I was blown away and I would trade SWR or  Connor P. for Petty.  But what do I know...I can't even spell their names.