Will the Real Trevor Larnach Please Stand Up

[Ted Schwerzler]

Coming into the 2023 Minnesota Twins season it couldn’t be more apparent that the success of this team will largely rely on the development and production generated from internal talents. As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have waited out free agency, only small tweaks have been made to the expected lineup. One of the biggest boosts could be the long-awaited emergence of Trevor Larnach.

 

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Seeing plenty of other talents fly off the market, Minnesota opted to bet on the bounceback from outfielder Joey Gallo. His addition likely cements the future for Max Kepler, and removes him from the organization. But that would place plenty of focus on youngsters Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach.

For much of their major league careers thus far, neither Kirilloff or Larnach have been healthy. They have each flashed an ability to contribute, but the next key development is a consistency to remain on the field. For Larnach, the starting left field role could be his, and the bat may very well carry him to levels we haven’t seen from a corner outfielder in Twins Territory in some time.

Having played just 130 games over the past two seasons, Larnach has posted a career 94 OPS+. However, during a 20-game stretch from late April through the end of May, Larnach caught fire. His .333/.419/.619 slash line was a glimpse into the expected future of a player that the front office selected based on the prowess of his bat. Coming out of Oregeon State, Falvey noted that Larnach's exit velocity was drool-worthy and he didn’t possess a substantial swing and miss downside to his game.

Fast forward to June and Larnach had dealt with a core muscle injury that had sapped his production. He was eventually put on the injured list by the end of the month, and then ultimately underwent surgery. It was expected he would miss only six weeks, but that timeline continued to be extended and then eventually wound up keeping him out of action the rest of the way.

Minnesota is hoping this is the season that Larnach can put together both his ability and availability. Last year his 1.1 fWAR across just 51 games was relatively impressive. He shut down the running game with a strong throwing arm from left field, and he looked like an above-average defender posting six defensive runs saved in limited action.

Steamer projections don’t view Larnach entirely favorably for 2023, projecting a dip in his slugging percentage. Then again, the system only has him playing 63 games during the upcoming year, and that’s not something anyone involved would sign up for. ZiPS has Larnach’s slash line projected at .234/.315/.374 with a 93 OPS+ and only 10 home runs. In any world where he’s actually healthy, it would seem logical that he’d blow by that level of production.

For a guy who has always had a strong approach at the dish, and shown a good ability to be selective, it’s exciting to dream of what him putting it together could look like. Outside of the Bomba Squad outlier, Twins fans have wished Kepler would be substantially better offensively than we’ve seen. Larnach could be that type of player, and for a guy who showed such a high level of ability in college, betting against him doesn’t seem fruitful.

We saw everything that could go wrong in 2022 with regards to injury. A clean bill of health may be the best thing afforded to the Twins in 2023, and giving that to a talent ready to break out like Larnach would be a sight to behold.

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[roger]

I understand that his defense has been a question for some.  Haven't seen enough to know whether his routes are average, or not.  I do know that he has a very good arm, which should make him at least average in left field.

If healthy, believe in this kid.  Hopefully, those concerns are behind him.

[tony&rodney]

Larnach, like Kirilloff, Gordon, and others, needs at bats. Trevor has some fairly decent all around skills. The problem will be if he can get 20 plate appearances per week. The Twins added Joey Gallo to an already crowded corner outfield, which means that consistent opportunities will be tough to come by unless there is a return of last seasons thick roll of injuries. 

Personally, I believe the Twins should trade a couple or three players and stand with who they roster. If Trevor Larnach is on the roster in April, he should get 20 plus plate appearances a week. Baseball is a tough game and players produce far better when the management shows a belief in their skills.

[jmlease1]

He just needs health. He was starting to figure it out at the plate last year before the injury (it would have been interesting to see how pitchers would have adjusted to him and if he could have made a counter, but instead he got hurt).

I think he's got a lot of bat talent and could be a significant offensive contributor, hitting for a solid average with a good on-base and significant power, as a well-rounded hitter. He's not an all or nothing guy, but can really scald the ball. I think he can be a middle of the order hitter.

defensively, he'll never be more than average, I suspect, so he'll need to hit his way in there. Maybe the new trainer can keep in on the field this year?

[dxpavelka]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Larnach, like Kirilloff, Gordon, and others, needs at bats. Trevor has some fairly decent all around skills. The problem will be if he can get 20 plate appearances per week. The Twins added Joey Gallo to an already crowded corner outfield, which means that consistent opportunities will be tough to come by unless there is a return of last seasons thick roll of injuries. 

Personally, I believe the Twins should trade a couple or three players and stand with who they roster. If Trevor Larnach is on the roster in April, he should get 20 plus plate appearances a week. Baseball is a tough game and players produce far better when the management shows a belief in their skills.

The plate appearances are contingent on him staying healthy.

[Trov]

He needs to stay healthy, and make adjustments when pitcher adjust to him.  He has shown in stints could be a top hitter, but then regresses quickly.  This past year we can assume it was mostly injury.  If you have a core muscle issue, you have no power.  So as long he can stay on the field it looked like he could be decent. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I really like him and feel that if he gets at-bats and outfield work he will be a good OF.  I especially like his ability to hit doubles as that seemed to be happening for him before he got injured.

Don't they usually say that a player needs about 1K at-bats to see what they really are.  He just needs more time.

[mikelink45]

He is one of those players we all hope for but become frustrated with the wait. He and Buxton and Kiriloff are all just hope and tease. Just like Mahle and Maeda and Ober.  We wish and wait.  Thank goodness we have skinny little Gordon to stay healthy and flexible.  

[TwinsDr2021]

Please refresh my memory again, are we talking about the stretch in late April though May where he faced Detroit 8 times, Tampa 3 times, Baltimore 4 times, Oakland once, and KC 5 times?

In June he faced Det(2)Tor(3), NYY(3), TBR(3), Sea(2), Ar(3)i, Cle(3) and hit 2 homers, 1 double and went 8 for 63.

Now sure it could have been the injury holding him back (if so another wonderful job by the Twins FO and Manager) or it could have been a combo of that and facing good teams instead of the terrible teams he faced prior?

I like Laranch and think he could be a solid starting major league outfielder, but I don't see a future all star, he will be 26 when the season starts so IMO this is a make or break year for him and the Twins, if he isn't good or hurt again the Twins need to quite having him hold down a 40 man spot, and if he is good and healthy that is awesome and lots of things to do with him, keep him or trade him since he isn't a free agent until 2028.

[mnfireman]

Larnach was slashing .313/.365/.448, .813 OPS, when initially placed on the IL on May 8 with a groin strain. He returned May 22 and was slashing .299/.375/.515, .890 OPS through the end of May. He reported pain in his core area in late June (after trying to play through it, unreported to the medical staff, his bad) after slashing a miserable .127/.191/.238, .429 OPS. Clearly the injury affected him and his performance suffered. The team wanted him to rest and/or have an injection, but he chose to see a specialist and surgery was recommended. He then hurt his wrist while on rehab in St. Paul, thus ending his season. 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

 

defensively, he'll never be more than average, I suspect, so he'll need to hit his way in there. Maybe the new trainer can keep in on the field this year?

I disagree. During the time before he went down with injury, Larnach showed all the skills needed to be an above-average corner outfielder. Because he doesn’t have good speed, he’ll likely not be elite, but he can be far better than average. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Don't they usually say that a player needs about 1K at-bats to see what they really are.  He just needs more time.

For Twins fans I think that guidance came from Tom Kelly (and others before him, no doubt) and he said it in the context of a batter who started his career hot.  I don't think it's meant to say give everybody 1K at-bats just in case they might become good.

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

He is one of those players we all hope for but become frustrated with the wait. He and Buxton and Kiriloff are all just hope and tease. Just like Mahle and Maeda and Over.  We wish and wait.  Thank goodness we have skinny little Gordon to stay healthy and flexible.  

I like Gordon over both Larnach and Kiriloff if I had to chose. He can run, he stays healthy and the guy has some fire to him. IMO he sees alot more at bats than those other 2 next year. 

Of course, like has been said, both of those 2 probably have more potential to be better hitters. I just don't trust that they will stay healthy. It would be huge for the Twins if they can both toughen up a little and play ball.

[SanoMustGo]

When is he going to play, and what position? We signed Gallo(LOL) thus taking at bats away from guys like Larnach.  Just not sure what this organization is attempting to accomplish.

[Reptevia]

“Will the Real Trevor Larnach Please Stand Up”. Not without help. 

[h2oface]

“Waiting For Potential”, a new exciting baseball play by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, performed in massive stadiums, opening in Kansas City, Missouri, on March 30, and stopping in at least 29 other major cities, including 81 shows at St Paul, Minnesota’s Target Field. Don’t miss it!

[DocBauer]

A few things come to mind in regard to Larnach:

1] His pair of injuries are obviously very frustrating, and have robbed him of development time at the ML level, and the Twins lineup for his potential production. But neither injury was related to the other, so nothing chronic appears to be taking place here. 

2] Coming out of college, if you read a dozen scouting reports...which I have...you would see a split of him being lumbering OF to an OF with at least average speed and athleticism, if not a good mover for being a pretty big guy. The majority or reports had him at least average. In relatively SSS, he's looked OK to me moving in the OF. And the arm is GREAT! He needs to continue to put in the work to track and take good routes, but I see a solid defensive OF, with the aforementioned great arm. IMO, if things work out well, I think he's probably destined for RF eventually with Martin in LF. (Not dismissing the potential of Wallner, but focusing on Larnach).

3] I love his power. When your, potentially, biggest question is finding a way to take all the power you show hitting the other way to having more pull power, you should feel pretty good about potential. He seems to have a solid eye, solid BA potential, and a decent OB as he doesn't appear to have outrageous K numbers. I'm not saying he's a finished product yet, but examining his bat in college and milb and his early returns at the ML level, he looks like he can be a pretty solid hitter.

Since he was mentioned, I'm not dismissing Kirilloff in the lineup. There is no reason he can't continue to play some corner OF, I just feel he has the potential to be a very good 1B and will settle in their on a regular basis. Of course, unfortunately, his injury issue has been chronic. If his latest procedure actual works...knock on wood...he can be a difference maker in the lineup, even if he needs a little time to get comfortable. I just think he'll fit better at 1B on a more regular basis.

[Otaknam]

I thought Larnach lost significant weight coming into last year, which seemed to help him defensively. With good health and his power potential he could be a 30 home run guy and RBI machine. L and K Boys 2022 (Larnach and Kiriloff)! Let’s find out what the young guys can do this year.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

He is one of those players we all hope for but become frustrated with the wait. He and Buxton and Kiriloff are all just hope and tease. Just like Mahle and Maeda and Ober.  We wish and wait.  Thank goodness we have skinny little Gordon to stay healthy and flexible.  

Agreed - Gordon is everyday LF at this point with the ability to play CF & 2B to spell Buxton & Polanco.

Larnach - Kirilof - Garlick - Gallo need to split up their playing time in LF when Gordon is playing elsewhere, RF, DH, some 1B. None of them starts in front of Gordon nor Arraez.

Time for a number of guys to break out and have availability and start to show productivity!

I still like the consideration of Evan Longoria for RH bat at DH & a 30 game back-up for Miranda. VET at 35 and class guy - connection with Baldelli from Rays as well………any thoughts on him for depth?

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

I still like the consideration of Evan Longoria for RH bat at DH & a 30 game back-up for Miranda. VET at 35 and class guy - connection with Baldelli from Rays as well………any thoughts on him for depth?

Longoria signed with Arizona

[tony&rodney]

Gallo gets a spot. Gordon deserves to play more than any of the other younger guys (Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, Wallner). Kirilloff and Larnach need to play every day in order to develop their expected reasonably high ceilings. Garlick is a reserve, which most can agree on. Celestino has disappointed with his bat but remains the best CF behind Byron. Arraez won the AL batting title last year. Kepler will play if he is on the team. So, it looks like currently there are four of five spots in the lineup securely spoken for: Buxton, Arraez, Gallo, and Kepler. This leaves one spot for Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Celestino, and Martin. Even if the last three are removed, that is too many. Last season saw a mountain of injuries. In the current setup, do we expect to start Larnach, Kepler, Celestino, and Martin in St. Paul? Nick Gordon displayed last season that he was the top outfielder on the team. The Twins put forth a team in 2022 that lacked athleticism and Gordon was an exception. It would be a real step backwards if Gordon was returned to his former role as a roving utility player who had to wait for at bats because of injuries to another player. Thus, the Twins will need to decide what players they see as most beneficial to their franchise moving forward and complete a few trades to reduce the others. Falvey gets to decide who goes.

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Longoria signed with Arizona

Thanks for Longoria info!!…….how does Miranda get any rest at this point? Arraez at 3B….seems a stretch for more than emergency innings. Gordon at SS & Farmer at 3B? Seems like it may need to be addressed. I guess he plays a bunch of innings until we get Lewis back in July?

Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo - Larnach - Buxton - Garlick …………Arraez - Polanco - Farmer - Miranda…….Vazquez - Jeffers…………seems we need that back-up IF, DH until Lewis can go mid-summer. WHO IS IT? Profar?? Farm system guy??

[JD-TWINS]

Can we all agree that Kepler should not be considered a candidate for our ‘23 roster!?!? Seems extremely remote unless we trade Larnach &/or Gordon - can’t imagine either of those happening.

Sure seems to be an absolute that he is traded with 3-4 different guys from ‘22 roster (Gordon - Larnach - Kirilof - Garlick) battling for LF & then the additional signing of Gallo.

IMO Celestino isn’t worth considering a rostered player for Twins either. Not at level we need across the board. Powerless - poor base running - overall defense isn’t special. 70% of balls in play are to straightaway RF to foul line. Doesn’t exude MLB hitter.

These two out of the OF picture with Garlick being a not very likely LF (more of a DH) is the only way Larnach & Gordon get enough at bats!

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The Twins need to decide if they can absorb this glut of outfielders on their 25 man (or is it 26 this year?) roster.  Seems like too many fielders given how they like to keep 13 pitchers and not enough with options or if they have options, should not be in the minors.

Someone or two has to go.  I suspect a trade for pitching is coming and if Larnach will garner more than Kepler then he may be the odd man out.  I personally favor the younger given their controllable years, but with injuriy history and potential trade value I could see the Twins going either way on a trade.

[saviking]

23 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I really like him and feel that if he gets at-bats and outfield work he will be a good OF.  I especially like his ability to hit doubles as that seemed to be happening for him before he got injured.

Don't they usually say that a player needs about 1K at-bats to see what they really are.  He just needs more time.

I agree, we need to give him a chance to prove himself. As for ZiPS, it can only extrapolate the data in to get the data out. When it comes to injury's ZiPS is at a disadvantage. Not only did he not play many games last year a long stream of them was when he was hurt which hurt his numbers. 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agreed - Gordon is everyday LF at this point with the ability to play CF & 2B to spell Buxton & Polanco.

Larnach - Kirilof - Garlick - Gallo need to split up their playing time in LF when Gordon is playing elsewhere, RF, DH, some 1B. None of them starts in front of Gordon nor Arraez.

Time for a number of guys to break out and have availability and start to show productivity!

I still like the consideration of Evan Longoria for RH bat at DH & a 30 game back-up for Miranda. VET at 35 and class guy - connection with Baldelli from Rays as well………any thoughts on him for depth?

Longoria is not in Arizona 

[Steve71]

MLB Trade Rumors reported that Longoria signed 1 year deal with Arizona:

Diamondbacks To Sign Evan Longoria To One-Year Deal - MLB Trade Rumors

So he is off the table.

[MGM4706]

The FACTS are not good for Larnach! The League has figured out he has no clue on how to hit any type of breaking ball. Him and Gallo together would be a disaster!! Plus the fact that he can cover 3 feet to his left and 3 feet to his right and has no idea on how to play a fence means it is time to move on!