Our Rotation (Peak value or less?

[mikelink45]

At this point the FA pitching market has shrunk to Michael Wacha and a bunch of former Twins so barring a trade I want to stick with our current rotation;  

Here are their peak years:

Sonny Grey - 2015 (yes, that is 8 years ago)  14 - 7, 2.73 era, 1.082whip 3.5 WAR

Joe Ryan - 2022 13 - 8, 3.55, 1.102, 2.2 WAR

Kenta Maeda - 2016 16 - 11, 3.58 1.139, 2.8WAR (his whip was amazing in 2020 but that was a short year and things can change fast)

Tyler Mahle - 2021 13 - 6, 3.75  1.233 5.1 WAR

Bailey Ober - 2022   2 - 3, 3.21  1.054, 0.9 WAR

Chris Paddock 2019    9 - 7, 3.33, 0.981 2.9 WAR

 

Here are their worst years:

Sonny Grey - 2016  5 - 11  5.69 era, 1.496 Whip, WAR - 0.3

Joe Ryan (only 2 years)   2 - 1 4.05 (I looked at his minors and college stats and he really has not had a bad year).

Kenta Maeda - 2021   6 - 5, 4.66 1.298 0.3 WAR

Tyler Mahle - 2018   7 - 9. 4.98, 1.589 0.1 WAR

Bailey Ober - 2021  3 - 3 4.19, 1.202 1.9 WAR

Chris Paddock - 2021  7  - 7, 5.07, 1.209  -0.6 WAR

Where do you expect this rotation to be in 2023?  High/low or in between?

Who rises?  Who falls?

And who is next in line?

 

[strumdatjag]

The Twins certainly have quantity, since you could also add to the mix:  Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Varland, and a few still hanging on (Sands, Smeltzer …).   Unless the Twins can make a decent trade, I agree that they should stick with what they’ve got.  

[CRF]

Yup...unless a nice trade opportunity comes along, they're better off just rolling with what they have now. 

[August J Gloop]

The rotation is solid. Add some higher end options to the pen and pitching should be A-OK. It's not sexy but it will get the job done. 

[Linus]

The strength of the rotation will be solid performances at the bottom of the rotation. Despite what everyone says about having so many to choose from I don’t think they have enough depth. Yes you can list a bunch of names but that doesn’t really mean anything as a good percentage will either get hurt or underperform. I hope SWR and Varland get the first chances when someone goes down. Chances are one will be ok and one will not. Then we are going to Winder and Sands?  Winder hasn’t been healthy and really hasn’t proven to be a MLB caliber pitcher. He might be but might not be. Sands is AAAA: good teams don’t have him in the mix. Then what?  Henriquez or Balasovic?  They were bad at AAA last year so I don’t see that working. By the All Star break we will be wondering why we didn’t add another starter. I guess this points out the need for a trade. 

[gman]

I don't want anyone to be hurt, but we need to get 2 of the guys likely to start at St Paul into the mix. I'm leaning towards SWR and Varland. Somehow I hope they each get more than 10 starts with the Twins this year.

[4twinsJA]

Twins starting pitching is in better condition that going into the season this year. This year opening rotation was Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, and Archer, with Paddock, Smeltzer, Winder, Balazovic, Dobnak as depth. Opening rotation had Gray, 2 unproven pitchers, and 2 pitchers off scrap heap. Next year possibly, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober with Winder, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Paddock as depth maybe even Sands, Henriquez, Headrick. Still some questions marks, but hard to say not improved from this year.

[IA Bean Counter]

My best guess

Sonny Gray was 2.4 WAR last year even with injury stints.   Proj: 2.5 WAR

Joe Ryan    I thought he performed worse in 2nd half but all the metrics pretty close.  Just a bad august for ERA.   Proj: 2.2 WAR

Kenta Maeda -  I would say is a reliever for as much of the year as start   Proj:    1.1 WAR

Tyler Mahle -  He becomes a massive trade chip most likely,   I think the Twins unlock him next year  Proj:  6+ 

Ober  ???  How much can he pitch

Paddack -  1/2 year  limited innings count  - Proj: .5 WAR 

Varland   Proj: 1.5 

Winder   ????    Proj: .5

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Because of a full spring training. IMO Mahle, Gray & Ryan will have a better year than last. Ober is a wash, Maeda is coming back from a prolonged injury, Winder, Varland & SWR are rookies so can't expect a lot from them. So the last 5, I expect to do well if taken slowly. Paddack is a non factor, he'll spend most of his time in the minors, trying to build up his stamina and find his control.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Linus said:

The strength of the rotation will be solid performances at the bottom of the rotation. Despite what everyone says about having so many to choose from I don’t think they have enough depth. Yes you can list a bunch of names but that doesn’t really mean anything as a good percentage will either get hurt or underperform. I hope SWR and Varland get the first chances when someone goes down. Chances are one will be ok and one will not. Then we are going to Winder and Sands?  Winder hasn’t been healthy and really hasn’t proven to be a MLB caliber pitcher. He might be but might not be. Sands is AAAA: good teams don’t have him in the mix. Then what?  Henriquez or Balasovic?  They were bad at AAA last year so I don’t see that working. By the All Star break we will be wondering why we didn’t add another starter. I guess this points out the need for a trade. 

Statements like the one I bolded always fascinate me. I assume you're counting (in some order) Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober as the starting rotation going into the year. You then list SWR and Varland. Then Winder and Sands. So you have Sands as the 9th guy in the Twins starting pitcher pecking order. What sort of pitchers do you think "good teams" have as their 9th guy? I'm not trying to be sarcastic or anything. I truly want to know what sort of guys you picture the good teams having as their 9th best starting pitcher option entering a year.

For the record, I agree with the general premise that the names beyond SWR and Varland aren't overly inspiring after Winder struggled to stay healthy (I think he's super talented, and could be a #2 if he'd stay healthy) and Balazovic completely fell apart. I don't even think they picture Henriquez or Sands as long-term starters. But I'm curious what you picture quality depth looking like.

(Side note: I'd actually argue Paddack should be ahead of Sands in the pecking order as I expect him back before the trade deadline, and if they're relying on their 9th best starter to be making consistent starts by the end of July they're doomed anyways.)

[Vanimal46]

Around this time last year fans named Balazovic 6th in the list of 10 names highlighting our depth. Varland wasn’t named at all. How times have changed. 

I think Balazovic bounces back in a big way in 2023. He was never going to have respectable stats after his disastrous start of 2022. In September he looked like he found his stride again with a 3.43 ERA and 13 K/9 in 5 heavily monitored starts. 

Starting pitching will not be the reason the Twins are a below .500 team next season. 

[Linus]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Statements like the one I bolded always fascinate me. I assume you're counting (in some order) Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober as the starting rotation going into the year. You then list SWR and Varland. Then Winder and Sands. So you have Sands as the 9th guy in the Twins starting pitcher pecking order. What sort of pitchers do you think "good teams" have as their 9th guy? I'm not trying to be sarcastic or anything. I truly want to know what sort of guys you picture the good teams having as their 9th best starting pitcher option entering a year.

For the record, I agree with the general premise that the names beyond SWR and Varland aren't overly inspiring after Winder struggled to stay healthy (I think he's super talented, and could be a #2 if he'd stay healthy) and Balazovic completely fell apart. I don't even think they picture Henriquez or Sands as long-term starters. But I'm curious what you picture quality depth looking like.

(Side note: I'd actually argue Paddack should be ahead of Sands in the pecking order as I expect him back before the trade deadline, and if they're relying on their 9th best starter to be making consistent starts by the end of July they're doomed anyways.)

If you re-read the post you will notice that in my opinion the first two options are 50/50. We disagree about Winder and I don’t care about anything after that. 

[tony&rodney]

I would like to see the Twins trade for someone who could potentially add considerable upside to the rotation. So I target Miami and Edward Cabrera and/or Jesus Luzardo. Maybe the Marlins would even take Emilio Pagan as a throw in, making any JL+ for EP +++  a trade worth discussion.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

If you re-read the post you will notice that in my opinion the first two options are 50/50. We disagree about Winder and I don’t care about anything after that. 

That's not at all what I asked. I asked you what you think the 9th best starting pitcher option on "good teams" looks like. Sands was the one you singled out as someone "good teams don't have in the mix" because he's a "AAAA" player. So I'm asking you what you think good teams have in that spot instead.

If you want to expand it to the other guys that I simply listed to setup the question based on how you listed them, then do you think the good teams are sitting on established vets at the 6 and 7 spots instead of 2 prospects who've already gotten their feet wet and held their own? What do you think the 8 and 9 spots look like on the "good teams?" Are they better than AAAA players? Do you expect teams to be 4 deep on top prospects ready to break in?

I'm not trying to be confrontational at all. These forums are for discussion. I'm trying to have a discussion.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That's not at all what I asked. I asked you what you think the 9th best starting pitcher option on "good teams" looks like. Sands was the one you singled out as someone "good teams don't have in the mix" because he's a "AAAA" player. So I'm asking you what you think good teams have in that spot instead.

If you want to expand it to the other guys that I simply listed to setup the question based on how you listed them, then do you think the good teams are sitting on established vets at the 6 and 7 spots instead of 2 prospects who've already gotten their feet wet and held their own? What do you think the 8 and 9 spots look like on the "good teams?" Are they better than AAAA players? Do you expect teams to be 4 deep on top prospects ready to break in?

I'm not trying to be confrontational at all. These forums are for discussion. I'm trying to have a discussion.

I only mentioned Sands because some think he is viable depth. I don’t. The main point I made is that in my opinion they don’t have much starter depth. I’m not interested in responding to your nitpicks. 

[Vanimal46]

Sands will be Griffin Jax 2.0 in the bullpen. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Linus said:

I only mentioned Sands because some think he is viable depth. I don’t. The main point I made is that in my opinion they don’t have much starter depth. I’m not interested in responding to your nitpicks. 

Oh my goodness. It's not nitpicks, I'm asking you what you think good depth looks like. How do we get to the point where they have good depth? Do you want more FAs signed? Do you think they need to improve the development program because the quality of their prospects isn't good enough? 

The Dodgers have 9 starters on their 40-man roster right now. 1 of them is Walker Buehler who had TJ for 2nd time last August so he's out for the year. Their other 8 are Kershaw, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Syndergaard, Pepiot, Grove and Jackson. Grove is a 26 year old with 29.1 ML innings, a 4.60 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP. Jackson is a 26 year old with 21.1 ML innings (all out of the pen despite being a starter in the minors), a 2.11 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. Pepiot is a 25 year old with 36.1 ML innings, a 3.47 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP. Is that 6-8 better than the Twins? Why or why not? 

[tony&rodney]

The post believes the Twins have decent starting pitching and many folks are of likewise belief as they compare the staff of 2022 to what it looks like 2023 will roster for the Twins. I too hope the Twins have strong pitching in 2023. 

However, it is just my hope. Cleveland can roll out Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill followed by Plesac and Civale before any consideration of ready arms such as Morris, Curry, and Pilkington before looking at their prospects such as Bibee, Allen, Williams, or Espino. I also would not be surprised to see the Guardians move Sam Hentges into the rotation after serving his apprenticeship in the bullpen. Chicago is much weaker than Cleveland, but roll out Cease, Kopech, Giolito, and Lynn ahead of Clevinger and whatever else they manage to roster. The Twins do not have the pitching of either the Guardians or the White Sox right now, so I would still like to see a trade or two to add pitching and i want the players traded away to be either corner infielders or corner outfielders on the 40 person roster.  A few additions would bolster my hopes.