Eovaldi to the Rangers

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

14 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

One of the last players out there in FA that could have moved the needle.

Also, we have 3 SP hitting FA after this year.... so  the FO seems to be awfully confident in their pitching pipeline. 

Let's hope they're right, because if not, things are going to get ugly and fast. 

They may not be necessarily confident in the pitching pipeline if they extend one or two of those hitting FA after this year.  I suspect that the FO would be more comfortable in extending a known commodity than bringing in Eovaldi who is somewhat of an unknown commodity.

[Linus]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I understand what you're saying. I'm saying it doesn't make sense. If you don't like their MO (bringing in injured pitchers), you shouldn't be upset that they didn't bring in Eovaldi. You can't have it both ways. You can't be mad that they've acquired pitchers with injury histories and then complain that they're dumb for not bringing in a pitcher with an injury history.

You called their decision making "obstinate." Again, you can't have it both ways. Either they're obstinate and don't change their MO (bringing in injured pitchers) or they weren't obstinate here and learned from previous mistakes and avoided the injury prone guy. They can't be both obstinate and change their ways.

Ok. We are talking past each other. I wasn’t complaining about them bringing in pitchers with injury histories. What I was saying is that Eovaldi injury history shouldn’t be a reason not to sign him because they have done it before. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

Ok. We are talking past each other. I wasn’t complaining about them bringing in pitchers with injury histories. What I was saying is that Eovaldi injury history shouldn’t be a reason not to sign him because they have done it before. 

Ah, got ya. Well then I simply am glad they learned from previous mistakes and are no longer bringing in pitchers that can't start more than 20 games. They've already got 4 guys in the rotation that we aren't sure can make more than 20 starts, and I don't think bringing in another one really solves any problems. He's a good pitcher, but not significantly better than anything already in the rotation so I don't see him as any sort of real upgrade over the #2-3 type, injury prone pitchers they already have.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Eh,  I really don't see Eovaldi as a needle mover.  he strung together 3 good seasons with 1 great season last year.  If you remove the 2021 season and the 2019 year best and worst years he is essentially a 1.2 WAR player.  Plus you are giving up a draft pick as well.   We need to rebuild our farm depth after last year trading a lot away.   We have enough pitchers on the staff that can be 1 WAR players while not paying them 17 mil a year.  

This! He’s a 3.9 to 4 ERA pitcher, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are all better, Maeda when healthy is better. So 17 mil a year to compete with Ober, Paddack, and Maeda for 4th/5th starter and might end up 6th. He had all the injury concerns of the rest of the rotation and none of the upside as ground ball pitchers w/ Farmer at SS makes me cringe

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

Eovaldi had one good year 2 years ago. Earlier in the thread it was about him being best pitcher. Now it is beat out number 5. Is Eovaldi better than developing one of Winder, SWR, Varland or any other prospect? Based on last year, what did he do to be even worth 16 million?  Regression to his mean says a better 2022 but fewer games.

Why would a pitcher come here? Last established pitcher to come here and get better was ?

I'm not sure what any of that has to do with them now not spending, which is what we were talking about. Who are they going to spend money on now?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what any of that has to do with them now not spending, which is what we were talking about. Who are they going to spend money on now?

No one, clearly. I’m all for spending money, but if it doesn’t actually improve the team, I don’t care.

they dithered on Correa while all the players they should have signed went elsewhere. It’s been too late since November

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

No one, clearly. I’m all for spending money, but if it doesn’t actually improve the team, I don’t care.

they dithered on Correa while all the players they should have signed went elsewhere. It’s been too late since November

Agreed

[Vanimal46]

Falvey and Levine won’t sign free agent pitchers to big time contracts. There’s 7 years of history proving this. Getting upset about them not signing free agent pitching is futile. 

[D.C Twins]

44 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

They may not be necessarily confident in the pitching pipeline if they extend one or two of those hitting FA after this year.  I suspect that the FO would be more comfortable in extending a known commodity than bringing in Eovaldi who is somewhat of an unknown commodity.

Possible, but unlikely in the last year before FA.

If the pending FA starts the year playing well or even average, they bet on themselves and wait a short half a year to have numerous bidders to drive up the price. 

If the pending FA starts the year playing poorly, the Twins are not excited to extend.

Only way to extend during the last year for someone that is worth extending is a massive overpay that makes the player/agent think "damn, we won't even be able to get THIS type of money with 5 teams bidding"

[D.C Twins]

36 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

This! He’s a 3.9 to 4 ERA pitcher, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are all better, Maeda when healthy is better. So 17 mil a year to compete with Ober, Paddack, and Maeda for 4th/5th starter and might end up 6th. He had all the injury concerns of the rest of the rotation and none of the upside as ground ball pitchers w/ Farmer at SS makes me cringe

Mahle's health.... question mark... and he's a FA next year

Maeda's health..... question mark... and he's a FA next year

Paddack health... HUGE question mark

Gray... free agent next year that appears unhappy with the way he is used

Hope is not a plan.

Things could easily go terribly sideways this year from a pitching standpoint and looking at 2024..... yep they are 100% banking on their pitching pipeline because we do KNOW that they will not pony up to get 3 above average or elite pitchers in FA.  It will be flyers on whatever is left over as always.

So again, they are all in on their pitching pipeline.... I hope they are right.

But, again, hope should not be a plan

[Richie the Rally Goat]

28 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Mahle's health.... question mark... and he's a FA next year

Maeda's health..... question mark... and he's a FA next year

Paddack health... HUGE question mark

Gray... free agent next year that appears unhappy with the way he is used

Hope is not a plan.

Things could easily go terribly sideways this year from a pitching standpoint and looking at 2024..... yep they are 100% banking on their pitching pipeline because we do KNOW that they will not pony up to get 3 above average or elite pitchers in FA.  It will be flyers on whatever is left over as always.

So again, they are all in on their pitching pipeline.... I hope they are right.

But, again, hope should not be a plan

you’re right, Hope is not a plan.

Eovaldi’s health - question mark, and if you don’t turn your 5th spot over to Ober/SWR/Varland, you don’t test your pipeline enough to know if it’s ready.

You are correct, hope is not a plan. Signing Eovaldi and hoping your untested pipeline comes through, and hoping Eovsldi stays healthy, and hoping he pitches better than he’s pitched in the past is no plan.

they needed to sign a big time free agent to improve the front, but didn’t. Now they need to test the pipeline. Ober is a Ml 3/4 pitcher. Varland and SWR need to be tested.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Falvey and Levine won’t sign free agent pitchers to big time contracts. There’s 7 years of history proving this. Getting upset about them not signing free agent pitching is futile. 

This. 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Falvey and Levine won’t sign free agent pitchers to big time contracts. There’s 7 years of history proving this. Getting upset about them not signing free agent pitching is futile. 

Correct. That’s why this was a good opportunity.  The money he got was nothing in today’s market. 

[D.C Twins]

7 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

you’re right, Hope is not a plan.

Eovaldi’s health - question mark, and if you don’t turn your 5th spot over to Ober/SWR/Varland, you don’t test your pipeline enough to know if it’s ready.

You are correct, hope is not a plan. Signing Eovaldi and hoping your untested pipeline comes through, and hoping Eovsldi stays healthy, and hoping he pitches better than he’s pitched in the past is no plan.

they needed to sign a big time free agent to improve the front, but didn’t. Now they need to test the pipeline. Ober is a Ml 3/4 pitcher. Varland and SWR need to be tested.

They likely going to use 10+ starters this year. There will be plenty of opportunities to test "The Pipeline" and even some pitchers that are currently outside "The Pipeline" 

Our starting pitching is NOT deep at all right now even with "The Pipeline." Next year, the bottom falls out on pitching depth

I totally agree that we needed a top shelf pitcher and Eovaldi is not one of them. But, he certainly could have been useful with a higher ceiling than most options. 

We have the same frustrations, just expressing them differently

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what any of that has to do with them now not spending, which is what we were talking about. Who are they going to spend money on now?

What was being discussed was the signing of Eovaldi. The question asked of me was then who would I spend money on, which really has no bearing on wether or not I think signing Eovaldi was a good thing to do

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

What was being discussed was the signing of Eovaldi. The question asked of me was then who would I spend money on, which really has no bearing on wether or not I think signing Eovaldi was a good thing to do

We clearly didn't understand your either or statement then. What did it mean? Because both of us thought you were saying they could spend elsewhere. Our bad.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. 

This what? ?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’d take it further: not only does this front office not spend money on starting pitching, but they don’t really believe in the value of starting pitching in the first place.

In 2023 they will be leaning even more heavily on the bullpen—which should actually be much better next year than it was last year. So worry not. But the Twins are staring from a precarious spot and if things go wrong, the starting pitching has the ‘potential’ to be among the worst in the league. Not saying it will or that I want it to. Eovaldi would have been a nice little signing. The time to make hay in free agency was previous offseasons. 

According to a summary on MLBTR, among the best starting pitching free agents still available at this point are Bundy and Archer. There was a Michael Pineda reunion after 2019 — there may be a Dylan Bundy reunion in our near future.

For 2023, the Twins will be hoping that several of their young guys take huge steps forward, and that their older guys stay healthy. I’d be curious to know how often their simulations spit out that outcome. 

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

We clearly didn't understand your either or statement then. What did it mean? Because both of us thought you were saying they could spend elsewhere. Our bad.

The decision to sign Eovaldi or not should rest solely on how he helps the team.  The money is not spend it on Eovaldi or not at all. One could argue that the average of Eovoldi’s career, trading for a high paid reliever is a better outcome   Starting Ober is a better option 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

They likely going to use 10+ starters this year. There will be plenty of opportunities to test "The Pipeline" and even some pitchers that are currently outside "The Pipeline" 

Our starting pitching is NOT deep at all right now even with "The Pipeline." Next year, the bottom falls out on pitching depth

I totally agree that we needed a top shelf pitcher and Eovaldi is not one of them. But, he certainly could have been useful with a higher ceiling than most options. 

We have the same frustrations, just expressing them differently

My thoughts on what the Twins are doing.

Starting the season with Mahle, Gray, Ryan and Ober, like last year I think they start the season with 6 starters, those final two will be Maeda and Varland, the back up plan is to drop back to a 5 man rotation or adding one or more of WInder, SWR, Henriquez, Headrick to the rotation. If more than one prospect picks it up or Paddack is looking healthy, they can trade Mahle or Gray or both at the deadline, restocking prospects.

Going into 2024 the Twins need 3 starters from the "pipeline", assuming Ryan, Ober, and Varland or SWR.  In addition to those 3 Paddack will be the 4th starter and the 5th/6th starters will be another prospect.  Now if prospects don't pan out we are looking at Bundy/Happ type signing.

If this is the Twins plan they can always add a top end/ace type starter at the deadline or FA if you choose because they don't have any real money tied up in starting pitching and can trade prospects to get other needs if there is too many quality starters (Ha, ha like that has ever happened). Also by doing this plan they get to keep their pitching philosophy of facing 22/24 batters, lower innings (5/6/7) and low pitch count. You start paying real money to a starter and limiting them I am sure ownership and the player aren't going to be happy. Plus for example if they keep Joe Ryan to 180 innings or less, a ERA around 3.5, imagine other teams will be drooling over him come 2026 thinking they could get so much more out of him.

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

The decision to sign Eovaldi or not should rest solely on how he helps the team.  The money is not spend it on Eovaldi or not at all. One could argue that the average of Eovoldi’s career, trading for a high paid reliever is a better outcome   Starting Ober is a better option 

Ok, thanks. Who of those that are left would you sign at this point?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

They likely going to use 10+ starters this year. There will be plenty of opportunities to test "The Pipeline" and even some pitchers that are currently outside "The Pipeline" 

Our starting pitching is NOT deep at all right now even with "The Pipeline." Next year, the bottom falls out on pitching depth

I totally agree that we needed a top shelf pitcher and Eovaldi is not one of them. But, he certainly could have been useful with a higher ceiling than most options. 

We have the same frustrations, just expressing them differently

100% agreed they'll use 10+ starting pitchers in 2023. #8,9,10,11 should have a couple starts each. #6 and 7 should get 8-10 starts each.

We see things differently too, which makes this a fun discussion. I see Mahle as durable prior to last year, Gray and Ryan getting a bit more run than last year with 2022 being healthier (and more innings, than years prior). Those 3 are among the best 2,3,4 starts in MLB (unfortunately they're 123, alas) and if they can get/remain healthy there's a good likelihood of pitching 550 to 570 innings. Still need to pitch 1500 innings, Maeda, Ober might only be 250 of those innings, Varland (6) pitched really well last year, and SWR (7) and Winder (8) both look ready. There's depth and innings there, that I'm not worried about 2024 if they can extend Mahle or Gray. I agree that Gray might not want to sign an extension, he has expressed his frustration with his handling, but he also had one of his best years in a while last year and maybe stepping back away from the competitive grind might see things in as new light. 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ok, thanks. Who of those that are left would you sign at this point?

Kneibel, Chafin, Fulmer, Wacha if he would work out of the pen. See what they can shake out in a trade from an over the cap team looking to get under