3 Twins Players Who Need to Step Up in 2023

[Cody Christie]

As the calendar turns to a new year, it is often a time for players and fans to reflect on the future. Here are three players the Twins need to step up in 2023 for the team to return to contention.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to 2023, improved health has to be the Twins’ most important resolution. Minnesota sat atop the AL Central for most of 2022, but the club couldn’t overcome one of baseball’s most injured rosters. Luckily, a new year brings hope for the club’s future, and these three players need to prove they can fit into new roles for the club. 

Jose Miranda, 3B
Minnesota showed plenty of faith in Miranda by trading away Gio Urshela earlier this offseason. Urshela was coming off a season where he posted a 121 OPS+ in 144 games, so Miranda will be stepping into some big shoes to fill. However, it was clear from the onset of the offseason that the Twins wanted Miranda to take over an everyday role at third base. He was the organization’s 2021 Minor League Player of the Year after destroying the upper minors with a .937 OPS, 32 doubles, and 30 home runs. Now the Twins hope he can produce at a similar level in the big leagues. 

Projection systems point to Miranda being an above-average offensive third baseman. Baseball-Reference projects Miranda to post a .748 OPS with 22 doubles and 13 home runs in just over 400 at-bats. FanGraphs' ZiPS points to Miranda having a better season with 31 doubles, 19 home runs, and a .778 OPS. It is important to note that ZiPS projects Miranda to get over 140 more at-bats than Baseball Reference. Minnesota would undoubtedly be happy if Miranda could reach his 119 OPS+ projected by ZiPS.   

Jorge Lopez, RHP
Reliever’s on-field results can be fickle, especially with the small sample sizes pitched by bullpen arms in any given season. Lopez was terrific during the first half of 2022 as he shifted from starting pitcher to the bullpen. He was selected to his first All-Star Game and posted a 1.68 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 44 games. For Lopez, nearly every statistical area declined after the Twins acquired him, including strike rate, walk rate, exit velocity, etc. Minnesota tried to adjust Lopez, but the results were not positive, as Parker outlined (for Twins Daily Caretakers) last week. 

Few relievers can post the numbers Lopez compiled with Baltimore in 2022’s first half. Baseball-Reference projects Lopez to post a 4.28 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an 8.4 K/9 across 80 innings. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projects have Lopez compiling a 4.41 ERA with an 8.7 K/9 in close to 86 innings. To put that in perspective, ZiPS projects Emilio Pagan to have a better ERA and a higher strikeout rate than Lopez. For Minnesota’s bullpen to be successful, Lopez needs to improve over his second-half numbers and be a late-inning bullpen weapon.  

Ryan Jeffers, C
The Twins signed Christian Vazquez to add to the team’s catching depth, but Jeffers is still part of the team’s long-term plans. Last winter, the club dealt away Mitch Garver, assuming that Jeffers was ready to take on a more significant catching role. Like many Twins last season, injuries limited Jeffers to 67 games with a .648 OPS and a 62-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He doesn’t turn 26 until next June, and he is under team control for four more seasons, so the Twins have hopes he can put it all together. 

ZiPS projects Jeffers to hit .226/.302/.406 (.708) while producing a career-high 1.9 WAR. Those totals are in 355 plate appearances, over 60 more than he has accumulated in any previous season. Baseball Reference projects him to get 347 PA with a .682 OPS and double-digit totals in doubles and home runs. It’s also important to consider that Jeffers was limited to 24 games above High-A before debuting as a 23-year-old. COVID impacted player development, and Jeffers can continue to make adjustments at the big-league level.

Which players do you hope make the most significant improvements in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

If these are your top three that need to step up, we are much better off than anybody thinks.
Miranda - I can agree with
Lopez - probably 10th on the "step up" list
Jeffers - was mitigated by the Vazquez signing, not even on the "step up" list

Mahle, Maeda, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco all deserve a place on this list ahead of the three you mentioned (except possibly Miranda, who would be in the mix somewhere)

[dxpavelka]

Can you REALLY write an article with this title and not include either Larnach or Kirilloff?

[Richard]

All we need from Buxton is 100+ games.  We need Gray, Mahle, and Maeda to all preform like number 2-3 guys.  We also need someone to step up at the corner outfield spots.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Someday in the not too-distant-future games will no longer be played. Stats will be compiled from past seasons, projections will be made, W-2s added and "game" winners will be announced on the Big Screen to a lethargic stadium crowd more concerned with sampling new stadium foods while texting their friends and occasionally watching "players" model new uniforms on the field.  

[I wish the twins were good]

Walter Johnson and Cobb, reanimated from the dead and in 1915 form, this team gets to 82 wins.....maybe.

[roger]

Agree with above comments that I see Jeffers playing 50 games and would not be in my top three.  Getting Lopez back to the pitcher he was in Baltimore would be huge when teamed with Duran at the end of games.  Also can agree with Miranda, who should have a special bat with numbers much better than your projections.

My third would be AK.  Hell, he would be my number one.  If he can put his wrist problems behind him, he can be one of the better hitters in baseball.  Put that bat behind Arraez, Polo and Buxton with Miranda batting fifth and the Twins will score runs, a lot of runs.

[mikelink45]

Step up - Lewis, Larnach, Kiriloff - those are the players we projected three years ago and their continuing absence cannot be tolerated anymore.  Miranda has stepped up and will continue to improve.  Lopez is not someone I would count on - I rate him with Pagan.  And Jeffers does need to step up, but the urgency was reduced by Vasquez. 

Now beyond them I was so disappointed by Balazovic last year - even in the minors he needs to step up.  

[hitterscount]

They need a lot more than three players to step up... if they pick up where they left off last season they pretty much need the entire team to step up. I was also surprised that they were so quick to bring Baldelli back, not many starters were happy with the quick hook that he utilized which most likely led to the BP failures, oh and the willingness to keep watching Pagan blow save after save when they had a legit closer all along.   

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Someday in the not too-distant-future games will no longer be played. Stats will be compiled from past seasons, projections will be made, W-2s added and "game" winners will be announced on the Big Screen to a lethargic stadium crowd more concerned with sampling new stadium foods while texting their friends and occasionally watching "players" model new uniforms on the field.  

Forget the game sims...

Strat-o-Matic.  Cards and dice baby!

[Mark G]

Right now my only comment would be to tell ZiPS to Zip it and take a realistic view apart from the damn computers.  If these 3 up their game, but only these 3, .500 will be a bonanza.  But, then, I am just an extremely humble observer; what do I know?  

[SteveLV]

3?  3!  Only 3 Twins need to step up?  How about more than a dozen!

[rv78]

How in the world did you come up with these 3? Miranda was a rookie and played out of position most of the year while leading the team in RBI's. Why does he need to step up? He performed quite well and I would take that from him again. Lopez is a 1 inning reliever that can be replaced with a strong return from Alcala. No big loss if he doesn't step up. Jeffers could remain in mediocrity for the next 3 seasons if Vazquez does his job.

If you want 3 guys that need to step up maybe it's time for Buxton to step up and play for an entire season. Would it be too much to ask for Kepler to hit something more than his weight? How about Mahle pitching like a #2 guy? These 3 making improvement in where it is needed would benefit the team way more than the 3 you mention.

Then there's always the 3 leaders, Falvey, Levine and Rocco. Maybe when they step up and quit making idiotic decisions the team will improve as well. 

[Linus]

It would be easier to make a list of people that don’t need to step up. 
Duran, Arreaz, and ummmm….hold on, let me think…….

[HerbieFan]

And Larnach....and Kiriloff.....and Gray.....and Mahle.....and Alcala......and Polanco.....and Kepler/Gallo.....and Ober.....and Maeda.....and probably Winder when Ober pulls a hammy.....and probably 3-4 I missed.....

[BuxtonBonanza]

If Rocco/FO continue to manage the pitching staff as they have in the past then the relief corps will have to improve (other than Duran) for the Twins to have a chance. 2022 saw 27 blown saves, 10th out of 15 teams in ERA, 468 walks issued, the list goes on. 

Pagan tops this need-to-step-up list carrying an impressive -0.1 fWAR across 59 innings in 2022 and firmly in the spotlight/ire of the fanbase. The biggest area for improvement is the gopher ball, being the only reliever on the staff to give up double digit home runs. He has to cut down on the long ball. 

Lopez's improvement as a closer is crucial as well. The O's and Twins clearly thinks he could be a lockdown closer and seeing him in person against the Angels, he has the stuff (although not the Stuff+ apparently) to be a closer but will he? 

Winder, historically thought of as a starter, if the Twins are thinking about continuing him on that trajectory or moving him to the pen, either way he needs to be part of the next wave of pitchers making a substantial contribution. 3 starters and Pagan will be free agents in 2024 so there will be holes aplenty. If Winder does move to the pen they need to start rebuilding how he approaches the game now but he needs to step up now to try and make the future more certain. 

[Boswell]

1.  Buxton needs to step up and hit 40 HR with 100 RBI plus 100 games in CF.  We’ve  finally cut bait with Sano, but the Buxton/Sano era is not finished. 
 

2.  Maeda needs to step up and start 25 G with 160 IP and an ERA below 3.30.  The Twins gave up a sweet reliever in Graterol.  Kenta had Cy Young type results in 2020, our last playoff season. 
 

3,  Polanco needs to be a leader at the top of the lineup.  Keep the line moving, work the pitch counts.  
 

4. Falvey and Levine need to step up and make two or three good trades.  We need more pitching and right-handed hitting.  Farmer, Vasquez and Gallo “could” be a good start, or just another group of underwhelming additions.  
 

5.  Rocco and the coaching staff need to step up or step aside.  The new health and conditioning guy from Oakland had better be the real deal.  Not sure about the capabilities of Pete Maki. 
 

6. Joe Pohlad (or is it Zachary?) needs to step up and put the payroll above $100 million.  Any team that pays out less than the “Cohen Luxury Tax Line” needs to ridiculed and required to sell all tickets and concessions at a steep discount. 

7.  Only veterans who have been with the Twins for at least three years are eligible to be called to “step up”.  They are the ones who have received opportunity and investment from the club and the fanbase - let’s see some dividends!
 

 

 

[Jeff D.]

Absolutely missed Kepler, Buxton and yes, the catching is a disaster. If Polanco declines in performance, then I believe it will be time to move on, but my feelings are that he is going to have an improved season in 2023.

If I could add........a non-player that must improve is our dugout leader Mr. Baldelli.

Go Twins!

[TopGunn#22]

Good Topic.  Certainly inspired good responses.  I would have only included Lopez from the initial three.  If he's anything like he was in Baltimore he's a huge compliment to Duran at the back end.  I think he rebounds.  I give a high five to Boswell for his comments and to those who mentioned Kirilloff and Larnach as well.  We need health in the starting rotation.  But the key for the Twins to me is Buxton.  If he's healthy and plays 140 games, those that said 35-40HR's and 100 RBI's are correct.  He's our most impactful player.  

[Doctor Gast]

Our biggest problem is health, part of it is luck & I think that part will get better. And other part is management which I hope will get better. Under those condition the whole team will get better. Hopefully Miranda will get better with Correa's mentoring but Jeffers is in a big rut, Vasquez can mitigate the problem by keeping Jeffers to face only LHPs. Under those conditions, Jeffers will improve yet his inability to throw out runners makes me wonder why FO consider him as our future. From the beginning of last offseason I was advocating to trade off Jeffers. We have no one close to the MLB in the organization (Cardenas has potential but he's far away, hopefully he'll materialize but this soon you can't depend on it). So I still advocate to trade Jeffers, we are wasting our time with him. We need to obtain an impact MLB ready catcher to sit under Vasquez.

[old nurse]

The people that need to step up their game is the pitching coaches. Even including Wes Johnson’s time who has really elevated their game here? Odo had regressed by the time he left. Bullpen failures galore. Ryan Presley is the only one.Even then he wouldn’t do as suggested until he left town.  All the relievers in the pen that really need to be better, do they need to do it on their own?

Kepler and Gallo have to prove the elimination of the shift will provide better BABIP for these two.  The FO seems semi rational about money matter. The only way signing Gallo to something of contract makes any sense is if the numbers show he was hitting the ball at the extra outfielder 

The Twins need the normal development of their young players, this includes Jeffers.  Jeffers has under 600 PA Same for Miranda, Larnach, Krilloff, and the bevy of starting pitching that got their feet wet last year

[Swing Batter-Batter]

20 hours ago, hitterscount said:

They need a lot more than three players to step up... if they pick up where they left off last season they pretty much need the entire team to step up. I was also surprised that they were so quick to bring Baldelli back, not many starters were happy with the quick hook that he utilized which most likely led to the BP failures, oh and the willingness to keep watching Pagan blow save after save when they had a legit closer all along.   

Agreed. Everyone keeps saying the Twins need to add a top notch starting pitcher. What pitching "ace" would want to play for Baldelli? Answer: None.

[JD-TWINS]

Lopez was not a good pitcher at any point in his career prior to first half of last year…..4 pitches - decent to plus stuff, not good results. Desperation move to bullpen in Baltimore last year…….don’t think he has mental makeup to pitch in majors at a high level. Why would Baltimore trade him with his level of success & his contract unless they didn’t believe the results? He also had 44 appearances with 55% of season gone in ‘22 - that’s a lot. Lopez & Pagan are mirror images, good stuff, no bulldog in them. They should both be rolled into trades with a bat like Kepler for whatever we can get. Can’t keep Gallo & Kepler with the 3 young left handed bats behind them.

#1 Joey Gallo - obviously can’t do what he’s done last couple years or he’ll be DFA’d…….Miranda’s production was & will be fine for this point in his career.

#2 Jorge Polanco……….Getting paid to play 130 games per year at 2B and drive in runs while getting near to 20 HR’s.

#3 B. Buxton & A. Kirilof………gotta play & play to capabilities. Buxton needs to hit .240 or more with 85 plus RBI & 33 plus HR. Kirilof needs to play 110 games and hit .270 plus with 50-60 RBI.

#4 Wildcard - Trevor Megill……..his plus curveball & 98MPH fastball need to yield better to dominant results 1 inning at a time!! He needs a 3rd “show” pitch to keep hitters from sitting on 1 of the other two. Change-up or cutter would make him devastating. Get to work with him!

Original Article Choices:

Miranda will be fine - López may not have the guts to pitch consistently in MLB, an insignificant piece for Twins - Jeffers is almost insignificant as well with Vasquez on roster so don’t understand this choice?

[JD-TWINS]

#5 Mahle - health & decent performance is necessary for Team success.

#6 Larnach - needs to step up and play 110 games & realize potential with teens HR’s & 50 plus RBI. Lots of DH at bats I believe.

#7 Maeda - need to feel his positive presence on the staff whether from the Pen (hopefully) or as a starter.

#8 Nick Gordon - he’s on a track to be an All-Star left fielder. Speed - doubles power - plugs holes on defense as needed -  .270 BA ……..walk a few more times and he’s a SOLID every day player for next 8 years!

[Whitey333]

Baldelli is number one improvement needed. IMO he has been mediocre at best.  He's a very boring manager that manages a very boring team to play even more boring baseball.  If they are always going to stick to the plan and are unwilling or unable to actually manage a game, then they should just set the laptop on the bench and let it manage lol.  This is one of the most boring baseball Twins team I've ever watched.  As they discussed about Pagan, it's the process not the results we are interested in.  It's obviously the same philosophy the whole FO has.  If they really don't care about winning and are only concerned about the process and not results, they should be fired.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, Boswell said:

Maeda needs to step up and start 25 G with 160 IP and an ERA below 3.30.  The Twins gave up a sweet reliever in Graterol.  Kenta had Cy Young type results in 2020, our last playoff season. 

Just to let you know you are asking 35 year old coming off of TJ surgery to things he basically has never done.

25 starts (he has done that 3 times), 160 innings (he has done that once) and have an ERA below 3.30 is something he only has done once and that was in 11 starts.

We are asking or hoping for things from Maeda that he has never been outside of 11 starts and more than likely never will be.  Just to put in perspective his 11 starts in 2020 weren't that much different than Smeltzer's first 9 starts last year.

 

 

[weitz41]

Hmm. It might be simpler to have a list that is Twins who played well last year and the other 20+ need to step up

1. Arreaz

1A. Duran

2. Gordon

3. Miranda

Everyone else...

[Boswell]

23 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Just to let you know you are asking 35 year old coming off of TJ surgery to things he basically has never done.

25 starts (he has done that 3 times), 160 innings (he has done that once) and have an ERA below 3.30 is something he only has done once and that was in 11 starts.

We are asking or hoping for things from Maeda that he has never been outside of 11 starts and more than likely never will be.  Just to put in perspective his 11 starts in 2020 weren't that much different than Smeltzer's first 9 starts last year.

 

 

Thanks for bringing my hopes for Maeda closer to reality.  
 

I do think he has the mentality and desire to be an every-fifth-day starter.  It remains open whether he will be a “Tommy John success story” or not.  I am hopeful that the extra rest in September will be promising for 2023.  

Maeda had 7 seasons in his home country with 26 to 31 starts, and 175 to 216 innings   Then 4 seasons with the Dodgers with 20 to 32 starts   We have had him for 11 starts in 2020 and 22 starts in 2021  

 

Yes, his most recent line is 6-5, 4.66 ERA and 106.1 IP (for the 22 starts)   So, a more reasonable “step up” would be 10-3, 4.00 ERA and 130 IP on 25 starts.  In any case, he’s a veteran entering his 14th season as a starter.

 

Would you prefer to look to Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle or Joe Ryan as the starter to “step up”?  Or do Falvey and Levine need to trade for Pablo Lopez or another top notch pitcher?

 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Boswell said:

Thanks for bringing my hopes for Maeda closer to reality.  
 

I do think he has the mentality and desire to be an every-fifth-day starter.  It remains open whether he will be a “Tommy John success story” or not.  I am hopeful that the extra rest in September will be promising for 2023.  

Maeda had 7 seasons in his home country with 26 to 31 starts, and 175 to 216 innings   Then 4 seasons with the Dodgers with 20 to 32 starts   We have had him for 11 starts in 2020 and 22 starts in 2021  

 

Yes, his most recent line is 6-5, 4.66 ERA and 106.1 IP (for the 22 starts)   So, a more reasonable “step up” would be 10-3, 4.00 ERA and 130 IP on 25 starts.  In any case, he’s a veteran entering his 14th season as a starter.

 

Would you prefer to look to Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle or Joe Ryan as the starter to “step up”?  Or do Falvey and Levine need to trade for Pablo Lopez or another top notch pitcher?

 

I don't think this FO thinks it needs a top notch pitcher, I think they believe the team can succeed with Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober and handful of other starters (SWR, Varland, WInder, Maeda, and Paddock coming back) pitching to 22 to 24 batters faced a game. While I disagree with that, that is the conclusion I have came up with. Bringing somebody else in means Gray or Mahle has to go and after what they gave up to get those two I can't believe they would do that.

[Major League Ready]

The players change for me if the list is strictly focused on 2023.  They are once again not going to be serious contenders so the guys I would put at the top of the list are the players with upside and the players under team control get more weight.  Their ability to contribute to building an actual contender is how I would define the most important to step up.  Here is my top 10.

1. Alex Kirilloff – He could be toast and he could be a #2-4 hitter for the next several years.  He is #1 for me.
2. Buxton – It would be easy to argue he is the most important.  Our win/loss record with or without him supports that argument.  The only reason I put Kirilloff first is that the range of value we might get from him is so immense.
3. Royce Lewis – I would not be opposed ranking Lewis the most important.  Superstar upside at a position that is begging for someone to step into.
4. SWR or Louie Varland or both – These two guys stepping up in 2023 would be a huge boost to this team for 6-10 years.   Having Ryan / Ober / SWR and Ryan under team control for the next 5-7 years would allow the team to spend big on one free agent SP instead of filling holes with the type of free agents we have seen for the last several years.
5. Jorge Alcala – We have not got much out of him yet but he has the potential to be a reliable high leverage RP.  He is under team control until 2026.
6. Larnach or Wallner – One of these guys stepping up and producing at a higher level than Kepler has given us would be big.    They would be above Alcala if considered separately but the fact there are two guys for one spot mitigates the importance the have individually.    
7. Josh Winder – Is he a ML pitcher or not?  He looked very good in the minors and he looked good in his first handful of starts.  Winder stepping up even in a BP role would be big for the next several years.
8. Austin Martin – Would be a great contributor if he follows the path of Royce Lewis after a great AFL league performance. 
9. Matt Canterino – He has the stuff to be an impact pitcher.  Will we get nothing or a great player.  Canterino stepping up in 2023 would be big.
10. Ryan Jeffers – Jeffers sure seems to have more potential and he is likely going to be here for several years in some capacity.