Looking Toward the Bullpen Market

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins primary goal of the offseason was to bring back Carlos Correa. Having failed on step one and having missed the opportunity on many other top free agents, the answer could be to pivot to the reliever market.

Image courtesy of Bill Vilona/Special to News Journal, Pensacola News Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC

In 2022, as has been the case several recent seasons, the Twins’ patchwork bullpen was an unmitigated disaster for much of the first half of the season. While their 3.68 bullpen ERA through the end of May looks fine and grades as middle of the pack, the 0.2 fWAR accumulated in that time was dead last in the entire MLB, and the team had blown six of their 13 save opportunities to that point. It was such an embarrassment that the front office was taking questions in every interview about reliever trades on the horizon despite the deadline being months away.

We’ve seen this cycle for two years now where the team insists they can build a bullpen with little investment. In both 2021 and 2022, they made one single somewhat notable relief addition that they saw as a value in Alex Colomé and Emilio Pagán, and in both cases it can be argued that there wasn’t another player as destructive to the team’s success as these two in their respective seasons. In both cases, by season’s end, the Twins had a respectable bullpen. In 2021 it was far too late as the Twins were out of contention. In 2022, the Twins were able to hang around despite countless crippling losses along the way.

In 2023, the Twins have a perfect set of circumstances to come to the conclusion that this cannot happen for a third year in a row. Having lost Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela, the Twins will be without two of their top four hitters in wRC+ from 2022. Some fans continue to cite better health and breakouts from young players to make up this gap, but every projection strongly disagrees. Also consider that while the Twins waited on Correa, just about every other impact free agent found a home elsewhere. The Twins are now left with $20-30m left to spend to get to 2022 levels and no everyday players to spend it on.

The goal now should be straightforward: Improve whatever areas of weakness you can. With a returning bullpen of Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar etc. the Twins should be in better shape in this regard than prior seasons. Still, filler arms such as Trevor Megill have a place, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Jorge Alcala who missed all of 2022 with elbow issues. There are also several intriguing arms remaining on the free agent market.

In true Twins fashion, they could take a flier on a bounceback candidate like Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel blew 5 saves in 2022 and was left off of the Dodgers postseason roster, but his “down” season still consisted of a 3.75 ERA, well over a strikeout per inning, .60 HR/9, and a mid to high 90s fastball. The Twins don’t need Kimbrel to come in and close despite his preference to do so. He may wind up having to take whatever deal he can to reestablish his value, and the Twins could use some upside in case someone like Duran stumbles or misses time.

They could also still use a second left-handed reliever to pair with Thielbar. They could gamble on longtime great Zack Britton who’s thrown just 19 innings the last two seasons but has always been death on lefties. They could also bet on 2022 breakout Matt Moore whose 1.95 ERA in 74 innings was simply dominant. 

There are several other situational or high upside arms remaining such as a reunion with Michael Fulmer to match up against right handed heavy lineups. They could throw money at once lockdown relievers Trevor Rosenthal, Corey Knebel, or Alex Reyes. They should reasonably have 1-2 spots in the bullpen pecking order to take a chance or two like this to try to avoid the early season meltdowns we’ve seen so many times.

While none of these arms are sure fire bullpen aces, one thing is for certain: the Twins have a lot of money to spend to get to 2022 levels which should absolutely be reached again. They also have little to spend it on for the rotation or position player side. Given how big of a problem the bullpen has been in recent years, that money would be better spent trying to avoid the yearly early catastrophe’s we’ve grown accustomed to. With how much they’ve lost from the lineup, they may not be able to afford it this year.

 

View full article

[Clear Lake Twinsfan]

Another lefty that I 'd add to your list is Will Smith. He has experience pitching late in the game which could leave Thielbar as the lefty for the middle innings, a role in which he did so well last year. 

 

[roger]

100% agreement on bringing in the best reliever available.  Unlike most of you I am happy with the starting rotation and the position players.  Reasonable health and this team could be good, very good.

As for spending more dollars, zero concern that their opening day payroll is equal to, greater or less than last year.  The only other needs I see are a veteran catcher for St Paul and a top catching prospect who is at least at AA.  If dollars are available and gotta be spent, spend them on extensions to a couple starters and probably Arraez.

[Richard]

We do need to bring in a back end guy for the bullpen.  What about the long relief role? We know the starters are probably only going to go 5 innings.  Maybe a guy like Ronny Henriquez wins the role in Spring Training? 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I’d add Brad Hand as a potential BP candidate.

[HrbieFan]

Would love to have Fulmer back. Would 3 years $27m get it done? 

[mikelink45]

Since I do not see us winning next year I would like to see us take the prospects and challenge them in the BP so we can build a future instead of investing in retreads.  Kimbrel is now signed, but I did not want him.  Lets start using our own talent and forget the Lopez, Pagan, Robles, Colome failures.  (I know we still have the first two and some of you believe in them - I don't). 

[twinfan]

I'm surprised the Twins didn't get Taylor Rogers back but another failure on management's part. Fullmer would be good and we still have a couple like Lopez who could bounce back. I wouldn't count on Thielbar continuing to get hitters out. The league is catching up to him and I don't expect him to continue his late career success. I'm not sure about Hand or Smith though I like Smith more. Britton could be a good answer if he is healthy as his stuff is nasty. Moore had a breakout season but who knows. Reyes might help but I'm not sure about any others. What about our closer of the future? The time is now.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Kimbrel was reported to have an agreement with Philadelphia on 12/23:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/phillies-to-sign-craig-kimbrel.html

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, roger said:

100% agreement on bringing in the best reliever available.  Unlike most of you I am happy with the starting rotation and the position players.  Reasonable health and this team could be good, very good.

As for spending more dollars, zero concern that their opening day payroll is equal to, greater or less than last year.  The only other needs I see are a veteran catcher for St Paul and a top catching prospect who is at least at AA.  If dollars are available and gotta be spent, spend them on extensions to a couple starters and probably Arraez.

Hand (need back up plan for Thielbar) & Fulmer for $17-$20 million/year total.

Kluber for another $7-8M for starter depth so Maeda can start in Pen for couple months.

On paper, our staff would be stacked! Extend Gray - Mahle - Maeda as deserved after May…..completely agree!

Everyday lineup is fine unless 3 guys get hurt & Larnach/Kiriloff are way over-rated.

[saviking]

Our starters can handle 5 innings. stack the bullpen like the best teams do. Obviously we don't have the money to stack the starting rotation so let's do the next best thing.

[Stew]

I wouldn't spend a ton now. But think Hand , Fulmer and  Smith would be good add ONS. Shouldn't take more than 22 million to sign the three. Leaving 20 plus million left over. Would either trade players asap. Like Kepler , pagain, maybe others. Or wait till trading deadline to see what might be available.

[JesusisLord7]

I think the bullpen is where the Twins could make the biggest impact. Even if we had to overpay. Think on how good K.C.'s bullpen was when the won the world series in 2015. Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera. Everyone will remember in history mostly Hosmer, S. Perez, and Moustakas but I think that bullpen was a bigger driving force. I agree with a few of you guys that another dominant lefty would help. Brad Hand or Will Smith. There aren't many of them unsigned so an aggressive offer by the Twins seems wise to me. 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, twinfan said:

I'm surprised the Twins didn't get Taylor Rogers back but another failure on management's part. 

Rogers got 3/$33 MM from SF. Management did not fail, they just did not overpay....

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, twinfan said:

I'm surprised the Twins didn't get Taylor Rogers back but another failure on management's part. Fullmer would be good and we still have a couple like Lopez who could bounce back. I wouldn't count on Thielbar continuing to get hitters out. The league is catching up to him and I don't expect him to continue his late career success. I'm not sure about Hand or Smith though I like Smith more. Britton could be a good answer if he is healthy as his stuff is nasty. Moore had a breakout season but who knows. Reyes might help but I'm not sure about any others. What about our closer of the future? The time is now.

A three year deal for a RP that was hurt the last two years is not a deal I'd make.....

[Mike Sixel]

At this point? I probably go with the young guys. This roster isn't constructed to win it all, I don't think. May was well see what they have. 

Also, guys with options allow them to send guys up and down when there are issues, whereas these guys don't. 

But, if they sign a couple, I'm also ok with that. 

[RJA]

Personally, if he is still available, I like Andrew Chafin.  Consistent performer over a number of years and would fit in well with this group.  

[MTV]

Maeda should start in the pen, let him warm up after Tommy John Surgery. Then: Jax, Pagan (I don’t like him but he was strong in the 6th/7th so don’t let him touch any inning after that), Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez and Duran. Megill has options, use them. You only need 1 high-end reliever, I’d go with either Corey Knebel or Andrew Chafin, both have good numbers and experience in the 8th/9th.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Richard said:

We do need to bring in a back end guy for the bullpen.  What about the long relief role? We know the starters are probably only going to go 5 innings.  Maybe a guy like Ronny Henriquez wins the role in Spring Training? 

I am expecting that Gray, Mahle & Ryan could give us some innings but I have more doubts about Maeda & Ober. I think a large long relief/ spot SPs of Maeda, Ober, Varland, Winder & SWR could be very beneficial by eating a lot of innings, plus taking pressure off the rotation & short relief. Sands & Ronny Henriquez could be rotating into the long relief role.

This spot SP/ long relief could also be very valuable for getting our prospects feet wet w/o putting too much strain on them. And at the same time keeping everyone fresh & strong throughout the season & ready for the post season. I'm happy Craig Kimbrel is off the board.

[TopGunn#22]

I would sign a LH (Moore or Britton, lean toward Moore).  I would package Theilbar and Kepler to the Yanks like BTV has suggested for Domingo German and promising outfield prospect Pierera.  German allows Maeda to begin in the BP.  Then sign Rosenthal/Alex Reyes.  So the Twins would end up with a LH & RH from Moore/Britton and Rosenthal/Reyes.  Each has closing experience so Duran doesn't have to should the entire load at the back end.  The Twins would still certainly need to employ plenty of their young pitchers throughout the long season, but with a pen like that (and I expect Jorge Lopez to bounce back strongly) we would have depth AND talent.  

[Doctor Gast]

6 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would sign a LH (Moore or Britton, lean toward Moore).  I would package Theilbar and Kepler to the Yanks like BTV has suggested for Domingo German and promising outfield prospect Pierera.  German allows Maeda to begin in the BP.  Then sign Rosenthal/Alex Reyes.  So the Twins would end up with a LH & RH from Moore/Britton and Rosenthal/Reyes.  Each has closing experience so Duran doesn't have to should the entire load at the back end.  The Twins would still certainly need to employ plenty of their young pitchers throughout the long season, but with a pen like that (and I expect Jorge Lopez to bounce back strongly) we would have depth AND talent.  

It'd be tough for me to give up Thielbar

[Doctor Gast]

I think FO had been pretty cocky in '21 & '22 where they thought they could pick up anyone & transform them into a BP star. Thus they thought they could let Rogers go & make Pagan shine in '22 & Colume' in '21.

[mnfireman]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think FO had been pretty cocky in '21 & '22 where they thought they could pick up anyone & transform them into a BP star. Thus they thought they could let Rogers go & make Pagan shine in '22 & Colume' in '21.

Pretty sure it was more about cost control and moving players while they still had value, especially after getting burned signing a reliever to a big contract.

[heresthething]

Whatever they do if the short starts are again the plan or required by what we have for SPs they have got to find or develop bullpen guys that can fit this system.  Can't say I have much confidence in this FO doing this based on the last couple of years and Baldelli has to find some medium ground on his approach or we are in for another long summer.

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

A three year deal for a RP that was hurt the last two years is not a deal I'd make.....

Agreed.  On Rogers, we should consider that he probably wanted to play with a different type of TWIN.    That would be his TWIN brother Tyler.  Not only was Taylor overpaid, but he got the familial benefit that our TWINS couldn’t match. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Andrew Chafin

Will Smith

In that order of preference.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Pretty sure it was more about cost control and moving players while they still had value, especially after getting burned signing a reliever to a big contract.

There's talk we need to sign a FA high end reliever, If we had extended Rogers it'd have been much cheaper. They blindly traded for Pagan believing he & Duffy could handle the job w/o realistically evaluating the outcome (I was absolutely against the trade from the beginning). Causing chaos  just because they wanted to save a few bucks.

Just because Rogers can't pitch regularly on back to back days doesn't make him worthless. Rogers got that $33MM/ 3yrs. because the league knows what he has & is willing to pay for it.

[mnfireman]

41 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

There's talk we need to sign a FA high end reliever

Mainly on TD