Rumor: A Potential Trade for Rafael Devers

[Richard]

While reading “3 Third Baseman Trades that Could Provide the Twins a Productive Bat” posted by Nate Palmer, I got a very interesting idea.  The first trade he proposed is one for Rafael Devers, which got me thinking…

The Minnesota Twins are in a unique place where depth isn’t quite a concern anymore.  If healthy, the Twins have six or so guys on the 40 man roster that could compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, and a crowded outfield littered with guys vying for the corner outfield and bench spots.  

The looming issue now is trying to wade through the marshes and finding the guys that can be impactful.  It is make or break years for guys like Alex Kirloff, Trevor Larnach, and Gilberto Celestino, all of which are entering arbitration soon.  If you take a step down, you’re welcomed by the likes of Matt Wallner and maybe Royce Lewis, who should be given an opportunity.  Then there’s also the question that arose when the Twins handed out a one year, 11 million dollar contract to Joey Gallo.  It almost feels certain that the Gallo deal will force Max Kepler out of Minnesota.  Kepler and Gallo are defensive difference makers but both are offensive liabilities.  Keeping both will pry valuable innings away from the aforementioned players, and the plus defense Byron Buxton offers in centerfield mitigates the necessity for strong corner outfield defense.  

One name that has been floating around trade rumors is Luis Arraez.  Although reports are connecting him to being involved in a deal for starting pitching, I believe one wouldn’t be too far fetched to think that he could be involved in a deal for a big name hitter.  The 2022 American League Batting Champion might have reached his peak value.  There’s no question about what kind of hitter he is.  Arraez will slap the ball all around the field, and he will get on base frequently.  However 2022 unveiled a flaw in his game.  When not being the designated hitter, Arraez was primarily penciled in at first and second base with an occasional appearance at third base.  The Minnesota Twins have a second baseman, Jorge Polanco.  The Minnesota Twins also might have their guy in first base, that being Alex Kirloff, who might be forced out of the outfield. So where would Arraez play?  Since the departure of Nelson Cruz in 2021 as part of the Joe Ryan trade, Rocco Baldeli has utilized the designated hitter role as a way for guys to get at bats without being in the field, almost acting as a mini rest day of sorts.  The designated hitter role could also be reserved for Byron Buxton, who hit there in 35 games in 2022.  

Arraez has entered his arbitration years and also has some concern about his ability to stay healthy.  He has been placed on the injured list five times since 2020.  A growing concern is his knees, which has caused 2 of his five trips to the injured list, with Covid-19, a concussion, and a right shoulder strain rounding out the other three.  With La Regadera only getting older, his knees will continue to get worse, trust me.

With Max Kepler and Luis Arraez on the “chopping block,” we can start to look for trades.  One name that has been floating around recently has been Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox (thanks to Nate Palmer for the idea).

The Red Sox do not have the best track record recently when it comes to retaining talent.  They traded Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers in 2020.  They traded Andrew Benitendi exactly a year later to the Royals in 2021.  Then in 2022 they lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency and ultimately to the Padres.  One similarity that can be drawn from all three moves is that they got paid once they left Boston.  Betts signed a 12 year, 365 million dollar contract with the Dodgers.  Benintendi received 8.5 million dollars in 2022 from the Royals.  Bogaerts just signed a 11 year, 285 million dollar deal with the Padres.  Rafael Devers will probably be the next homegrown talent to walk beyond the Green Monster, seeing as he will garner a contract somewhere in the twenty plus million dollar range.

The Proposal:

The Twins receive: Rafael Devers

The Red Sox Receive: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, A Player to be Named Later  

Why It Works for the Twins

Getting rid of Arraez and Kepler would be beneficial to the Twins long term.  Devers would become the starting third baseman which would force Miranda to slide over to first base, where he played 77 games in 2022.  First base would probably become Miranda’s long term home anyway, with reports stating the Twins front office has questions with his defense.  

Why it Works for the Red Sox

Unlike the Twins, the Red Sox do have some questions when it comes to outfield depth.  Enrique Hernandez has centerfield tied down, while Alex Verdugo (who was acquired in the Mookie Betts trade) will start in left.  Max Kepler would replace, funnily enough, former Twin Rob Refsnyder in defending Pesky's Pole.  Kepler’s plus defense would bode well in Fenway Park’s spacious and tricky right field.  Kepler might also see an increase in offensive production playing in the American League East, which is very left-handed hitter friendly.  

The Red Sox were plagued with a -52 runs differential in 2022.  They would benefit highly from a guy by the likes of Luis Arraez.  Heck, any team would.  Arraez would give the Red Sox a great presence in the designated hitter role and could allow Trevor Story to return to short while Arraez splits time at second with Christian Arroyo.  

If the Twins do make this trade, a 300 plus million dollar contract might make more sense.

Would y’all take this trade? What would you change?

Sorry for the long post.

View full rumor

[cmoss84]

This trade makes perfect sense...if the PTBNL is Lewis, Kiriloff, and Balazovic. He is going to be expensive. 

[dxpavelka]

13 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

This trade makes perfect sense...if the PTBNL is Lewis, Kiriloff, and Balazovic. He is going to be expensive. 

Actually, this trade makes perfect sense--If the PTBNL is Cy Young.  They finished last in the AL East standings and second to last in the AL in ERA.  They're not moving their most valuable chip without getting significant pitching in return.

[Doctor Gast]

Your article isn't too long, you did a good job.

"The Proposal:

The Twins receive: Rafael Devers

The Red Sox Receive: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, A Player to be Named Later "

Sounds about right, Richard, for a year of Devers. I agree with you that SPing isn't our major need, yet I don't believe 3B is (IMO an above avg. SS & a high upside MLB ready catching prospect is our major need).

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

First base would probably become Miranda’s long term home anyway, with reports stating the Twins front office has questions with his defense.  

While 3B is the more demanding position than 1B overall, the way I've interpreted the questioning of Miranda's defense has been that the Twins FO thinks he's better at 3B, in part because of lack of 1B experience.
 

If the Twins do make this trade, a 300 plus million dollar contract might make more sense.

This is suggesting a long-term deal for Devers, right?

Miranda aside, 3B is also a position where Royce Lewis or (especially) Brooks Lee is likely to end up if/when either of them moves off SS.
I still believe that one of Lewis or Lee can be the Twins' next non-stopgap starting shortstop, but it's maybe even safer to predict that the next longer-term starting third baseman is in the system and not far from the majors.
I suppose the plan for a team signing Devers long-term is likely that he'd go to 1B before long. Investing in a good player who's proven it at the MLB level is absolutely worth it sometimes, but still, it's hard for me to see the Twins prioritizing the corner infield spots if they want to invest in a big contract.

Rafael Devers will probably be the next homegrown talent to walk beyond the Green Monster

Boston is still capable of running a big payroll, even if they seem to be operating with a more budget-conscious mindset lately. They've let a couple of marquee players go; that also could indicate that they'll try harder to retain Devers, so fans still have part of the last core to cheer for.
 

It's an interesting proposition and I'm not trying to pick it apart! Just a few quick reactions as I read.

[Buenos_beisbol]

26 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

I suppose the plan for a team signing Devers long-term is likely that he'd go to 1B before long. Investing in a good player who's proven it at the MLB level is absolutely worth it sometimes, but still, it's hard for me to see the Twins prioritizing the corner infield spots if they want to invest in a big contract.

I do believe that a long term solution would be to move Devers to first.  He had a -2 OAA, with some questions about his overall defense.  My only question would be his in experience at first.  I don't really imagine that a large contract to a corner infielder is too fair out of the question.  I mean this front office gave an injury ridden and 34 year old Josh Donaldson a 4 year, 21mil a year deal.

[Richard]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Sounds about right, Richard, for a year of Devers. I agree with you that SPing isn't our major need, yet I don't believe 3B is (IMO an above avg. SS & a high upside MLB ready catching prospect is our major need).

I was just thinking that our major need was a balanced slash line.  I get the on base hitting, but why not get a guy that can hit .300 with 30 hrs? A Varland could be the name piece for a guy like Jorge Mateo.  

[Richard]

8 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

This trade makes perfect sense...if the PTBNL is Lewis, Kiriloff, and Balazovic. He is going to be expensive. 

Would you give up Balazovic for Devers? I wouldn't mind that too much.  Kiriloff wouldn't be a terrible idea either, as he is projected to probably end up at first.  I think Devers will eventually end up a first as well.  

[JD-TWINS]

Arraez can split time at 2nd & DH in Boston but he can’t do both of those things & play some 1B for the TWINS???

Polanco has bad knees as well - missed a bunch of time in ‘22 and has one year left on contract. Trading Arraez’ flexibility in the Infield along with a .313 lifetime (4 seasons) batting average seems nuts to me.

Trade prospects and guys we don care to have on our roster for pitching or pony up with a Free Agent pitcher or two - don’t trade away consistent productivity. (Keppler - Larnach - Celestino - Walner - maybe an unproven arm)

[Richard]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Polanco has bad knees as well - missed a bunch of time in ‘22 and has one year left on contract. Trading Arraez’ flexibility in the Infield along with a .313 lifetime (4 seasons) batting average seems nuts to me.

You're right! Thank you for bringing up Polanco.  That would work better for the Twins! An Arraez-Buxton-Devers lineup would be insane.  I do fear that Polanco would call for a Balazovic type arm, which would be worth it for Devers.

[Mike Sixel]

We are trading for one year of a player that they likely won't sign to a long term deal.

Why?

[Richard]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We are trading for one year of a player that they likely won't sign to a long term deal.

Why?

It's a year of a .300avg 30 hr guy who would be a great boost to the top of the lineup and has some defensive flexibility.  Not to mention that he was a part of the 2018 Red Sox who went on to win the World Series.  He has the post season experience and he knows how to get there.  Even a year with Devers could be enough to at least get us to the post season.

[darin617]

Not even close for what Boston could get for Devers.  Kepler & Arraez wouldn't be that attractive of trade chips for Boston. If you could merge the 2 into 1 player it would be great, A good hitting outfielder that is decent in the Outfield.

Not sure why everyone thinks Arraez is so great. He is best used at DH. Then you have a DH without power. Still confused why he isn't just thrown into the leadoff spot to make the starter work right away and let everyone else see shat he's got that day. Set the table early and hope for an early run.

Devers is also going to be a free agent and unless you can get a 24-48 hour window or so to try to sign a long term deal you just wasted "trade chips" for a rental.

I wouldn't be shocked if he gets moved because you would have expected Boston to be trying to sign him long term now or trade him for valuable controllable players and prospects.

[Richard]

2 minutes ago, darin617 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if he gets moved because you would have expected Boston to be trying to sign him long term now or trade him for valuable controllable players and prospects.

Who do you think would bring him to Minnesota? A Kiriloff or Larnach? Polanco?

[darin617]

34 minutes ago, Richard said:

Who do you think would bring him to Minnesota? A Kiriloff or Larnach? Polanco?

Boston would demand at least one prospect in the Twins top 3 prospects and a whole lot more than just "throw ins" like those 3. 

Besides the fact the Twins cannot trade for players with just 1 year of team control and Devers is like 26 or so and he will get a 12+ year contract after this season and most likely 35M+ a year.

Teams like the Met, Dodgers, and Yankees to name a few make trades like this because they feel they have a better chance at resigning the player.

[Mike Sixel]

45 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Not even close for what Boston could get for Devers.  Kepler & Arraez wouldn't be that attractive of trade chips for Boston. If you could merge the 2 into 1 player it would be great, A good hitting outfielder that is decent in the Outfield.

Not sure why everyone thinks Arraez is so great. He is best used at DH. Then you have a DH without power. Still confused why he isn't just thrown into the leadoff spot to make the starter work right away and let everyone else see shat he's got that day. Set the table early and hope for an early run.

Devers is also going to be a free agent and unless you can get a 24-48 hour window or so to try to sign a long term deal you just wasted "trade chips" for a rental.

I wouldn't be shocked if he gets moved because you would have expected Boston to be trying to sign him long term now or trade him for valuable controllable players and prospects.

I don't know.....

Three years of Polanco (above average 2B signed to a good deal)

Trade Kepler for a prospect in the 4-10 range for Boston.

A guy that should fill the back of your rotation for 6 years (Varland).

For one year of a player? 

Heck, they can likely deal Polanco for 2 good prospects if they really want. 

I'd do that if I'm Boston all day. Three years of Polanco and 6 of Varland is a lot of certainty compared to getting a couple highly rated prospects.

That said, if Boston is punting the next couple years, I'd rather get Lee and Varland than Polanco and Varland. But I think people are over-estimating what you can get for 1 year of a player (unless you are dealing with a team that is certain to extend him, like SD or Seattle or NYY).

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Not even close for what Boston could get for Devers.  Kepler & Arraez wouldn't be that attractive of trade chips for Boston. If you could merge the 2 into 1 player it would be great, A good hitting outfielder that is decent in the Outfield.

Not sure why everyone thinks Arraez is so great. He is best used at DH. Then you have a DH without power. Still confused why he isn't just thrown into the leadoff spot to make the starter work right away and let everyone else see shat he's got that day. Set the table early and hope for an early run.

Devers is also going to be a free agent and unless you can get a 24-48 hour window or so to try to sign a long term deal you just wasted "trade chips" for a rental.

I wouldn't be shocked if he gets moved because you would have expected Boston to be trying to sign him long term now or trade him for valuable controllable players and prospects.

Arraez would leadoff for any team not named Twins.

[SteveLV]

Devers much more likely to go to a team "on the brink" of championship to "put them over the top".

The fit for the Twins is virtually non-existent.  Only one year, probably can't extend him, Twins don't need a 3B, Twins don't need more left handed bats, etc., etc.

[tony&rodney]

Interesting thought but I cannot see any way this idea has even a remote chance. Falvey isn't interested and I doubt the Red Sox are either unless they get to pick any four from the Twins. Thus, no.

[Halsey Hall]

A huge no from me.  That would be about the worst trade we could make.  Both Arraez and Kepler should hit over .300 next year with no shifts.  

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Halsey Hall said:

A huge no from me.  That would be about the worst trade we could make.  Both Arraez and Kepler should hit over .300 next year with no shifts.  

Kepler over .300? I'll take the under. 

[darin617]

3 hours ago, Halsey Hall said:

A huge no from me.  That would be about the worst trade we could make.  Both Arraez and Kepler should hit over .300 next year with no shifts.  

The "experts" claim banning the shift will account for 10 more hits. SO that's not that huge. Of course some could get more hits.

[darin617]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Kepler over .300? I'll take the under. 

On base percentage maybe?

[mnfireman]

23 minutes ago, darin617 said:

The "experts" claim banning the shift will account for 10 more hits. SO that's not that huge. Of course some could get more hits.

Crash Davis:

“You know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball — a ground ball with eyes! — you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium. You still don’t know what I’m talking about, do you?”

[MABB1959]

What kind of team trades away their best player and Batting Champ?

[Richard]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

What kind of team trades away their best player and Batting Champ?

What about Polanco and a higher upside arm?

[MGM4706]

6 players vying for the 5 spot? How amusing. Every pitcher is vying for the 4 or 5th spot!! We need a 1, 2 and 3 spot pitcher.

And the people that keep throwing Larnach in as trade bait must not have been watching games! His range is 3 feet either way in the outfield and the league figured out he can't hit a curve ball! Just like Sano!! He has little value.

And for those asking why trade a Batting Champion? Because a singles hitting batting champion does not win you the division. Use him to get PITCHING that CAN win you a division!!

[jorgenswest]

23 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Arraez would leadoff for any team not named Twins.

Arraez batted first 91 times. Buxton led off 50 times. No one else more than 7. You could probably make the same comment about Buxton leading off for almost any other team. 

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Arraez batted first 91 times. Buxton led off 50 times. No one else more than 7. You could probably make the same comment about Buxton leading off for almost any other team. 

Facts, what are they good for?

[darin617]

19 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Crash Davis:

“You know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball — a ground ball with eyes! — you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium. You still don’t know what I’m talking about, do you?”

I guess your reading skills are a little slow today. There is quite a but of difference between 10 and 25. Also, most starters are getting closer to 600 AB so that also takes the number down with more AB. So try again...