The 5 Best Contracts that the Twins Missed Out on This Offseason

[Matthew Taylor]

Nearly all of the top free agents have been signed this offseason, none of them having landed with the Twins. But it’s not for a lack of good contracts. Let’s look at the five best contracts that the Twins missed out on this offseason.

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

 

There have been some contracts this offseason that the Twins have wisely passed on because of the economics. Many times, free agent contracts are inherent overpays and for a team like the Minnesota Twins, they don’t all make sense. Players like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Aaron Judge are great players but weren’t fits for the Twins.

On the other hand, there were plenty of free agent signings this offseason that made me go, “The Twins should’ve definitely made that deal.”

Here are my top 5, with the necessary caveat that the Twins might not have gotten these players by matching the exact contract that they signed for. The Twins may have needed to go 5% above what they were signed for in order to seal the deal, but either way these were contracts that the Twins missed out on (in no particular order).

1. Carlos Rodón - 6 years, $162M

Heading into the offseason, many Twins fans put Rodón at the top of their free agency wish lists. Rodón represented the ace pitcher that the Twins have been searching for since Johan Santana, and because of previous health trouble, he might sign for a reasonable contract that even the Twins could afford. Sure enough, Rodón signed for a more-than-reasonable 6 year, $162M with an AAV of $27M. Certainly a fair price for an ace the caliber of Rodón who provided $49.6M in value for the White Sox in 2022.

2. Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177M

Following the opt-out of Carlos Correa, finding a replacement shortstop was the top priority for the Twins coming into the offseason. In addition, this was one of the deepest free agent shortstop classes that we had ever seen. With the high caliber of shortstops, though, came some extravagant contracts. For my money the best shortstop contract handed this offseason was the 7 year, $177M deal handed out to Dansby Swanson. While Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa signed for double digit years, Swanson signed for a modest seven years at an AAV of just $25M.

3. Chris Bassitt - 3 years, $63M

While Carlos Rodón represented an ace that the Twins could have signed in free agency, we do know that the Falvey/Levine regime doesn’t like to give long contracts to starting pitchers. Enter Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is a solid number two pitcher who has drastically improved in his age 32 and age 33 seasons the past two years. Bassitt signed for a reasonable $63M on a short-term deal of just three years. Something the Twins definitely should have been in on.

4. Willson Contreras - 5 years, $87.5M

The biggest free agent signing that the Twins have made this offseason was for catcher Christian Vázquez on a three-year, $30M deal. While a reasonable signing, the deal that Willson Contreras signed with the St. Louis Cardinals was the best contract signed this offseason for a catcher. A $17.5M AAV for a 30-year-old catcher who is top-three at his position is more than reasonable. Contreras definitely was interested in signing with St. Louis, but with how low the payroll is, the Twins certainly could have gone above St. Louis’s offer and it still would have been a sound signing.

5. Noah Syndergaard - 1 year, $13M

As the old adage goes, you can never have too many starting pitchers, and another solid signing for the Twins this offseason would have been a one year deal for Noah Syndergaard. Since his injuries, Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominant self, but he’s still just 30-years-old and he was an above-average pitcher last offseason. Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status. And if not? It’s a one year deal and no harm done.

Which of the above deals do you think the Twins most missed out on? Were there any other deals that weren’t mentioned? Leave a comment and start the conversation.

 

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[old nurse]

Rodon for 6 years might be more than reasonable, might not. Might be Strasberg v2.0

Swanson was a 2-3 war player until his big contract year. History says they regress back to what they were. 

Bassit yup, did the FO inquire? Dunno. After pitching during lean years and pitching for a 100 win team was Bassit going to look for a contender? Was he interested in the Twins?

Thor wanted to sign somewhere to rebuild value. After being on the Angels I don’t think for a 1 year contract is was about money. 

[jjswol]

I guess we will have to wait and see how it all pans out.

[mikelink45]

Not sure on this, I will wait.  Since we did not sign them I can't speculate on whether we were wise or not, but time will make it clear.  In the meantime if we had signed this five we would all be ecstatic. 

[DJL44]

Zach Eflin - 3 years $40M for the Rays.

[Heistyman]

I don't personally love any of those deals.  Maybe Swanson but I think it was an overpay but we could have survived it.

Rodon - Injury Risk seldom has he made 30 GS

Swanson - Regression

Thor - Has lost velo since surgery

Bassitt - Age  related regression is possible

[MTV]

I definitely think we could’ve topped Rodon’s Contract, but the rest I’m not upset about. Swanson’s gonna regress, Bassitt was bad in the postseason and isn’t a true Ace, I like Vázquez so a Contreras miss isn’t bad, and Syndergaard wouldn’t have done anything more than be a slight improvement to Bundy.

[EGFTShaw]

If this is the list, then I feel the FO did their job. 

none of these really moved the needle enough to warrant the risk. 

I like Rodon but for fewer years and it really sounded like he was crushing on the Yankees so it would have taken more, probably much more to sign him. 

[Nashvilletwin]

 Bassitt and Tyler Anderson (3/$39) if we possibly could’ve attracted them (which is not clear).
 

Two veteran #2/3 equivalents both pitching 180 innings (FYI, Ryan had the most IPs for the Twins last year with 147; Gray had 120). Both likely to be better than Mahle and Maeda this year. Both would be solid anchors for the ‘24-25 window approaching - unlike in all probability Gray, Mahle or Maeda.  Paired with Ryan and the two winners of the Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, Balazovic bake-off that’s a very competitive starting staff for less than $40MM.

Alas, we wasted our time on CC and signed Joey Gallo instead. Oh well. 

[TwinsGM]

I only agree with Bassit and Sydnergaard.  We probably could have been in there for Bassit.  I'm curious where things are at with Eovaldi and if Eovaldi can be fetched for a contract similar to Bassit's contract.  Syndergaard probably took a big discount to return to LA.  The Contreras, Rodon, and Swanson contracts will be garbage in 2-3 years like the Donaldson contract

[Seansy]

Rodón and Correa are the two big FA targets I wanted the Twins to target this year.

 

Gausman last year.

 

Missed opportunities.

[HerbieFan]

It's all Monopoly money, but the two contracts I would have loved to see the Twins do if they hadn't been waiting with all of their eggs in the C4 basket are the Bassitt and Contreras deals.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

whole bunch of "meh" here. "should have been reasonable for the twins" yeah, and? there's just not much reasoning here other than "twins missed out on good players" without any idea if they wanted to be in minnesota, how much more it might have cost, etc. sometimes i think twins fans are just wired to be upset things *didn't* happen

[bloggymcbloggerson]

5 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

It's all Monopoly money, but the two contracts I would have loved to see the Twins do if they hadn't been waiting with all of their eggs in the C4 basket are the Bassitt and Contreras deals.

don't understand this at all. we have no idea how much the twins were in contact with other free agents while waiting on correa. none. and yet everyone wants to pretend like it's correa first, everyone else after. like every offseason when the first player the twins sign isn't the best they said, people cry "OH WAS HE REALLY A PRIORITY?" like cmon folks. we don't need to be upset about everything all the time.

[Beast]

You know the franchise’s PR machine has done their job phenomenally when their fan base thinks all of these deals are too risky.  Not only that - some openly applauding them for doing nothing (wow, what a bullet dodge).  Leaves me with so many questions.

What the heck are we even doing here then?  People just want to perpetually be in rebuilding mode, and only the sign the bottom-barrel, 0 risk deals? Why?  If you won’t sign premium players for top dollar, and won’t sign second tier player because their too risky….do you just never sign anybody? What are we saving the money for, exactly?  Do you think they’re adding it to the budget in the future?  Finally, what the heck do you expect to get for less in the free agent market?

[Brandon]

Bassit and maybe Contreras are the two we missed out on.  Though The Catcher we did sign will be a good value too.

[theBOMisthebomb]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

You know the franchise’s PR machine has done their job phenomenally when their fan base thinks all of these deals are too risky.  Not only that - some openly applauding them for doing nothing (wow, what a bullet dodge).  Leaves me with so many questions.

What the heck are we even doing here then?  People just want to perpetually be in rebuilding mode, and only the sign the bottom-barrel, 0 risk deals? Why?  If you won’t sign premium players for top dollar, and won’t sign second tier player because their too risky….do you just never sign anybody? What are we saving the money for, exactly?  Do you think they’re adding it to the budget in the future?  Finally, what the heck do you expect to get for less in the free agent market?

I'd rather take a risk on a multi-year contract rather than a one year contract with Joey Freakin' Gallo. It's about a 99.9999 percent chance Gallo is gone after one year. So, even if Joey brings back the glory years, takes a liking to the short right field porch in Target Field, and hits 40 bombs in 2023, he's most likely gone. I'm just not sure what that gets the franchise since they aren't a championship contender in 2023 (at least not yet).   

[mike8791]

Before we look at budget concerns, let's look at the 3 FAs the Twins could have signed;  Rodon, Abreu, and Contreras.  Yes, they would have vaulted the Twins over budget($160MM vs. 140-150 expected).   But if this team was serious about contending again in 2023, how do you feel about a lineup that included Abreu and Contreras and a staff ace with Rodon?  Ya think this team would be a favorite for AL Central title, at the very least.

Instead, this FO foolishly tied themselves to a CC signing that was never to be and in so doing, blew their chances for adding needle-movers.  Now, signing Vazquez instead of Contreras was not the killer, but missing out on a true ace and a middle-of-the-lineup guy sorely missing at present(unless you think Joey is the answer) seems to have sunk this team for next season.

Having missed out on a very good FA class, the talk is now of improvement by trades.  While this FO has done fairly well in the trade mart, does anyone think they can pick up difference makers without giving up same in guys like Arraez, Polanco, Gray  or Mahle?   Color me sceptical.  The one thing the FO should be doing from here on out is fortifying an average at best pen.  After Duran, what shutdown relievers can we count on? The 3 FAs who could really have helped, Jansen, Robertson, and Kimbrel are gone and with this FOs aversion to invest in established relievers, do we think next year's pen will be much improved over 2022?  Where we sit now, if the FO passes on reliever additions, they will be just as guilty of malfeasance as last year - a big reason we failed to advance to the playoffs.  Counting on injured players to produce solidly next year seems to be this FOs MO and with that continuing mindset,  2023 should mercifully be their last year in the TC.

[ossieO]

Kodai Senga for 5 years and $75M is a deal I would have taken. Although MLB Trade Rumors says he is "a potential 3rd or 4th starter" with a high 90s fastball, $15M is a fair deal for that.

[Mike Sixel]

Bassit is the one I'd want from that list. I would have preferred one of last year's starters.....

[Otaknam]

I think the FO will still make a deal of some sort with the free agents left over. Maybe Eovaldi? My fear is that they will make a trade using their best prospects like Lewis or Lee in search of a two year stop gap position player or starter, which was their MO last year. The team is in rebuilding mode and I’m not sure they know it or admit it.

[George Rownd]

“Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status” - what evidence is there that the Twins have any way to ‘tweak’ anybody? The Twins are not smarter than other teams, and have no ability to alter a veteran athlete’s performance (see Homer Bailey, Matt Shoemaker, Emilio Pagan, etc…)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, George Rownd said:

“Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status” - what evidence is there that the Twins have any way to ‘tweak’ anybody? The Twins are not smarter than other teams, and have no ability to alter a veteran athlete’s performance (see Homer Bailey, Matt Shoemaker, Emilio Pagan, etc…)

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[Seth Stohs]

I'd say I agree with the majority of comments in here. I don't think that the Rodon or Swanson contracts were some great deals that the Twins should have tried to top. I think Bassitt is the one contract listed that I think they maybe missed out on that is a decent deal... And that came with a Qualifying Offer. 

[darin617]

None of the listed deals are even the best "bang for the buck" deals that happened this winter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There weren't many/any "good" contracts handed out this offseason. But those are the realities of free agency and if a team is going to improve, they need to play in the same water as everyone else. Just pretending the baseball landscape didn't change is the one thing the Twins absolutely cannot do and that's exactly what they did this offseason.

[PatPfund]

The Rodon miss is a bummer. Yep, injury risk, but two healthy dominant years, and a key missing piece on this team in a position where there isn't an obvious answer coming up (decent pitchers maybe; ace, not in the next 1-2 years.

Would have liked Contreras, but CV is a solid answer to a big hole. Both on base talent, and championship experience.

Swanson was the best of the SS deals, but that is a low bar. (I'm guessing all of the Big 4 "winners" are going to deeply regret the second halves of their deals. If Swanson can keep hitting in the 120 OPS+ range (no lock), his D might hold up to make less than half of the deal a bad one. (And a smaller bad for less years.) Still, the Twins' top prospects play middle infield, and they shouldn't be blowing a decade of money for a one year solution on a position that doesn't age well, and where they have talent coming up. Way too many other needs where we don't have prospects.

The other starters are o.k., but how many #2-3 types and reclamations do we need on the 40-man? I would have been looking harder at good outfielders who can hit (and we missed on some of those too).

[Nine of twelve]

Keep in mind that free agency is not an auction where the high bid automatically wins. I expect that none of the first four subjects of this thread would have considered coming to Minnesota so discussion there is moot. And Syndegaard? Well, maybe, but signing this the type of pitcher in the past has resulted in many commenters vilifying the front office. And he'd be out the door next offseason anyway whether he succeeded or failed. So I don't fault the FO for staying away.

[Squirrel]

5 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I expect that none of the first four subjects of this thread would have considered coming to Minnesota so discussion there is moot.

You don’t know this. That is your speculation. Donaldson came here because, lo and behold, we offered the most. We don’t know and cannot know for certain what FAs will do when we don’t offer competitive contracts. Just because you have a low opinion of players wanting to play in Minnesota doesn’t make it true

[Coach Wheels]

This lost is a great list and more evidence of Falvey and LeVine doing nothing to make the Twins better. Come Feb well sign two arms or a bat that no one wants and pretend we've made our team better and deeper. It's a silly game they play and it will not help come April 1st. This team isn't better than Cleveland and probably isn't better than Chicago either. Another non competitive season, ?