Looking Ahead to Joe Mauer's First Hall Of Fame Ballot

[Cody Christie]

Next winter, Joe Mauer's name will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. Let's look ahead at the players that may join him in the hunt for Cooperstown.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

There are a variety of ways to examine a player’s Cooperstown case. JAWS is one way to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness as it averages their career WAR with their seven-year peak WAR. Jay Jaffe developed it to compare players' Hall of Fame candidacy across different eras. Some positions have fewer players currently elected to the Hall of Fame, which can skew the averages. However, JAWS provides a solid baseline for comparing a player's candidacy. 

Hold-Overs from 2023
Currently, voters are considering candidates for the 2023 voting cycle, and Ryan Thibodaux does a masterful job of tracking the publicly available ballots. Players must be listed on 75% of ballots submitted to be elected. Scott Rolen and Todd Helton are the two players tracking above 75%, but their support is not overwhelming. Rolen ranks as baseball's tenth-best third baseman, according to JAWS, while Helton ranks 15th among first basemen. Both players likely fall short of 75% as more ballots become available, resulting in both remaining on the ballot for the 2024 voting cycle, with some other strong candidates joining them. 

Strong First-Ballot Considerations
In recent years, some strong players have fallen off the ballot, but Mauer will join the ballot with some other players that will be Hall of Famers. Adrian Beltre is a lock to be elected next year. His accolades are nearly endless, and he is the only player in big-league history with at least 3,000 hits and 450 home runs among players who appeared in at least 50% of their games at third base. According to JAWS, Beltre only ranks behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, and Wade Boggs among third basemen. Beltre should be a nearly unanimous selection.

Chase Utley doesn't have the open and shut case like Beltre, but he is still among the all-time best second-basemen. He was one of his era's best players with some tremendous Phillies teams. His resume includes being a six-time All-Star and a four-time Silver Slugger with over 30 home runs and 100 RBI in multiple seasons. JAWS ranks him as baseball's 12th-best second baseman, with multiple players ranked behind him already inducted to Cooperstown. He won't be a unanimous selection, but he is a Hall of Fame-caliber player.

Catching Counterparts
For Mauer to be elected, many voters will compare him to other top catchers of his era. In recent years, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina have retired, and each has a strong case for the Hall of Fame. According to JAWS, Mauer (7th) ranks significantly higher than Posey (14th) and Molina (22nd). Molina's JAWS ranking has him behind catchers like Jason Kendall and Jorge Posada, who didn't get significant support in their HOF voting cycles. Like Mauer, Posey retired earlier than some of the all-time great catchers. However, he will likely garner enough support when he appears on the ballot for the first time in 2027. 

Mauer's accolades were significant during the years he could stay behind the plate. He was a six-time All-Star and a five-time Silver Slugger while winning three Gold Gloves. He is the only catcher in big-league history to win three batting titles, and he finished in the top 10 for AL MVP in four seasons, including winning top honors in 2009. He is the only catcher who started his career after 1930 to top the .400 mark in OBP in six seasons. Concussions forced him to move out from behind the plate, but his case is still strong enough for induction. 

Do you think Mauer will be a first-ballot induction to the Hall of Fame? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Karbo]

I sure hope he does get in 1st time. I think he deserves too anyway.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Let's talk baseball on Christmas morning?!? Yes, I love it. I don't believe Mauer will be first ballot Hall of Fame. I do believe he has a better than not chance of getting in within the first five years. Then, I plan to make my first trip to Cooperstown to celebrate watching a guy from playing in high school to the HOF. 

[arby58]

I think he'll get in, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it being on the first ballot. I've yet to see a baseball writer pen a scathing story/column about Joe Mauer the person. Given the stats are strong, my guess is they'd rather vote for him than some other worthy player who was more jerky toward their profession.

[MGM4706]

HOF - Yes. First Ballot No.

Tough for a singles hitter who couldn't produce a long ball when team needed it to be a First Ballot.

[TopGunn#22]

There is no doubt Joe will get in.  But first ballot honors are a high bar.  I think he gets in on his 2nd or 3rd try.  A great honor for a classy guy.  

[arby58]

39 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

HOF - Yes. First Ballot No.

Tough for a singles hitter who couldn't produce a long ball when team needed it to be a First Ballot.

He'll get in for being both a three-time Gold Glove winning catcher while also winning three batting titles and an MVP. He has a higher career OPS than Rod Carew mostly because of a higher slugging percentage. Carew was a first ballot HOFer.

 

[LanceJS]

Because many voters also use championships to measure a player’s worthiness (something I detest), the fact the Twins won exactly one playoff game during his career will hurt him, especially when compared to Posey’s three WS rings. That said, I think he gets in, but not first ballot. 

[strumdatjag]

Too soon to think about 2024..  I’m worried Torii Hunter will drop off the ballot with too few votes on the next go-around.  2023 is an  interesting year, since the bulk of the most controversial players of the Steroid Era are dropping off the ballot.  BUT A-Roid is appearing on the ballot for the first time.   Like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemons, the new T-Wolves owner would probably have put together an HOF career without the PEDs,   However, unlike Surly Barry and Lying Roger,  he is also a member of the media (maybe liked more by the writers than the less likable Bonds and Clemons).  
Carlos Beltran looks like he makes it on his first time. 
Too soon to talk “Joe”. 

[mikelink45]

No - his injury really harmed his career - He will eventually get in, but there is a weird psychology about getting elected in the first year that will stop him.  I do think he has a better reputation outside of MN, but I think he has a longer wait than we would like.  BR has these ratings for his HOF case:

Black Ink

Batting - 15 (198th), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink

Batting - 43 (746th), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor

Batting - 92 (203rd), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards

Batting - 41 (157th), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS

Catcher (7th):     55.2 career WAR | 39.0 7yr-peak WAR | 47.1 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162   Average HOF C (out of 16):     53.6 career WAR | 34.7 7yr-peak WAR | 44.2 JAWS | 4.7 WAR/162 Lack of power hurts him.  In BR similar batters you have to go to the bottom of the list to find HOF comps. Mauer's WAR gets him in if he was just a catcher, but as a 1B He does not make the list.  Going to numerous sites the arguments for him are good, but the odds continue to be low. It will be an intriguing situation and a lot depends on the rest of the ballot..

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Carlos Beltran looks like he makes it on his first time. 

Beltran looks doubtful on this year's early ballots.

[DJL44]

Mauer's case looks a lot like Ted Simmons. It took Simmons 32 years after he retired to get elected after failing to get 5% from the writers. Mike Piazza and Yogi Berra didn't get in on the first try so I would be surprised if Mauer did. Joe will get elected somewhere between year 2 and 27.

[JesusisLord7]

I say No. Beautiful game. But Hall of Famers win. I wonder how many playoff victories we had with Joe as a player. He never developed a power stroke either. I thought he should have hit the weights a bit more. Just being honest, he was my favorite player but always left me disappointed. 

[JesusisLord7]

I just looked it up. Minnesota Twins Zero wins and ten losses in playoff games with Joe Mauer. Enough said for me. 

[JesusisLord7]

Equal to the likes of Glenn Borgman, Butch Wynegar, Sal Butera, Marc Salas, David Engle and Matt Walbeck. 

[HerbieFan]

If Joe Mauer had played in New York he's a first-ballot HOFer.  As is, I wonder if enough voters are aware of a) just how good he was or b) the fact that concussions ended his time behind the plate too soon.  For 10 years he was the best catcher in all of baseball and the accolades should be enough to get him in...even if not on the first try.

[clubfan]

I always wanted Joe to succeed and want him to now with the HOF.  But the reason that Molina and Posey will get in ahead of him is because they are leaders and had playoff success.  For as talented as Joe was, he was not a leader, motivator, and was not clutch in big moments (see Kirby Puckett).

I think eventually he'll get in, but it may take some time.  Here's hoping its not Kaat and Oliva type of timeline.  

[Teflon]

But has another catcher ever done this?
Joe Mauer - Another Day at the Office

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

If Joe Mauer had played in New York he's a first-ballot HOFer.  As is, I wonder if enough voters are aware of a) just how good he was or b) the fact that concussions ended his time behind the plate too soon.  For 10 years he was the best catcher in all of baseball and the accolades should be enough to get him in...even if not on the first try.

Oddly enough, it seems Mauer has a more positive profile nationally. Possibly they weren't burdened with the ultra high expectations so they have a more reasonable summary of Joe's accomplishments post career. 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, clubfan said:

I always wanted Joe to succeed and want him to now with the HOF.  But the reason that Molina and Posey will get in ahead of him is because they are leaders and had playoff success.  For as talented as Joe was, he was not a leader, motivator, and was not clutch in big moments (see Kirby Puckett).

I think eventually he'll get in, but it may take some time.  Here's hoping its not Kaat and Oliva type of timeline.  

Ridiculous. Just because Mauer wasn't a loud guy who spent a lot of time talking to the media, doesn't mean he wasn't a leader. Remember, he was the guy who started giving out game balls to the team, something that clearly meant a lot on a young team trying to figure things out. Some guys lead by example, and Joe 100% did that.

Not clutch? His stats at bRef would disagree with you there too. He was always good with runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc.

He did not have playoff success. But he also had very limited opportunities, which is a strike more against his teams than him personally. Mauer was also the victim of one of the more horrendous blown calls in recent playoff memory...

I don't think he makes it on the first ballot, just because that's a high bar, but I wouldn't be shocked either. The national media never had the resentment towards Joe that some of the locals did (Dan Barreiro, are your ears burning?) and the numbers are there. Wish Joe had won a gold glove at 1B (he deserved one), because that might have cinched the deal. Personally, I think he's a no-brainer: 6 all-stars, an MVP, 5 silver sluggers, 3 gold gloves, 3 batting titles...what more do you need?

[HerbieFan]

2 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Oddly enough, it seems Mauer has a more positive profile nationally. Possibly they weren't burdened with the ultra high expectations so they have a more reasonable summary of Joe's accomplishments post career. 

Very possible.  Always been and "East Coast bias" in pro sports.  But it's true he may be more appreciated nationally,,,hopefully be those who fill out HOF ballots anyway!

[Heiny]

I don't hold much store in the HOF anymore, due to some of the players who are in that I don't believe should be, and also some who never even got a chance past the first year.  Kaat and Oliva having to wait this long was a travesty IMHO. But in the words of another former Twins catcher "However",  I know it is a huge deal to the players and if anybody deserves to get in, Mauer is among them.  A shoo in.

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Ridiculous. Just because Mauer wasn't a loud guy who spent a lot of time talking to the media, doesn't mean he wasn't a leader. Remember, he was the guy who started giving out game balls to the team, something that clearly meant a lot on a young team trying to figure things out. Some guys lead by example, and Joe 100% did that.

Not clutch? His stats at bRef would disagree with you there too. He was always good with runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc.

He did not have playoff success. But he also had very limited opportunities, which is a strike more against his teams than him personally. Mauer was also the victim of one of the more horrendous blown calls in recent playoff memory...

I don't think he makes it on the first ballot, just because that's a high bar, but I wouldn't be shocked either. The national media never had the resentment towards Joe that some of the locals did (Dan Barreiro, are your ears burning?) and the numbers are there. Wish Joe had won a gold glove at 1B (he deserved one), because that might have cinched the deal. Personally, I think he's a no-brainer: 6 all-stars, an MVP, 5 silver sluggers, 3 gold gloves, 3 batting titles...what more do you need?

Yes, the Gold Glove at 1B would have been quite a feather in the cap. My worst fear is that not getting that GG will lead Joe to have a Johan Santana type HOF case that gets dismissed too quickly. Johan lost a Cy Young to Bartolo Colon when he shouldn't have and it presumably cost his HOF case a lot of votes. 

[Whitey333]

First ballot is a tough gig.  Unlikely Joe makes it on the first ballot.  He should make it in the first 5 years.  He deserves to be a HOF member.

[Cornholio]

I believe Joe Mauer belongs in the HOF. However, if Joe DiMaggio and Harmon Killebrew, among others, don’t get in on the first ballot, no one should get in on the first ballot.

[old nurse]

If that double at Yankee Stadium would have been called correctly he would for sure be a first ballot

[h2oface]

If I had a vote, I would vote for him. If he had retired after he couldn't play cather anymore, he would be better off for the HOF vote. Playing at first to draw the rest of his salary and performing very non-hall worthy those years only hurt his case, and many will use those years for their reason why he didn't get their vote.

[Danchat]

9 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

If Joe Mauer had played in New York he's a first-ballot HOFer.  As is, I wonder if enough voters are aware of a) just how good he was or b) the fact that concussions ended his time behind the plate too soon.  For 10 years he was the best catcher in all of baseball and the accolades should be enough to get him in...even if not on the first try.

If Joe had some playoff success, then he'd have better chances. The Yankees would certainly give him more chances for that... instead, 0 playoff wins with Mauer in the lineup.

[nclahammer]

Chase Utley a HOFer?  Less that 1,900 career hits?   Hall of Fame?  Yes, for Joe Mauer the catcher.  No, for Mauer the firstbaseman.  You combine the two and you have a very good player over their career.  Playoff wins are much more a part of the team you are on , rather than the individual player.   Let's not have MLB become liek the NFl where a Super Bowl can get you in the HOF.

[arby58]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Mauer's case looks a lot like Ted Simmons. It took Simmons 32 years after he retired to get elected after failing to get 5% from the writers. Mike Piazza and Yogi Berra didn't get in on the first try so I would be surprised if Mauer did. Joe will get elected somewhere between year 2 and 27.

Simmons never won a gold glove - Mauer won three. Simmons had never won an MVP - he finished 6th, 9th, and 10th in his best years - Mauer finished 1st, 4th, and 6th in his best years. Simmons won one silver slugger award, Mauer won five. In terms of peak performance, they are not similar.