Twins SP Trade Ideas

[NebraskaTwins]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They've signed zero. That's intentional. They traded middling prospects for a guy with two years left, twice. Again, not their best, and not for long term fixes. 

So Zack Wheeler, for example, choosing to go to Philly after the Twins offered him more money was an intentional ploy to not bring impact pitching to Minnesota? Interesting. 
 

And the Twins have literally traded their very best pitching prospects twice in the last 4 years to bring in impact pitchers. One of which finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. Not to mention other top 10 prospects they dealt just in the last trade deadline. 
 

Not sure you have all the facts straight. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, NebraskaTwins said:

So Zack Wheeler, for example, choosing to go to Philly after the Twins offered him more money was an intentional ploy to not bring impact pitching to Minnesota? Interesting. 
 

And the Twins have literally traded their very best pitching prospects twice in the last 4 years to bring in impact pitchers. One of which finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. Not to mention other top 10 prospects they dealt just in the last trade deadline. 
 

Not sure you have all the facts straight. 

They have signed zero in 7 years. I guess that could be bad luck or no one wants to come to MN? I guess. It could also be that they don't want to pay the money and years for the top SPs. As for Wheeler, sure, that's one guy. What about all the other guys they didn't sign? 

I said they second paragraph in my first post, they trade for guys with 2 years left. I literally said that. Not sure what you are arguing there. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Given the comparative stats of Chris Flexen, Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker over the past two seasons, where would Taillon and Walker fit into the Twins rotation?

FIP is the best stat to predict future ERA. FIP predicts ERA better than ERA does.

Ober career FIP 3.94, 2022 2.92.

Paddack 3.94/1.72

Ryan 3,90/3.99

Mahle 4.28/3.87

Flexen 4.64/4.49

Taillon 3.8/3.94

Walker 4.19/3.65

so I’d Make it Gray, Ryan, Mahle,  Ober, Paddack,  Taillon 6, Walker 7, Winder, SWR, Flexen 10. 

[nicksaviking]

49 minutes ago, NebraskaTwins said:

So Zack Wheeler, for example, choosing to go to Philly after the Twins offered him more money was an intentional ploy to not bring impact pitching to Minnesota? Interesting. 
 

And the Twins have literally traded their very best pitching prospects twice in the last 4 years to bring in impact pitchers. One of which finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. Not to mention other top 10 prospects they dealt just in the last trade deadline. 
 

Not sure you have all the facts straight. 

I'm not sure what the argument here is. It's acknowledged that the Twins have traded prospects for decent pitching, but they aren't trading it for decent controllable pitching. Is this just supposed to be the plan every year? If they can't sign the free agents, don't they at some point have to trade for pitching that will be here longer than two years?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure what the argument here is. It's acknowledged that the Twins have traded prospects for decent pitching, but they aren't trading it for decent controllable pitching. Is this just supposed to be the plan every year? If they can't sign the free agents, don't they at some point have to trade for pitching that will be here longer than two years?

At some point, you have no prospects left to trade......if you do this every year.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

I would much prefer to target Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo (in that order) over Pablo Lopez.

Well maybe this isn't so far-fetched considering MLBTR is saying the Rockies and Marlins have discussed a move involving Brendan Rodgers and Cabrera.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/marlins-rockies-talked-about-trade-involving-edward-cabrera-brendan-rodgers.html

Arraez alone still wouldn't get Cabrera, but maybe the other pieces would be less than expected. Rodgers is a better fielder, and can probably still play SS if needed, but offensively they're similar and have the same number of control years. The one bonus Arraez has, is that he doesn't come with that leery feeling you get when removing a hitter from Coors Field.

[Mike Sixel]

At least Cabrera has more than 2 years of control left. Steamer and Zips don't love him, but they don't hate him either.....I have no idea if they are a good target, but I'd prefer his team control to Lopez's. 

[Steve Lein]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if others disagree WHERE he slots in, it's pretty indisputable WHEN he slots in.

If the Twins are truly looking at trades because Gray, Mahle and Meada are free agents after next year, why are they looking at trading assets for a guy who'll be a free agent the following year? I mean, is this really the dance we want to do every off season? Trade major assets for a guy with two years of control? Even if it costs more, the more judicious use of assets would be to trade for a guy you don't have to worry about for three, four or even more years.

This is also a good point. In my opinion, the Twins already have starting pitching depth. Now, that's all #3 or lower quality at this point, but it reinforces for me the idea that this isn't the type of pitcher they should go after. I agree with you completely.

[Steve Lein]

32 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well maybe this isn't so far-fetched considering MLBTR is saying the Rockies and Marlins have discussed a move involving Brendan Rodgers and Cabrera.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/marlins-rockies-talked-about-trade-involving-edward-cabrera-brendan-rodgers.html

Arraez alone still wouldn't get Cabrera, but maybe the other pieces would be less than expected. Rodgers is a better fielder, and can probably still play SS if needed, but offensively they're similar and have the same number of control years. The one bonus Arraez has, is that he doesn't come with that leery feeling you get when removing a hitter from Coors Field.

It kind of baffles me the values given by BTV for these guys. Lopez is worth significantly more than Cabrera, Meyer, or Luzardo, for some reason. I would think the years of control difference would more than make up for any stock placed in an established track record.

Don't get me wrong, it's not like I think Lopez is a bad pitcher, but having only those 2 years of control left is a big deal.

If Arraez is the guy you're trading, I want someone like Cabrera far more than Lopez.

[tony&rodney]

If Miami seriously has considered trading Cabrera and Luzardo, the Twins need to hop on this asap. The Marlins need a catcher, first baseman, and centerfielder. They need bats. Make it big - acquire both Cabrera and Luzardo for Jeffers, Arraez, Celestino, and Kepler. Substitute Larnach or Martin if necessary for Max. Do something. 

[Steve Lein]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If Miami seriously has considered trading Cabrera and Luzardo, the Twins need to hop on this asap. The Marlins need a catcher, first baseman, and centerfielder. They need bats. Make it big - acquire both Cabrera and Luzardo for Jeffers, Arraez, Celestino, and Kepler. Substitute Larnach or Martin if necessary for Max. Do something. 

The type of deal I want to see is something along the lines of:

Max Meyer
Edward Cabrera (Total Value 35.9)

for

Luis Arraez
Trevor Larnach 
Marco Raya 
Low minors lotto ticket (Total Value 46.30+)

I don't buy it's an overpay by the Twins, but Arraez is the best player in the deal according to BTV's values.

Heck, Dax Fulton is another name I'd be interested in from the Marlins, in place of either name above, for a deal like this, too.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Steve Lein

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, glunn said:

How about exploring a trade to get Chris Sale from the Red Sox?  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-soxs-chris-sale-drawing-trade-interest.html

If Eovaldi was too much risk relative to injury/availability, Sale certainly can’t be worthwhile as a FA, let alone a trade piece!

[SanoMustGo]

30 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Eovaldi was too much risk relative to injury/availability, Sale certainly can’t be worthwhile as a FA, let alone a trade piece!

Agreed, but our FO likes to trade for pitchers with injury risk.  They seem to think they can get them on the cheap.  That's worked well...LOL

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if the Blue Jays would be motivated to avoid the luxury tax and unload Berrios’ contract. The Twins have the space to take on the risk of what another team may begin to view as a bad contract. The Blue Jays might be wise to wait and see if they can help him turn it around. On the other hand they signed Bassitt who slots in as their number 3 with Berrios and Kikuchi at the back end. They also hope to get Ryu back after the All Star break.

Should the Twins risk buying low and taking on Berrios’ contract or Chris Sales contract? Anyone else fall in this category? I want to take the entire contract and possibly win any exchange of prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I wonder if the Blue Jays would be motivated to avoid the luxury tax and unload Berrios’ contract. The Twins have the space to take on the risk of what another team may begin to view as a bad contract. The Blue Jays might be wise to wait and see if they can help him turn it around. On the other hand they signed Bassitt who slots in as their number 3 with Berrios and Kikuchi at the back end. They also hope to get Ryu back after the All Star break.

Should the Twins risk buying low and taking on Berrios’ contract or Chris Sales contract? Anyone else fall in this category? I want to take the entire contract and possibly win any exchange of prospects.

They aren't trading berrios. 

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't trading berrios. 

And especially not right back to the Twins, which would be a PR disaster for them.

[cmoss84]

A little outside the box here, but what about Tyler Glasnow? Pretty sure the Rays won't want to pay him $25 mil next year. He is 29. Plenty of risk, but chance of getting a true ace. Not sure who it would take to get him. 

[jorgenswest]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't trading berrios. 

Probably not but they have the luxury tax and signed Bassitt. His contract is a lot of money committed to the back end of the rotation. If he has another bad year they won’t be able to give his contract away. I think it is possible they will listen. 

[dxpavelka]

# 3 all day & twice on Sunday.

[Malachi]

On 12/30/2022 at 12:20 PM, NebraskaTwins said:

The Twins aren't refusing to sign big time FA pitchers. They tried the last 3 or 4 years and those pitchers turned down the offer to go elsewhere. And they did trade some of their best prospects at the deadline last year? 

The closest to a "Big-Time pitcher" was like, dylan bundy, soooooooo

[Battle ur tail off]

On 12/30/2022 at 12:53 PM, NebraskaTwins said:

So Zack Wheeler, for example, choosing to go to Philly after the Twins offered him more money was an intentional ploy to not bring impact pitching to Minnesota? Interesting. 

Twins didn't offer him more money. Possibly they matched. He signed for 5/118. If we'd have offered 6/140 he'd be here on our staff. 

See this is the thing. At some point these guys have to figure out that if you want someone, being in the market you are, you have to blow the other teams out. Identify guys you really like and smoke the other offers and you will get them. 

Twins have always and continue to make token offers they know won't be accepted so they can look good to the fans and say we tried. Had they bucked this trend EVER, then I would consider your statement fact. As it is though, just looks like Twins propoganda. 

[Battle ur tail off]

PS 

Imagine this staff with Wheeler, Gray, Ryan, Mahle(maybe we don't trade for him though), and Ober/Maeda. That is a staff that can compete with anyone. 

WE TRIED THOUGH!!!

[NebraskaTwins]

On 1/4/2023 at 12:26 PM, Battle ur tail off said:

Twins didn't offer him more money. Possibly they matched. He signed for 5/118. If we'd have offered 6/140 he'd be here on our staff. 

See this is the thing. At some point these guys have to figure out that if you want someone, being in the market you are, you have to blow the other teams out. Identify guys you really like and smoke the other offers and you will get them. 

Twins have always and continue to make token offers they know won't be accepted so they can look good to the fans and say we tried. Had they bucked this trend EVER, then I would consider your statement fact. As it is though, just looks like Twins propoganda. 

Hardly Twins propaganda. They initially offered him 5/100 and reportedly would've gone to 6/130. That was reported several times. He told the Twins thanks but no thanks. His wife is from the east coast and didn't want to be in Minnesota. Period. 

I agree that the strategy needs to always be looked at but if you do that for every free agent that you do want, you won't have much left for filling other holes you may have given the presumably self-imposed ceiling of $140-160M payroll cap

[Parfigliano]

23 minutes ago, NebraskaTwins said:

Hardly Twins propaganda. They initially offered him 5/100 and reportedly would've gone to 6/130. That was reported several times. He told the Twins thanks but no thanks. His wife is from the east coast and didn't want to be in Minnesota. Period. 

I agree that the strategy needs to always be looked at but if you do that for every free agent that you do want, you won't have much left for filling other holes you may have given the presumably self-imposed ceiling of $140-160M payroll cap

I remember that about the wife being a hard no on moving to MN.  Didnt remember the reason.

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, NebraskaTwins said:

Hardly Twins propaganda. They initially offered him 5/100 and reportedly would've gone to 6/130. That was reported several times. He told the Twins thanks but no thanks. His wife is from the east coast and didn't want to be in Minnesota. Period. 

I agree that the strategy needs to always be looked at but if you do that for every free agent that you do want, you won't have much left for filling other holes you may have given the presumably self-imposed ceiling of $140-160M payroll cap

Bull on the 6/130. Had they offered that, or 6/140 like I suggested, he would be a Twin. I can google it and reports were we offered 5/100, again, a token offer they knew he wasn't accepting. Quit letting them play you. 

And that strategy does what I suggest in nearly all of my posts. If you identify guys that are studs, do what it takes to get them. Fill in the rest with your system guys. This goes for both trades and FA signings. Enough of the washups and mid to lower tier guys. I agree you can't do this with every FA you sign or trade you make, but I just feel like our system could fill many of the gaps that are left. Go for studs at all times. To hell with 4 and 5 starter candidates, infielders that were backups other places and outfielders that do the same thing as guys you already have in your system. Enough, lets try something different. 

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Enough, lets try something different. 

Agree, and that should include some major trades that include players who were on the roster last season; make a move.