What Would a Twins Rebuild Look Like?

[Nash Walker]

The Twins traded prominent prospects to improve the club at the 2022 deadline in an effort to win the AL Central. They fell short, Carlos Correa is gone and the future is in doubt. What if the Twins (gasp!) committed to an unacceptable youth movement? Let’s take a look.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

To go from offering Carlos Correa a 10-year, $285 million contract to a rebuild would be hard to fathom. It’s a really terrible time to break down the team, especially because the Twins haven’t won a postseason game since 2004. Even then, the Twins may decide this just isn’t working. What would it look like if they made that call?

Catcher
STARTER: Christian Vázquez
BACKUP: Ryan Jeffers

If the Twins were truly committing to a teardown, they wouldn’t have signed 32-year-old Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million deal. For the sake of the exercise, we’ll say Vázquez is in Minnesota to provide veteran leadership for the Twins’ hopeful catcher of the future in Ryan Jeffers, who is under team control through 2026. This part of the roster would likely go unchanged. 

First base
STARTER: Alex Kirilloff

It’s a make or break year for Alex Kirilloff. He’s missed extensive time since 2019 with wrist trouble, leading to a Hail Mary surgery that shut down his 2022 season. Kirilloff isn’t far removed from top-20, franchise-altering prospect status. In this blueprint, the Twins hand him the keys at first base with a runway to cement his place in their future plans. 

Second base
STARTER: Luis Arraez
TRADE: Jorge Polanco

With Kirilloff’s full-time move to first base, Luis Arraez shifts back to his original home at second. The Twins trade Jorge Polanco, under team control at modest salaries through 2025, for prospects and or young potential building blocks. Polanco and Arraez each have three years remaining on their deals but Polanco is 3-plus years older and therefore less valuable on a potential long-term extension. 

Shortstop
STARTER: Kyle Farmer
EVENTUALLY: Royce Lewis

As it stands, this is the current plan at shortstop for 2023. The Twins failed to land Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in free agency, setting up an Opening Day six-hole start for Kyle Farmer. In this scenario, Royce Lewis remains the team’s shortstop of the future, even after ACL surgeries in back-to-back seasons. 

Third Base
STARTER: José Miranda
EVENTUALLY: Brooks Lee

José Miranda is slated to start at third base following the Gio Urshela trade. It’s unclear whether Miranda can hold up defensively at the hot corner but luckily the Twins have insurance. Brooks Lee, their first-round pick from 2022, projects more as a third baseman than a shortstop. His arrival will come sooner rather than later. 

Outfield
STARTERS: Trevor Larnach (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Joey Gallo (RF)
BACKUP/PLATOON: Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino
TRADE: Max Kepler

Not much changes here other than Max Kepler’s departure in a trade for prospects. A rebuilding team likely wouldn’t sign Joey Gallo for $11 million but it’s not inconceivable. A strong year from Gallo could turn into a qualifying offer and an eventual draft pick for the Twins. Trevor Larnach gets full run in left field with Nick Gordon floating as a utility-man and Gilberto Celestino ready to rock as a backup.

Designated Hitter
PRIMARY: Matt Wallner

Matt Wallner hit .228 with a .709 OPS in a brief 65-plate appearance debut in 2022. He showed off some real raw power (93rd percentile max exit velo) but also a ton of swing-and-miss (39% K-rate). Wallner starts the season on the big league roster, regularly getting time at DH and in the outfield when he’s needed defensively. 

Rotation
STARTERS: Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Josh Winder
TRADE: Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray

The youth movement would likely show up most here, given the Twins have three veteran starters on expiring contracts. The one they keep is the youngest in Tyler Mahle, hoping he puts together a strong first half to raise his value in trade. The Twins deal Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda for prospects or young potential building blocks, opening the door for Louie Varland and Josh Winder on the Opening Day roster. 

Bullpen
CORE: Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, Evan Sisk, Simeon Woods Richardson (long relief)
TRADE: Emilio Pagán

The bullpen picture remains mostly in tact, with Emilio Pagán exiting via trade and Jorge Alcala re-joining the group. It’s possible the Twins would shop Jorge López in this scenario but his value isn’t exactly in tip-top shape. Caleb Thielbar would be another trade candidate with his contract expiring after 2024. 

Projected mid-season lineup (age)
1. Luis Arraez (25) 2B
2. Byron Buxton (29) CF
3. Alex Kirilloff (25) 1B
4. José Miranda (24) 3B
5. Joey Gallo (29) RF
6. Royce Lewis (23) SS
7. Trevor Larnach (25) LF
8. Christian Vázquez (32) C
9. Matt Wallner (25) DH

Projected mid-season rotation (age)
Tyler Mahle (28)
Joe Ryan (26)
Bailey Ober (27)
Louie Varland (25)
Josh Winder (26)

TRADED: Jorge Polanco (29), Max Kepler (29), Kenta Maeda (34), Sonny Gray (33), Emilio Pagán (31)

This is a mock of what a Twins rebuild may look like for the 2023 team. Drop your thoughts below.

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[Karbo]

Looks like a 70 win team. May be what they have to go to eventually though.

[Otaknam]

It’s hard to argue with how you constructed this roster. I think it is time for a tear down, which makes the trades during last season a big mistake. I’m not sure the FO understands this though. The FO was all in on trying to get to the playoffs last year and traded for starting pitchers who had injury concerns, which eventually occurred. That cost solid prospects and will make the rebuild take longer. The only thing that changes this trajectory is for young SP like Ryan, Ober, Varland or others to emerge as solid above average starters. It may be a make or break year for the FO. Hopefully they don’t panic and trade Lewis or Lee.

[Trov]

It really does not look much different than what we ran out there last year, minus CC.  If guys that were hurt can play this year, I would say it is actually an upgrade to what we did last year. 

[terrydactyls]

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Looks like a 70 win team. May be what they have to go to eventually though.

Eventually??  I've been advocating this approach since the off-season began!

[4twinsJA]

Rebuild to me means getting rid of experienced players and moving to young players. Twins only have 3 players with contracts past next year-Buxton, recently signed Vasquez, Dobnak and 2 more with team options after next year-Kepler and Polanco. Gray, Meada, and Gallo are in last year of contract. Twins have 2 entering last year of arbitration will be FAs after next year-Pagan and Mahle and 4 with 2 years of arbitration Theilbar, Farmer, Lopez, and Paddock. Agree, out of that bunch-Polanco, Kepler, Maeda, Gray, and Mahle have the most trade value, besides Buxton- hopefully Twins not trading him. Has the rebuild already begun?

[CTDookie]

Not a bad analysis, except it’s not clear where Miranda goes when Lee is ready to take third, and I don’t see how you trade Maeda before Opening Day when he hasn’t pitched in a real game in almost 2 years.

[miracleb]

I do like the way Vazquez  frames his pitches.  Last season, Sanchez literally caught the ball and then moved it to the strike zone.....instead of one smooth movement.  The rest of the team (above) really isn't a change at all as far as the starters are concerned and good luck getting fair value for Gray and you won't get anything for Maeda.......so there really is nothing to work with here as far as a re-build is concerned unfortunately.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would be ok doing something like this while also adding a good starting pitcher. Zero reason to not go for Pablo Lopez while also listening on both Gray and Maeda. Wouldn’t NEED to trade both pre-season, and that lineup/offense (if healthy) certainly wouldn’t be worse than last years team

[farmerguychris]

IF our season starts off rough quickly (like we did in 2021) I think we should move this direction quickly.  Trade people like  Gallo if can get anything for them and let the youth learn at this level.  Might not get many wins, but might also be fun to watch the guys we've been hearing about for years show their stuff and grow.

[PDX Twin]

What does the bench look like? Knowing the Twins, the starting lineup you propose will play half the season (less with Kirilloff, who may not play at all). Given that the other half of the season will be players worse than the ones you list, I'm guessing closer to 60 wins.

I'd say stick with the team we have, which could win 85-90 games with luck and health. Sounds like more fun than the eternal wait for a magical rebuild that never happens.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

a bad idea

 

[gman]

49 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Eventually??  I've been advocating this approach since the off-season began!

Me too. Actually last year.

[roger]

Interesting, however, the only player it makes sense to trade before opening day is Kepler.  Keep all the others for trades in July with the young guys working their way onto the team during the season.  The only thing missing in your projections going forward are the unknown players that would be coming back from the trades.  Gotta believe there would be a couple nice pieces.

[saviking]

Do everything except trading Gray and I'm all in. To me it's not a tear down, it's the team I have been dreaming about for years. Time to let the young kids have their day ..

[EGFTShaw]

First, as some have pointed out, you could consider them in a rebuild already.
Second, I am not making any moves until I see what is happening leading into July.

You're keeping Gallo, (I guess you have to since it is a one-year deal), and trading Gray.  I am not considering trading Gray until July.

I believe the Kids Are Alright.  Nothing against thinking about trading Kepler, (I like Max and the top-notch D, but at some point, when you're loaded with younger talent you need to think about what you can do and if he will ever improve as a hitter.  You are not getting a near major league ready prospect back though because of his hitting. But maybe it is a Duran type one that blossoms in a couple of years.

Polanco, my prediction this is an up year for him, (he on/off binary like a Swiss clock) may net you a better prospect at the trade deadline.

Maybe Gallo figures it out this year with the Twins and moves above the Mendoza line and is a valuable option to flip at the trade deadline if we are out of it. 

But I suspect that these Twins, that everyone seems so down on, as the currently constructed, are in the hunt for the Central lead if not leading it, when the trade deadline rolls around.

They aren't constructed to be a WS winner, may be not even a playoff series winner, (unless a pitcher or two steps up with the mentality to be that Guy), but I do think they have a shot at the Central Crown.

[gman]

Looks a lot like what a healthy 2021 would have looked like.

If Vazguez works well with young pitchers, I would not trade him. Jeffers may get closer to an even split this year, with an eye towards building Jeffers playing time in future years to 100-110 games per year.

Miranda may be more the fulltime DH by season ends or whenever Lee arrives. Although Miranda could backup Third/First base combined with DH duties. On a rebuild they could jump the gun on Lee a bit also

I think Polanco could wind up in Miami for a starting pitcher plus. Gray & Maeda could get some pretty decent prospects, although Maeda may have to start the year in the rotation to maximize his value..

I'd plan to trade Gallo in July unless he palys so bad he is untradeable. In which case if Wallner is ready i"d cut Gallo.

I think Wallner  and Celestino start next year in St Paul. Somebody will get hurt probably.

AsS ar as the rotation goes, I'd expect at least 1 if not more top pitching prospect in the upper minors or  maybe in Minnesota getting their feet wet.

Since we are playing for 24 and later, I don't care what next years wins are.

[Nashvilletwin]

Missing Julien and Martin. Both make their debuts this year. Gallo was waste for the strategy that will ultimately be embraced come mid-late June.

August Lineup (some IL overlap)

IF (6) Lee, Lewis, Julien, Arraez, Miranda, Farmer (need one adult)

OF (6) Buxton, Gordon, Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff, Martin

C (2) Vasquez, Jeffers

SP (5) Ryan, Ober, Winder, SWR, one of Mahle, Gray, Maeda (Varland and Balazovic will get plenty of starts too)

RP (8) Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, FA to be signed still this off-season (others will see innings too)

The last two months of ‘23 may be a dumpster fire, but a necessary one. We make the investment to see who are keepers and who is not. For ‘24-25 only three players off this list are making somewhat serious money (Buxton, one SP, and Arraez). Retool next off-season with 3-4 FAs. Fire Falvey, Levine, and Rocco.

BTW, any one but me wish we had signed Bassitt and Anderson to three year deals to bolster our rotation for ‘23-25 instead of goofing off with CC and Gallo?  We’d have at least two solid inning eating vets to go with Ryan plus the two winners of the Winder, Ober, Varland, SWR battle. We could even extended our choice of Gray, Mahle and Maeda. 

 

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't trade Polanco or Gray. Polanco because I think you'd be selling low and you can get more for him later. Also, he's still fairly young. I wouldn't trade Gray because he's likely to be worth a QO in the off season and SWR is the only other starting option after the players listed. I like the Ryan/Ober/Varland/Winder/SWR group, but that's basically it. With Mahle that's six and six isn't enough. The team doesn't have quite enough young bullets to waste shooting off Gray right now.

But otherwise, I'm on board trading the rest and I wouldn't even call it a rebuild. The young guys are already just as good if not better than the guys being traded away.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wouldn't trade Polanco or Gray. Polanco because I think you'd be selling low and you can get more for him later. Also, he's still fairly young. I wouldn't trade Gray because he's likely to be worth a QO in the off season and SWR is the only other starting option after the players listed. I like the Ryan/Ober/Varland/Winder/SWR group, but that's basically it. With Mahle that's six and six isn't enough. The team doesn't have quite enough young bullets to waste shooting off Gray right now.

But otherwise, I'm on board trading the rest and I wouldn't even call it a rebuild. The young guys are already just as good if not better than the guys being traded away.

Even rebuilding teams need veteran leadership.  Gray is also reasonably priced, no need to move him just yet.

I hope everyone sees that this "rebuilding" team that you are describing is pretty close to what we have.  

[nicksaviking]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Even rebuilding teams need veteran leadership.  Gray is also reasonably priced, no need to move him just yet.

I hope everyone sees that this "rebuilding" team that you are describing is pretty close to what we have.  

Agree, aside from the starting pitchers, the vets being proposed as trades, would also be proposed as trades on a team that won the World Series the year prior.

[mikelink45]

I'm in.  I like the looks and it is time to test the future.  If Larnach and Kiriloff can't make it this year we need to move on.  I do want Julien up.  I cannot help my negative Joey Gallo take - he does nothing for rebuild or whatever we are calling the current situation.

The pitching is thin as always, but lets see if there is hope in the prospects and trade the vets you list to get more and better prospects. 

[Dman]

Other than Kepler I think the team pretty much remains the same and they might even hang onto Kepler if they can't find the right return.  Will have to see how desperate Miami is to trade later on but if they want MLB players like Polanco or Arraez then those talks will be tough.

The Twins did a bunch of trading to get Maeda, Mahle and Gray I guess I don't know why they would give up on that now by trading them before the season starts.  Last years flawed and injury riddled team was in first place in the division for most of the first half.  I think they role with what they have and see how things develop.

Also if one or all of Maeda, Mahle and Gray have really good years they all could be QO candidates.  So any return would need to keep that in mind.  It could be that none of them are worthy of a QO as well but still it seems worth while to wait on rebuild scenario's until we see how this team as constructed works out.

[Twinkies are for eating]

Looks good to me. Depending on when Royce is able to come back, we may not regret losing Correa. But as a fan, I’m going to be pissed we didn’t take any of that $285 mil and get a pitcher. So, Heyman, don’t tell me the Pohlads aren’t being cheap!

[sjunisu]

I would much rather have a roster that looks like what you published here than what this FO has trotted out the last 2 yrs.  I am done with signings like Gallo, Shoemaker, Happ, Colome, Bundy, Archer, and the constant and numerous retreads Falvine has trotted out from the waiver wire that have provided absolutely nothing to build upon.   At least this would allow the organization to determine exactly what we have in the pipeline and provide some further prospects if the trades proposed would occur - as this team is nowhere close to serious contention.  Ability to give a final grade on the FO ability to create and form a minor league pipeline.  Let the leather meet the road.

[RJA]

Actually, Cleveland did a partial rebuild last year with young players and won the division--such is how weak this division is.  As presently constituted, the best possible scenario is that this team will sneak into the playoffs as a division champ in a weak division, and the worst is that they end up with 70-75 wins.  I see no realistic path for making any noise in the playoffs.  Therefore, I would add to the bullpen yet this offseason by signing two more relievers.  There still are some decent players left, and I think bullpen additions would allow us to have an excellent bullpen that would make up to some extent for not having a true ace in the rotation.  I would also play the kids, and see how they do by midsummer.  If the Twins are pretty much out of it, then trade some pieces for prospects and go into full rebuild mold.  Teams are always looking for pitching at the deadline.  If they surprise and the young kids really shine, then supplement at the deadline.  The one thing I would not do now is trade more prospects, or an Arraez or Polanco, for another rotation piece that has only 2 years control.  Makes no sense.

[harmony55]

If the Twins go the rebuild route, would Seattle's No, 30 competitive balance draft pick be enough to land one year of outfielder Max Kepler?

Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus trade values of $6.2 million to the draft pick and $5.8 million to Kepler.

The trade would leave the rebuilding Twins with the No. 5 and No. 30 picks in the June 2023 draft (and the Mariners would retain their No, 22 and No, 29 picks).

[HerbieFan]

Even if Correa had been brought back, the success of this team for 2023 and beyond was going to be determined by the development of most of the guys listed here.  So, I don't hate this whole idea.  I actually like having Vazquez to work with young pitchers.  If Gallo has a good first half, he could be moved for prospects.  I agree that a trade of Maeda shouldn't happen til mid-season to see if he can increase his value...cuz I don't think you're getting much for him now.

I feel like this scenario allows FO to see what they actually have with all of these young guys.  Maybe then they can make better decisions about what type of FA needs to be added for 2024.  And that's a BIG maybe.

[roger]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

First, as some have pointed out, you could consider them in a rebuild already.
Second, I am not making any moves until I see what is happening leading into July.

You're keeping Gallo, (I guess you have to since it is a one-year deal), and trading Gray.  I am not considering trading Gray until July.

I believe the Kids Are Alright.  Nothing against thinking about trading Kepler, (I like Max and the top-notch D, but at some point, when you're loaded with younger talent you need to think about what you can do and if he will ever improve as a hitter.  You are not getting a near major league ready prospect back though because of his hitting. But maybe it is a Duran type one that blossoms in a couple of years.

Polanco, my prediction this is an up year for him, (he on/off binary like a Swiss clock) may net you a better prospect at the trade deadline.

Maybe Gallo figures it out this year with the Twins and moves above the Mendoza line and is a valuable option to flip at the trade deadline if we are out of it. 

But I suspect that these Twins, that everyone seems so down on, as the currently constructed, are in the hunt for the Central lead if not leading it, when the trade deadline rolls around.

They aren't constructed to be a WS winner, may be not even a playoff series winner, (unless a pitcher or two steps up with the mentality to be that Guy), but I do think they have a shot at the Central Crown.

Like your thoughts, EGFT.  Got me thinking that it makes sense to keep most/all of the guys mentioned.  You never know, some good health and a few good years from Polo, Keps, Buxton and the starters and the Twins could be winning their division in July.  

On the other hand, should a few guys struggle and the injuries return, then do the trades you talked about at the deadline.

[Vanimal46]

Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if this was the lineup and pitching staff on August 1, 2023. I would also add Gallo to the trade list. The only reason he’s here is to see if he has a hot 3 months to flip him for a decent prospect.