How have pitchers drafted 2017 or later done?

[Mike Sixel]

This front office came on after the 2016 season. Their first draft was in 2017. The first year a player could even conceivably come up and play is 2019, but that's a stretch, isn't it? But, to be harsh, let's look at starting pitchers that have come up in the last four years!

For 2019, 2021, and 2022….I filtered on 50 innings pitched. For 2020, I filtered on 30 innings pitched. Let’s look a bit at each year.

2019.
28 rookie starting pitchers went at least 50 innings. Two were drafted after 2016, and one was an international signing. So, the Twins had a shot at three of them. 

2020
Uh, odd year, but what the hey. 19 guys pitched at least 30 innings as a starter. Two were international signings. Five were drafted after 2016. So the Twins had a shot at 7 of them.

2021
35 starting rookie pitchers went 50 or more innings. Three were international signings. 19 were drafted after 2016. Twins had a shot at 22 of them.

2022
32 rookies went at least 50 innings. 10 were drafted before 2017. The Twins had a shot at 22.

That’s it. This FO could have drafted (or signed an international player) 54 starting pitchers that actually pitched more than a handful of games as a rookie. Oh, and one of the ones this FO didn’t have a shot at is Griffin Jax. Another is Chris Paddock. Both of them are in MN. 

They do have Dobnak, Ryan, Winder, and Ober from that 54. So, now we are down 50 they didn’t get. I don’t have the time to analyze how many of those were drafted before the Twins even picked….so it is likely slightly less. Also, they do have to draft some hitters, they can’t just draft pitchers.

How many have other teams drafted and developed since 2017, you ask? Good question!

Nine teams have 3 or more rookie starting pitchers that have gone at least 50 innings in their rookie year drafted since 2016. MN is one of those, with 4. KC has 5, and ATL and Cincy have 4. Five teams have drafted a player that pitched at least 50 innings as a starter (drafted or signed after 2017). That’s it.

(actually, three pitchers have changed teams in that timeframe, so the numbers might be off a couple for a team or two).

How good have any of those rookies actually been, you ask?

I’m going to arbitrarily pick 4.5 ERA as the cut off. Of the 55 rookie pitchers drafted or signed after 2017….

29 pitchers had an ERA under 4.5 in that time as starters. All 4 MN pitchers were better than that as rookies. Atlanta has three. KC has three. No one else has more than 2. BTW, Cleveland has one. As does Tampa.

Let me know if you want more information. I have most of the data (only for their rookie years though).
 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Dobnak was counted in 2020, by they way....... I'm still trying to figure out an easy way to look at every pitcher drafted since 2017.....but I don't pay for subs to the sites that might give me that.

[Mike Sixel]

Of the players in the list in 2019 (all rookies, not those taken after 2016).....5 total are still with the team that drafted them and had at least one more year with an ERA under 4.5. That's it. Five players. Quite a few missed at least one full year to injury since then. Some are in the minors already. Many moved to RP. 

Only one of the three that came into the league after 2016 was good any year after that, and that was an international signing, which, let's be real, that wasn't happening in year one most likely (pro signing). That's it. One.

[chpettit19]

Some very interesting numbers here, thanks for putting that together! 

I think, generally speaking, we want to start seeing some arms reach the majors in the first 2 or 3 years after they've been signed/drafted since that's typically what the top end guys are able to do. My feeling on the Twins development situation (hitting and pitching) is that they've been pretty good at developing MLB players, but not stars. At least not healthy ones. And that's really been their downfall that has them in this terrible spot. They have some guys (mostly hitters) who have the chance to be above average players (which is what you need to win a WS), but we've spent basically 3 years waiting for them to arrive/establish themselves.

Prielipp arriving in 2024 would be huge. A couple of SWR, Varland, and Balazovic establishing themselves in 2023 would also be huge. This is the make or break year for me. I agree it's been unreasonable to suggest they should've had drafted and developed guys of their own established as stars by now, but we're deep enough in at this point that they need to have guys arrive and show they can be playoff quality pitchers. I think they've clearly upgraded the development system, but it's time to see some real top end talent establish itself, or it's time to start over. And I don't think they deserve the chance to start over so that means a new FO to me.

[Vanimal46]

What’s your conclusion looking at raw numbers of rookie seasons? Why did you choose to look at that specific sample? 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

What’s your conclusion looking at raw numbers of rookie seasons? Why did you choose to look at that specific sample? 

How else can we judge if they are bringing up pitchers at the same rate as other teams? By looking at players that debut after they got here. 

I haven't looked past the rookie year because that's a bleep ton of work. You have to figure out when a guy came up, then look at all his years after that .... And see when they were acquired. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Some very interesting numbers here, thanks for putting that together! 

I think, generally speaking, we want to start seeing some arms reach the majors in the first 2 or 3 years after they've been signed/drafted since that's typically what the top end guys are able to do. My feeling on the Twins development situation (hitting and pitching) is that they've been pretty good at developing MLB players, but not stars. At least not healthy ones. And that's really been their downfall that has them in this terrible spot. They have some guys (mostly hitters) who have the chance to be above average players (which is what you need to win a WS), but we've spent basically 3 years waiting for them to arrive/establish themselves.

Prielipp arriving in 2024 would be huge. A couple of SWR, Varland, and Balazovic establishing themselves in 2023 would also be huge. This is the make or break year for me. I agree it's been unreasonable to suggest they should've had drafted and developed guys of their own established as stars by now, but we're deep enough in at this point that they need to have guys arrive and show they can be playoff quality pitchers. I think they've clearly upgraded the development system, but it's time to see some real top end talent establish itself, or it's time to start over. And I don't think they deserve the chance to start over so that means a new FO to me.

At a glance, the majority come up three or more years after being drafted. But I have those numbers and can do the math. 

A huge percent of pitchers don't actually pitch all that well after their debut. Some due to injury.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Some very interesting numbers here, thanks for putting that together! 

I think, generally speaking, we want to start seeing some arms reach the majors in the first 2 or 3 years after they've been signed/drafted since that's typically what the top end guys are able to do. My feeling on the Twins development situation (hitting and pitching) is that they've been pretty good at developing MLB players, but not stars. At least not healthy ones. And that's really been their downfall that has them in this terrible spot. They have some guys (mostly hitters) who have the chance to be above average players (which is what you need to win a WS), but we've spent basically 3 years waiting for them to arrive/establish themselves.

Prielipp arriving in 2024 would be huge. A couple of SWR, Varland, and Balazovic establishing themselves in 2023 would also be huge. This is the make or break year for me. I agree it's been unreasonable to suggest they should've had drafted and developed guys of their own established as stars by now, but we're deep enough in at this point that they need to have guys arrive and show they can be playoff quality pitchers. I think they've clearly upgraded the development system, but it's time to see some real top end talent establish itself, or it's time to start over. And I don't think they deserve the chance to start over so that means a new FO to me.

I can't disagree with that take. But it is surprising how few teams have brought up great pitchers the last four years. 

[old nurse]

Coulda, woulda drafted players by the boatload?  How many of these player fall into the category of upper tier pitching? 

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

Coulda, woulda drafted players by the boatload?  How many of these player fall into the category of upper tier pitching? 

Almost none. That's my point. There aren't many top tier pitchers coming up drafted in 17-20. Expecting the Twins to do what almost no one else is doing is setting oneself up for disappointment. 

I'm not saying the Twins have been good or great. I'm trying to see how they do compared to the rest of the league. 

[Trov]

Thanks for putting in the work.  I fully agree with the point you are making.  Fans get upset we are not marching out top talent year and year out from draft and signings, but they are not looking at how other teams are doing.  If you are making the best out of the crap you have, you are doing actually well.  If you got the best pitcher out of a group, then even if they are not great, you still did better than everyone else in the same circumstances. 

[dxpavelka]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Dobnak was counted in 2020, by they way....... I'm still trying to figure out an easy way to look at every pitcher drafted since 2017.....but I don't pay for subs to the sites that might give me that.

I've been trying since Dobnak hit the big leagues if an undrafted college grad has ever hit the majors faster.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Almost none. That's my point. There aren't many top tier pitchers coming up drafted in 17-20. Expecting the Twins to do what almost no one else is doing is setting oneself up for disappointment. 

I'm not saying the Twins have been good or great. I'm trying to see how they do compared to the rest of the league. 

18 pitchers had an fwar greater than 4 last year. 8 of them were first round draft picks higher than 11. 4 were international signings, the other 6 later draft picks. It is difficult to find the very good pitchers. Worse yet, it can change year to year.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, old nurse said:

18 pitchers had an fwar greater than 4 last year. 8 of them were first round draft picks higher than 11. 4 were international signings, the other 6 later draft picks. It is difficult to find the very good pitchers. Worse yet, it can change year to year.

It does. Of the ones I listed in 2019....almost none have been good more than once since then and a lot are RPs or in the minors. 

I have wanted them to draft more pitchers in round one, or trade for more prospect pitchers.....so far, not feeling the love on what I want.

[old nurse]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It does. Of the ones I listed in 2019....almost none have been good more than once since then and a lot are RPs or in the minors. 

I have wanted them to draft more pitchers in round one, or trade for more prospect pitchers.....so far, not feeling the love on what I want.

In all likelihood after the first 10 or so draft picks in the first round pitching becomes a crapshoot.

[mikelink45]

Give us names - who are the best from this group and how many are Twins?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Give us names - who are the best from this group and how many are Twins?

That's hard to do, unless someone wants to look at a few hundred names and how they did from 2019 to 2022.....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Almost none. That's my point. There aren't many top tier pitchers coming up drafted in 17-20. Expecting the Twins to do what almost no one else is doing is setting oneself up for disappointment. 

I'm not saying the Twins have been good or great. I'm trying to see how they do compared to the rest of the league. 

It’s also why free agency is what it is, right?

supply vs demand. If aces grew on trees, 40 year old Justin Verlander wouldn’t get a 2 year 80m contract 

[mikelink45]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's hard to do, unless someone wants to look at a few hundred names and how they did from 2019 to 2022.....

I don't but I would love to see the results

 

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't disagree with that take. But it is surprising how few teams have brought up great pitchers the last four years. 

Pandemic threw off a lot of training. Some would say fickle ness of pitching injuries compared to the good old days but what used to be average was a lot less torque than what is average now. Ligaments can only take so much. Also consider the numbers of pitchers blooming later. It is not unusual for a pitcher to become dominate after age 27. There is no normal for pitching

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

It’s also why free agency is what it is, right?

supply vs demand. If aces grew on trees, 40 year old Justin Verlander wouldn’t get a 2 year 80m contract 

It's why I really wanted them to sign one if the elite pitchers last year. Imagine having someone better than Gray last year, and the next four 

[old nurse]

Needles in a barn full of hay. Finding a SP in the draft

in 2013 out of 20 pitchers in the first round, Jon Gray at number 2 Sean Manaea at 34 In rounds 2-10 out of 150 pitchers selected, in round 7 was Mahle

2014 was much better. 20 pitchers in round 1. Rodon 3, Nola 4, Freeland 5, Koepech33, Flarety 34. Rounds 2-10 out of 141  Webb round 4, Woodruff was round 11. 

2015 saw 18 pitchers selected in the first round Walker Buehler at pick 24. Rounds 2-10 saw 153 pitchers selected Brady Singer in round 2

2016 saw 22 pitchers in the first round Quantrel at 8,, Dakota Hudson at 34. Rounds 2-10 saw 142 pitchers selected Civale and Galen round 3, Burnes round 4, Bieber round 6 and Gonsolin in round 9

If my math is accurate that is 666 pitchers selected. 18 starters with an era+ over 100. If the pitcher did not have a couple of bwar I did not bother seeing how good they have been

[Beast]

Doesn’t that just support the folks who argue it’s folly to think the only way this team can compete is through the mythical “pitching pipeline?”  

Seems pretty unlikely that a team can create a steady stream of high-end major league pitchers from their system.  Seems like spending money on one occasionally is a good idea if you want to win a lot of baseball games.  That’s what I get out of that data.  There’s a very limited supply.  You need to pay up to get in on it.

I see you’re trying to defend the front office against those recently saying they’re not seeing this “pipeline” develop.  I get why.  You think they’re doing a good job.  Nothing wrong with that.  But, saying they’re not succeeding at it because it’s impossible isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the team employing that broken strategy for the last 30 years (is our biggest free agent pitcher still Ricky Nolasco?).